North Carolina at Pittsburgh - 2023 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh Panthers

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
North Carolina -7 (49.5) (0) Open: 0.0
North Carolina 41 - Pittsburgh: 24 (ACC)

Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 31 - 28 (27 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PITT is playing their 4th straight game
UNC is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: North Carolina -11.5 (SP+ UNC -17)
Projected Score: UNC: 32 - PITT: 21 (61)
UNC Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
UNC Travel: 318 miles

Panthers (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (63 - 43)
Avg Score : 33 - 28 (38 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
PITT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Carolina vs South Carolina	+2.5	63.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	North Carolina vs App State	-18.0	58.0	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Carolina vs Minnesota	-7.0	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	-7.0	49.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-9.5	59.0	W 40 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Carolina vs Miami	-2.5	57.5	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/21	North Carolina vs Virginia	-24.0	58.0	L 27 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/28	North Carolina at Georgia Tech	-12.0	65.5	L 42 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/4	North Carolina vs Campbell	-45.5	68.5	W 59 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	North Carolina vs Duke	-9.5	52.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	North Carolina at Clemson	+7.5	58.0	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	North Carolina at NC State	-2.0	55.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Wed 12/27	North Carolina vs West Virginia	+4.5	62.0	L 10 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

Pittsburgh's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Pittsburgh vs Wofford	-37.5	49.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati	-6.5	44.5	L 21 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/16	Pittsburgh at West Virginia	+2.5	48.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Pittsburgh vs North Carolina	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/30	Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	-3.0	40.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Pittsburgh vs Louisville	+7.5	44.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Pittsburgh at Wake Forest	-3.0	45.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Pittsburgh at Notre Dame	+21.0	45.5	L 7 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/4	Pittsburgh vs Florida State	+21.5	50.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-4.5	37.5	L 13 - 28	O	N
Thu 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Boston College	-1.0	47.0	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Pittsburgh at Duke	+4.5	40.5	L 19 - 30	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.3	46%	30.9	45%	3.18	153	47%	309	4.47	.29	48%	28.1	49%	48%	4.51	55.3	1	1.1
PITT	.18	43%	32.9	46%	3.21	183	41%	222	3.84	.06	36%	28.4	36%	37%	3.62	63.7	1.5	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
PITT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	14	30.9	27.2	46.2%	4.47	1	25	463	153	309	4.2	45%	55%	45%	47%	14%	.3
PITT Defense	13	28.4	21.6	36.3%	3.62	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	36%	37%	22%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	14	28.1	20.8	48.3%	4.51	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	48%	12%	.29
PITT Offense	13	32.9	37.6	43.4%	3.84	1.5	21	405	183	222	4.6	55%	44%	46%	41%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	14	29:55	24.6	46%	71%	6.1	55.3	1	1.1	3.4	1.2	1	29.7
Pittsburgh	13	33:14	21.5	39%	50%	7.4	63.7	1.5	2.2	6.4	3.6	5	30.7

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	14	45%	45%	36.4	153.4	4.2	24	.18	3.18	72%	10%	1
PITT Defense	13	42%	36%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.61	76%	12%	1.16

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	14	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.25	79%	6%	0.87
PITT Offense	13	55%	46%	40.2	183.1	4.6	30	.18	3.21	78%	10%	1.05

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	14	55%	47%	24.6	37.5	309.3	8.3	12.6	38	7	.41	1.6	32%	40%	.5	4%	1.9
PITT Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.08	1.6	39%	29%	.29	10%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	14	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.41	1.6	28%	31%	.4	6%	2.2
PITT Offense	13	44%	41%	17.2	30.2	222.2	7.4	13	13	11	.26	1.6	31%	32%	.31	6%	1.9

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 9.47 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44% #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 9.47 Pittsburgh: -1.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 10.2 Pittsburgh: -6.9

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: -1.67 #72
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 11.42 #115
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 6.46 #35
2023 Talent Rating: 672.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Pittsburgh's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Pittsburgh's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 32
Pittsburgh 21

Projected Total Points: 61

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 37.6
Defense: 28.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Pittsburgh's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	North Carolina	24	Pittsburgh	34	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh -2.5	Pittsburgh	63.0	Under
2023	09/23	Pittsburgh	24	North Carolina	41	North Carolina	North Carolina -7	North Carolina	49.5	Over
2022	10/29	North Carolina	42	Pittsburgh	24	North Carolina	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	65.5	Over
2021	11/11	Pittsburgh	30	North Carolina	23	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh -6.5	Pittsburgh	72.0	Under
2019	11/14	Pittsburgh	34	North Carolina	27	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh -4	Pittsburgh	49.0	Over
2018	09/22	North Carolina	38	Pittsburgh	35	North Carolina	Pittsburgh -3	North Carolina	48.0	Over
2017	11/09	Pittsburgh	31	North Carolina	34	North Carolina	Pittsburgh -10	North Carolina	50.5	Over
2016	09/24	North Carolina	37	Pittsburgh	36	North Carolina	North Carolina -7	Pittsburgh	67.0	Over
2015	10/29	Pittsburgh	19	North Carolina	26	North Carolina	North Carolina -2.5	North Carolina	59.0	Under
2014	11/15	North Carolina	40	Pittsburgh	35	North Carolina	North Carolina -1.5	North Carolina	0
2013	11/16	Pittsburgh	27	North Carolina	34	North Carolina	North Carolina -1	North Carolina	53.0	Over
2009	12/26	North Carolina	17	Pittsburgh	19	Pittsburgh
2000	11/03	Pittsburgh	17	North Carolina	20	North Carolina

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Pittsburgh	4	4	7 Overs
North Carolina	9	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 7	5 - 6	4 - 2	1 - 4
Road Teams	7 - 6	6 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 4

(#25) North Carolina Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 9.47 #25
Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71
Talent Rating: 948.00 #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 44% #18
Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80

Team Profile

,
,

North Carolina Ratings Matchup Pittsburgh

Power #25

#72

Off #20

#115

Def #81

#35

Talent #16

#57

SP+ #27

#86

SP+ Off #13

#106

SP+ Def #71

#58

Rematch from Week 4
North Carolina 7.0 (49.5)
North Carolina won at Pittsburgh this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Pittsburgh beat North Carolina last year (34-24)
North Carolina beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (41-24)
North Carolina beat Pittsburgh in 2022 (42-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Acrisure Stadium
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 59° - Wind: 10 mph

Team Information
Injuries: UNC | PITT
Depth Chart: UNC | PITT
Rosters: UNC | PITT

(#72) Pittsburgh Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -1.67 #72
Offense Rating: 11.42 #115
Defense Rating: 6.46 #35
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #58
Talent Rating: 672.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 11 #43
Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10

Team Profile

,
,

North Carolina's OC Chip Lindsey

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tad Hudson	17	26	65%	173	2	0	6.7
Jefferson Boaz	2	5	40%	24	0	0	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	281	1660	15	5.9	75
George Pettaway	163	976	5	6.0	31
Elijah Green	29	201	5	6.9	51
D.J. Jones	57	162	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	36	582	6	16.2	53
John Copenhaver	40	414	4	10.4	35
Omarion Hampton	38	373	2	9.8	49
Kamari Morales	28	325	6	11.6	54

View North Carolina's Full Roster

North Carolina's DC Gene Chizik

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Antavious Lane (Tr)	74	4	1	0	2
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Jahvaree Ritzie	38	5	5	5	1
Kevin Hester Jr.	37	4	4	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaimon Rucker	30	8	6	3	1
Desmond Evans	34	10	5	9	1
Jahvaree Ritzie	38	5	5	5	1
Kevin Hester Jr.	37	4	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)	36	4	2	1	8
Power Echols	73	2	1	2	6
Tayon Holloway	16	2	1	0	5

Pittsburgh's OC Frank Cignetti Jr.

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	166	291	57%	2047	13	11	7.0
Gavin Bartholomew	0	1	0%	0	0	0	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daniel Carter	22	208	4	9.5	43
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	28	74	1	2.6	23
Gavin Bartholomew	1	2	0	2.0	2

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Konata Mumpfield	52	813	5	15.6	46
Gavin Bartholomew	38	329	4	8.7	21
Israel Polk	24	201	0	8.4	19
Cole Mitchell	11	124	2	11.3	40

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

Pittsburgh's DC Randy Bates

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon (Tr)	115	1	0	0	7
Brandon George	80	6	2	7	0
Rashad Battle	35	1	0	1	8
P.J. O'Brien	33	1	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Samuel Okunlola	30	7	3	1
Dayon Hayes	16	4	2	0
Brandon George	80	6	2	7
Solomon Deshields	23	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Rashad Battle	35	1	1	8
Donovan McMillon (Tr)	115	1	0	7
Daniel Carter	0	0	1	1