North Carolina at NC State Game Matchup

North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, November 29th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC (ACC)

Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#67)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 5)

NCST 2nd straight Home Game
UNC is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: NC State -6.5 (SP+ NCST -3)
Projected Score: UNC: 25 - NCST: 31 (59)
NCST Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
UNC Travel: 20 miles

Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (87 - 64)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#53)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 4)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/1	North Carolina vs TCU	-1.5	57.5
Sat 9/6	North Carolina at Charlotte	-19.5
Sat 9/13	North Carolina vs Richmond	-25.5
Sat 9/20	North Carolina at UCF	-0.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/4	North Carolina vs Clemson	+21
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17	North Carolina at California	-1.5
Sat 10/25	North Carolina vs Virginia	-4.5
Fri 10/31	North Carolina at Syracuse	+6
Sat 11/8	North Carolina vs Stanford	-10
Sat 11/15	North Carolina at Wake Forest	-6.5
Sat 11/22	North Carolina vs Duke	+1.5
Sat 11/29	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

NC State's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Wed 8/27	NC State vs East Carolina	-12.5	0.0
Sat 9/6	NC State vs Virginia	-8.5
Thu 9/11	NC State at Wake Forest	-10.5
Sat 9/20	NC State at Duke	+2.5
Sat 9/27	NC State vs Virginia Tech	-3
Sat 10/4	NC State vs Campbell	-29.5
Sat 10/11	NC State at Notre Dame	+22.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25	NC State at Pittsburgh	+1
Sat 11/1	NC State vs Georgia Tech	-1
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15	NC State at Miami	+16.5
Fri 11/21	NC State vs Florida State	-1
Sat 11/29	NC State vs North Carolina	-6.5

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)	30.9	47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)	28.1	44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)	28.5	44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)	30.2	39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	13	30.9	27.2	42%	4.08	1.2	20	391	175	216	4.9	52%	47%	47%	37%	15%	.2
NCST Defense	13	30.2	24.7	40.9%	3.78	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	39%	43%	20%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	13	28.1	20.8	40.5%	4.01	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	44%	37%	15%	.17
NCST Offense	13	28.5	31	45.1%	3.97	1.7	19	345	130	215	4.4	47%	52%	44%	47%	19%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	13	27:42	20.2	40%	50%	6.8	59.8	1.2	1.2	5.2	2.8	6	29.1
NC State	13	29:10	18.6	37%	56%	4.8	45	1.7	1.4	6.2	1.8	2	28.9

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	13	52% (53)	47% (34)	35.9	175.2	4.9	26 (36)	.26 (14)	3.32 (22)	70% (89)	9% (54)	1.06 (36)
NCST Defense	13	47% (33)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	.2 (111)	3.07 (83)	76% (86)	12% (24)	1.28 (134)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	13	53% (92)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.16 (88)	3.39 (121)	86% (130)	9% (83)	0.89 (29)
NCST Offense	13	47% (89)	44% (68)	29.6	130.3	4.4	21 (59)	.15 (56)	3.24 (36)	69% (92)	13% (127)	0.98 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	13	47% (82)	37% (114)	16.8	29	215.9	7.5	12.8	17 (79)	8 (40)	.17 (101)	1.7 (29)	32% (74)	29% (94)	.32 (78)	6% (60)	2.1 (33)
NCST Defense	13	53% (106)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.19 (47)	1.5 (22)	33% (49)	30% (65)	.33 (83)	8% (16)	2.3 (120)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	13	46% (38)	37% (26)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.22 (64)	1.8 (125)	32% (66)	26% (12)	.23 (35)	5% (103)	2.2 (99)
NCST Offense	13	52% (48)	47% (20)	18.2	28.1	214.8	7.7	11.8	18 (68)	12 (85)	.36 (24)	1.6 (45)	30% (35)	36% (24)	.57 (5)	6% (83)	2.2 (19)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.77 #62
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
2025 Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
North Carolina's 2025 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
North Carolina's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 1.77 NC State: 8.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 2.0 NC State: 4.8

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 8.405 #46
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
NC State's Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
2025 Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
NC State's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
NC State's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.31

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 31
North Carolina 25

Projected Total Points: 59

NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

NC State's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/30	North Carolina	30	NC State	35	NC State	North Carolina -2.5	NC State	54.5	Over
2023	11/25	NC State	39	North Carolina	20	NC State	North Carolina -2	NC State	55.0	Over
2022	11/25	North Carolina	27	NC State	30	NC State	North Carolina -6.5	NC State	56.0	Over
2021	11/26	NC State	34	North Carolina	30	NC State	NC State -6.5	North Carolina	62.0	Over
2020	10/24	North Carolina	48	NC State	21	North Carolina	North Carolina -15.0	North Carolina	62.0	Over
2019	11/30	NC State	10	North Carolina	41	North Carolina	North Carolina -11	North Carolina	57.0	Under
2018	11/24	North Carolina	28	NC State	34	NC State	NC State -7.5	North Carolina	61.5	Over
2017	11/25	NC State	33	North Carolina	21	NC State	NC State -14.5	North Carolina	57.0	Under
2016	11/25	North Carolina	21	NC State	28	NC State	North Carolina -10	NC State	63.0	Under
2015	11/28	NC State	34	North Carolina	45	North Carolina	North Carolina -6	North Carolina	65.0	Over
2014	11/29	North Carolina	7	NC State	35	NC State	North Carolina -6	NC State	0
2013	11/02	NC State	19	North Carolina	27	North Carolina	North Carolina -3	North Carolina	0
2012	10/27	North Carolina	43	NC State	35	North Carolina
2011	11/05	NC State	13	North Carolina	0	NC State
2010	11/20	North Carolina	25	NC State	29	NC State
2009	11/28	NC State	28	North Carolina	27	NC State
2008	11/22	North Carolina	10	NC State	41	NC State
2007	11/10	NC State	31	North Carolina	27	NC State
2006	11/18	North Carolina	23	NC State	9	North Carolina
2005	09/24	NC State	24	North Carolina	31	North Carolina
2004	10/09	North Carolina	30	NC State	24	North Carolina
2003	09/27	NC State	47	North Carolina	34	NC State
2002	10/12	North Carolina	17	NC State	34	NC State
2001	09/29	NC State	9	North Carolina	17	North Carolina
2000	10/13	North Carolina	20	NC State	38	NC State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	16	5	7 Overs
North Carolina	9	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 14	3 - 9	1 - 6	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 11	9 - 3	3 - 2	6 - 1

(#62) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.77 #62
Offense Rating: 15.19 #61
Defense Rating: 13.42 #62
Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #54
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #39
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #74
Talent Rating: 834.00 #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 16% #30
Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.08 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.01 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Carolina Notes
(4/17) QB Lopez (S Al) added post spring.
(4/17) NFL style not open to fans/media. We'll see
(4/17) Is Lopez QB1? Have Johnson (Inj)/Browne (PU)
(3/21) RB rebuild. Some options, SO Gause has exp
(3/21) WR/TE rebuild. Have some talented options
(3/21) OL rebuild 1/5 back. 5 portal adds.
(3/21) Def - Run Def awful LY. Have some DE's
(3/21) Nearly 1/2 roster new TY. New staff
(3/21) Is Belichick serious here? Staff hires say no
(3/21) Sched is easiest in P4. Just OK wins 8-9

North Carolina Ratings Matchup NC State

Power #62

#46

Off #61

#41

Def #62

#48

Talent #35

#46

SP+ #54

#42

SP+ Off #39

#36

SP+ Def #74

#54

Previous Matchups
NC State beat North Carolina last year (35-30)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2023 (39-20)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2022 (30-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | NCST
Depth Chart: UNC | NCST
Rosters: UNC | NCST

(#46) NC State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 8.405 #46
Offense Rating: 18.52 #41
Defense Rating: 11.51 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 31.2 #36
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.4 #54
Talent Rating: 814.00 #46
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #37
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

NC State Notes
(5/29) Same 3-3-5 Def, added 4 DE's (G5) for rush
(5/29) DB exp is mostly portal adds, LBs OK but depth?
(5/29) Tons of close lines, lots of variance in '25
(5/29) New OC is Kurt Roper, on staff since '19. Meh
(5/29) QB Bailey a good find as Fr in a bad '24 season
(5/29) WRs meh LY, some depth. TE Joly a weapon.
(5/29) OL returns 2/5, 3 portals. OTs decent, IOL ?
(5/29) Def was bad LY, 13 portal adds, lots of ??
(3/19) RB Smoothers back, depth/playmakers?
(3/19) DC Eliot journeyman with ? success

North Carolina's OC Freddie Kitchens

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	205	311	66%	2557	18	5	8.2
Max Johnson	12	19	63%	71	0	1	3.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Giovanni Lopez	82	465	7	5.7	50
Davion Gause	67	326	4	4.9	21
Charleston French	10	84	1	8.4	45
Caleb Hood	18	81	0	4.5	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kobe Paysour	21	365	0	17.4	36
Aziah Johnson (Tr)	16	276	2	17.3	52
Chris Culliver	6	135	1	22.5	50
Jordan Shipp	9	114	1	12.7	22

View North Carolina's Full Roster

North Carolina's DC Stephen Belichick

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	0	4
Gavin Gibson (Tr)	52	7	0	1	3
Mikai Gbayor (Tr)	49	6	1	3	3
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	45	11	3	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Pryce Yates (Tr)	21	7	4	5	1
Andrew Simpson (Tr)	45	11	3	0	0
Isaiah Johnson (Tr)	8	3	2	1	0
C.J. Mims (Tr)	21	4	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Thaddeus Dixon (Tr)	43	2	0	0	10
Kaleb Cost	61	3	1	0	4
Khmori House (Tr)	33	1	0	1	4

NC State's OC Kurt Roper

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Lex Thomas	5	8	63%	65	1	1	8.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31
Lex Thomas	1	9	0	9.0	9
Coleson Fields	3	8	0	2.7	3

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers	35	478	1	13.7	75
Wesley Grimes	24	319	1	13.3	30
Daylan Smothers	19	263	2	13.8	72

View NC State's Full Roster

NC State's DC D. J. Eliot

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)	69	1	0	1	6
Brian Nelson II (Tr)	53	2	0	1	3
Caden Fordham	50	4	1	6	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cian Slone (Tr)	49	10	8	5	0
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Sabastian Harsh (Tr)	41	9	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Devon Marshall	33	1	0	7
Jeremiah Johnson (Tr)	69	1	1	6
Brian Nelson II (Tr)	53	2	1	3