Stanford at North Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Stanford logo Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC  (ACC)

 
Cardinal (2 - 4) (1 - 5 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 30 (13 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.1 - 8.9 (#124)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
STAN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -3.5  (SP+ UNC -1)

Projected Score: STAN: 23 - UNC: 26 (49)
UNC Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
STAN Travel: 2371 miles, 3 hrs behind
Tar Heels (2 - 3) (2 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (22 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.552.5
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+36
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+18.5
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+3.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+10.047.5
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+15
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+6
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-3.5
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+16
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+11.5
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+15.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#109 (.11)38% (120)18.838% (114)2.6 (116)9538% (106)2412.96 (129)#108 (.23)46% (115)30.246% (112)45% (108)3.39 (42)62.51.30.8
UNC#117 (.08)39% (116)18.840% (104)2.79 (90)10238% (115)1633.52 (104)#107 (.23)42% (76)25.834% (16)49% (127)2.9 (17)511.21.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense618.813.338.2%2.961.31833695241348%52%38%38%17%.11
UNC Defense525.830.742%2.91.4 - - - - - 46%54%34%49%15%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense630.23345.8%3.390.8 - - - - - 39%61%46%45%12%.23
UNC Offense518.821.738.7%3.521.2152651021633.851%49%40%38%17%.08

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford630:3718.233%69%762.51.30.842123.7
North Carolina526:3914.832%63%5511.21.44.81.2030
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense648% (88)38% (114)31.794.735 (115).01 (118)2.6 (116)79% (31)11% (102)0.89 (102)
UNC Defense546% (30)34% (16) - - - - .02 (31)2.12 (5)93% (136)9% (95)0.96 (73)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense639% (2)46% (112) - - - - .04 (40)3.06 (102)80% (114)7% (126)0.8 (15)
UNC Offense551% (67)40% (104)27102.23.85 (115).09 (86)2.79 (90)76% (45)12% (121)0.94 (80)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense652% (49)38% (106)19.332.8240.87.312.56 (110)4 (50).23 (87)1.6 (62)32% (78)25% (112).16 (113)6% (87)1.7 (129)
UNC Defense554% (111)49% (127) - - - - - - 4 (62).41 (124)1.4 (35)30% (99)27% (38).29 (71)6% (69)1.8 (33)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense661% (135)45% (108) - - - - - - 1 (128).35 (113)1.5 (74)33% (59)35% (118).32 (84)5% (106)1.7 (15)
UNC Offense549% (67)38% (115)17.628162.65.89.25 (116)4 (50).07 (124)1.4 (104)28% (31)23% (123).26 (90)5% (52)2.1 (49)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -3.32  #85
Stanford's Offense Rating: 5.99  #96
Stanford's Defense Rating: 9.31  #75
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.1 - 8.9
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.2  #108
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #106
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8  #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -3.32   North Carolina: -3.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -10.2   North Carolina: -9.3




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -3.09  #79
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 5.80  #98
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 7.68  #66
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.3  #103
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.6  #109
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.9  #90

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 13.3
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 33

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 26
Stanford 23


Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 30
Stanford 20

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 26
Stanford 22

Total Points: 48
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.7
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.7

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201612/30North Carolina23Stanford25Stanford -2.5North Carolina55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina010 Overs
Stanford101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#85) STAN at (#79) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANUNC
Power RatePwr #85 #79
SP+SP+ #108 #103
Perf GradeGrade #116 #88
OffenseOff #87 #119
DefenseDef #130 #59
Spec TeamsST #26 #80
TalentTal #39 #17
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #29

Stanford Notes
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
(4/1) New HC Reich a one year interim HC
(3/25) HC Taylor fired by Luck for behavior issues

North Carolina Notes
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Perf GradePerf #87 #59
SuccessSuc #120 #76
ExplosiveExp #67 #73
PPAPPA #109 #107
PowerPwr #96 #66
SP+SP+ #106 #90
Pts POPPO #129 #17
HavocHav #100 #94
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #62 #42
Run SuccessRSuc #114 #16
Run ExplRExp #102 #73
PPAExp #118 #31
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #5
Stuff RateStuff #83 #21
TackleTak -  #42
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #101 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #106 #127
Pass ExplPExl #62 #35
PPAExp #87 #124
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #111 #55
F7 HavocF7 #102 #95
DB HavocDB #87 #69
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUNC OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #119 #130
SuccessSuc #116 #115
ExplosiveExp #107 #66
PPAPPA #117 #108
PowerPwr #98 #75
SP+SP+ #109 #99
Pts POPPO #104 #42
HavocHav #100 #124
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UNC OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #126 #118
Run SuccessRSuc #104 #112
Run ExplRExp #80 #15
PPAExp #86 #40
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #90 #102
Stuff RateStuff #55 #109
TackleTak -  #115
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUNC OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #117 #121
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #108
Pass ExplPExl #104 #74
PPAExp #124 #113
Pass Block/RushP Blk #46 #107
F7 HavocF7 #121 #126
DB HavocDB #52 #106
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)11619659%1445647.4
Micah Ford010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9140034.475
Cole Tabb3919415.017
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Sedrick Irvin155213.515
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams36412111.436
Bryce Farrell19381120.168
Sam Roush18219212.269
Caden High (Tr)15190012.734

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Jaivion Green241003
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson144331
Hunter Barth (Tr)223210
Matt Rose474112
Scotty Edwards331111
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green241003
Matt Rose474112
Collin Wright220002

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Max Johnson467264%383205.3
Giovanni Lopez426763%430336.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June3826617.050
Giovanni Lopez336912.112
Benjamin Hall (Tr)206813.411
Davion Gause174412.612
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp18234213.039
Javarius Green8110013.839
Chris Culliver5104120.851
Jake Johnson108518.516

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Simpson (Tr)295200
Khmori House (Tr)292030
Kaleb Cost241001
Gavin Gibson (Tr)201011
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Andrew Simpson (Tr)295200
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)142220
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)182100
C.J. Mims (Tr)161100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen151004
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)142003
Jaiden Patterson131003