North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC (ACC)
Tar Heels (2 - 1) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (20 - 3 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 19 (20 - 3 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 6.5 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 1)
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: NC State -9.5 (SP+ NCST -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 18 - NCST: 27 (45)
NCST Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UNC Travel: 20 miles
UNC is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: NC State -9.5 (SP+ NCST -5)
Projected Score: UNC: 18 - NCST: 27 (45)
NCST Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
UNC Travel: 20 miles
Wolfpack (3 - 0) (2 - 1 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 31 - 24 (30 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.8 - 4.2 (#45)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
| North Carolina's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Mon 9/1 | North Carolina vs TCU | +3.0 | 59.5 | L 14 - 48 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | North Carolina at Charlotte | -16.5 | 49.5 | W 20 - 3 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/13 | North Carolina vs Richmond | -24.5 | 47.5 | W 41 - 6 | U | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | North Carolina at UCF | +6.5 | 48.5 | ||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/4 | North Carolina vs Clemson | +11.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Fri 10/17 | North Carolina at California | +9 | |||||
| Sat 10/25 | North Carolina vs Virginia | +4.5 | |||||
| Fri 10/31 | North Carolina at Syracuse | +7 | |||||
| Sat 11/8 | North Carolina vs Stanford | -6 | |||||
| Sat 11/15 | North Carolina at Wake Forest | +3 | |||||
| Sat 11/22 | North Carolina vs Duke | +1 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | North Carolina at NC State | +9.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| NC State's 2025 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -12.5 | 58.5 | W 24 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/6 | NC State vs Virginia | -3.0 | 53.0 | W 35 - 31 | O | Y | |
| Thu 9/11 | NC State at Wake Forest | -7.5 | 52.5 | W 34 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/20 | NC State at Duke | +3.0 | 58.5 | ||||
| Sat 9/27 | NC State vs Virginia Tech | -16 | |||||
| Sat 10/4 | NC State vs Campbell | -32 | |||||
| Sat 10/11 | NC State at Notre Dame | +12.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/25 | NC State at Pittsburgh | +4.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/1 | NC State vs Georgia Tech | +1.5 | |||||
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/15 | NC State at Miami | +19.5 | |||||
| Fri 11/21 | NC State vs Florida State | +8.5 | |||||
| Sat 11/29 | NC State vs North Carolina | -9.5 | |||||
Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 5, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2025)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | #98 (.11) | 38% (105) | 25 | 36% (116) | 2.73 (94) | 130 | 41% (86) | 149 | 4.15 (62) | #43 (.05) | 38% (63) | 19 | 32% (20) | 44% (98) | 1.73 (10) | 43.3 | 1.3 | 2 |
| NCST | #56 (.23) | 44% (67) | 31 | 40% (95) | 2.53 (108) | 177 | 48% (39) | 240 | 4.39 (48) | #96 (.19) | 35% (35) | 24 | 30% (13) | 39% (63) | 3.19 (58) | 57.3 | 0.3 | 1 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | #65 (.2) | 42% (80) | 47% (34) | 3.32 (22) | 175 | 37% (114) | 216 | 4.08 (52) | #70 (.17) | 41% (53) | 44% (82) | 37% (26) | 4.01 (90) | 59.8 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ||
| NCST | #26 (.25) | 45% (36) | 44% (68) | 3.24 (36) | 130 | 47% (20) | 215 | 3.97 (61) | #86 (.19) | 41% (59) | 39% (31) | 43% (87) | 3.78 (67) | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Overall Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 3 | 25 | 20 | 38.2% | 4.15 | 1.3 | 14 | 279 | 130 | 149 | 4.3 | 57% | 43% | 36% | 41% | 17% | .11 |
| NCST Defense | 3 | 24 | 24 | 35% | 3.19 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 39% | 60% | 30% | 39% | 14% | .19 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 3 | 19 | 3 | 38.2% | 1.73 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 47% | 53% | 32% | 44% | 14% | .05 |
| NCST Offense | 3 | 31 | 29.5 | 43.8% | 4.39 | 0.3 | 22 | 416 | 177 | 240 | 4.7 | 55% | 45% | 40% | 48% | 18% | .23 |
Additional Stats 2025
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 3 | 26:30 | 13.7 | 33% | 67% | 4 | 43.3 | 1.3 | 2 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | 34.1 |
| NC State | 3 | 32:35 | 22.3 | 38% | 100% | 6 | 57.3 | 0.3 | 1 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 1 | 28.9 |
Run Game Stats (2025)
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 3 | 57% (29) | 36% (116) | 30.7 | 130.3 | 4.3 | 4 (79) | .1 (84) | 2.73 (94) | 67% (86) | 13% (127) | 1.13 (38) |
| NCST Defense | 3 | 39% (8) | 30% (13) | - | - | - | - | .15 (103) | 2.2 (21) | 64% (51) | 8% (94) | 1.57 (133) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 3 | 47% (52) | 32% (20) | - | - | - | - | -.13 (17) | 1.54 (4) | 86% (112) | 7% (106) | 0.82 (41) |
| NCST Offense | 3 | 55% (44) | 40% (95) | 37.7 | 176.7 | 4.7 | 6 (49) | .08 (89) | 2.53 (108) | 60% (103) | 12% (117) | 1.08 (45) |
Pass Game Stats (2025)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Offense | 3 | 43% (104) | 41% (86) | 13.3 | 21.7 | 148.7 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 4 (72) | 2 (60) | .13 (106) | 1.6 (46) | 28% (49) | 30% (84) | .38 (58) | 4% (39) | 2.2 (42) |
| NCST Defense | 3 | 60% (131) | 39% (63) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 3 (28) | .25 (78) | 1.6 (79) | 37% (26) | 32% (92) | .43 (103) | 5% (80) | 2.1 (84) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNC Defense | 3 | 53% (88) | 44% (98) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (12) | .21 (67) | 1.4 (44) | 33% (73) | 30% (75) | .27 (67) | 6% (56) | 2 (74) |
| NCST Offense | 3 | 45% (91) | 48% (39) | 21 | 29.7 | 239.7 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 5 (54) | 1 (23) | .42 (39) | 1.5 (67) | 33% (93) | 32% (66) | .24 (92) | 5% (76) | 1.8 (92) |
North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 3.75 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
North Carolina's Power Rating: 3.75 #70
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 3.75 NC State: 11.2
SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 0.1 NC State: 5.1
North Carolina: 3.75 NC State: 11.2
SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 0.1 NC State: 5.1
NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 11.2 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
NC State's Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
NC State's Power Rating: 11.2 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
NC State's Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 3
North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Offense: 25 PPG
Offense on Road: 20
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense on Road: 3
North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 2 - 1
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 27
North Carolina 18
Total Points: 45
NC State 27
North Carolina 18
Total Points: 45
NC State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 24
NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.5
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 24
NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 1 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/30 | North Carolina | 30 | NC State | 35 | NC State | North Carolina -2.5 | NC State | 54.5 | Over |
| 2023 | 11/25 | NC State | 39 | North Carolina | 20 | NC State | North Carolina -2 | NC State | 55.0 | Over |
| 2022 | 11/25 | North Carolina | 27 | NC State | 30 | NC State | North Carolina -6.5 | NC State | 56.0 | Over |
| 2021 | 11/26 | NC State | 34 | North Carolina | 30 | NC State | NC State -6.5 | North Carolina | 62.0 | Over |
| 2020 | 10/24 | North Carolina | 48 | NC State | 21 | North Carolina | North Carolina -15.0 | North Carolina | 62.0 | Over |
| 2019 | 11/30 | NC State | 10 | North Carolina | 41 | North Carolina | North Carolina -11 | North Carolina | 57.0 | Under |
| 2018 | 11/24 | North Carolina | 28 | NC State | 34 | NC State | NC State -7.5 | North Carolina | 61.5 | Over |
| 2017 | 11/25 | NC State | 33 | North Carolina | 21 | NC State | NC State -14.5 | North Carolina | 57.0 | Under |
| 2016 | 11/25 | North Carolina | 21 | NC State | 28 | NC State | North Carolina -10 | NC State | 63.0 | Under |
| 2015 | 11/28 | NC State | 34 | North Carolina | 45 | North Carolina | North Carolina -6 | North Carolina | 65.0 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/29 | North Carolina | 7 | NC State | 35 | NC State | North Carolina -6 | NC State | 0 | |
| 2013 | 11/02 | NC State | 19 | North Carolina | 27 | North Carolina | North Carolina -3 | North Carolina | 0 | |
| 2012 | 10/27 | North Carolina | 43 | NC State | 35 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2011 | 11/05 | NC State | 13 | North Carolina | 0 | NC State | ||||
| 2010 | 11/20 | North Carolina | 25 | NC State | 29 | NC State | ||||
| 2009 | 11/28 | NC State | 28 | North Carolina | 27 | NC State | ||||
| 2008 | 11/22 | North Carolina | 10 | NC State | 41 | NC State | ||||
| 2007 | 11/10 | NC State | 31 | North Carolina | 27 | NC State | ||||
| 2006 | 11/18 | North Carolina | 23 | NC State | 9 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2005 | 09/24 | NC State | 24 | North Carolina | 31 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2004 | 10/09 | North Carolina | 30 | NC State | 24 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2003 | 09/27 | NC State | 47 | North Carolina | 34 | NC State | ||||
| 2002 | 10/12 | North Carolina | 17 | NC State | 34 | NC State | ||||
| 2001 | 09/29 | NC State | 9 | North Carolina | 17 | North Carolina | ||||
| 2000 | 10/13 | North Carolina | 20 | NC State | 38 | NC State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 16 | 5 | 7 Overs |
| North Carolina | 9 | 7 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 11 - 14 | 3 - 9 | 1 - 6 | 2 - 3 |
| Road Teams | 14 - 11 | 9 - 3 | 3 - 2 | 6 - 1 |
(#70) North Carolina Info
Power Rating: 3.75 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 8 straight
North Carolina has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Power Rating: 3.75 #70
Offense Rating: 9.15 #84
Defense Rating: 5.40 #58
Overall SP+ Rating: 0.1 #72
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #69
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.6 #73
Talent Rating: 938.00 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 17% #29
Expected Record: 5.5 - 6.5
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 38%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.15 PPO
Awful Run Success 36%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Avg OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 1.73 PPO
Great Run Def Success 32%
Poor Pass Def Success 44%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
North Carolina has lost 8 straight
North Carolina has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )
North Carolina Notes
(8/27) QB1 - Gio Lopez has won starting job in fall
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 52% from portals
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
North Carolina Highlights
North Carolina defense is really good in red zone (#10)
North Carolina has a good run defense (#20)
North Carolina Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#15)
North Carolina Defensive Line is very good (#4)
North Carolina commits very few Penalties (#25)
North Carolina defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#12)
North Carolina Deficiencies
North Carolina offense is really bad (#105)
North Carolina run game is really bad (#116)
North Carolina offense is bad on 3rd Downs
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | NCST | UNC |
| OverallOver | #18 | #42 |
| OffenseOff | #28 | #71 |
| DefenseDef | #28 | #30 |
| Special TeamsST | #57 | #72 |
| PassingPass | #11 | #62 |
| RushingRush | #27 | #100 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #73 | #46 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #64 | #10 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #23 | #71 |
| TacklingTkl | #48 | #27 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #36 | #37 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #28 | #35 |
| Coverage DefCov | #25 | #39 |
(#46) NC State Info
Power Rating: 11.2 #46
Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Great Run Def Success 30%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
NC State has lost 8 straight
NC State has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
NC State Notes
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
NC State Highlights
NC State in Undefeated
NC State is Undefeated at Home
NC State has a good run defense (#13)
NC State Defensive Line is very good (#21)
NC State has a great TO Margin (#11)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#133)
NC State does not Sack the QB (#122)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
Power Rating: 11.2 #46
Offense Rating: 17.47 #42
Defense Rating: 5.17 #56
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.1 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #40
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.2 #65
Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
Expected Record: 7.8 - 4.2
Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 48%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 35%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Great Run Def Success 30%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position
NC State has lost 8 straight
NC State has lost 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 0 (1 - 1 - 0 vs Spread)
NC State Notes
(9/11) CJ Bailey is a weapon, holds ball long at times
(9/11) Tackling is an issue, Def very inconsistent
(8/29) Run Def great vs ECU, run off a big concern
(7/28) Off only 5 portals, 3 OL & 2 TE, good sign?
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
NC State Highlights
NC State in Undefeated
NC State is Undefeated at Home
NC State has a good run defense (#13)
NC State Defensive Line is very good (#21)
NC State has a great TO Margin (#11)
NC State defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#133)
NC State does not Sack the QB (#122)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanni Lopez | 31 | 53 | 59% | 343 | 3 | 1 | 6.5 |
| Max Johnson | 9 | 11 | 82% | 103 | 1 | 0 | 9.4 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demon June | 23 | 200 | 1 | 8.7 | 50 |
| Giovanni Lopez | 27 | 74 | 1 | 2.7 | 12 |
| Caleb Hood | 15 | 46 | 1 | 3.1 | 9 |
| Davion Gause | 15 | 43 | 1 | 2.9 | 12 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipp | 10 | 149 | 2 | 14.9 | 39 |
| Chris Culliver | 4 | 89 | 1 | 22.3 | 51 |
| Javarius Green | 6 | 88 | 0 | 14.7 | 39 |
| Jake Johnson | 4 | 32 | 1 | 8.0 | 11 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Simpson (Tr) | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Khmori House (Tr) | 18 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mikai Gbayor (Tr) | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaleb Cost | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Tr) | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrew Simpson (Tr) | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mikai Gbayor (Tr) | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Mupoyi (Tr) | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thaddeus Dixon (Tr) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Marcus Allen | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaiden Patterson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Bailey | 63 | 89 | 71% | 719 | 5 | 1 | 8.1 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylan Smothers | 63 | 380 | 3 | 6.0 | 57 |
| CJ Bailey | 21 | 84 | 3 | 4.0 | 30 |
| Jayden Scott | 19 | 66 | 0 | 3.5 | 13 |
| Will Wilson | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2.3 | 4 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Grimes | 9 | 173 | 1 | 19.2 | 48 |
| Noah Rogers | 8 | 109 | 1 | 13.6 | 27 |
| Terrell Anderson | 9 | 107 | 0 | 11.9 | 30 |
| Teddy Hoffmann | 6 | 99 | 0 | 16.5 | 50 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brown | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Caden Fordham | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Brody Barnhardt | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cian Slone (Tr) | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden Fordham | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Travali Price | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Brown | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Coleson Fields | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Marshall | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sean Brown | 31 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Sabastian Harsh (Tr) | 14 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 |