Miami at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview
Miami logo   Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels  North Carolina logo
Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.5 (57.5) (-185)  Open: -4.0 | 56.0
North Carolina 41 - Miami: 31  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (8 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (26 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 4.2 (#30)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Carolina -1.5  (SP+ MIAMI -1.5)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 25 - UNC: 26 (51)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 691 miles
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami vs Miami (OH)-16.545.0W 38 - 3UY
Sat 9/9 Miami vs Texas A&M+3.050.5W 48 - 33OY
Thu 9/14 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.063.5W 48 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Miami at Temple-23.046.5W 41 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Miami vs Georgia Tech-19.057.0L 20 - 23UN
Sat 10/14 Miami at North Carolina+2.557.5L 31 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 Miami vs Clemson+3.048.5W 28 - 20UY
Sat 10/28 Miami vs Virginia-18.548.0W 29 - 26ON
Sat 11/4 Miami at NC State-6.544.0L 6 - 20UN
Sat 11/11 Miami at Florida State+14.550.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 11/18 Miami vs Louisville-1.546.5L 31 - 38ON
Fri 11/24 Miami at Boston College-13.550.5W 45 - 20OY
Thu 12/28 Miami vs Rutgers+3.041.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI.1344%30.948%3.0912842%2403.5.1541%14.843%40%3.7659.62.12.1
UNC.346%19.345%3.1815347%3094.47.2948%24.549%48%4.5155.311.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1230.92644.3%3.52.1213681282403.745%54%48%42%17%.13
UNC Defense1424.52648.3%4.511.1 - - - - - 51%49%49%48%12%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1214.81541.3%3.762.1 - - - - - 52%47%43%40%21%.15
UNC Offense1419.32146.2%4.471254631533094.245%55%45%47%14%.3

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1230:4221.240%41%759.62.12.16.93.1328.2
North Carolina1429:5524.646%71%6.155.311.13.41.2129.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1245%48%34.5128.13.712.093.0970%11%0.78
UNC Defense1451%49% - - - - .183.2579%6%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1252%43% - - - - .122.8168%14%0.96
UNC Offense1445%45%36.4153.44.224.183.1872%10%1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1254%42%21.334.4239.9711.31812.21.531%32%.297%1.8
UNC Defense1449%48% - - - - - - 9.411.628%31%.46%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1247%40% - - - - - - 13.211.832%34%.297%1.9
UNC Offense1455%47%24.637.5309.38.312.6387.411.632%40%.54%1.9

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 9.90  #22
Miami's Offense Rating: 19.30  #42
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.26  #41
2023 Talent Rating: 860.27  #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 64%  #11
Miami's 2023 Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20
Miami's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7  #22
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #32
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2  #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 9.90   North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 11.7   North Carolina: 10.2




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335  #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89  #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64  #81
2023 Talent Rating: 805.63  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44  #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2  #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8  #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 26
Miami 25

Projected Total Points: 51
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/14North Carolina41Miami31North Carolina -2.5North Carolina57.5Over
202210/08Miami24North Carolina27Miami -4North Carolina67.5Under
202110/16North Carolina45Miami42North Carolina -7.5Miami63.5Over
202012/12Miami26North Carolina62Miami -3.0North Carolina72.5Over
201909/07North Carolina28Miami25Miami -5North Carolina46.0Over
201809/27Miami47North Carolina10Miami -17.5Miami56.0Over
201710/28North Carolina19Miami24Miami -21North Carolina56.0Under
201610/15Miami13North Carolina20Miami -7North Carolina67.0Under
201511/14North Carolina59Miami21North Carolina -12.5North Carolina68.5Over
201411/01Miami47North Carolina20Miami -11Miami0
201310/17North Carolina23Miami27Miami -7.5North Carolina0
201210/13Miami14North Carolina18
201110/15North Carolina24Miami30
201010/23Miami33North Carolina10
200911/14North Carolina33Miami24
200809/27Miami24North Carolina28
200710/06North Carolina33Miami27
200610/07Miami27North Carolina7
200510/29Miami34North Carolina16
200410/30North Carolina31Miami28
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1286 Overs
Miami833 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 87 - 44 - 43 - 0
Road Teams8 - 124 - 70 - 34 - 4

(#22) MIAMI at (#25) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIAMIUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #22 #25
SP+SP+ #22 #27
Perf GradeGrade #12 #35
OffenseOff #15 #34
DefenseDef #22 #47
Spec TeamsST #95 #119
TalentTal #12 #17
Blue ChipsBC% #11 #18
Miami on Offense
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #15 #47
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #42 #81
SP+SP+ #32 #71
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Miami Run Game
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #31 #57
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #35 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #54
Miami Pass Game
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #22 #37
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #13 #41
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCatUNC OffMIAMI Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #22
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #20 #41
SP+SP+ #13 #36
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRun #26 #19
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #51
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCatUNC OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePass #8 #53
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #42 #22
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 7
North Carolina -2.5 (57.5)
North Carolina won vs Miami this year (41-31)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Miami in 2023 (41-31)

  
MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Van Dyke21933366%270319128.1
Emory Williams447162%470316.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.10062566.338
Mark Fletcher Jr.10551454.954
Donald Chaney Jr.9447825.129
Ajay Allen (Tr)7036155.230
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Restrepo851092612.848
Jacolby George57864815.285
Colbie Young47563512.057
Brashard Smith22263212.054

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)7817863
James Williams721024
Kamren Kinchens523105
Corey Flagg Jr.477030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)7817863
Rueben Bain Jr.4212841
Branson Deen (Tr)154320
Wesley Bissainthe417220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Kinchens523105
Daryl Porter Jr.210014
James Williams721024

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Maye26942563%36082498.5
Conner Harrell223367%270228.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2531504155.968
Drake Maye11244994.056
British Brooks7437525.153
Conner Harrell227513.461
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones46711315.557
Devontez Walker (Tr)41699717.056
Bryson Nesbit41585514.362
Nate Mccollum (Tr)44469110.748

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cedric Gray12111574
Power Echols1026041
Don Chapman645121
Antavious Lane (Tr)623001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker61159121
Cedric Gray12111574
Beau Atkinson195430
Desmond Evans335375
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen491008
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)421016
Desmond Evans335375