North Carolina at Syracuse - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Syracuse OrangeSyracuse logo
Friday, October 31st 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Carrier Dome - Syracuse, NY  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (20 - 3 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Syracuse -7   (SP+ SYR -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 22 - SYR: 29 (51)
SYR Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 516 miles
Orange (2 - 1) (1 - 1 - 1)
Coach Fran Brown (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 40 - 30 (47 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#90)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+6.548.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+11.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+9
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+4.5
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+7
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-6
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+1
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+9.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Syracuse vs Tennessee+13.553.5L 26 - 45ON
Sat 9/6 Syracuse vs UConn-7.057.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 9/12 Syracuse vs Colgate-37.564.5W 66 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 Syracuse at Clemson+17.555.5
Sat 9/27 Syracuse vs Duke-3.5
Sat 10/4 Syracuse at SMU+7.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Syracuse vs Pittsburgh+2
Sat 10/25 Syracuse at Georgia Tech+8.5
Fri 10/31 Syracuse vs North Carolina-7
Sat 11/8 Syracuse at Miami+22
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Syracuse at Notre Dame+15
Sat 11/29 Syracuse vs Boston College-1.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Syracuse's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#98 (.11)38% (105)2536% (116)2.73 (94)13041% (86)1494.15 (62)#43 (.05)38% (63)1932% (20)44% (98)1.73 (10)43.31.32
SYR#54 (.24)49% (35)39.754% (28)2.43 (114)10746% (54)3794.76 (39)#111 (.25)45% (110)29.749% (112)43% (90)3.81 (82)41.721
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
SYR#28 (.25)48% (14)45% (57)2.88 (98)8750% (5)3354.23 (38)#107 (.23)43% (91)42% (58)45% (114)4.29 (112)55.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense3252038.2%4.151.3142791301494.357%43%36%41%17%.11
SYR Defense329.72245.4%3.811 - - - - - 45%55%49%43%15%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense319338.2%1.732 - - - - - 47%53%32%44%14%.05
SYR Offense339.746.549%4.76227486107379342%58%54%46%17%.24

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina326:3013.733%67%443.31.3241.3034.1
Syracuse329:1226.744%57%4.741.72141028.9
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense357% (29)36% (116)30.7130.34.34 (79).1 (84)2.73 (94)67% (86)13% (127)1.13 (38)
SYR Defense345% (38)49% (112) - - - - .21 (112)2.73 (64)64% (50)6% (127)1.05 (90)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense347% (52)32% (20) - - - - -.13 (17)1.54 (4)86% (112)7% (106)0.82 (41)
SYR Offense342% (119)54% (28)36106.737 (38).04 (100)2.43 (114)74% (62)8% (51)0.61 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense343% (104)41% (86)13.321.7148.76.911.24 (72)2 (60).13 (106)1.6 (46)28% (49)30% (84).38 (58)4% (39)2.2 (42)
SYR Defense355% (102)43% (90) - - - - - - 2 (56).28 (90)1.5 (53)33% (69)30% (72).47 (111)9% (15)2.4 (121)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense353% (88)44% (98) - - - - - - 4 (12).21 (67)1.4 (44)33% (73)30% (75).27 (67)6% (56)2 (74)
SYR Offense358% (17)46% (54)27.743.3379.38.813.79 (13)3 (92).39 (50)1.6 (63)25% (20)31% (73).55 (32)9% (133)2.5 (11)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 3.75 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 3.75   Syracuse: 8.825

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 0.1   Syracuse: 4.6




Syracuse's Power Ratings
Syracuse's Power Rating: 8.825 #60
Syracuse's Offense Rating: 20.16 #32
Syracuse's Defense Rating: 12.11 #91
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Syracuse's 2025 Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6
Syracuse's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #57
Syracuse's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #34
Syracuse's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #80

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 3

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Syracuse 29
North Carolina 22


Total Points: 51

Syracuse Scoring
Offense: 39.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 46.5
Defense: 29.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

Syracuse's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/07North Carolina40Syracuse7North CarolinaNorth Carolina -9.5North Carolina59.0Under
202009/12North Carolina31Syracuse6North CarolinaNorth Carolina -24.5North Carolina67.0Under
201810/20Syracuse40North Carolina37SyracuseSyracuse -9.5North Carolina67.0Over
200309/06North Carolina47Syracuse49Syracuse
200209/07Syracuse22North Carolina30North Carolina
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Syracuse201 Overs
North Carolina332 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 12 - 10 - 0
Road Teams2 - 31 - 20 - 01 - 2

(#70) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 3.75 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Carolina has lost 4 straight
North Carolina has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff

North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)

North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatSYRUNC
OverallOver#35#42
OffenseOff#17#71
DefenseDef#80#30
Special TeamsST#60#72
PassingPass#22#62
RushingRush#71#100
Run BlockRBLK#27#46
Pass BlockPBLK#50#10
Route RunningWR Rt#16#71
TacklingTkl#13#27
Run DefenseR Def#95#37
Pass Rush DefPRush#57#35
Coverage DefCov#74#39

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Syracuse in 2023 (40-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carrier Dome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | SYR
Depth Chart: UNC | SYR
Rosters: UNC | SYR
(#60) Syracuse Info
Power Rating: 8.825 #60
Offense Rating: 20.16 #32
Defense Rating: 12.11 #91
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.6 #57
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.8 #34
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #80
Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Expected Record: 5.4 - 6.6

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 42%
Good Offense Success Rate of 49%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.76 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Avg Pass Success 46%
Avg OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 45%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Syracuse has lost 5 straight
Syracuse has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 0 - 1 vs Spread)

Syracuse Notes
(8/18) QB1 Steve Angeli (ND) wins starting job
(5/23) Cuse were 7-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/7) OL 2/5 back, Avg LY. 2 more have exp, Petry inj
(4/17) Fr OL Washington is 6'7, 380 lbs and can move.
(4/17) Top WR Pena in portal, big loss. Some depth
(4/8) QB Rickie Collins (So, LSU) named starter
(3/21) RB rebuild. Any ballers? On paper, not obv
(3/21) Def bad LY, returns a lot. DE/CB big needs
(3/21) HC Brown/staff great job in year 1
(3/21) Yr 2 much harder sched, less proven options

Syracuse Highlights
Syracuse is Undefeated at Home
Syracuse is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

Syracuse does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#28)

Syracuse Secondary is very good (#15)

Syracuse Deficiencies
Syracuse has a bad TO Margin (#116)
Syracuse Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Syracuse Can Not Run the Ball (#119)
Syracuse offense is not Explosive (#109)
Syracuse does not Sack the QB (#112)
Syracuse has a bad defense (#110)


  
North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez315359%343316.5
Max Johnson91182%103109.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June2320018.750
Giovanni Lopez277412.712
Caleb Hood154613.19
Davion Gause154312.912
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp10149214.939
Chris Culliver489122.351
Javarius Green688014.739
Jake Johnson43218.011

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Simpson (Tr)224100
Khmori House (Tr)182010
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)162100
Kaleb Cost130000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)82220
Andrew Simpson (Tr)224100
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)162100
Joseph Mupoyi (Tr)20010
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)80003
Marcus Allen80003
Jaiden Patterson60001

Syracuse's OC Jeff Nixon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Steven Angeli7912464%1073828.7
Rickie Collins (Tr)4667%651110.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Yasin Willis3413944.118
Will Nixon3012914.328
Jaden Hart62804.79
Tylik Hill220010.012
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Darrell Gill Jr.12269222.443
Dan Villari16199012.426
Justus Ross-Simmons9159317.753
Johntay Cook II (Tr)12121110.129

View Syracuse's Full Roster
Syracuse's DC Elijah Robinson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gary Bryant III (Tr)161000
Darian Chestnut150002
Demetres Samuel Jr.130004
Chris Peal (Tr)111001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Jobity Jr.52100
Braheem Long Jr.61101
Jamie Tremble11100
Gary Bryant III (Tr)161000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Demetres Samuel Jr.130004
Antoine Deslauriers80002
Darian Chestnut150002