North Carolina at West Virginia - 2023 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo   North Carolina Tar Heels vs West Virginia Mountaineers  West Virginia logo
Wednesday, December 27th 2023 (5:30 PM EST)
West Virginia -4.5 (62.0) (-160)  Open: -3.0 | 56.5
West Virginia 30 - North Carolina: 10  (Duke's Mayo Bowl)

 
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: North Carolina -5.5  (SP+ UNC -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 30 - WVU: 25 (55)
WVU Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 112 miles
Mountaineers (9 - 4) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Neal Brown (24 - 26)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (23 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#54)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
West Virginia's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 West Virginia at Penn State+21.048.0L 15 - 38ON
Sat 9/9 West Virginia vs Duquesne-38.555.5W 56 - 17OY
Sat 9/16 West Virginia vs Pittsburgh-2.548.0W 17 - 6UY
Sat 9/23 West Virginia vs Texas Tech+6.053.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/30 West Virginia at TCU+14.052.0W 24 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/12 West Virginia at Houston-3.049.5L 39 - 41ON
Sat 10/21 West Virginia vs Oklahoma State-3.048.0L 34 - 48ON
Sat 10/28 West Virginia at UCF+6.559.5W 41 - 28OY
Sat 11/4 West Virginia vs BYU-13.048.5W 37 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 West Virginia at Oklahoma+13.559.5L 20 - 59ON
Sat 11/18 West Virginia vs Cincinnati-4.552.5W 42 - 21OY
Sat 11/25 West Virginia at Baylor-6.553.5W 34 - 31ON
Wed 12/27 West Virginia vs North Carolina-4.562.0W 30 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for West Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.346%19.345%3.1815347%3094.47.2948%24.549%48%4.5155.311.1
WVU.2143%21.845%3.0817242%2274.2.2144%30.845%43%3.8531.51.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WVU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1419.317.546.2%4.471254631533094.245%55%45%47%14%.3
WVU Defense1230.828.244.3%3.81.3 - - - - - 48%52%45%43%15%.21
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1424.52348.3%4.511.1 - - - - - 51%49%49%48%12%.29
WVU Offense1221.822.743.3%4.21.5233981722274.648%51%45%42%15%.21

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1429:5524.646%71%6.155.311.13.41.2129.7
West Virginia1231:192341%69%6.4531.51.35.72.2226.9
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1445%45%36.4153.44.224.183.1872%10%1
WVU Defense1248%45% - - - - .133.0776%10%0.99
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1451%49% - - - - .183.2579%6%0.87
WVU Offense1248%45%37.2171.54.624.23.0870%8%1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1455%47%24.637.5309.38.312.6387.411.632%40%.54%1.9
WVU Defense1252%43% - - - - - - 4.31.630%32%.364%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1449%48% - - - - - - 9.411.628%31%.46%2.2
WVU Offense1251%42%21.335.5226.76.410.72012.241.530%34%.327%1.8

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 9.47  #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89  #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64  #81
2023 Talent Rating: 805.63  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44%  #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2  #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8  #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 9.47   West Virginia: 4.435

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 10.2   West Virginia: 5.4




West Virginia's Power Ratings
West Virginia's Power Rating: 4.435  #45
West Virginia's Offense Rating: 20.84  #32
West Virginia's Defense Rating: 11.21  #88
2023 Talent Rating: 666.23  #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #43
West Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 7.30 - 5.70
West Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.4  #44
West Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2  #38
West Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4  #63

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 669.44
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 30
West Virginia 25

Projected Total Points: 55
West Virginia Scoring
Offense: 21.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.7
Defense: 30.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

West Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202312/27West Virginia30North Carolina10West Virginia -4.5West Virginia62.0Under
200812/27North Carolina30West Virginia31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
West Virginia210 Overs
North Carolina001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 11 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams1 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

North Carolina Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Mayo Bowl North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30
2022Holiday Bowl North Carolina vs Oregon+13.076.0L 27 - 28
2021Mayo Bowl North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.557.5L 21 - 38
2020Orange Bowl North Carolina vs Texas A&M+7.067.5L 27 - 41
2019Military Bowl North Carolina vs Temple-6.056.5W 55 - 13
West Virginia Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2023Mayo Bowl West Virginia vs North Carolina-4.562.0W 30 - 10
2021Rate Bowl West Virginia vs Minnesota+5.044.5L 6 - 18
2020Liberty Bowl West Virginia vs Army-9.540.5W 24 - 21
2018World Bowl West Virginia vs Syracuse+3.067.5L 18 - 34
2017Dallas Bowl West Virginia vs Utah+6.556.0L 14 - 30
  
(#25) UNC at (#45) WVU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCWVU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #25 #45
SP+SP+ #27 #44
Perf GradeGrade #35 #46
OffenseOff #34 #31
DefenseDef #47 #85
Spec TeamsST #119 #127
TalentTal #17 #50
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #43
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffWVU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #85
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #20 #88
SP+SP+ #13 #63
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffWVU Def
Run GameRun #26 #61
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #70
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffWVU Def
Pass GamePass #8 #99
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #42 #85
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
West Virginia on Offense
CategoryCatWVU OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #31 #47
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #32 #81
SP+SP+ #38 #71
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
West Virginia Run Game
CategoryCat
WVU OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #6 #57
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #61 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #54
West Virginia Pass Game
CategoryCatWVU OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #28 #37
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #8 #41
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
WVU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bank of America Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
West Virginia -4.5 (62.0)
West Virginia won vs North Carolina this year (30-10)

Previous Matchups
West Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (30-10)

  
UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Maye26942563%36082498.5
Conner Harrell223367%270228.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2531504155.968
Drake Maye11244994.056
British Brooks7437525.153
Conner Harrell227513.461
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones46711315.557
Devontez Walker (Tr)41699717.056
Bryson Nesbit41585514.362
Nate Mccollum (Tr)44469110.748

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cedric Gray12111574
Power Echols1026041
Don Chapman645121
Antavious Lane (Tr)623001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker61159121
Cedric Gray12111574
Beau Atkinson195430
Desmond Evans335375
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen491008
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)421016
Desmond Evans335375

WVU's OC Chad Scott (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Garrett Greene14727853%24061648.7
Nicco Marchiol305357%247234.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jahiem White10984247.753
CJ Donaldson171798114.732
Garrett Greene120772136.448
Justin Johnson3815013.930
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Carter (Tr)27501218.649
Hudson Clement22480421.870
Kole Taylor (Tr)35444412.743
Preston Fox26368214.234

View West Virginia's Full Roster

WVU's DC ShaDon Brown (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Lee Kpogba978381
Anthony Wilson (Tr)802004
Beanie Bishop (Tr)6710020
Ben Cutter566201
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jared Bartlett497521
Tomiwa Durojaiye (Tr)236410
Lee Kpogba978381
Edward Vesterinen285310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Beanie Bishop (Tr)6710020
Marcis Floyd505267
Malachi Ruffin370005