North Carolina at Boston College - 2024 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Boston College EaglesBoston College logo
Saturday, November 23rd 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
North Carolina -2 (50.5) (-125)  Open: -3.5
Boston College 41 - North Carolina: 21  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Boston College -2.5   (SP+ UNC -4)
Projected Score: UNC: 25 - BC: 27 (52)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
UNC Travel: 612 miles
Eagles (7 - 6) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bill O'Brien (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (34 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 North Carolina at Minnesota-2.052.5W 19 - 17UN
Sat 9/7 North Carolina vs Charlotte-21.547.5W 38 - 20ON
Sat 9/14 North Carolina vs North Carolina Central-37.557.5W 45 - 10UN
Sat 9/21 North Carolina vs James Madison-10.048.0L 50 - 70ON
Sat 9/28 North Carolina at Duke-1.055.5L 20 - 21UN
Sat 10/5 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh+2.563.0L 24 - 34UN
Sat 10/12 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech+3.560.5L 34 - 41ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 North Carolina at Virginia+3.558.5W 41 - 14UY
Sat 11/2 North Carolina at Florida State-2.550.5W 35 - 11UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 North Carolina vs Wake Forest-10.564.5W 31 - 24UN
Sat 11/23 North Carolina at Boston College-2.050.5L 21 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 North Carolina vs NC State-2.554.5L 30 - 35ON
Sat 12/28 North Carolina vs UConn-2.053.5L 14 - 27UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 7, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 4, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Boston College's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/2 Boston College at Florida State+16.550.0W 28 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Boston College vs Duquesne-33.552.5W 56 - 0OY
Sat 9/14 Boston College at Missouri+14.551.5L 21 - 27UY
Sat 9/21 Boston College vs Michigan State-4.545.5W 23 - 19UN
Sat 9/28 Boston College vs Western Kentucky-7.548.0W 21 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Boston College at Virginia+2.052.5L 14 - 24UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/17 Boston College at Virginia Tech+8.547.5L 21 - 42ON
Fri 10/25 Boston College vs Louisville+7.054.0L 27 - 31OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Boston College vs Syracuse-5.551.5W 37 - 31OY
Sat 11/16 Boston College at SMU+19.054.5L 28 - 38OY
Sat 11/23 Boston College vs North Carolina+2.050.5W 41 - 21OY
Sat 11/30 Boston College vs Pittsburgh-3.550.5W 34 - 23OY
Sat 12/28 Boston College vs Nebraska+3.047.5L 15 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Boston College's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)30.947% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)28.144% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
BC#89 (.16)41% (93)28.241% (96)2.87 (99)16441% (78)1764 (58)#56 (.15)42% (74)23.840% (40)44% (104)3.64 (51)401.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
BC#89 (.16)41% (93)41% (96)2.87 (99)16441% (78)1764 (58)#56 (.15)42% (74)40% (40)44% (104)3.64 (51)401.21.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1330.927.242%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2
BC Defense1323.820.742.2%3.641.8 - - - - - 45%55%40%44%16%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1328.120.840.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
BC Offense1328.234.140.9%41.2183401641764.356%44%41%41%13%.16

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Boston College1329:2517.843%50%4.2401.21.84.72330.3
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)
BC Defense1345% (12)40% (40) - - - - .05 (33)2.84 (43)82% (120)9% (96)0.92 (40)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
BC Offense1356% (26)41% (96)38.2164.24.322 (55).01 (120)2.87 (99)72% (79)9% (53)0.86 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)
BC Defense1355% (123)44% (104) - - - - - - 16 (10).23 (67)1.4 (12)32% (71)29% (43).2 (26)7% (36)1.8 (22)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
BC Offense1344% (108)41% (78)13.922.2176.27.912.724 (38)7 (26).34 (29)1.9 (7)30% (50)32% (68).34 (68)4% (12)2.3 (11)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.53 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -1.53   Boston College: 4.395

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 5.0   Boston College: 1.2




Boston College's Power Ratings
Boston College's Power Rating: 4.395 #51
Boston College's Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Boston College's Defense Rating: 8.62 #58
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Boston College's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Boston College's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #70
Boston College's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #62
Boston College's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #56

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Boston College 27
North Carolina 25


Total Points: 52

Boston College Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.1
Defense: 23.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.7

Boston College's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Boston College41North Carolina21Boston CollegeNorth Carolina -2Boston College50.5Over
202010/03Boston College22North Carolina26North CarolinaNorth Carolina -14.5Boston College52.5Under
201310/26North Carolina34Boston College10North CarolinaNorth Carolina -10North Carolina0
200911/21Boston College13North Carolina31North Carolina
200810/25North Carolina45Boston College24North Carolina
200511/05North Carolina16Boston College14North Carolina
200412/30North Carolina24Boston College37Boston College
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Boston College221 Overs
North Carolina511 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 33 - 01 - 02 - 0
Road Teams3 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 1

(#68) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: -1.53 #68
Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26% #22
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Carolina has won 3 straight
North Carolina has won 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 3 - 2 (2 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

North Carolina Notes
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?

North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)

North Carolina Defense Sacks the QB a lot

North Carolina has a good pass defense (#98)

North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina pass game is really bad (#86)
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatBCUNC
OverallOver#40#51
OffenseOff#54#56
DefenseDef#26#77
Special TeamsST#93#9
PassingPass#39#82
RushingRush#74#13
Run BlockRBLK#25#29
Pass BlockPBLK#35#47
Route RunningWR Rt#80#67
TacklingTkl#35#36
Run DefenseR Def#23#65
Pass Rush DefPRush#55#56
Coverage DefCov#49#83

Rematch from Week 13
North Carolina 2.0 (50.5)
Boston College won vs North Carolina this year (41-21)

Previous Matchups
Boston College beat North Carolina last year (41-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alumni Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | BC
Depth Chart: UNC | BC
Rosters: UNC | BC
(#51) Boston College Info
Power Rating: 4.395 #51
Offense Rating: 19.12 #75
Defense Rating: 8.62 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.2 #70
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.0 #62
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7 #56
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Poor Run Success 41%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.64 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Boston College has lost 1 straight
Boston College has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Boston College Notes
(11/18) Good fight @ SMU, QB James/Rgame meh, Def OK
(11/14) QB Castellanos entering the portal
(11/13) Rgame 321 yds, 6.7 ypc, att only 13 pass in Cuse W
(11/12) QB Cast. benched, James to start vs SMU
(11/8) No Kicking game, att only 1 FG, missed XPs
(10/17) Run D mauled by VT 368 yds, 9.2 ypc. Rgame bad
(10/6) Off bad, Rgame awful, 3 TO's in L @ UVA
(9/28) OG by WKU, Off awful w/ QB James. 3 TOs to W
(9/27) QB Castellanos out vs WKU (und inj)
(9/23) QB Cast. much improved. 10 TDs, 2 Ints so far

Boston College Highlights
Boston College is Undefeated vs Spread as Home Underdogs

Boston College defense does not give up big plays (#74)
Boston College commits very few Penalties (#38)
Boston College defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#87)

Boston College Deficiencies


  
North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)18632058%24591567.7
Conner Harrell213757%282217.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2811660155.975
Davion Gause6732644.921
Jacolby Criswell (Tr)7110331.520
Charleston French108418.445
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones36582616.253
John Copenhaver40414410.435
Omarion Hampton3837329.849
Kobe Paysour21365017.436

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Geoff Collins
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Lane744102
Power Echols732126
Amare Campbell699632
Jakeen Harris (Tr)671004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beau Atkinson3512840
Kaimon Rucker308631
Amare Campbell699632
Desmond Evans3410591
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alijah Huzzie364218
Power Echols732126
Jakeen Harris (Tr)671004

Boston College's OC Will Lawing
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Grayson James (Tr)10616664%1202627.2
Thomas Castellanos9916162%13661858.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kye Robichaux175744104.341
Treshaun Ward (Tr)7740625.336
Jordan Mcdonald (Tr)5336136.841
Turbo Richard5527825.130
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Lewis Bond67689310.349
Reed Harris17486428.672
Kamari Morales (Tr)28325611.654
Jeremiah Franklin27311311.534

View Boston College's Full Roster
Boston College's DC Tim Lewis
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KP Price812115
Donovan Ezeiruaku761914141
Daveon Crouch747233
Carter Davis431003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donovan Ezeiruaku761914141
Quintayvious Hutchins296480
Owen Stoudmire294320
Daveon Crouch747233
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
KP Price812115
Ryan Turner (Tr)132104
Amari Jackson180004