North Carolina at Virginia - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia CavaliersVirginia logo
Saturday, November 21st 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Scott Stadium - Charlottesville, VA

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UVA 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -12  (SP+ UVA -18)
Projected Score: UNC: 18 - UVA: 30 (48)
UVA Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
UNC Travel: 150 miles
Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (22 - 26)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#15)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Virginia's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 Virginia vs NC State-3.5
Sat 9/12 Virginia vs Norfolk State-32
Sat 9/19 Virginia at West Virginia-8
Sat 9/26 Virginia vs Delaware-24.5
Sat 10/3 Virginia at Florida State+2
Sat 10/10 Virginia vs Syracuse-18.5
Sat 10/17 Virginia at SMU+6
Fri 10/23 Virginia vs Duke-6.5
Sat 10/31 Virginia at Wake Forest+0
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14 Virginia vs California-10.5
Sat 11/21 Virginia vs North Carolina-12
Sat 11/28 Virginia at Virginia Tech-8

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
UVA#64 (.18)42% (82)30.844% (63)3.04 (53)18041% (79)2393.56 (82)#17 (.06)37% (20)19.639% (30)37% (22)3.01 (17)44.111.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
UVA Defense1419.617.737.4%3.011.4 - - - - - 51%47%39%37%18%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
UVA Offense1430.836.441.6%3.561224191802394.650%49%44%41%14%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Virginia1432:1621.650%47%5.344.111.44.82.1330.7
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)
UVA Defense1451% (77)39% (30) - - - - .04 (33)2.75 (42)71% (70)9% (77)0.92 (46)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
UVA Offense1450% (66)44% (63)38.9179.94.629 (11).19 (30)3.04 (53)81% (11)8% (23)1.06 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)
UVA Defense1447% (53)37% (22) - - - - - - 14 (38).15 (24)1.5 (44)32% (59)23% (3).11 (8)9% (5)1.9 (25)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
UVA Offense1449% (71)41% (79)22.535.1239.16.810.618 (50)10 (60).24 (76)1.5 (73)32% (85)33% (34).36 (46)6% (65)1.9 (114)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.57  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 4.57   Virginia: 10.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6   Virginia: 11.1




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 10.9  #39
Virginia's Offense Rating: 11.32  #64
Virginia's Defense Rating: 10.62  #29
2026 Talent Rating: 820.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
Virginia's 2026 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1  #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1  #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 30
North Carolina 18

Projected Total Points: 48
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25North Carolina16Virginia17Virginia -12.5North Carolina51.5Under
202410/26Virginia14North Carolina41Virginia -3.5North Carolina58.5Under
202310/21North Carolina27Virginia31North Carolina -24Virginia58.0Push
202211/05Virginia28North Carolina31North Carolina -7Virginia61.5Under
202109/18North Carolina59Virginia39North Carolina -7.5North Carolina67.0Over
202010/31Virginia44North Carolina41North Carolina -7.0Virginia0
201911/02North Carolina31Virginia38Virginia -1Virginia48.0Over
201810/27Virginia31North Carolina21Virginia -7.5Virginia51.0Over
201710/14North Carolina14Virginia20Virginia -3Virginia54.5Under
201610/22Virginia14North Carolina35North Carolina -9North Carolina68.5Under
201510/24North Carolina26Virginia13North Carolina -12North Carolina58.0Under
201410/25Virginia27North Carolina28Virginia -7.5North Carolina0
201311/09North Carolina45Virginia14North Carolina -14North Carolina0
201211/15Virginia13North Carolina37
201109/17North Carolina28Virginia17
201010/16Virginia10North Carolina44
200910/03North Carolina3Virginia16
200810/18Virginia16North Carolina13
200709/15North Carolina20Virginia22
200610/19Virginia23North Carolina0
200510/22North Carolina7Virginia5
200409/11Virginia56North Carolina24
200310/04North Carolina13Virginia38
200210/19Virginia37North Carolina27
200110/13North Carolina30Virginia24
200010/27Virginia17North Carolina6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia1463 Overs
North Carolina1276 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 137 - 64 - 33 - 3
Road Teams13 - 136 - 73 - 33 - 4

(#45) UNC at (#39) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCUVA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #45 #39
SP+SP+ #91 #31
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #13 #47
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #65
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #20
ExplosiveExp #121 #35
PPAPPA #119 #17
PowerPwr #67 #29
SP+SP+ #123 #19
Pts POPPO #108 #17
HavocHav #94 #23
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #30
Run ExplRExp #127 #46
PPAExp #130 #33
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #42
Stuff RateStuff #67 #68
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #22
Pass ExplPExl #103 #44
PPAExp #92 #24
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #77
DB HavocDB #55 #5
Virginia on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #82 #60
ExplosiveExp #43 #62
PPAPPA #64 #78
PowerPwr #64 #32
SP+SP+ #56 #58
Pts POPPO #82 #61
HavocHav #39 #91
Virginia Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
UVA OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #64
Run ExplRExp #31 #88
PPAExp #30 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #53 #37
Stuff RateStuff #32 #99
TackleTak - NR
Virginia Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatUVA OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #79 #50
Pass ExplPExl #73 #17
PPAExp #76 #51
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #23 #70
DB HavocDB #65 #90
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Virginia beat North Carolina last year (17-16)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2024 (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)

  
UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)18227067%19461197.2
Eli Holstein (Tr)7712562%10811268.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)14075245.472
Solomon Beebe (Tr)5633866.081
Beau Pribula (Tr)9529763.149
Peyton Lewis (Tr)7029074.132
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacquon Gibson (Tr)6361609.850
Jahmal Edrine46564112.337
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)40412310.348
Tyson Davis (Tr)25323212.936

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Jones (Tr)665001
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Brandyn Hillman (Tr)493003
Landon Danley481010
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zion Wilson (Tr)4210641
Nnanna Anyanwu (Tr)217541
Fisher Camac446424
Jason Hammond333340
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fisher Camac446424
Jalen McNair (Tr)502014
Justin Ross (Tr)322134