Notre Dame at North Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC

 
Fighting Irish (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (43 - 12)
Avg Score : 42 - 18 (38 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#134)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
UNC coming off BYE
Our Line: Notre Dame -25  (SP+ ND -31)
Projected Score: ND: 39 - UNC: 14 (52)
ND Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
ND Travel: 556 miles
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Notre Dame's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 Notre Dame at North Carolina-25
Sat 10/10 Notre Dame vs Stanford-34
Sat 10/17 Notre Dame at BYU-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/7 Notre Dame vs Miami-6
Sat 11/14 Notre Dame vs Boston College-34
Sat 11/21 Notre Dame vs SMU-17.5
Sat 11/28 Notre Dame at Syracuse-31.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#4 (.36)49% (10)4247% (25)3.05 (50)20451% (6)2554.79 (6)#12 (.04)36% (13)17.638% (20)36% (16)2.58 (6)53.10.81.9
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense124238.249%4.790.8234602042555.953%45%47%51%13%.36
UNC Defense1224.52640.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense1217.61736.4%2.581.9 - - - - - 43%56%38%36%18%.04
UNC Offense1219.32138.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame1229:1722.548%55%5.553.10.81.95.82.8732.5
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense1253% (38)47% (25)34.8204.45.938 (11).25 (11)3.05 (50)62% (122)8% (36)1.16 (8)
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense1243% (7)38% (20) - - - - .04 (37)2.74 (39)71% (66)9% (77)0.89 (32)
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense1245% (95)51% (6)18.126.8255.19.514.125 (33)6 (34).45 (10)1.7 (25)29% (37)44% (2).65 (3)5% (35)2 (65)
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense1256% (133)36% (16) - - - - - - 21 (1).09 (8)1.6 (93)36% (9)26% (24).17 (17)9% (3)2.1 (84)
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 29.01  #2
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 30.81  #2
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -2.34  #2
2026 Talent Rating: 1178.00  #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 57%  #8
Notre Dame's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Notre Dame's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 24.4  #5
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.0  #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3  #13

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 884
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 29.01   North Carolina: 1.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 24.4   North Carolina: -6.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.485  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 42 PPG
Offense on Road: 38.2
Defense: 17.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Notre Dame's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 39
North Carolina 14

Projected Total Points: 52
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202209/24North Carolina32Notre Dame45North Carolina -2.5Notre Dame55.0Over
202110/30Notre Dame44North Carolina34Notre Dame -3.5Notre Dame63.0Over
202011/27North Carolina17Notre Dame31Notre Dame -4.5Notre Dame69.5Under
201710/07North Carolina10Notre Dame33Notre Dame -13Notre Dame63.5Under
201410/11Notre Dame50North Carolina43Notre Dame -16North Carolina0
200810/11North Carolina29Notre Dame24
200611/04Notre Dame45North Carolina26
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina112 Overs
Notre Dame642 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 31 - 41 - 20 - 2
Road Teams3 - 44 - 12 - 02 - 1

(#2) ND at (#45) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #2 #45
SP+SP+ #5 #91
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #2 #13
Blue ChipsBC% #8 #29
Notre Dame Notes
(1/25) Freeman, Denbrock, QB Carr all back. Big year.
(1/25) Losing DB coach Mickens is a big loss
Notre Dame Injury Report
Notre Dame on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #10 #60
ExplosiveExp #3 #62
PPAPPA #4 #78
PowerPwr #2 #32
SP+SP+ #4 #58
Pts POPPO #6 #61
HavocHav #36 #91
Notre Dame Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #25 #64
Run ExplRExp #8 #88
PPAExp #11 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #50 #37
Stuff RateStuff #101 #99
TackleTak - NR
Notre Dame Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #6 #50
Pass ExplPExl #25 #17
PPAExp #10 #51
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #36 #70
DB HavocDB #35 #90
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffND Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #13
ExplosiveExp #121 #85
PPAPPA #119 #12
PowerPwr #67 #2
SP+SP+ #123 #13
Pts POPPO #108 #6
HavocHav #94 #19
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffND Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #20
Run ExplRExp #127 #32
PPAExp #130 #37
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #39
Stuff RateStuff #67 #74
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffND Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #16
Pass ExplPExl #103 #93
PPAExp #92 #8
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #77
DB HavocDB #55 #3
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Title Contenders
'26 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ND's OC Mike Denbrock (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
C.J. Carr19529367%27412469.4
Jordan Faison11100%400040.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Aneyas Williams2422459.354
Nolan James Jr.143702.615
C.J. Carr413330.828
Jordan Faison1-80-8.00
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Faison49640413.154
Micah Gilbert993110.326
Mylan Graham (Tr)693015.523
Luke Talich184184.084

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Chris Ash (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drayk Bowen675423
Adon Shuler522125
Jaiden Ausberry514250
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa488352
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Boubacar Traore3710780
Drayk Bowen675423
Jaylen Sneed355330
Keon Keeley (Tr)133311
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Gray1810010
Leonard Moore310007
Adon Shuler522125

UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002