North Carolina at Wake Forest - 2022 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Saturday, November 12th 2022 (7:30 PM EST)
Wake Forest -4.5 (79.0)
North Carolina 36 - Wake Forest: 34 (ACC)

Tar Heels (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (21 - 17)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Road Game
WAKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -2.5 (SP+ WAKE -0)
Projected Score: UNC: 19 - WAKE: 26 (45)
WAKE Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 69 miles

Demon Deacons (8 - 5) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dave Clawson (51 - 48)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (28 - 17 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
WAKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/27	North Carolina vs Florida A&M	-45.0	55.0	W 56 - 24	O	N
Sat 9/3	North Carolina at App State	+3.0	56.0	W 63 - 61	O	Y
Sat 9/10	North Carolina at Georgia State	-7.0	64.0	W 35 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24	North Carolina vs Notre Dame	-2.5	55.0	L 32 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/1	North Carolina vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	57.0	W 41 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/8	North Carolina at Miami	+4.0	67.5	W 27 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/15	North Carolina at Duke	-7.0	70.0	W 38 - 35	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29	North Carolina vs Pittsburgh	-2.5	65.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/5	North Carolina at Virginia	-7.0	61.5	W 31 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/12	North Carolina at Wake Forest	+4.5	79.0	W 36 - 34	U	Y
Sat 11/19	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-21.5	63.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Fri 11/25	North Carolina vs NC State	-6.5	56.0	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 12/3	North Carolina vs Clemson	+7.5	64.0	L 10 - 39	U	N
Wed 12/28	North Carolina vs Oregon	+13.0	76.0	L 27 - 28	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Wake Forest's 2022 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 9/1	Wake Forest vs VMI	-33.5	66.5	W 44 - 10	U	Y
Sat 9/10	Wake Forest at Vanderbilt	-13.5	65.5	W 45 - 25	O	Y
Sat 9/17	Wake Forest vs Liberty	-17.5	64.0	W 37 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/24	Wake Forest vs Clemson	+7.5	58.0	L 45 - 51	O	Y
Sat 10/1	Wake Forest at Florida State	+6.0	67.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/8	Wake Forest vs Army	-16.0	65.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22	Wake Forest vs Boston College	-20.0	60.0	W 43 - 15	U	Y
Sat 10/29	Wake Forest at Louisville	-3.0	66.5	L 21 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/5	Wake Forest at NC State	-3.0	54.0	L 21 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/12	Wake Forest vs North Carolina	-4.5	79.0	L 34 - 36	U	N
Sat 11/19	Wake Forest vs Syracuse	-9.5	58.5	W 45 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/26	Wake Forest at Duke	-3.0	67.0	L 31 - 34	U	N
Fri 12/23	Wake Forest vs Missouri	-3.0	59.0	W 27 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.28	46%	19.3	51%	3.43	213	41%	256	4.53	.26	46%	24.5	49%	43%	4.24	69.2	1.1	1.2
WAKE	.3	45%	28.1	44%	3.08	161	47%	307	4.88	.26	47%	22.1	50%	43%	3.88	52.6	1.4	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WAKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	19.3	17.5	46.3%	4.53	1.1	24	468	213	256	5.4	52%	48%	51%	41%	17%	.28
WAKE Defense	14	22.1	17.3	46.8%	3.88	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	50%	43%	20%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	24.5	23	45.9%	4.24	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	49%	43%	15%	.26
WAKE Offense	14	28.1	28.3	45.4%	4.88	1.4	25	468	161	307	4	46%	54%	44%	47%	16%	.3

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	29:41	23.8	43%	58%	7.3	69.2	1.1	1.2	5.5	2.2	0	28.7
Wake Forest	14	28:42	25.3	50%	60%	5.8	52.6	1.4	2.2	6.9	2.7	2	30.5

Run Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52%	51%	39.5	212.7	5.4	30	.37	3.43	71%	12%	1.21
WAKE Defense	14	54%	50%	-	-	-	-	.29	3.37	71%	14%	1.09

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53%	49%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.29	82%	9%	0.95
WAKE Offense	14	46%	44%	40.4	160.5	4	31	.16	3.08	73%	8%	0.94

Pass Game Stats (2022)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	48%	41%	18.2	29.4	255.7	8.7	14	26	9	.22	1.6	30%	38%	.54	5%	2.2
WAKE Defense	14	46%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.22	1.6	30%	37%	.43	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.36	1.7	30%	29%	.35	6%	2.1
WAKE Offense	14	54%	47%	21.6	37.1	307.4	8.3	14.3	39	15	.43	1.7	31%	38%	.52	8%	2

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8 #46
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0 #104

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: Wake Forest: 6.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 7.8 Wake Forest: 8.2

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 6.6 NR
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: NR
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating: #68
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Wake Forest's 2022 Expected Record: -
Wake Forest's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.2 #43
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 43.3 #6
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.2 #106

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Wake Forest 26
North Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 45

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Wake Forest's 2022 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/15	Wake Forest	28	North Carolina	12	Wake Forest -3.5	Wake Forest	37.5	Over
2024	11/16	North Carolina	31	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina -10.5	Wake Forest	64.5	Under
2022	11/12	Wake Forest	34	North Carolina	36	Wake Forest -4.5	North Carolina	79.0	Under
2021	11/06	North Carolina	58	Wake Forest	55	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	78.0	Over
2020	11/14	North Carolina	59	Wake Forest	53	North Carolina -13	Wake Forest	70.5	Over
2019	09/13	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	18	Wake Forest -3	Wake Forest	65.0	Under
2015	10/17	North Carolina	50	Wake Forest	14	North Carolina -14	North Carolina	53.5	Over
2012	09/08	Wake Forest	28	North Carolina	27
2011	10/29	North Carolina	49	Wake Forest	24
2007	10/27	Wake Forest	37	North Carolina	10
2006	10/28	North Carolina	17	Wake Forest	24
2004	11/13	Wake Forest	24	North Carolina	31
2003	11/08	North Carolina	42	Wake Forest	34
2002	10/26	Wake Forest	31	North Carolina	0
2001	11/10	North Carolina	31	Wake Forest	32
2000	09/08	Wake Forest	14	North Carolina	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wake Forest	7	4	4 Overs
North Carolina	9	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 5	4 - 3	4 - 3	0 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 11	3 - 4	0 - 0	3 - 4

(#) UNC at (#) WAKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	WAKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#46	#43
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#7
OffenseOff	#43	#11
DefenseDef	#102	#11
Spec TeamsST	#25	#86
TalentTal	#16	#68
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

North Carolina Injury Report

Wake Forest Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#43	#11
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#106
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#62	#7
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#37

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#78	#2
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Wake Forest on Offense


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#11	#102
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#6	#104
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Wake Forest Run Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#104	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#20

Wake Forest Pass Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#4	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#41	#62
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Wake Forest -4.5 (79.0)
North Carolina won at Wake Forest this year (36-34)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat North Carolina last year (28-12)
North Carolina beat Wake Forest in 2024 (31-24)

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD