NC State at North Carolina - 2026 Matchup Preview
NC State logo NC State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar HeelsNorth Carolina logo
Saturday, November 28th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Kenan Memorial Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC

 
Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (95 - 70)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (23 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NCST 2nd straight Road Game
UNC is playing their 9th straight game
NCST is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: NC State -5.5  (SP+ NCST -11.5)
Projected Score: NCST: 29 - UNC: 24 (53)
NCST Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
NCST Travel: 20 miles
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
NC State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 NC State at Virginia+3.5
Sat 9/12 NC State vs Richmond-30.5
Sat 9/19 NC State at Vanderbilt+12
Sat 9/26 NC State vs App State-20.5
Sat 10/3 NC State vs Louisville+1
Sat 10/10 NC State vs Wake Forest-3.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/23 NC State at Stanford-9.5
Fri 10/30 NC State vs California-9
Fri 11/6 NC State vs Duke-5.5
Sat 11/14 NC State vs Syracuse-17
Sat 11/21 NC State at Florida State+3
Sat 11/28 NC State at North Carolina-5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST#20 (.28)44% (50)30.244% (64)2.94 (68)14744% (44)2464.69 (8)#102 (.21)39% (39)27.238% (19)40% (55)3.7 (72)53.811.2
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NCST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Offense1330.22343.8%4.691203931472464.547%51%44%44%16%.28
UNC Defense1224.52640.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NCST Defense1327.239.839.2%3.71.2 - - - - - 43%56%38%40%15%.21
UNC Offense1219.32138.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
NC State1329:5620.441%50%5.553.811.25.11.5127.9
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Offense1347% (86)44% (64)32.5147.14.527 (40).19 (33)2.94 (68)73% (61)10% (98)1.1 (19)
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NCST Defense1343% (6)38% (19) - - - - .12 (80)2.87 (64)65% (25)8% (109)1.09 (124)
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Offense1351% (49)44% (44)21.531.8245.77.711.426 (33)10 (119).39 (25)1.6 (33)31% (65)32% (49).4 (32)6% (51)2.1 (53)
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NCST Defense1356% (134)40% (55) - - - - - - 9 (75).3 (90)1.7 (117)35% (21)31% (91).38 (111)7% (46)2.1 (83)
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 9.52  #27
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.15  #21
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.63  #42
2026 Talent Rating: 830.00  #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
NC State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4  #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.52   North Carolina: 1.485

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 4.8   North Carolina: -6.6




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 1.485  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 23
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

NC State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
NC State 29
North Carolina 24

Projected Total Points: 53
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29NC State42North Carolina19NC State -7NC State48.5Over
202411/30North Carolina30NC State35North Carolina -2.5NC State54.5Over
202311/25NC State39North Carolina20North Carolina -2NC State55.0Over
202211/25North Carolina27NC State30North Carolina -6.5NC State56.0Over
202111/26NC State34North Carolina30NC State -6.5North Carolina62.0Over
202010/24North Carolina48NC State21North Carolina -15.0North Carolina62.0Over
201911/30NC State10North Carolina41North Carolina -11North Carolina57.0Under
201811/24North Carolina28NC State34NC State -7.5North Carolina61.5Over
201711/25NC State33North Carolina21NC State -14.5North Carolina57.0Under
201611/25North Carolina21NC State28North Carolina -10NC State63.0Under
201511/28NC State34North Carolina45North Carolina -6North Carolina65.0Over
201411/29North Carolina7NC State35North Carolina -6NC State0
201311/02NC State19North Carolina27North Carolina -3North Carolina0
201210/27North Carolina43NC State35
201111/05NC State13North Carolina0
201011/20North Carolina25NC State29
200911/28NC State28North Carolina27
200811/22North Carolina10NC State41
200711/10NC State31North Carolina27
200611/18North Carolina23NC State9
200509/24NC State24North Carolina31
200410/09North Carolina30NC State24
200309/27NC State47North Carolina34
200210/12North Carolina17NC State34
200109/29NC State9North Carolina17
200010/13North Carolina20NC State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina978 Overs
NC State1763 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 144 - 92 - 62 - 3
Road Teams14 - 129 - 43 - 26 - 2

(#27) NCST at (#45) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNCSTUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #27 #45
SP+SP+ #55 #91
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #42 #13
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #29
NC State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #50 #60
ExplosiveExp #13 #62
PPAPPA #20 #78
PowerPwr #21 #32
SP+SP+ #45 #58
Pts POPPO #8 #61
HavocHav #74 #91
NC State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #64 #64
Run ExplRExp #19 #88
PPAExp #33 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #68 #37
Stuff RateStuff #112 #99
TackleTak - NR
NC State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
NCST OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #44 #50
Pass ExplPExl #33 #17
PPAExp #25 #51
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #98 #70
DB HavocDB #51 #90
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffNCST Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #39
ExplosiveExp #121 #134
PPAPPA #119 #102
PowerPwr #67 #42
SP+SP+ #123 #64
Pts POPPO #108 #72
HavocHav #94 #86
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffNCST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #19
Run ExplRExp #127 #124
PPAExp #130 #80
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #64
Stuff RateStuff #67 #65
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCatUNC OffNCST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #55
Pass ExplPExl #103 #117
PPAExp #92 #90
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #109
DB HavocDB #55 #46
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
NC State beat North Carolina last year (42-19)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2024 (35-30)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2023 (39-20)

  
NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Bailey27339769%31052597.8
Will Wilson3560%16013.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jayden Scott10659545.669
Davion Gause (Tr)6125834.225
CJ Bailey8921562.430
Will Wilson43146103.416
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Victor Snow (Tr)62815813.175
Davion Dozier (Tr)20448522.468
Teddy Hoffmann25349314.055
Keenan Jackson28281210.033

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Asaad Brown Jr.640002
King Mack (Tr)581113
Ronnie Royal III492001
Jackson Vick452006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harvey Dyson III3110701
Chase Bond116220
Joseph Adedire62100
King Mack (Tr)581113
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Vick452006
Brian Nelson II291006
King Mack (Tr)581113

UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002