North Carolina at Duke - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wallace Wade Stadium - Durham, NC

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UNC 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Duke -8  (SP+ DUKE -13)
Projected Score: UNC: 23 - DUKE: 31 (53)
DUKE Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
UNC Travel: 9 miles
Blue Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#41)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Duke's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Duke vs Tulane-9
Sat 9/12 Duke at Illinois+9
Sat 9/19 Duke vs Stanford-11.5
Sat 9/26 Duke vs William & Mary-28
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10 Duke at Georgia Tech+5
Sat 10/17 Duke vs North Carolina-8
Fri 10/23 Duke at Virginia+6.5
Sat 10/31 Duke vs Boston College-11.5
Fri 11/6 Duke at NC State+5.5
Sat 11/14 Duke at Miami+21.5
Sat 11/21 Duke vs Clemson+2
Sat 11/28 Duke at Wake Forest+4.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
DUKE#25 (.25)46% (30)34.645% (51)2.8 (99)13847% (20)2854.32 (26)#116 (.23)44% (98)29.443% (73)46% (119)4.39 (129)62.711.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
DUKE Defense1429.431.343.8%4.391.7 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%17%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
DUKE Offense1434.632.246%4.321234241382854.344%55%45%47%15%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Duke1429:4322.539%74%6.462.711.76.71.9331.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)
DUKE Defense1448% (49)43% (73) - - - - .1 (68)2.62 (19)73% (85)12% (14)1.03 (101)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
DUKE Offense1444% (112)45% (51)32.4138.24.326 (60).08 (85)2.8 (99)69% (85)10% (79)0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)
DUKE Defense1450% (86)46% (119) - - - - - - 14 (22).41 (125)1.6 (107)32% (56)34% (123).44 (128)6% (86)2 (77)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
DUKE Offense1455% (21)47% (20)2436.1285.47.911.934 (14)6 (7).39 (24)1.6 (44)30% (39)33% (37).4 (30)6% (55)2.2 (13)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.57  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 4.57   Duke: 6.755

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6   Duke: 6.6




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.755  #57
Duke's Offense Rating: 15.11  #32
Duke's Defense Rating: 18.20  #74
2026 Talent Rating: 762.00  #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 5  #54
Duke's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6  #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2  #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 31
North Carolina 23

Projected Total Points: 53
Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22North Carolina25Duke32Duke -6.5Duke50.5Over
202409/28Duke21North Carolina20North Carolina -1Duke55.5Under
202311/11North Carolina47Duke45North Carolina -9.5Duke52.5Over
202210/15Duke35North Carolina38North Carolina -7Duke70.0Over
202110/02North Carolina38Duke7North Carolina -19.5North Carolina74.0Under
202011/07Duke24North Carolina56North Carolina -11.5North Carolina63.0Over
201910/26North Carolina20Duke17North Carolina -2.5North Carolina52.5Under
201811/10Duke42North Carolina35Duke -7.5North Carolina58.5Over
201709/23North Carolina17Duke27North Carolina -1.5Duke61.0Under
201611/10Duke28North Carolina27North Carolina -10.5Duke66.5Under
201511/07North Carolina66Duke31North Carolina -8North Carolina59.5Over
201411/20Duke20North Carolina45Duke -6North Carolina0
201311/30North Carolina25Duke27North Carolina -5.5Duke0
201210/20Duke33North Carolina30
201111/26North Carolina37Duke21
201011/27Duke19North Carolina24
200911/07North Carolina19Duke6
200811/29Duke20North Carolina28
200711/24North Carolina20Duke14
200611/25Duke44North Carolina45
200511/19North Carolina24Duke21
200411/20Duke17North Carolina40
200311/22North Carolina22Duke30
200111/17North Carolina52Duke17
200011/17Duke21North Carolina59
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke876 Overs
North Carolina1765 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 126 - 73 - 53 - 2
Road Teams12 - 137 - 62 - 35 - 3

(#45) UNC at (#57) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCDUKE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #45 #57
SP+SP+ #91 #44
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #13 #62
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #54
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffDUKE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #98
ExplosiveExp #121 #120
PPAPPA #119 #116
PowerPwr #67 #74
SP+SP+ #123 #86
Pts POPPO #108 #129
HavocHav #94 #36
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffDUKE Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #73
Run ExplRExp #127 #101
PPAExp #130 #68
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #19
Stuff RateStuff #67 #11
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #119
Pass ExplPExl #103 #107
PPAExp #92 #125
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #14
DB HavocDB #55 #86
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #30 #60
ExplosiveExp #30 #62
PPAPPA #25 #78
PowerPwr #32 #32
SP+SP+ #19 #58
Pts POPPO #26 #61
HavocHav #67 #91
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #64
Run ExplRExp #65 #88
PPAExp #85 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #99 #37
Stuff RateStuff #115 #99
TackleTak - NR
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #50
Pass ExplPExl #44 #17
PPAExp #24 #51
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #79 #70
DB HavocDB #55 #90
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Duke beat North Carolina last year (32-25)
Duke beat North Carolina in 2024 (21-20)
North Carolina beat Duke in 2023 (47-45)

  
UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget (Tr)23239359%30581797.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard2001132115.760
CJ Campbell2211905.422
Walker Eget (Tr)339602.913
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Javen Nicholas (Tr)60740512.364
Jeremiah Hasley40454611.456
Nate Sheppard3728617.720
Nate Kurisky (Tr)2015727.937

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Mergott918293
DaShawn Stone862013
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
Landan Callahan420002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliott Schaper162200
Luke Mergott918293
Kendall Johnson373142
Preston Watson153121
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Flowers (Tr)331004
Luke Mergott918293
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003