North Carolina at Virginia - 2022 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo   North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers  Virginia logo
Saturday, November 5th 2022 (12:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7 (61.5)
North Carolina 31 - Virginia: 28  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (21 - 17)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
UVA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -6  (SP+ UNC -17)
Projected Score: UNC: 19 - UVA: 29 (48)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 150 miles
Cavaliers (3 - 7) (4 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27 North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.055.0W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/3 North Carolina at App State+3.056.0W 63 - 61OY
Sat 9/10 North Carolina at Georgia State-7.064.0W 35 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.555.0L 32 - 45ON
Sat 10/1 North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.557.0W 41 - 10UY
Sat 10/8 North Carolina at Miami+4.067.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/15 North Carolina at Duke-7.070.0W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.565.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 11/5 North Carolina at Virginia-7.061.5W 31 - 28UN
Sat 11/12 North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.579.0W 36 - 34UY
Sat 11/19 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.563.5L 17 - 21UN
Fri 11/25 North Carolina vs NC State-6.556.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 12/3 North Carolina vs Clemson+7.564.0L 10 - 39UN
Wed 12/28 North Carolina vs Oregon+13.076.0L 27 - 28UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Virginia's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Virginia vs Richmond-22.562.0W 34 - 17UN
Sat 9/10 Virginia at Illinois+4.055.0L 3 - 24UN
Sat 9/17 Virginia vs Old Dominion-8.052.5W 16 - 14UN
Fri 9/23 Virginia at Syracuse+9.553.5L 20 - 22UY
Sat 10/1 Virginia at Duke+2.055.0L 17 - 38UN
Sat 10/8 Virginia vs Louisville-1.547.5L 17 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/20 Virginia at Georgia Tech+3.548.0W 16 - 9UY
Sat 10/29 Virginia vs Miami+3.048.5L 12 - 14UY
Sat 11/5 Virginia vs North Carolina+7.061.5L 28 - 31UY
Sat 11/12 Virginia vs Pittsburgh+5.541.5L 7 - 37ON
Sat 11/19 Virginia vs Coastal Carolina-2.044.5
Sat 11/26 Virginia at Virginia Tech+1.540.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.2846%19.351%3.4321341%2564.53.2646%24.549%43%4.2469.21.11.2
UVA.3250%30.851%3.4912450%3924.33.3447%19.649%46%3.856.81.51.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1319.317.546.3%4.531.1244682132565.452%48%51%41%17%.28
UVA Defense1219.617.747%3.81.2 - - - - - 53%46%49%46%14%.34
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1324.52345.9%4.241.2 - - - - - 53%46%49%43%15%.26
UVA Offense1230.836.450.3%4.331.5275161243924.432%67%51%50%18%.32

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1329:4123.843%58%7.369.21.11.25.52.2028.7
Virginia1230:4226.546%40%6.456.81.51.24.51.6025.7
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1352%51%39.5212.75.430.373.4371%12%1.21
UVA Defense1253%49% - - - - .33.5778%8%1.03
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1353%49% - - - - .193.2982%9%0.95
UVA Offense1232%51%28.3123.64.421.263.4983%10%0.98

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1348%41%18.229.4255.78.714269.221.630%38%.545%2.2
UVA Defense1246%46% - - - - - - 8.441.629%35%.576%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1346%43% - - - - - - 11.361.730%29%.356%2.1
UVA Offense1267%50%29.346.2392.28.513.43112.381.530%41%.598%2

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
North Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8  #46
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7  #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #104

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina:    Virginia: -2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 7.8   Virginia: -9.0




Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -2 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #59
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2022 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.0  #96
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.2  #117
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #47

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Virginia 29
North Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 48
Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2022 Record
Record: 3 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 2 - 8
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25North Carolina16Virginia17Virginia -12.5North Carolina51.5Under
202410/26Virginia14North Carolina41Virginia -3.5North Carolina58.5Under
202310/21North Carolina27Virginia31North Carolina -24Virginia58.0Push
202211/05Virginia28North Carolina31North Carolina -7Virginia61.5Under
202109/18North Carolina59Virginia39North Carolina -7.5North Carolina67.0Over
202010/31Virginia44North Carolina41North Carolina -7.0Virginia0
201911/02North Carolina31Virginia38Virginia -1Virginia48.0Over
201810/27Virginia31North Carolina21Virginia -7.5Virginia51.0Over
201710/14North Carolina14Virginia20Virginia -3Virginia54.5Under
201610/22Virginia14North Carolina35North Carolina -9North Carolina68.5Under
201510/24North Carolina26Virginia13North Carolina -12North Carolina58.0Under
201410/25Virginia27North Carolina28Virginia -7.5North Carolina0
201311/09North Carolina45Virginia14North Carolina -14North Carolina0
201211/15Virginia13North Carolina37
201109/17North Carolina28Virginia17
201010/16Virginia10North Carolina44
200910/03North Carolina3Virginia16
200810/18Virginia16North Carolina13
200709/15North Carolina20Virginia22
200610/19Virginia23North Carolina0
200510/22North Carolina7Virginia5
200409/11Virginia56North Carolina24
200310/04North Carolina13Virginia38
200210/19Virginia37North Carolina27
200110/13North Carolina30Virginia24
200010/27Virginia17North Carolina6
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Virginia1463 Overs
North Carolina1276 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 137 - 64 - 33 - 3
Road Teams13 - 136 - 73 - 33 - 4

(#) UNC at (#) UVA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCUVA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #46 #96
Perf GradeGrade #65 #124
OffenseOff #43 #127
DefenseDef #102 #70
Spec TeamsST #25 #120
TalentTal #16 #59
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #70
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #11 #47
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
Run GameRun #62 #98
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #117 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #19
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffUVA Def
Pass GamePass #2 #18
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #78 #109
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Virginia on Offense
CategoryCatUVA OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #102
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #117 #104
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Virginia Run Game
CategoryCat
UVA OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #124 #98
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #20
Virginia Pass Game
CategoryCatUVA OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #110 #102
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #132 #62
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'22 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 10
North Carolina 7.0 (61.5)
North Carolina won at Virginia this year (31-28)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat North Carolina last year (17-16)
North Carolina beat Virginia in 2024 (41-14)
Virginia beat North Carolina in 2023 (31-27)

  
UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD