Miami at North Carolina - 2023 Matchup Preview
Miami logo Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, October 14th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -2.5 (57.5) (-185)  Open: -4.0 | 56.0
North Carolina 41 - Miami: 31  (ACC)

 
Hurricanes (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (8 - 7)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (41 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 4.2 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: North Carolina -1.5   (SP+ MIAMI -1.5)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 31 - UNC: 32 (64)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 691 miles
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Miami's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Miami vs Miami (OH)-16.545.0W 38 - 3UY
Sat 9/9 Miami vs Texas A&M+3.050.5W 48 - 33OY
Thu 9/14 Miami vs Bethune-Cookman-54.063.5W 48 - 7UN
Sat 9/23 Miami at Temple-23.046.5W 41 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 Miami vs Georgia Tech-19.057.0L 20 - 23UN
Sat 10/14 Miami at North Carolina+2.557.5L 31 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 Miami vs Clemson+3.048.5W 28 - 20UY
Sat 10/28 Miami vs Virginia-18.548.0W 29 - 26ON
Sat 11/4 Miami at NC State-6.544.0L 6 - 20UN
Sat 11/11 Miami at Florida State+14.550.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 11/18 Miami vs Louisville-1.546.5L 31 - 38ON
Fri 11/24 Miami at Boston College-13.550.5W 45 - 20OY
Thu 12/28 Miami vs Rutgers+3.041.0L 24 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI.1344%43.948%3.0912842%2403.5.1541%25.343%40%3.7659.62.12.1
UNC.346%30.945%3.1815347%3094.47.2948%28.149%48%4.5155.311.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Offense1243.940.544.3%3.52.1213681282403.745%54%48%42%17%.13
UNC Defense1428.133.448.3%4.511.1 - - - - - 51%49%49%48%12%.29
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIAMI Defense1225.330.841.3%3.762.1 - - - - - 52%47%43%40%21%.15
UNC Offense1430.93646.2%4.471254631533094.245%55%45%47%14%.3

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Miami1230:4221.240%41%759.62.12.16.93.1328.2
North Carolina1429:5524.646%71%6.155.311.13.41.2129.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense1245%48%34.5128.13.712.093.0970%11%0.78
UNC Defense1451%49% - - - - .183.2579%6%0.87
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense1252%43% - - - - .122.8168%14%0.96
UNC Offense1445%45%36.4153.44.224.183.1872%10%1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense1254%42%21.334.4239.9711.31812.21.531%32%.297%1.8
UNC Defense1449%48% - - - - - - 9.411.628%31%.46%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense1247%40% - - - - - - 13.211.832%34%.297%1.9
UNC Offense1455%47%24.637.5309.38.312.6387.411.632%40%.54%1.9

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 9.90 #22
Miami's Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
2023 Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 64% #11
Miami's 2023 Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20
Miami's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: 9.90   North Carolina: 12.335

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 11.7   North Carolina: 10.2




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 12.335 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78


Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 40.5
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.8

Miami's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 32
Miami 31

Projected Total Points: 64
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/14North Carolina41Miami31North CarolinaNorth Carolina -2.5North Carolina57.5Over
202210/08Miami24North Carolina27North CarolinaMiami -4North Carolina67.5Under
202110/16North Carolina45Miami42North CarolinaNorth Carolina -7.5Miami63.5Over
202012/12Miami26North Carolina62North CarolinaMiami -3.0North Carolina72.5Over
201909/07North Carolina28Miami25North CarolinaMiami -5North Carolina46.0Over
201809/27Miami47North Carolina10MiamiMiami -17.5Miami56.0Over
201710/28North Carolina19Miami24MiamiMiami -21North Carolina56.0Under
201610/15Miami13North Carolina20North CarolinaMiami -7North Carolina67.0Under
201511/14North Carolina59Miami21North CarolinaNorth Carolina -12.5North Carolina68.5Over
201411/01Miami47North Carolina20MiamiMiami -11Miami0
201310/17North Carolina23Miami27MiamiMiami -7.5North Carolina0
201210/13Miami14North Carolina18North Carolina
201110/15North Carolina24Miami30Miami
201010/23Miami33North Carolina10Miami
200911/14North Carolina33Miami24North Carolina
200809/27Miami24North Carolina28North Carolina
200710/06North Carolina33Miami27North Carolina
200610/07Miami27North Carolina7Miami
200510/29Miami34North Carolina16Miami
200410/30North Carolina31Miami28North Carolina
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina1286 Overs
Miami833 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 87 - 44 - 43 - 0
Road Teams8 - 124 - 70 - 34 - 4

(#22) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.90 #22
Offense Rating: 19.30 #42
Defense Rating: 7.26 #41
Overall SP+ Rating: 11.7 #22
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #32
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.2 #36
Talent Rating: 976.00 #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 64% #11
Expected Record: 8.80 - 4.20

Team Profile






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Miami     Ratings Matchup     North Carolina
Power #22
#25
Off #42
#20
Def #41
#81
Talent #15
#16
SP+ #22
#27
SP+ Off #32
#13
SP+ Def #36
#71

Rematch from Week 7
North Carolina -2.5 (57.5)
North Carolina won vs Miami this year (41-31)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Miami in 2023 (41-31)
North Carolina beat Miami in 2022 (27-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 62°

Team Information
Injuries: MIAMI | UNC
Depth Chart: MIAMI | UNC
Rosters: MIAMI | UNC
(#25) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 12.335 #25
Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71
Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44 #18
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80

Team Profile






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Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Van Dyke436863%422106.2
Jacurri Brown346652%387145.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith2341330145.771
Henry Parrish Jr.131693105.342
Jacurri Brown5340147.667
Donald Chaney Jr.5017833.627
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Restrepo6911271116.377
Jacolby George53752814.249
Elijah Arroyo35590716.974
Brashard Smith3932748.433

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Lance Guidry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)9611255
Corey Flagg Jr.815110
Nyjalik Kelly5310611
Jared Harrison-Hunte408750
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey3013891
Jared Harrison-Hunte408750
Nyjalik Kelly5310611
Chantz Williams187414
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryl Porter Jr.280027
Francisco Mauigoa (Tr)9611255
Chantz Williams187414

North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tad Hudson172665%173206.7
Jefferson Boaz2540%24004.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2811660155.975
George Pettaway16397656.031
Elijah Green2920156.951
D.J. Jones5716202.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones36582616.253
John Copenhaver40414410.435
Omarion Hampton3837329.849
Kamari Morales28325611.654

View North Carolina's Full Roster
North Carolina's DC Gene Chizik
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Antavious Lane (Tr)744102
Power Echols732126
Jahvaree Ritzie385551
Kevin Hester Jr.374430
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker308631
Desmond Evans3410591
Jahvaree Ritzie385551
Kevin Hester Jr.374430
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)364218
Power Echols732126
Tayon Holloway162105