Miami at North Carolina - 2021 Matchup Preview

Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, October 16th 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7.5 (63.5)
North Carolina 45 - Miami: 42 (ACC)

Hurricanes (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (15 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (26 - 15 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 3rd straight Home Game
MIAMI coming off BYE
UNC is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ MIAMI -4.5)
Projected Score: MIAMI: 27 - UNC: 18 (45)
UNC Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
MIAMI Travel: 691 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIAMI Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Miami's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Miami vs Alabama	+19.5	61.5	L 13 - 44	U	N
Sat 9/11	Miami vs App State	-7.5	55.0	W 25 - 23	U	N
Sat 9/18	Miami vs Michigan State	-7.0	57.5	L 17 - 38	U	N
Sat 9/25	Miami vs Central Connecticut	-46.0	55.5	W 69 - 0	O	Y
Thu 9/30	Miami vs Virginia	-3.5	63.5	L 28 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Miami at North Carolina	+7.5	63.5	L 42 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/23	Miami vs NC State	+3.5	54.5	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Miami at Pittsburgh	+9.5	61.0	W 38 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Miami vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	63.0	W 33 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/13	Miami at Florida State	-2.5	61.5	L 28 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/20	Miami vs Virginia Tech	-7.0	55.5	W 38 - 26	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Miami at Duke	-20.5	67.0	W 47 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI	.24	42%	30.9	41%	2.75	164	43%	277	4.27	.2	43%	14.8	46%	40%	3.79	72.2	1.1	1.5
UNC	.41	51%	19.3	52%	3.27	236	49%	301	4.75	.22	42%	24.5	47%	37%	3.82	67.3	1.1	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Offense	11	30.9	26	42.2%	4.27	1.1	23	441	164	277	4.3	49%	51%	41%	43%	20%	.24
UNC Defense	12	24.5	26	42.1%	3.82	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	47%	37%	15%	.22

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIAMI Defense	11	14.8	15	42.9%	3.79	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	46%	40%	20%	.2
UNC Offense	12	19.3	21	50.6%	4.75	1.1	26	537	236	301	5.8	51%	49%	52%	49%	15%	.41

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Miami	11	27:11	22.7	40%	68%	7.8	72.2	1.1	1.5	8.5	2.8	0	27.8
North Carolina	12	30:47	26.3	45%	58%	6.9	67.3	1.1	0.9	5.8	3	0	29.1

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Offense	11	49%	41%	38.1	163.6	4.3	18	.14	2.75	77%	13%	1.06
UNC Defense	12	50%	47%	-	-	-	-	.2	3.14	80%	9%	0.99

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIAMI Defense	11	48%	46%	-	-	-	-	.18	2.72	76%	14%	1.04
UNC Offense	12	51%	52%	41	235.8	5.8	35	.33	3.27	77%	10%	1.19

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Offense	11	51%	43%	21.7	34.6	277.3	8	12.8	26	6	.35	1.7	34%	34%	.44	8%	2.1
UNC Defense	12	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.8	30%	32%	.38	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIAMI Defense	11	52%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.21	1.5	33%	29%	.25	6%	1.9
UNC Offense	12	49%	49%	20.3	29.8	301.4	10.1	14.8	31	8	.5	1.8	27%	39%	.61	5%	2.3

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: NR
Miami's Offense Rating: NR
Miami's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Miami's 2021 Expected Record: -
Miami's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #32
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #25
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Miami: North Carolina: 5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Miami: 10.8 North Carolina: 6.4

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 5.7 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 15

Miami's 2021 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 27
North Carolina 18

Projected Total Points: 45

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/14	North Carolina	41	Miami	31	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	57.5	Over
2022	10/08	Miami	24	North Carolina	27	Miami -4	North Carolina	67.5	Under
2021	10/16	North Carolina	45	Miami	42	North Carolina -7.5	Miami	63.5	Over
2020	12/12	Miami	26	North Carolina	62	Miami -3.0	North Carolina	72.5	Over
2019	09/07	North Carolina	28	Miami	25	Miami -5	North Carolina	46.0	Over
2018	09/27	Miami	47	North Carolina	10	Miami -17.5	Miami	56.0	Over
2017	10/28	North Carolina	19	Miami	24	Miami -21	North Carolina	56.0	Under
2016	10/15	Miami	13	North Carolina	20	Miami -7	North Carolina	67.0	Under
2015	11/14	North Carolina	59	Miami	21	North Carolina -12.5	North Carolina	68.5	Over
2014	11/01	Miami	47	North Carolina	20	Miami -11	Miami	0
2013	10/17	North Carolina	23	Miami	27	Miami -7.5	North Carolina	0
2012	10/13	Miami	14	North Carolina	18
2011	10/15	North Carolina	24	Miami	30
2010	10/23	Miami	33	North Carolina	10
2009	11/14	North Carolina	33	Miami	24
2008	09/27	Miami	24	North Carolina	28
2007	10/06	North Carolina	33	Miami	27
2006	10/07	Miami	27	North Carolina	7
2005	10/29	Miami	34	North Carolina	16
2004	10/30	North Carolina	31	Miami	28

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	12	8	6 Overs
Miami	8	3	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 8	7 - 4	4 - 4	3 - 0
Road Teams	8 - 12	4 - 7	0 - 3	4 - 4

(#) MIAMI at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIAMI	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#32	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#91	#64
OffenseOff	#65	#30
DefenseDef	#102	#106
Spec TeamsST	#120	#36
TalentTal	#13	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Miami Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Miami on Offense


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#65	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#25	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Miami Run Game


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#97	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Miami Pass Game


CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#36	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#7	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	MIAMI Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#102
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#51
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#2	#87
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#134

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#84
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#108
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'21 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
North Carolina -7.5 (63.5)
North Carolina won vs Miami this year (45-42)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Miami in 2023 (41-31)

MIAMI's OC Rhett Lashlee (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Manny Diaz (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD