North Carolina at Syracuse - 2025 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Syracuse OrangeSyracuse logo
Friday, October 31st 2025 (7:30 PM EDT)
Syracuse -1.5 (45.5) (-115)  Open: 0.0
North Carolina 27 - Syracuse: 10  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
Game in Dome
Our Line: North Carolina -7.5  (SP+ UNC -6.5)

Projected Score: UNC: 26 - SYR: 19 (45)
SYR Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
UNC Travel: 516 miles
Orange (3 - 9) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Fran Brown (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 20 - 35 (22 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
 
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+7.545.5L 18 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+12.551.5L 16 - 17UY
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+1.545.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-8.541.5W 20 - 15UN
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.537.5L 12 - 28ON
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+6.550.5L 25 - 32ON
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+7.048.5L 19 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Syracuse vs Tennessee+13.553.5L 26 - 45ON
Sat 9/6 Syracuse vs UConn-7.057.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 9/12 Syracuse vs Colgate-37.564.5W 66 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 Syracuse at Clemson+17.553.5W 34 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Syracuse vs Duke+4.059.5L 3 - 38UN
Sat 10/4 Syracuse at SMU+17.556.5L 18 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Syracuse vs Pittsburgh+9.554.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 10/25 Syracuse at Georgia Tech+17.552.5L 16 - 41ON
Fri 10/31 Syracuse vs North Carolina-1.545.5L 10 - 27UN
Sat 11/8 Syracuse at Miami+28.547.5L 10 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Syracuse at Notre Dame+36.551.5L 7 - 70ON
Sat 11/29 Syracuse vs Boston College+2.554.5L 12 - 34UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Syracuse's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#120 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (111)10539% (97)1843.33 (108)#79 (.18)41% (58)24.542% (63)40% (50)3.58 (62)62.61.31
SYR#127 (.03)38% (119)20.241% (95)2.61 (125)12335% (125)2172.98 (123)#128 (.28)45% (119)34.945% (99)46% (120)4.15 (113)54.91.90.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
SYR#28 (.25)48% (14)45% (57)2.88 (98)8750% (5)3354.23 (38)#107 (.23)43% (91)42% (58)45% (114)4.29 (112)55.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
SYR Defense1234.928.845.4%4.150.8 - - - - - 47%52%45%46%13%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
SYR Offense1220.221.837.7%2.981.9193401232173.447%52%41%35%19%.03

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Syracuse1230:2819.435%47%6.254.91.90.84.81.6027.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (84)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (111)64% (117)11% (112)0.8 (126)
SYR Defense1247% (32)45% (99) - - - - .11 (77)2.92 (77)64% (24)8% (111)1.04 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (37)42% (63) - - - - .14 (90)2.72 (35)89% (134)10% (68)0.99 (90)
SYR Offense1247% (90)41% (95)36.2123.13.412 (88) (121)2.61 (125)70% (83)11% (105)0.87 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (57)39% (97)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (102)31% (57)28% (90).26 (86)6% (59)1.8 (130)
SYR Defense1252% (112)46% (120) - - - - - - 5 (55).44 (131)1.5 (61)29% (106)33% (111).48 (132)5% (98)2.1 (94)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (59).32 (78)5% (90)2 (54)
SYR Offense1252% (42)35% (125)19.234217.36.411.317 (30)15 (132).1 (124)1.6 (55)33% (92)24% (124).12 (128)8% (129)2.1 (44)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -2.61  #79
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 4.36  #96
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 6.97  #61
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.1  #97
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.3  #125
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9  #62

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -2.61   Syracuse: -12.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -8.1   Syracuse: -14.4




Syracuse's Power Ratings
Syracuse's Power Rating: -12.9  #131
Syracuse's Offense Rating: -4.56  #136
Syracuse's Defense Rating: 11.84  #91
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Syracuse's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Syracuse's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.4  #120
Syracuse's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1  #116
Syracuse's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #111

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 26
Syracuse 19


Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 24
Syracuse 19

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 25
Syracuse 22

Total Points: 47
Syracuse Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.8
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

Syracuse's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/31Syracuse10North Carolina27Syracuse -1.5North Carolina45.5Under
202310/07North Carolina40Syracuse7North Carolina -9.5North Carolina59.0Under
202009/12North Carolina31Syracuse6North Carolina -24.5North Carolina67.0Under
201810/20Syracuse40North Carolina37Syracuse -9.5North Carolina67.0Over
200309/06North Carolina47Syracuse49
200209/07Syracuse22North Carolina30
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Syracuse201 Overs
North Carolina443 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 32 - 22 - 20 - 0
Road Teams3 - 32 - 20 - 02 - 2

(#79) UNC at (#131) SYR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCSYR
Power RatePwr #79 #131
SP+SP+ #97 #120
Perf GradeGrade #81 #127
OffenseOff #108 #122
DefenseDef #36 #127
Spec TeamsST #71 #111
TalentTal #17 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #49
North Carolina Notes
(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report
Syracuse Notes
(10/31) QB1 will be Joseph Filardi, a freshman w/ 1 snap
(10/31) QB Filardi cannot play at all. Cuse have 0 QBs
(10/24) Backup QB Collins bad, Fr Carney can't run offense
(9/21) QB1 Angeli out for season (Achilles)
(9/20) Off torched Clemson, Def played well. Huge Win
(9/20) Can't say enough about HC Brown, great job
(8/30) Def torched by Vols, Angeli Ok, run game bad
(8/18) QB1 Steve Angeli (ND) wins starting job
(5/23) Cuse were 7-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/7) OL 2/5 back, Avg LY. 2 more have exp, Petry inj
(4/17) Fr OL Washington is 6'7, 380 lbs and can move.
(4/17) Top WR Pena in portal, big loss. Some depth
Syracuse Injury Report
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffSYR Def
Perf GradePerf #108 #127
SuccessSuc #115 #119
ExplosiveExp #118 #106
PPAPPA #120 #128
PowerPwr #96 #91
SP+SP+ #125 #111
Pts POPPO #108 #113
HavocHav #95 #113
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffSYR Def
Run GameRun #122 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #99
Run ExplRExp #126 #107
PPAExp #130 #77
Run BlockR Blk #84 -
OL YdsOLY #111 #77
Stuff RateStuff #66 #44
TackleTak -  #65
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffSYR Def
Pass GamePass #102 #88
Pass SuccessPSuc #97 #120
Pass ExplPExl #102 #61
PPAExp #92 #131
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #53 #108
F7 HavocF7 #112 #111
DB HavocDB #59 #98
Syracuse on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSYR OffUNC Def
Perf GradePerf #122 #36
SuccessSuc #119 #58
ExplosiveExp #95 #61
PPAPPA #127 #79
PowerPwr #136 #61
SP+SP+ #116 #62
Pts POPPO #123 #62
HavocHav #125 #89
Syracuse Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SYR OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #106 #34
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #63
Run ExplRExp #115 #90
PPAExp #121 #90
Run BlockR Blk #92 -
OL YdsOLY #125 #35
Stuff RateStuff #68 #98
TackleTak -  #54
Syracuse Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSYR OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #123 #69
Pass SuccessPSuc #125 #50
Pass ExplPExl #55 #17
PPAExp #124 #51
Pass Block/RushP Blk #122 #36
F7 HavocF7 #105 #68
DB HavocDB #129 #90
Program Comparison
SYR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carrier Dome
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 41° - Wind: 23 mph
Rematch from Week 10
Syracuse -1.5 (45.5)
North Carolina won at Syracuse this year (27-10)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Syracuse in 2023 (40-7)

  
UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez17026165%17471056.7
Max Johnson548762%437205.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall (Tr)7127423.918
Davion Gause6125834.225
Giovanni Lopez8613331.517
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Kobe Paysour35438112.544
Demon June1715919.472
Javarius Green13150011.539

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khmori House (Tr)733161
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
Will Hardy512000
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
Tyler Thompson268711
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
C.J. Mims (Tr)413200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen352108
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)202006
Jaiden Patterson332005

SYR's OC Jeff Nixon (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rickie Collins (Tr)9718154%10426105.8
Steven Angeli9715563%13171028.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Yasin Willis12955344.341
Will Nixon10743234.028
Tylik Hill2412905.415
Rickie Collins (Tr)5412612.324
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Johntay Cook II (Tr)47559211.959
Darrell Gill Jr.32506515.843
Dan Villari39412010.635
Justus Ross-Simmons20312515.653

View Syracuse's Full Roster

SYR's DC Elijah Robinson (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gary Bryant III (Tr)535110
Antoine Deslauriers483102
Braheem Long Jr.422202
Chris Peal (Tr)392007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Jobity Jr.206501
Jamie Tremble103320
Braheem Long Jr.422202
Denis Jaquez Jr.195220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Peal (Tr)392007
Demetres Samuel Jr.371007
Darian Chestnut350003