Stanford at North Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina Tar Heels

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Saturday, November 8th 2025 (4:30 PM EST)
North Carolina -8.5 (41.5) (-325)  Open: -7.5
North Carolina 20 - Stanford: 15  (ACC)

 
Cardinal (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Taylor (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 19 - 29 (13 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
STAN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -4  (SP+ UNC -5)

Projected Score: STAN: 20 - UNC: 24 (44)
UNC Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
STAN Travel: 2371 miles, 3 hrs behind
Tar Heels (4 - 8) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#98)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.555.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+28.545.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5L 20 - 35ON
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+8.541.5L 15 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+4.547.5W 31 - 10UY
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+32.550.5L 20 - 49OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+7.545.5L 18 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+12.551.5L 16 - 17UY
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+1.545.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-8.541.5W 20 - 15UN
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+3.537.5L 12 - 28ON
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+6.550.5L 25 - 32ON
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+7.048.5L 19 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)18.841% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)29.245% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)19.347% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)24.544% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense1218.812.540.1%3.671.8193251341913.750%50%41%39%22%.1
UNC Defense1324.52640.5%4.011.2 - - - - - 53%46%44%37%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense1229.232.346.6%4.531.3 - - - - - 43%57%45%48%14%.27
UNC Offense1319.32142%4.081.2203911752164.952%47%47%37%15%.2

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford1231:4118.535%56%5.4491.81.35.32.1228.5
North Carolina1327:4220.240%50%6.859.81.21.25.22.8629.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense1250% (71)41% (95)36.3133.83.711 (116).08 (97)2.72 (116)66% (111)15% (131)1.01 (52)
UNC Defense1353% (92)44% (82) - - - - .16 (88)3.39 (121)86% (130)9% (83)0.89 (29)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense1243% (4)45% (92) - - - - .11 (62)2.92 (53)68% (39)10% (58)0.99 (70)
UNC Offense1352% (53)47% (34)35.9175.24.926 (36).26 (14)3.32 (22)70% (89)9% (54)1.06 (36)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense1250% (64)39% (98)18.730.8191.36.210.318 (68)17 (127).13 (111)1.5 (120)32% (82)26% (116).22 (106)7% (102)2.1 (29)
UNC Defense1346% (38)37% (26) - - - - - - 9 (76).22 (64)1.8 (125)32% (66)26% (12).23 (35)5% (103)2.2 (99)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense1257% (131)48% (124) - - - - - - 9 (76).4 (125)1.6 (69)30% (96)34% (113).33 (85)4% (129)2 (51)
UNC Offense1347% (82)37% (114)16.829215.97.512.817 (79)8 (40).17 (101)1.7 (29)32% (74)29% (94).32 (78)6% (60)2.1 (33)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: 0.81  #66
Stanford's Offense Rating: 9.61  #90
Stanford's Defense Rating: 8.80  #36
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.8  #112
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.4  #117
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #78

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: 0.81   North Carolina: -1.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -11.8   North Carolina: -6.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: -1.6  #72
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 11.32  #78
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 12.92  #62
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.5
Defense: 29.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.3

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 24
Stanford 20


Projected Total Points: 44
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08North Carolina20Stanford15North Carolina -8.5Stanford41.5Under
201612/30North Carolina23Stanford25Stanford -2.5North Carolina55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina110 Overs
Stanford112 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams1 - 11 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#66) STAN at (#72) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #66 #72
SP+SP+ #112 #91
Perf GradeGrade #120 #83
OffenseOff #121 #99
DefenseDef #109 #52
Spec TeamsST #36 #70
TalentTal #39 #17
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #29
Stanford Notes
(11/28) Hired HC Tavita Pritchard, was QBC for Wash/NFL
(11/28) Great W over Cal, run defense great. Off was enough
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/22) QB Gulbranson inj vs FSU, ? for Miami game
(10/19) Huge W vs FSU, box score L but held on. 3-2 run now
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
Stanford Injury Report
North Carolina Notes
(12/12) Fired OC Freddie Kitchens & STC Mike Priefer
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
North Carolina Injury Report
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #121 #52
SuccessSuc #101 #53
ExplosiveExp #98 #66
PPAPPA #114 #70
PowerPwr #90 #62
SP+SP+ #117 #58
Pts POPPO #92 #90
HavocHav #132 #90
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #73 #53
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #82
Run ExplRExp #52 #29
PPAExp #97 #88
Run BlockR Blk #120 -
OL YdsOLY #116 #121
Stuff RateStuff #127 #126
TackleTak -  #71
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #125 #75
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #26
Pass ExplPExl #120 #125
PPAExp #111 #64
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #127 #39
F7 HavocF7 #131 #83
DB HavocDB #102 #103
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffSTAN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #99 #109
SuccessSuc #80 #119
ExplosiveExp #39 #103
PPAPPA #65 #120
PowerPwr #78 #36
SP+SP+ #123 #78
Pts POPPO #52 #124
HavocHav #49 #94
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #108 #66
Run SuccessRSuc #34 #92
Run ExplRExp #36 #70
PPAExp #14 #62
Run BlockR Blk #77 -
OL YdsOLY #22 #53
Stuff RateStuff #19 #29
TackleTak -  #116
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #91 #107
Pass SuccessPSuc #114 #124
Pass ExplPExl #29 #69
PPAExp #101 #125
Pass Block/RushP Blk #49 #119
F7 HavocF7 #54 #58
DB HavocDB #60 #129
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 11
North Carolina -8.5 (41.5)
North Carolina won vs Stanford this year (20-15)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Stanford last year (20-15)

  
STAN's OC Troy Taylor (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)14826057%18139107.0
Elijah Brown7412758%829426.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford14564344.475
Cole Tabb11444533.928
Sedrick Irvin4111812.915
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams60757612.636
Sam Roush49545211.169
Bryce Farrell28447216.068
Caden High (Tr)37414111.234

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose1068333
Scotty Edwards544311
Jahsiah Galvan502012
Jaivion Green383016
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson336461
Matt Rose1068333
Ernest Cooper235301
Scotty Edwards544311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green383016
Brandon Nicholson271106
Collin Wright331004

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez17026165%17471056.7
Max Johnson548762%437205.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall (Tr)7127423.918
Davion Gause6125834.225
Giovanni Lopez8613331.517
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Kobe Paysour35438112.544
Demon June1715919.472
Javarius Green13150011.539

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khmori House (Tr)733161
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
Will Hardy512000
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)47121150
Tyler Thompson268711
Andrew Simpson (Tr)599561
C.J. Mims (Tr)413200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen352108
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)202006
Jaiden Patterson332005