Virginia at North Carolina - 2021 Matchup Preview

Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, September 18th 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7.5 (67.0)
North Carolina 59 - Virginia: 39 (ACC)

Cavaliers (6 - 6) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (32 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (29 - 23 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -2 (SP+ UVA -1)
Projected Score: UVA: 28 - UNC: 21 (49)
UNC Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
UVA Travel: 150 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UVA Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Virginia's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Virginia vs William & Mary	-30.5	52.5	W 43 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Virginia vs Illinois	-10.5	57.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Virginia at North Carolina	+7.5	67.0	L 39 - 59	O	N
Fri 9/24	Virginia vs Wake Forest	-3.5	71.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Thu 9/30	Virginia at Miami	+3.5	63.5	W 30 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Virginia at Louisville	+2.5	69.5	W 34 - 33	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Virginia vs Duke	-10.5	69.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-6.5	66.0	W 48 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Virginia at BYU	+2.5	66.5	L 49 - 66	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13	Virginia vs Notre Dame	+7.5	62.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/20	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+12.5	69.0	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	-7.0	63.5	L 24 - 29	U	N
Wed 12/29	Virginia vs SMU	-2.5	71.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA	.19	44%	30.8	48%	3.42	163	40%	261	4.05	.2	41%	19.6	37%	44%	3.04	48.3	1.9	1.8
UNC	.41	51%	19.3	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	24.5	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Offense	10	30.8	28.6	44%	4.05	1.9	24	423	163	261	4.5	46%	54%	48%	40%	14%	.19
UNC Defense	12	24.5	26	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UVA Defense	10	19.6	23.2	40.6%	3.04	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	44%	18%	.2
UNC Offense	12	19.3	21	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Virginia	10	31:04	23.6	37%	64%	5.3	48.3	1.9	1.8	7.2	3.2	2	29.2
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Offense	10	46%	48%	36.6	162.9	4.5	16	.2	3.42	77%	7%	0.93
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UVA Defense	10	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.6	76%	12%	0.92
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Offense	10	54%	40%	22.1	37.9	260.5	6.9	11.8	22	14	.17	1.6	29%	31%	.33	8%	1.9
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UVA Defense	10	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.9	34%	32%	.35	6%	2.3
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Virginia's 2021 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #55
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #100

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: North Carolina: 5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: 7.2 North Carolina: 6.4

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 5.7 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.2

Virginia's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 28
North Carolina 21

Projected Total Points: 49

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	North Carolina	16	Virginia	17	Virginia -12.5	North Carolina	51.5	Under
2024	10/26	Virginia	14	North Carolina	41	Virginia -3.5	North Carolina	58.5	Under
2023	10/21	North Carolina	27	Virginia	31	North Carolina -24	Virginia	58.0	Push
2022	11/05	Virginia	28	North Carolina	31	North Carolina -7	Virginia	61.5	Under
2021	09/18	North Carolina	59	Virginia	39	North Carolina -7.5	North Carolina	67.0	Over
2020	10/31	Virginia	44	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -7.0	Virginia	0
2019	11/02	North Carolina	31	Virginia	38	Virginia -1	Virginia	48.0	Over
2018	10/27	Virginia	31	North Carolina	21	Virginia -7.5	Virginia	51.0	Over
2017	10/14	North Carolina	14	Virginia	20	Virginia -3	Virginia	54.5	Under
2016	10/22	Virginia	14	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -9	North Carolina	68.5	Under
2015	10/24	North Carolina	26	Virginia	13	North Carolina -12	North Carolina	58.0	Under
2014	10/25	Virginia	27	North Carolina	28	Virginia -7.5	North Carolina	0
2013	11/09	North Carolina	45	Virginia	14	North Carolina -14	North Carolina	0
2012	11/15	Virginia	13	North Carolina	37
2011	09/17	North Carolina	28	Virginia	17
2010	10/16	Virginia	10	North Carolina	44
2009	10/03	North Carolina	3	Virginia	16
2008	10/18	Virginia	16	North Carolina	13
2007	09/15	North Carolina	20	Virginia	22
2006	10/19	Virginia	23	North Carolina	0
2005	10/22	North Carolina	7	Virginia	5
2004	09/11	Virginia	56	North Carolina	24
2003	10/04	North Carolina	13	Virginia	38
2002	10/19	Virginia	37	North Carolina	27
2001	10/13	North Carolina	30	Virginia	24
2000	10/27	Virginia	17	North Carolina	6

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	12	7	3 Overs
Virginia	14	6	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 13	7 - 6	4 - 3	3 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 13	6 - 7	3 - 3	3 - 4

(#) UVA at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UVA	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#55	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#69	#64
OffenseOff	#19	#30
DefenseDef	#121	#106
Spec TeamsST	#63	#36
TalentTal	#53	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Virginia Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#32	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#34	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#121
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#100
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#2	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
North Carolina -7.5 (67.0)
North Carolina won vs Virginia this year (59-39)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat North Carolina last year (17-16)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2024 (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)

UVA's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC Kelly Poppinga (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD