North Carolina at NC State - 2023 Matchup Preview

North Carolina Tar Heels at NC State Wolfpack

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (8:00 PM EST)
North Carolina -2 (55.0) (-135) Open: -2.5
NC State 39 - North Carolina: 20 (ACC)

Tar Heels (8 - 5) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (33 - 22)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.2 - 3.8 (#22)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNC 2nd straight Road Game
NCST is playing their 5th straight game
UNC is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: NC State -0 (SP+ UNC -1)
Projected Score: UNC: 26 - NCST: 26 (52)
UNC Win prob: 55% | Cover: 50%
UNC Travel: 20 miles

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNC Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Carolina's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	North Carolina vs South Carolina	+2.5	63.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/9	North Carolina vs App State	-18.0	58.0	W 40 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/16	North Carolina vs Minnesota	-7.0	51.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/23	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	-7.0	49.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	North Carolina vs Syracuse	-9.5	59.0	W 40 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/14	North Carolina vs Miami	-2.5	57.5	W 41 - 31	O	Y
Sat 10/21	North Carolina vs Virginia	-24.0	58.0	L 27 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/28	North Carolina at Georgia Tech	-12.0	65.5	L 42 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/4	North Carolina vs Campbell	-45.5	68.5	W 59 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/11	North Carolina vs Duke	-9.5	52.5	W 47 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/18	North Carolina at Clemson	+7.5	58.0	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/25	North Carolina at NC State	-2.0	55.0	L 20 - 39	O	N
Wed 12/27	North Carolina vs West Virginia	+4.5	62.0	L 10 - 30	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC	.3	46%	19.3	45%	3.18	153	47%	309	4.47	.29	48%	24.5	49%	48%	4.51	55.3	1	1.1
NCST	.13	39%	30.2	40%	2.81	114	38%	226	3.52	.1	35%	27.2	33%	37%	3.39	57.8	1.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Offense	14	19.3	17.5	46.2%	4.47	1	25	463	153	309	4.2	45%	55%	45%	47%	14%	.3
NCST Defense	13	27.2	21	35.1%	3.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	33%	37%	19%	.1

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNC Defense	14	24.5	23	48.3%	4.51	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	49%	48%	12%	.29
NCST Offense	13	30.2	35.3	38.8%	3.52	1.2	20	340	114	226	3.4	44%	55%	40%	38%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Carolina	14	29:55	24.6	46%	71%	6.1	55.3	1	1.1	3.4	1.2	1	29.7
NC State	13	31:23	20.4	36%	40%	7.3	57.8	1.2	1.7	6.5	2.2	2	31.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Offense	14	45%	45%	36.4	153.4	4.2	24	.18	3.18	72%	10%	1
NCST Defense	13	42%	33%	-	-	-	-	.01	2.51	53%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNC Defense	14	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	.18	3.25	79%	6%	0.87
NCST Offense	13	44%	40%	34	113.8	3.4	8	.02	2.81	71%	10%	0.82

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Offense	14	55%	47%	24.6	37.5	309.3	8.3	12.6	38	7	.41	1.6	32%	40%	.5	4%	1.9
NCST Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	19	.2	1.6	38%	30%	.36	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNC Defense	14	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.41	1.6	28%	31%	.4	6%	2.2
NCST Offense	13	55%	38%	20.7	36.2	226.1	6.2	10.9	23	8	.25	1.5	35%	27%	.32	6%	2.1

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 9.47 #25
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 22.89 #20
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 10.64 #81
2023 Talent Rating: 805.63 #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 44% #18
North Carolina's 2023 Expected Record: 9.20 - 3.80
North Carolina's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.2 #27
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #13
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4 #71

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 9.47 NC State: 10.03

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 10.2 NC State: 9.4

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 10.03 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 700.85 #38
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 26
NC State 26

Projected Total Points: 52

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	NC State	42	North Carolina	19	NC State -7	NC State	48.5	Over
2024	11/30	North Carolina	30	NC State	35	North Carolina -2.5	NC State	54.5	Over
2023	11/25	NC State	39	North Carolina	20	North Carolina -2	NC State	55.0	Over
2022	11/25	North Carolina	27	NC State	30	North Carolina -6.5	NC State	56.0	Over
2021	11/26	NC State	34	North Carolina	30	NC State -6.5	North Carolina	62.0	Over
2020	10/24	North Carolina	48	NC State	21	North Carolina -15.0	North Carolina	62.0	Over
2019	11/30	NC State	10	North Carolina	41	North Carolina -11	North Carolina	57.0	Under
2018	11/24	North Carolina	28	NC State	34	NC State -7.5	North Carolina	61.5	Over
2017	11/25	NC State	33	North Carolina	21	NC State -14.5	North Carolina	57.0	Under
2016	11/25	North Carolina	21	NC State	28	North Carolina -10	NC State	63.0	Under
2015	11/28	NC State	34	North Carolina	45	North Carolina -6	North Carolina	65.0	Over
2014	11/29	North Carolina	7	NC State	35	North Carolina -6	NC State	0
2013	11/02	NC State	19	North Carolina	27	North Carolina -3	North Carolina	0
2012	10/27	North Carolina	43	NC State	35
2011	11/05	NC State	13	North Carolina	0
2010	11/20	North Carolina	25	NC State	29
2009	11/28	NC State	28	North Carolina	27
2008	11/22	North Carolina	10	NC State	41
2007	11/10	NC State	31	North Carolina	27
2006	11/18	North Carolina	23	NC State	9
2005	09/24	NC State	24	North Carolina	31
2004	10/09	North Carolina	30	NC State	24
2003	09/27	NC State	47	North Carolina	34
2002	10/12	North Carolina	17	NC State	34
2001	09/29	NC State	9	North Carolina	17
2000	10/13	North Carolina	20	NC State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	17	6	8 Overs
North Carolina	9	7	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	4 - 9	2 - 6	2 - 3
Road Teams	14 - 12	9 - 4	3 - 2	6 - 2

(#25) UNC at (#34) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNC	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#25	#34
SP+SP+	#27	#30
Perf GradeGrade	#35	#81
OffenseOff	#34	#110
DefenseDef	#47	#44
Spec TeamsST	#119	#57
TalentTal	#17	#38
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#34

North Carolina Injury Report

NC State Injury Report

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#34	#44
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#20	#17
SP+SP+	#13	#16
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#26	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#102	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#10

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#8	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#42	#96
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UNC Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#110	#47
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#83	#81
SP+SP+	#69	#71
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#93	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#54

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#72	#41
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
North Carolina 2.0 (55.0)
NC State won vs North Carolina this year (39-20)

Previous Matchups
NC State beat North Carolina last year (42-19)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2024 (35-30)
NC State beat North Carolina in 2023 (39-20)

UNC's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Drake Maye	269	425	63%	3608	24	9	8.5
Conner Harrell	22	33	67%	270	2	2	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omarion Hampton	253	1504	15	5.9	68
Drake Maye	112	449	9	4.0	56
British Brooks	74	375	2	5.1	53
Conner Harrell	22	75	1	3.4	61

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
J.J. Jones	46	711	3	15.5	57
Devontez Walker (Tr)	41	699	7	17.0	56
Bryson Nesbit	41	585	5	14.3	62
Nate Mccollum (Tr)	44	469	1	10.7	48

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cedric Gray	121	11	5	7	4
Power Echols	102	6	0	4	1
Don Chapman	64	5	1	2	1
Antavious Lane (Tr)	62	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kaimon Rucker	61	15	9	12	1
Cedric Gray	121	11	5	7	4
Beau Atkinson	19	5	4	3	0
Desmond Evans	33	5	3	7	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcus Allen	49	1	0	0	8
Alijah Huzzie (Tr)	42	1	0	1	6
Desmond Evans	33	5	3	7	5

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5