North Carolina at Pittsburgh - 2021 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers

Thursday, November 11th 2021 (7:30 PM EST)
Pittsburgh -6.5 (72.0)
Pittsburgh 30 - North Carolina: 23 (ACC)

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PITT is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -8 (SP+ PITT -11)
Projected Score: UNC: 22 - PITT: 29 (51)
PITT Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNC Travel: 318 miles

Panthers (11 - 3) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (44 - 35)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 25 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
PITT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Pittsburgh's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Pittsburgh vs Massachusetts	-38.0	56.0	W 51 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/11	Pittsburgh at Tennessee	-3.5	56.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Pittsburgh vs Western Michigan	-14.0	59.0	L 41 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/25	Pittsburgh vs New Hampshire	-29.0	53.0	W 77 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech	-3.0	57.5	W 52 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	-6.0	55.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Pittsburgh vs Clemson	-3.5	47.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Pittsburgh vs Miami	-9.5	61.0	L 34 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/6	Pittsburgh at Duke	-21.0	64.5	W 54 - 29	O	Y
Thu 11/11	Pittsburgh vs North Carolina	-6.5	72.0	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Pittsburgh vs Virginia	-12.5	69.0	W 48 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/27	Pittsburgh at Syracuse	-12.0	58.5	W 31 - 14	U	Y
Sat 12/4	Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest	-3.5	72.5	W 45 - 21	U	Y
Thu 12/30	Pittsburgh vs Michigan State	+3.5	55.0	L 21 - 31	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.41	51%	19.3	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	24.5	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9
PITT	.14	41%	33.7	42%	2.29	122	40%	260	3.41	.13	37%	24.8	37%	38%	3.16	68.5	1.5	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PITT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	12	19.3	17.5	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41
PITT Defense	11	24.8	25.1	37.3%	3.16	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	37%	38%	23%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	12	24.5	23	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22
PITT Offense	11	33.7	36.6	40.6%	3.41	1.5	21	382	122	260	3.5	44%	55%	42%	40%	20%	.14

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1
Pittsburgh	11	31:08	20.5	36%	50%	7.8	68.5	1.5	1.7	10	4.1	2	29.9

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19
PITT Defense	11	44%	37%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.26	69%	16%	0.94

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99
PITT Offense	11	44%	42%	35.3	122.1	3.5	20	.03	2.29	69%	13%	0.91

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3
PITT Defense	11	56%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.22	1.8	37%	30%	.33	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1
PITT Offense	11	55%	40%	22.4	38.7	259.7	6.7	11.6	14	12	.25	1.6	34%	31%	.29	7%	1.9

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: Pittsburgh: 11.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 6.4 Pittsburgh: 17.6

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: 11.3 NR
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: NR
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #37
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Pittsburgh's 2021 Expected Record: -
Pittsburgh's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.6 #9
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #9
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #29

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Pittsburgh 29
North Carolina 22

Projected Total Points: 51

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Pittsburgh's 2021 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	North Carolina	24	Pittsburgh	34	Pittsburgh -2.5	Pittsburgh	63.0	Under
2023	09/23	Pittsburgh	24	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -7	North Carolina	49.5	Over
2022	10/29	North Carolina	42	Pittsburgh	24	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	65.5	Over
2021	11/11	Pittsburgh	30	North Carolina	23	Pittsburgh -6.5	Pittsburgh	72.0	Under
2019	11/14	Pittsburgh	34	North Carolina	27	Pittsburgh -4	Pittsburgh	49.0	Over
2018	09/22	North Carolina	38	Pittsburgh	35	Pittsburgh -3	North Carolina	48.0	Over
2017	11/09	Pittsburgh	31	North Carolina	34	Pittsburgh -10	North Carolina	50.5	Over
2016	09/24	North Carolina	37	Pittsburgh	36	North Carolina -7	Pittsburgh	67.0	Over
2015	10/29	Pittsburgh	19	North Carolina	26	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	59.0	Under
2014	11/15	North Carolina	40	Pittsburgh	35	North Carolina -1.5	North Carolina	0
2013	11/16	Pittsburgh	27	North Carolina	34	North Carolina -1	North Carolina	53.0	Over
2009	12/26	North Carolina	17	Pittsburgh	19
2000	11/03	Pittsburgh	17	North Carolina	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Pittsburgh	4	4	7 Overs
North Carolina	9	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 7	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 6	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4

(#) UNC at (#) PITT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	PITT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#59	#9
Perf GradeGrade	#64	#29
OffenseOff	#30	#21
DefenseDef	#106	#50
Spec TeamsST	#36	#38
TalentTal	#17	#37
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

North Carolina Injury Report

Pittsburgh Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	PITT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#50
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#29
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#2	#21
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#47

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#24	#65
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Pittsburgh on Offense


CategoryCat	PITT Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#21	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#9	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Pittsburgh Run Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#24	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#96	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Pittsburgh Pass Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#38	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Pittsburgh -6.5 (72.0)
Pittsburgh won vs North Carolina this year (30-23)

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat North Carolina in 2024 (34-24)
North Carolina beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (41-24)

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

PITT's OC Mark Whipple (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD