NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
North Carolina -2.5 (54.5) (-125) Open: -3.5 | 55.5
NC State 35 - North Carolina: 30 (ACC)
Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
NCST 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: North Carolina -2.5 (SP+ UNC -1)
Projected Score: NCST: 28 - UNC: 31 (59)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 20 miles
Our Line: North Carolina -2.5 (SP+ UNC -1)
Projected Score: NCST: 28 - UNC: 31 (59)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 20 miles
Tar Heels (6 - 7) (2 - 10 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 6) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Coach Mack Brown (38 - 27)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (36 - 33 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 6) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
| NC State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | NC State vs Western Carolina | -32.5 | 60.5 | W 38 - 21 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | NC State vs Tennessee | +10.0 | 60.5 | L 10 - 51 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | NC State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5 | 47.5 | W 30 - 20 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | NC State at Clemson | +17.0 | 44.0 | L 35 - 59 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | NC State vs Northern Illinois | -7.0 | 46.0 | W 24 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | NC State vs Wake Forest | -4.0 | 52.5 | L 30 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | NC State vs Syracuse | +1.0 | 51.5 | L 17 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | NC State at California | +9.5 | 46.0 | W 24 - 23 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/2 | NC State vs Stanford | -10.0 | 46.5 | W 59 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/9 | NC State vs Duke | -3.5 | 51.5 | L 19 - 29 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Thu 11/21 | NC State at Georgia Tech | +7.5 | 51.5 | L 29 - 30 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | NC State at North Carolina | +2.5 | 54.5 | W 35 - 30 | O | Y | |
| Sat 12/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -7.5 | 61.5 | L 21 - 26 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
| North Carolina's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | North Carolina at Minnesota | -2.0 | 52.5 | W 19 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | North Carolina vs Charlotte | -21.5 | 47.5 | W 38 - 20 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | North Carolina vs North Carolina Central | -37.5 | 57.5 | W 45 - 10 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | North Carolina vs James Madison | -10.0 | 48.0 | L 50 - 70 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | North Carolina at Duke | -1.0 | 55.5 | L 20 - 21 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | North Carolina vs Pittsburgh | +2.5 | 63.0 | L 24 - 34 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | +3.5 | 60.5 | L 34 - 41 | O | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/26 | North Carolina at Virginia | +3.5 | 58.5 | W 41 - 14 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/2 | North Carolina at Florida State | -2.5 | 50.5 | W 35 - 11 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/16 | North Carolina vs Wake Forest | -10.5 | 64.5 | W 31 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/23 | North Carolina at Boston College | -2.0 | 50.5 | L 21 - 41 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/30 | North Carolina vs NC State | -2.5 | 54.5 | L 30 - 35 | O | N | |
| Sat 12/28 | North Carolina vs UConn | -2.0 | 53.5 | L 14 - 27 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 7, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 7, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 6, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 7, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 6, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST | #26 (.25) | 45% (36) | 28.5 | 44% (68) | 3.24 (36) | 130 | 47% (20) | 215 | 3.97 (61) | #86 (.19) | 41% (59) | 30.2 | 39% (31) | 43% (87) | 3.78 (67) | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| UNC | #65 (.2) | 42% (80) | 30.9 | 47% (34) | 3.32 (22) | 175 | 37% (114) | 216 | 4.08 (52) | #70 (.17) | 41% (53) | 28.1 | 44% (82) | 37% (26) | 4.01 (90) | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST | #26 (.25) | 45% (36) | 44% (68) | 3.24 (36) | 130 | 47% (20) | 215 | 3.97 (61) | #86 (.19) | 41% (59) | 39% (31) | 43% (87) | 3.78 (67) | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 | ||
| UNC | #65 (.2) | 42% (80) | 47% (34) | 3.32 (22) | 175 | 37% (114) | 216 | 4.08 (52) | #70 (.17) | 41% (53) | 44% (82) | 37% (26) | 4.01 (90) | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST Offense | 13 | 28.5 | 30.8 | 45.1% | 3.97 | 1.7 | 19 | 345 | 130 | 215 | 4.4 | 47% | 52% | 44% | 47% | 19% | .25 |
| UNC Defense | 13 | 28.1 | 33.4 | 40.5% | 4.01 | 1.2 | - | - | - | - | - | 53% | 46% | 44% | 37% | 15% | .17 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST Defense | 13 | 30.2 | 35.5 | 40.9% | 3.78 | 1.4 | - | - | - | - | - | 47% | 53% | 39% | 43% | 20% | .19 |
| UNC Offense | 13 | 30.9 | 36 | 42% | 4.08 | 1.2 | 20 | 391 | 175 | 216 | 4.9 | 52% | 47% | 47% | 37% | 15% | .2 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 13 | 29:10 | 18.6 | 37% | 56% | 4.8 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 28.9 |
| North Carolina | 13 | 27:42 | 20.2 | 40% | 50% | 6.8 | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 6 | 29.1 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST Offense | 13 | 47% (89) | 44% (68) | 29.6 | 130.3 | 4.4 | 21 (59) | .15 (56) | 3.24 (36) | 69% (92) | 13% (127) | 0.98 (59) |
| UNC Defense | 13 | 53% (92) | 44% (82) | - | - | - | - | .16 (88) | 3.39 (121) | 86% (130) | 9% (83) | 0.89 (29) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST Defense | 13 | 47% (33) | 39% (31) | - | - | - | - | .2 (111) | 3.07 (83) | 76% (86) | 12% (24) | 1.28 (134) |
| UNC Offense | 13 | 52% (53) | 47% (34) | 35.9 | 175.2 | 4.9 | 26 (36) | .26 (14) | 3.32 (22) | 70% (89) | 9% (54) | 1.06 (36) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST Offense | 13 | 52% (48) | 47% (20) | 18.2 | 28.1 | 214.8 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 18 (68) | 12 (85) | .36 (24) | 1.6 (45) | 30% (35) | 36% (24) | .57 (5) | 6% (83) | 2.2 (19) |
| UNC Defense | 13 | 46% (38) | 37% (26) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9 (76) | .22 (64) | 1.8 (125) | 32% (66) | 26% (12) | .23 (35) | 5% (103) | 2.2 (99) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCST Defense | 13 | 53% (106) | 43% (87) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (93) | .19 (47) | 1.5 (22) | 33% (49) | 30% (65) | .33 (83) | 8% (16) | 2.3 (120) |
| UNC Offense | 13 | 47% (82) | 37% (114) | 16.8 | 29 | 215.9 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 17 (79) | 8 (40) | .17 (101) | 1.7 (29) | 32% (74) | 29% (94) | .32 (78) | 6% (60) | 2.1 (33) |
NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: -0.50 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
NC State's Power Rating: -0.50 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: -0.50 North Carolina: 4.235
SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 3.9 North Carolina: 5.0
NC State: -0.50 North Carolina: 4.235
SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 3.9 North Carolina: 5.0
North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.235 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.235 #68
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
North Carolina's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Carolina's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5
NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.8
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.5
NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 31
NC State 28
Total Points: 59
North Carolina 31
NC State 28
Total Points: 59
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4
North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.4
North Carolina's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 7 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 8 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/30 | North Carolina | 30 | NC State | 35 | NC State | North Carolina -2.5 | NC State | 54.5 | Over |
| 2023 | 11/25 | NC State | 39 | North Carolina | 20 | NC State | North Carolina -2 | NC State | 55.0 | Over |
| 2022 | 11/25 | North Carolina | 27 | NC State | 30 | NC State | North Carolina -6.5 | NC State | 56.0 | Over |
| 2021 | 11/26 | NC State | 34 | North Carolina | 30 | NC State | NC State -6.5 | North Carolina | 62.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/24 | North Carolina | 48 | NC State | 21 | North Carolina | North Carolina -15.0 | North Carolina | 62.0 | Over |
| 2019 | 11/30 | NC State | 10 | North Carolina | 41 | North Carolina | North Carolina -11 | North Carolina | 57.0 | Under |
| 2018 | 11/24 | North Carolina | 28 | NC State | 34 | NC State | NC State -7.5 | North Carolina | 61.5 | Over |
| 2017 | 11/25 | NC State | 33 | North Carolina | 21 | NC State | NC State -14.5 | North Carolina | 57.0 | Under |
| 2016 | 11/25 | North Carolina | 21 | NC State | 28 | NC State | North Carolina -10 | NC State | 63.0 | Under |
| 2015 | 11/28 | NC State | 34 | North Carolina | 45 | North Carolina | North Carolina -6 | North Carolina | 65.0 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/29 | North Carolina | 7 | NC State | 35 | NC State | North Carolina -6 | NC State | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/02 | NC State | 19 | North Carolina | 27 | North Carolina | North Carolina -3 | North Carolina | 0 | |
| 2012 | 10/27 | North Carolina | 43 | NC State | 35 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2011 | 11/05 | NC State | 13 | North Carolina | 0 | NC State | ||||
| 2010 | 11/20 | North Carolina | 25 | NC State | 29 | NC State | ||||
| 2009 | 11/28 | NC State | 28 | North Carolina | 27 | NC State | ||||
| 2008 | 11/22 | North Carolina | 10 | NC State | 41 | NC State | ||||
| 2007 | 11/10 | NC State | 31 | North Carolina | 27 | NC State | ||||
| 2006 | 11/18 | North Carolina | 23 | NC State | 9 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2005 | 09/24 | NC State | 24 | North Carolina | 31 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2004 | 10/09 | North Carolina | 30 | NC State | 24 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2003 | 09/27 | NC State | 47 | North Carolina | 34 | NC State | ||||
| 2002 | 10/12 | North Carolina | 17 | NC State | 34 | NC State | ||||
| 2001 | 09/29 | NC State | 9 | North Carolina | 17 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2000 | 10/13 | North Carolina | 20 | NC State | 38 | NC State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 9 | 7 | 7 Overs |
| NC State | 16 | 5 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 11 - 14 | 3 - 9 | 1 - 6 | 2 - 3 |
| Road Teams | 14 - 11 | 9 - 3 | 3 - 2 | 6 - 1 |
(#66) NC State Info
Power Rating: -0.50 #66
Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
NC State has lost 2 straight
NC State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 2 (3 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
NC State Notes
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
NC State Highlights
NC State Front 7 is disruptive (#94)
NC State Secondary is very good (#80)
NC State commits very few Penalties (#75)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State has a bad TO Margin (#11)
NC State Fumbles a Lot (#1)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
NC State Does Not Stuff Runs (#42)
Power Rating: -0.50 #66
Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14% #33
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
NC State has lost 2 straight
NC State has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 2 (3 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )
NC State Notes
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
NC State Highlights
NC State Front 7 is disruptive (#94)
NC State Secondary is very good (#80)
NC State commits very few Penalties (#75)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State has a bad TO Margin (#11)
NC State Fumbles a Lot (#1)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
NC State Does Not Stuff Runs (#42)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | UNC | NCST |
| OverallOver | #51 | #37 |
| OffenseOff | #56 | #49 |
| DefenseDef | #77 | #36 |
| Special TeamsST | #9 | #79 |
| PassingPass | #82 | #33 |
| RushingRush | #13 | #79 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #29 | #20 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #47 | #10 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #67 | #65 |
| TacklingTkl | #36 | #37 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #65 | #43 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #56 | #51 |
| Coverage DefCov | #83 | #43 |
Rematch from Week 14
North Carolina -2.5 (54.5)
NC State won at North Carolina this year (35-30)
Previous Matchups
NC State beat North Carolina last year (35-30)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2023 (39-20)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2022 (30-27)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: NCST | UNC
Depth Chart: NCST | UNC
Rosters: NCST | UNC
(#68) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 4.235 #68
Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 1 straight
North Carolina has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 4 (0 - 7 - 0 vs Spread)
North Carolina Notes
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)
North Carolina Defense Sacks the QB a lot
North Carolina has a good pass defense (#98)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina pass game is really bad (#86)
North Carolina Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)
Power Rating: 4.235 #68
Offense Rating: 17.90 #86
Defense Rating: 10.65 #77
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0 #49
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #38
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 26 #22
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 1 straight
North Carolina has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 4 (0 - 7 - 0 vs Spread)
North Carolina Notes
(11/26) Mack Brown fired at the end of 2024 season
(11/25) Rgame sucks, Criswell 3 INTs, Run Def awful vs BC
(11/18) 3 str W's vs bad teams. Rgame/Hampton great
(10/13) Run Def mauled by GT (371, 7.7 ypc). Gag again
(9/28) Blew 20-0 lead vs Duke. Even game, 10 flags hurt
(9/22) Def all. 600+ yds & 70 pts in JMU loss at home
(9/18) QB Jacolby Criswell looks like starter now
(9/1) RB Hampton great, played B1G ball @ Minn, QB real ?
(8/29) QB Johnson looks out for season (Minn game)
(8/5) Teams are crootin NC commits, Brown done TY?
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina has a top Offensive Line (#94)
North Carolina does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#83)
North Carolina Defense Sacks the QB a lot
North Carolina has a good pass defense (#98)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina Commits a Lot of Penalties (#25)
North Carolina pass game is really bad (#86)
North Carolina Defense Gives up a Lot of Points at Home
North Carolina Does Not Stuff Runs (#15)
North Carolina has a bad defensive line (#4)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Bailey | 196 | 302 | 65% | 2412 | 17 | 10 | 8.0 |
| Grayson McCall (Tr) | 53 | 80 | 66% | 518 | 3 | 2 | 6.5 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylan Smothers | 89 | 571 | 6 | 6.4 | 53 |
| Jordan Waters (Tr) | 95 | 470 | 4 | 4.9 | 94 |
| Kendrick Raphael | 78 | 425 | 3 | 5.4 | 40 |
| CJ Bailey | 99 | 279 | 5 | 2.8 | 31 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Joly (Tr) | 43 | 661 | 4 | 15.4 | 40 |
| Noah Rogers (Tr) | 35 | 478 | 1 | 13.7 | 75 |
| Kevin Concepcion | 53 | 459 | 6 | 8.7 | 42 |
| Wesley Grimes (Tr) | 24 | 319 | 1 | 13.3 | 30 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brown | 95 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Donovan Kaufman (Tr) | 74 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Devon Betty | 61 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Aydan White | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davin Vann | 41 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Travali Price | 37 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Sean Brown | 95 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Devon Betty | 61 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Fitzgerald | 55 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Devon Marshall (Tr) | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Tamarcus Cooley (Tr) | 39 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacolby Criswell (Tr) | 186 | 320 | 58% | 2459 | 15 | 6 | 7.7 |
| Conner Harrell | 21 | 37 | 57% | 282 | 2 | 1 | 7.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 281 | 1660 | 15 | 5.9 | 75 |
| Davion Gause | 67 | 326 | 4 | 4.9 | 21 |
| Jacolby Criswell (Tr) | 71 | 103 | 3 | 1.5 | 20 |
| Charleston French | 10 | 84 | 1 | 8.4 | 45 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Jones | 36 | 582 | 6 | 16.2 | 53 |
| John Copenhaver | 40 | 414 | 4 | 10.4 | 35 |
| Omarion Hampton | 38 | 373 | 2 | 9.8 | 49 |
| Kobe Paysour | 21 | 365 | 0 | 17.4 | 36 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antavious Lane | 74 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Power Echols | 73 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Amare Campbell | 69 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Jakeen Harris (Tr) | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beau Atkinson | 35 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Kaimon Rucker | 30 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Amare Campbell | 69 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Desmond Evans | 34 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alijah Huzzie | 36 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| Power Echols | 73 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Jakeen Harris (Tr) | 67 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |