Stanford at North Carolina - 2025 Matchup Preview
Stanford logo Stanford Cardinal at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (4:30 PM EST)
North Carolina -8.5 (41.5) (-325)  Open: -7.5
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC  (ACC)

 
Cardinal (3 - 6) (2 - 7 - 0)
Coach Frank Reich (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 30 (12 - 35 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.6 - 8.4 (#119)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
STAN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -9.5  (SP+ UNC -7)

Projected Score: STAN: 17 - UNC: 26 (43)
UNC Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
STAN Travel: 2371 miles, 3 hrs behind
Tar Heels (3 - 5) (5 - 3 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 22 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.6 - 7.4 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
 
Stanford's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/23 Stanford at Hawai'i+1.553.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/6 Stanford at BYU+20.544.5L 3 - 27UN
Sat 9/13 Stanford vs Boston College+14.044.5W 30 - 20OY
Sat 9/20 Stanford at Virginia+16.548.5L 20 - 48ON
Sat 9/27 Stanford vs San José State-3.049.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Stanford at SMU+19.555.5L 10 - 34UN
Sat 10/18 Stanford vs Florida State+17.555.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/25 Stanford at Miami+28.545.5L 7 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 Stanford vs Pittsburgh+13.551.5L 20 - 35ON
Sat 11/8 Stanford at North Carolina+8.541.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Stanford vs California+6.5
Sat 11/29 Stanford vs Notre Dame+30.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1

Predictions for Stanford's Schedule
North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/1 North Carolina vs TCU+3.059.5L 14 - 48ON
Sat 9/6 North Carolina at Charlotte-16.549.5W 20 - 3UY
Sat 9/13 North Carolina vs Richmond-24.547.5W 41 - 6UY
Sat 9/20 North Carolina at UCF+7.046.5L 9 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4 North Carolina vs Clemson+15.547.5L 10 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 North Carolina at California+7.545.5L 18 - 21UY
Sat 10/25 North Carolina vs Virginia+12.551.5L 16 - 17UY
Fri 10/31 North Carolina at Syracuse+1.545.5W 27 - 10UY
Sat 11/8 North Carolina vs Stanford-8.541.5
Sat 11/15 North Carolina at Wake Forest+8.5
Sat 11/22 North Carolina vs Duke+7
Sat 11/29 North Carolina at NC State+11

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#127 (.04)36% (128)17.836% (127)2.13 (126)8337% (119)2262.95 (127)#102 (.2)45% (117)30.146% (117)45% (107)3.22 (25)57.31.61
UNC#120 (.06)39% (113)19.441% (92)3.08 (37)12337% (118)1763.08 (119)#52 (.12)39% (34)22.137% (25)40% (60)2.88 (13)50.11.61.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
STAN#114 (.1)40% (101)41% (95)2.72 (116)13439% (98)1913.67 (92)#120 (.27)47% (119)45% (92)48% (124)4.53 (124)491.81.3
UNC#65 (.2)42% (80)47% (34)3.32 (22)17537% (114)2164.08 (52)#70 (.17)41% (53)44% (82)37% (26)4.01 (90)59.81.21.2



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Offense917.81235.6%2.951.617308832262.646%52%36%37%18%.04
UNC Defense822.127.338.8%2.881.1 - - - - - 46%54%37%40%16%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
STAN Defense930.134.845.3%3.221 - - - - - 42%57%46%45%13%.2
UNC Offense819.420.339%3.081.617299123176453%46%41%37%16%.06

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Stanford929:5617.134%56%6.157.31.614.11.8124.8
North Carolina829:0316.532%77%5.150.11.61.15.12.1029.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Offense946% (99)36% (127)31.882.82.66 (119)-.03 (126)2.13 (126)77% (34)10% (102)0.86 (115)
UNC Defense846% (27)37% (25) - - - - .03 (33)2.38 (30)93% (136)10% (60)0.88 (35)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
STAN Defense942% (7)46% (117) - - - - .04 (35)3.11 (115)77% (109)7% (127)0.82 (15)
UNC Offense853% (48)41% (92)30.8123.149 (107).04 (105)3.08 (37)71% (73)11% (106)0.85 (120)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Offense952% (44)37% (119)18.632.4225.7712.210 (106)10 (60).18 (95)1.5 (68)33% (98)23% (127).14 (119)8% (123)1.8 (109)
UNC Defense854% (111)40% (60) - - - - - - 5 (75).21 (63)1.4 (31)32% (63)26% (24).19 (32)6% (84)1.7 (7)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
STAN Defense957% (131)45% (107) - - - - - - 3 (132).34 (112)1.5 (71)32% (71)35% (123).34 (91)6% (73)1.9 (34)
UNC Offense846% (91)37% (118)18.128.8175.56.19.78 (121)6 (34).13 (116)1.5 (84)28% (24)27% (102).22 (97)6% (57)1.6 (134)

Stanford's Power Ratings
Stanford's Power Rating: -5.66  #93
Stanford's Offense Rating: 1.14  #120
Stanford's Defense Rating: 6.80  #70
2025 Talent Rating: 854.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 9%  #42
Stanford's 2025 Expected Record: 3.6 - 8.4
Stanford's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.1  #115
Stanford's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #117
Stanford's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #100

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -5.66   North Carolina: 0.68

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stanford: -12.1   North Carolina: -5.1




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 0.68  #69
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 3.42  #105
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 1.96  #37
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 4.6 - 7.4
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1  #89
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2  #118
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3  #55

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Stanford Scoring
Offense: 17.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 12
Defense: 30.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.8

Stanford's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 6
Record vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 26
Stanford 17


Total Points: 43

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 25
Stanford 18

Total Points: 43

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 26
Stanford 20

Total Points: 46
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.3

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 5
Record vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201612/30North Carolina23Stanford25Stanford -2.5North Carolina55.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina010 Overs
Stanford101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#93) STAN at (#69) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSTANUNC
Power RatePwr #93 #69
SP+SP+ #115 #89
Perf GradeGrade #125 #80
OffenseOff #117 #108
DefenseDef #128 #43
Spec TeamsST #44 #34
TalentTal #39 #17
Blue ChipsBC% #42 #29
Stanford Notes
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/22) QB Gulbranson inj vs FSU, ? for Miami game
(10/19) Huge W vs FSU, box score L but held on. 3-2 run now
(9/21) Run Off 31 car, 35 yds vs Stan, QB much better
(8/24) Pass game was beyond awful vs Hawaii Wk 0
(8/12) QB1 Gulbranson will start at Hawaii in week 0
(6/30) RBs had zero rush TD's LY, no 500 yd RB in 5+
(6/14) WR top 3 are portals, 2 FCS. Pantelis (Yale) fun
(6/14) RBs Ford & Davis some exp, Tabb a little. Starter?
(6/14) OL has 4 with starting exp, but avg to bad grades
(6/14) QB Brown, Rizk (UCF) some exp, #1 Daniels left
(5/2) TE Roush a reliable target, 70 catches past 2 yrs
Stanford Injury Report
North Carolina Notes
(10/25) Playing much better & still finding ways to lose
(10/21) OT W Boone no longer w/ team, started 1st 3 games
(10/8) Sounds like this Belichick experiment is ending fast
(9/20) Team is a complete joke, fitting for Carolina
(9/1) Worse than even I thought, Def bad G5 level
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
North Carolina Injury Report
Stanford on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Perf GradePerf #117 #43
SuccessSuc #128 #34
ExplosiveExp #85 #41
PPAPPA #127 #52
PowerPwr #120 #37
SP+SP+ #117 #55
Pts POPPO #127 #13
HavocHav #118 #74
Stanford Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #65 #54
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #25
Run ExplRExp #115 #35
PPAExp #126 #33
Run BlockR Blk #111 -
OL YdsOLY #126 #30
Stuff RateStuff #97 #46
TackleTak -  #43
Stanford Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
STAN OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #124 #66
Pass SuccessPSuc #119 #60
Pass ExplPExl #68 #31
PPAExp #95 #63
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #127 #34
F7 HavocF7 #102 #60
DB HavocDB #123 #84
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUNC OffSTAN Def
Perf GradePerf #108 #128
SuccessSuc #113 #117
ExplosiveExp #125 #67
PPAPPA #120 #102
PowerPwr #105 #70
SP+SP+ #118 #100
Pts POPPO #119 #25
HavocHav #83 #119
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
UNC OffSTAN Def
Run GameRun #110 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #92 #117
Run ExplRExp #120 #15
PPAExp #105 #35
Run BlockR Blk #51 -
OL YdsOLY #37 #115
Stuff RateStuff #17 #123
TackleTak -  #119
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatUNC OffSTAN Def
Pass GamePass #111 #108
Pass SuccessPSuc #118 #107
Pass ExplPExl #84 #71
PPAExp #116 #112
Pass Block/RushP Blk #51 #121
F7 HavocF7 #106 #127
DB HavocDB #57 #73
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

STAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 64° - Wind: 6 mph
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
STAN's OC TBD (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Ben Gulbranson (Tr)14826057%18139107.0
Elijah Brown193161%218107.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Micah Ford9942534.375
Cole Tabb9537924.028
Sedrick Irvin278013.015
Tuna Altahir (Tr)155503.79
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Williams48606412.636
Bryce Farrell25413116.568
Sam Roush37409211.169
Caden High (Tr)22278112.634

View Stanford's Full Roster

STAN's DC Bobby April (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matt Rose755113
Scotty Edwards474311
Jahsiah Galvan350002
Charlie Eckhardt300012
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Clay Patterson235441
Scotty Edwards474311
Zach Johnson (Tr)283221
Hunter Barth (Tr)263221
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaivion Green281005
Brandon Nicholson110004
Matt Rose755113

UNC's OC Freddie Kitchens (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Giovanni Lopez9915763%1021656.5
Max Johnson467264%383205.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June6441626.550
Benjamin Hall (Tr)5020324.118
Davion Gause4116224.025
Giovanni Lopez5712522.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp35384311.039
Kobe Paysour14232116.644
Demon June1211719.872
Javarius Green8110013.839

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Khmori House (Tr)412030
Kaleb Cost361004
Andrew Simpson (Tr)366211
Will Hardy272000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr)258750
Tyler Thompson155410
Andrew Simpson (Tr)366211
C.J. Mims (Tr)243200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen181005
Jaiden Patterson211004
Kaleb Cost361004