App State at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview

App State Mountaineers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (5:15 PM EDT)
North Carolina -18 (58.0) (0) Open: 0.0
North Carolina 40 - App State: 34

Mountaineers (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Shawn Clark (28 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 27 (29 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#34)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Carolina -11 (SP+ UNC -7)
Projected Score: APP: 25 - UNC: 36 (61)
UNC Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
APP Travel: 149 miles

Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (41 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
APP Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

App State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	App State vs Gardner-Webb	-22.5	51.0	W 45 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/9	App State at North Carolina	+18.0	58.0	L 34 - 40	O	Y
Sat 9/16	App State vs East Carolina	-7.5	48.5	W 43 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/23	App State at Wyoming	+3.0	45.0	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/30	App State at UL Monroe	-13.5	50.5	W 41 - 40	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/10	App State vs Coastal Carolina	-4.5	59.0	L 24 - 27	U	N
Sat 10/21	App State at Old Dominion	-6.0	56.0	L 21 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/28	App State vs Southern Miss	-16.0	55.5	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/4	App State vs Marshall	-3.0	57.5	W 31 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/11	App State at Georgia State	+2.5	62.5	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	App State at James Madison	+10.0	56.5	W 26 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/25	App State vs Georgia Southern	-7.5	62.5	W 55 - 27	O	Y
Sat 12/2	App State at Troy	+6.5	51.5	L 23 - 49	O	N
Sat 12/16	App State vs Miami (OH)	-6.5	41.0	W 13 - 9	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for App State's Schedule

North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Carolina vs South Carolina	+2.5	63.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	North Carolina vs App State	-18.0	58.0	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Carolina vs Minnesota	-7.0	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	-7.0	49.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-9.5	59.0	W 40 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Carolina vs Miami	-2.5	57.5	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/21	North Carolina vs Virginia	-24.0	58.0	L 27 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/28	North Carolina at Georgia Tech	-12.0	65.5	L 42 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/4	North Carolina vs Campbell	-45.5	68.5	W 59 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	North Carolina vs Duke	-9.5	52.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	North Carolina at Clemson	+7.5	58.0	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	North Carolina at NC State	-2.0	55.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Wed 12/27	North Carolina vs West Virginia	+4.5	62.0	L 10 - 30	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#41 (.24)	46% (28)	33.2	43% (75)	3.18 (55)	172	50% (11)	273	3.8 (77)	#79 (.2)	43% (76)	27	45% (93)	41% (58)	3.15 (17)	40.5	1.6	1.8
UNC	#17 (.3)	47% (19)	34.5	50% (16)	3.41 (11)	193	44% (44)	299	4.13 (45)	#86 (.21)	42% (70)	27.3	43% (68)	42% (76)	3.41 (35)	66.3	1.3	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
APP	#57 (.21)	44% (60)		45% (58)	3.01 (75)	157	43% (62)	273	3.89 (71)	#123 (.3)	49% (127)		51% (130)	47% (119)	4.78 (132)	57	2	1.2
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Offense	14	33.2	29.4	45.6%	3.8	1.6	24	445	172	273	4.5	51%	48%	43%	50%	16%	.24
UNC Defense	13	27.3	24	42.2%	3.41	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	42%	15%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
APP Defense	14	27	30.9	42.6%	3.15	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	45%	41%	18%	.2
UNC Offense	13	34.5	40.7	46.8%	4.13	1.3	25	492	193	299	5.1	46%	53%	50%	44%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
App State	14	31:15	23.7	42%	64%	4.4	40.5	1.6	1.8	6	2.5	2	29.3
North Carolina	13	28:34	24.5	49%	45%	7.2	66.3	1.3	1.7	5.4	2.1	1	31.3

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Offense	14	51% (58)	43% (75)	38.1	171.6	4.5	23 (46)	.09 (99)	3.18 (55)	71% (92)	9% (49)	0.97 (83)
UNC Defense	13	50% (70)	43% (68)	-	-	-	-	.2 (100)	3.33 (112)	73% (68)	10% (85)	1.02 (81)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
APP Defense	14	50% (59)	45% (93)	-	-	-	-	.23 (112)	3.41 (120)	79% (108)	11% (40)	1.1 (113)
UNC Offense	13	46% (97)	50% (16)	38.2	193.2	5.1	28 (25)	.28 (9)	3.41 (11)	75% (52)	8% (31)	1.03 (48)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Offense	14	48% (75)	50% (11)	21.4	33.6	273.4	8.1	12.8	34 (9)	10 (56)	.44 (19)	1.6 (65)	29% (28)	37% (16)	.5 (19)	7% (108)	2.1 (45)
UNC Defense	13	49% (63)	42% (76)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.29 (82)	1.6 (64)	34% (43)	34% (117)	.38 (100)	6% (92)	1.9 (22)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
APP Defense	14	49% (72)	41% (58)	-	-	-	-	-	-	15 (15)	.2 (30)	1.5 (36)	31% (81)	33% (110)	.43 (117)	7% (29)	2.1 (89)
UNC Offense	13	53% (36)	44% (44)	22.5	35.4	298.5	8.4	13.3	26 (31)	11 (68)	.34 (47)	1.6 (73)	30% (33)	32% (56)	.38 (55)	5% (24)	2.2 (21)

App State's Power Ratings
App State's Power Rating: 0.14 #58
App State's Offense Rating: 19.75 #38
App State's Defense Rating: 8.38 #51
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
App State's 2023 Expected Record: 8.50 - 5.50
App State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
App State's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #24
App State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.4 #102

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
App State: 0.14 North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
App State: 3.0 North Carolina: 10.2

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

App State Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.9

App State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 36
App State 25

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
App State 35
North Carolina 31

Total Points: 66

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 33
App State 28

Total Points: 61

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 34.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.7
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	North Carolina	40	App State	34	North Carolina -18	App State	58.0	Over
2022	09/03	App State	61	North Carolina	63	Appalachian State -3	North Carolina	56.0	Over
2019	09/21	North Carolina	31	App State	34	North Carolina -1.5	App State	58.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	2	1	3 Overs
App State	1	2	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	0 - 3	0 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 1	3 - 0	0 - 0	3 - 0

(#58) APP at (#25) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	APP	UNC
Power RatePwr	#58	#25
SP+SP+	#55	#27
Perf GradeGrade	#40	#35
OffenseOff	#28	#34
DefenseDef	#70	#47
Spec TeamsST	#128	#119
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#18

App State Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

App State on Offense


CategoryCat	APP Off	UNC Def
Perf GradePerf	#28	#47
SuccessSuc	#28	#70
ExplosiveExp	#64	#71
PPAPPA	#41	#86
PowerPwr	#38	#81
SP+SP+	#24	#71
Pts POPPO	#77	#35
HavocHav	#73	#92

App State Run Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#88	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#75	#68
Run ExplRExp	#83	#81
PPAExp	#99	#100
Run BlockR Blk	#35	-
OL YdsOLY	#55	#112
Stuff RateStuff	#56	#124
TackleTak	-	#54

App State Pass Game


CategoryCat	APP Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#38	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	#11	#76
Pass ExplPExl	#65	#64
PPAExp	#19	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#105	#41
F7 HavocF7	#49	#85
DB HavocDB	#108	#92

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	APP Def
Perf GradePerf	#34	#70
SuccessSuc	#19	#76
ExplosiveExp	#59	#70
PPAPPA	#17	#79
PowerPwr	#20	#51
SP+SP+	#13	#102
Pts POPPO	#45	#17
HavocHav	#17	#26

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	APP Def
Run GameRun	#26	#124
Run SuccessRSuc	#16	#93
Run ExplRExp	#48	#113
PPAExp	#9	#112
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	#11	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#16	#95
TackleTak	-	#65

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	APP Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#58
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#36
PPAExp	#47	#30
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#42	#34
F7 HavocF7	#31	#40
DB HavocDB	#24	#29

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

APP 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
North Carolina -18.0 (58.0)
North Carolina won vs App State this year (40-34)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat App State in 2023 (40-34)
North Carolina beat App State in 2022 (63-61)

APP's OC Frank Ponce (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Aguilar	292	459	64%	3754	33	10	8.2
Ryan Burger	7	11	64%	73	1	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel	173	825	5	4.8	68
Kanye Roberts	123	696	7	5.7	61
Maquel Haywood (Tr)	60	318	2	5.3	31
Anderson Castle	53	283	2	5.3	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaedin Robinson	67	905	10	13.5	52
Christan Horn	36	566	6	15.7	52
Makai Jackson (Tr)	27	418	2	15.5	67
Dalton Stroman	20	390	3	19.5	77

View App State's Full Roster

APP's DC Scott Sloan (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Andrew Parker	109	6	2	4	2
Nicholas Ross	101	4	2	2	4
Caden Sullivan	64	4	1	1	1
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	0	11

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Johnson	42	9	8	5	1
Michael Fletcher (Tr)	22	5	5	8	1
Santana Hopper	33	7	4	3	0
Shawn Collins (Tr)	23	4	3	8	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ethan Johnson	55	4	0	11
Tyrek Funderburk (Tr)	47	3	1	8
E.J. Jackson (Tr)	47	3	0	7

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drake Maye	269	425	63%	3608	24	9	8.5
Conner Harrell	22	33	67%	270	2	2	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	253	1504	15	5.9	68
Drake Maye	112	449	9	4.0	56
British Brooks	74	375	2	5.1	53
Conner Harrell	22	75	1	3.4	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	46	711	3	15.5	57
Devontez Walker (Tr)	41	699	7	17.0	56
Bryson Nesbit	41	585	5	14.3	62
Nate Mccollum (Tr)	44	469	1	10.7	48

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cedric Gray	121	11	5	7	4
Power Echols	102	6	0	4	1
Don Chapman	64	5	1	2	1
Antavious Lane (Tr)	62	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaimon Rucker	61	15	9	12	1
Cedric Gray	121	11	5	7	4
Beau Atkinson	19	5	4	3	0
Desmond Evans	33	5	3	7	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Allen	49	1	0	0	8
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)	42	1	0	1	6
Desmond Evans	33	5	3	7	5