North Carolina at Pittsburgh - 2023 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo   North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers  Pittsburgh logo
Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7 (49.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
North Carolina 41 - Pittsburgh: 24  (ACC)

 
Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PITT is playing their 4th straight game
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -11.5  (SP+ UNC -17)
Projected Score: UNC: 31 - PITT: 19 (50)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 318 miles
Panthers (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (63 - 43)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (37 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 North Carolina vs South Carolina+2.563.5W 31 - 17UY
Sat 9/9 North Carolina vs App State-18.058.0W 40 - 34ON
Sat 9/16 North Carolina vs Minnesota-7.051.0W 31 - 13UY
Sat 9/23 North Carolina at Pittsburgh-7.049.5W 41 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9.559.0W 40 - 7UY
Sat 10/14 North Carolina vs Miami-2.557.5W 41 - 31OY
Sat 10/21 North Carolina vs Virginia-24.058.0L 27 - 31UN
Sat 10/28 North Carolina at Georgia Tech-12.065.5L 42 - 46ON
Sat 11/4 North Carolina vs Campbell-45.568.5W 59 - 7UY
Sat 11/11 North Carolina vs Duke-9.552.5W 47 - 45ON
Sat 11/18 North Carolina at Clemson+7.558.0L 20 - 31UN
Sat 11/25 North Carolina at NC State-2.055.0L 20 - 39ON
Wed 12/27 North Carolina vs West Virginia+4.562.0L 10 - 30UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Pittsburgh's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Pittsburgh vs Wofford-37.549.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati-6.544.5L 21 - 27ON
Sat 9/16 Pittsburgh at West Virginia+2.548.0L 6 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Pittsburgh vs North Carolina+7.049.5L 24 - 41ON
Sat 9/30 Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-3.040.0L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+7.544.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest-3.045.0L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/28 Pittsburgh at Notre Dame+21.045.5L 7 - 58ON
Sat 11/4 Pittsburgh vs Florida State+21.550.0L 7 - 24UY
Sat 11/11 Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-4.537.5L 13 - 28ON
Thu 11/16 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-1.047.0W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/25 Pittsburgh at Duke+4.540.5L 19 - 30ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC.346%19.345%3.1815347%3094.47.2948%24.549%48%4.5155.311.1
PITT.1843%33.746%3.2118341%2223.84.0636%24.836%37%3.6263.71.52.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PITT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1419.317.546.2%4.471254631533094.245%55%45%47%14%.3
PITT Defense1324.825.136.3%3.622.2 - - - - - 42%57%36%37%22%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1424.52348.3%4.511.1 - - - - - 51%49%49%48%12%.29
PITT Offense1333.736.643.4%3.841.5214051832224.655%44%46%41%16%.18

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1429:5524.646%71%6.155.311.13.41.2129.7
Pittsburgh1333:1421.539%50%7.463.71.52.26.43.6530.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1445%45%36.4153.44.224.183.1872%10%1
PITT Defense1342%36% - - - - .082.6176%12%1.16
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1451%49% - - - - .183.2579%6%0.87
PITT Offense1355%46%40.2183.14.630.183.2178%10%1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1455%47%24.637.5309.38.312.6387.411.632%40%.54%1.9
PITT Defense1357%37% - - - - - - 14.081.639%29%.2910%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1449%48% - - - - - - 9.411.628%31%.46%2.2
PITT Offense1344%41%17.230.2222.27.4131311.261.631%32%.316%1.9

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 9.47  #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89  #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64  #81
2023 Talent Rating: 805.63  #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44%  #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2  #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8  #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 9.47   Pittsburgh: -1.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 10.2   Pittsburgh: -6.9




Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: -1.67  #72
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 11.42  #115
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 6.46  #35
2023 Talent Rating: 700.42  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 11  #43
Pittsburgh's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Pittsburgh's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9  #86
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #106
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
North Carolina 31
Pittsburgh 19

Projected Total Points: 50
Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.6
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.1

Pittsburgh's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05North Carolina24Pittsburgh34Pittsburgh -2.5Pittsburgh63.0Under
202309/23Pittsburgh24North Carolina41North Carolina -7North Carolina49.5Over
202210/29North Carolina42Pittsburgh24North Carolina -2.5North Carolina65.5Over
202111/11Pittsburgh30North Carolina23Pittsburgh -6.5Pittsburgh72.0Under
201911/14Pittsburgh34North Carolina27Pittsburgh -4Pittsburgh49.0Over
201809/22North Carolina38Pittsburgh35Pittsburgh -3North Carolina48.0Over
201711/09Pittsburgh31North Carolina34Pittsburgh -10North Carolina50.5Over
201609/24North Carolina37Pittsburgh36North Carolina -7Pittsburgh67.0Over
201510/29Pittsburgh19North Carolina26North Carolina -2.5North Carolina59.0Under
201411/15North Carolina40Pittsburgh35North Carolina -1.5North Carolina0
201311/16Pittsburgh27North Carolina34North Carolina -1North Carolina53.0Over
200912/26North Carolina17Pittsburgh19
200011/03Pittsburgh17North Carolina20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Pittsburgh447 Overs
North Carolina973 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams6 - 75 - 64 - 21 - 4
Road Teams7 - 66 - 54 - 12 - 4

(#25) UNC at (#72) PITT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCPITT
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #25 #72
SP+SP+ #27 #86
Perf GradeGrade #35 #117
OffenseOff #34 #127
DefenseDef #47 #85
Spec TeamsST #119 #73
TalentTal #17 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #18 #43
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCat
UNC OffPITT Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #34 #85
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #20 #35
SP+SP+ #13 #58
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #26 #57
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #102 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #85
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #8 #83
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #42 #121
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Pittsburgh on Offense
CategoryCatPITT OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #127 #47
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #115 #81
SP+SP+ #106 #71
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Pittsburgh Run Game
CategoryCat
PITT OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #77 #57
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #54
Pittsburgh Pass Game
CategoryCatPITT OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #124 #37
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #93 #41
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
PITT 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 4
North Carolina 7.0 (49.5)
North Carolina won at Pittsburgh this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat North Carolina in 2024 (34-24)
North Carolina beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (41-24)

  
UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Drake Maye26942563%36082498.5
Conner Harrell223367%270228.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omarion Hampton2531504155.968
Drake Maye11244994.056
British Brooks7437525.153
Conner Harrell227513.461
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
J.J. Jones46711315.557
Devontez Walker (Tr)41699717.056
Bryson Nesbit41585514.362
Nate Mccollum (Tr)44469110.748

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cedric Gray12111574
Power Echols1026041
Don Chapman645121
Antavious Lane (Tr)623001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaimon Rucker61159121
Cedric Gray12111574
Beau Atkinson195430
Desmond Evans335375
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Allen491008
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)421016
Desmond Evans335375

PITT's OC Frank Cignetti Jr. (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)9418451%1179786.4
Phil Jurkovec (Tr)5711251%818637.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Hammond Jr.11854744.666
C'Bo Flemister9836723.738
Daniel Carter2813424.822
Kenny Johnson107207.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerrod Means41721617.675
Konata Mumpfield44576513.182
Gavin Bartholomew18326118.160
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)28316011.331

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donovan McMillon (Tr)1051001
Javon Mcintyre854007
Solomon Deshields588241
Bangally Kamara537251
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samuel Okunlola186500
Shayne Simon488552
Dayon Hayes4511464
Bam Brima314341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
M.J. Devonshire3210010
Javon Mcintyre854007
Dayon Hayes4511464