Oregon at North Carolina - 2022 Matchup Preview
Oregon logo   Oregon Ducks vs North Carolina Tar Heels  North Carolina logo
Wednesday, December 28th 2022 (8:00 PM EST)
Oregon -13 (76.0) (375)  Open: -10.5 | 74.0
Oregon 28 - North Carolina: 27  (San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl)

 
Ducks (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (33 - 16 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Tar Heels (9 - 5) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Mack Brown (21 - 17)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (21 - 26 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3 Oregon vs Georgia+16.054.5L 3 - 49UN
Sat 9/10 Oregon vs Eastern Washington-27.569.5W 70 - 14OY
Sat 9/17 Oregon vs BYU-3.558.0W 41 - 20OY
Sat 9/24 Oregon at Washington State-6.057.0W 44 - 41ON
Sat 10/1 Oregon vs Stanford-17.063.0W 45 - 27OY
Sat 10/8 Oregon at Arizona-13.570.5W 49 - 22OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/22 Oregon vs UCLA-7.070.5W 45 - 30OY
Sat 10/29 Oregon at California-16.556.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 11/5 Oregon at Colorado-31.062.5W 49 - 10UY
Sat 11/12 Oregon vs Washington-12.073.0L 34 - 37UN
Sat 11/19 Oregon vs Utah+2.560.0W 20 - 17UY
Sat 11/26 Oregon at Oregon State+1.057.0L 34 - 38ON
Wed 12/28 Oregon vs North Carolina-13.076.0W 28 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
North Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27 North Carolina vs Florida A&M-45.055.0W 56 - 24ON
Sat 9/3 North Carolina at App State+3.056.0W 63 - 61OY
Sat 9/10 North Carolina at Georgia State-7.064.0W 35 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/24 North Carolina vs Notre Dame-2.555.0L 32 - 45ON
Sat 10/1 North Carolina vs Virginia Tech-9.557.0W 41 - 10UY
Sat 10/8 North Carolina at Miami+4.067.5W 27 - 24UY
Sat 10/15 North Carolina at Duke-7.070.0W 38 - 35ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/29 North Carolina vs Pittsburgh-2.565.5W 42 - 24OY
Sat 11/5 North Carolina at Virginia-7.061.5W 31 - 28UN
Sat 11/12 North Carolina at Wake Forest+4.579.0W 36 - 34UY
Sat 11/19 North Carolina vs Georgia Tech-21.563.5L 17 - 21UN
Fri 11/25 North Carolina vs NC State-6.556.0L 27 - 30ON
Sat 12/3 North Carolina vs Clemson+7.564.0L 10 - 39UN
Wed 12/28 North Carolina vs Oregon+13.076.0L 27 - 28UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE.2749%36.954%3.5120243%2214.55.245%17.946%44%4.2364.611.7
UNC.2846%19.351%3.4321341%2564.53.2646%24.549%43%4.2469.21.11.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Offense1436.932.848.8%4.551234242022215.354%45%54%43%13%.27
UNC Defense1324.52645.9%4.241.2 - - - - - 53%46%49%43%15%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Defense1417.915.645%4.231.7 - - - - - 46%53%46%44%15%.2
UNC Offense1319.32146.3%4.531.1244682132565.452%48%51%41%17%.28

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon1429:4622.751%47%7.464.611.75.11.6129.5
North Carolina1329:4123.843%58%7.369.21.11.25.52.2028.7
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Offense1454%54%38.2202.45.336.293.5184%8%0.96
UNC Defense1353%49% - - - - .193.2982%9%0.95
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Defense1446%46% - - - - .163.0272%9%0.96
UNC Offense1352%51%39.5212.75.430.373.4371%12%1.21

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Offense1445%43%18.529.3221.37.612208.281.628%34%.416%2
UNC Defense1346%43% - - - - - - 11.361.730%29%.356%2.1
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Defense1453%44% - - - - - - 17.251.530%34%.356%1.9
UNC Offense1348%41%18.229.4255.78.714269.221.630%38%.545%2.2

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: NR
Oregon's Offense Rating: NR
Oregon's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Oregon's 2022 Expected Record: -
Oregon's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.9  #11
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.9  #5
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #66

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon:    North Carolina: 3.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 18.9   North Carolina: 7.8




North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 3.9 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2022 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.8  #46
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 41.7  #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #104

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Oregon Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.8
Defense: 17.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.6

Oregon's 2022 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 30
North Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 49
North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26

North Carolina's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202212/28North Carolina27Oregon28Oregon -13North Carolina76.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
North Carolina010 Overs
Oregon101 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

Oregon Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Holiday Bowl Oregon vs North Carolina-13.076.0W 28 - 27
2021Alamo Bowl Oregon vs Oklahoma+7.064.0L 32 - 47
2020Fiesta Bowl Oregon vs Iowa State+4.557.5L 17 - 34
2019Rose Bowl Oregon vs Wisconsin+3.053.0W 28 - 27
2018N/A Oregon vs Michigan State+1.047.0W 7 - 6
2017Vegas Bowl Oregon vs Boise State-7.063.0L 28 - 38
North Carolina Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Holiday Bowl North Carolina vs Oregon+13.076.0L 27 - 28
2021Mayo Bowl North Carolina vs South Carolina-12.557.5L 21 - 38
2020Orange Bowl North Carolina vs Texas A&M+7.067.5L 27 - 41
2019Military Bowl North Carolina vs Temple-6.056.5W 55 - 13
2016N/A North Carolina vs Stanford+2.555.0L 23 - 25
  
(#) ORE at (#) UNC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatOREUNC
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #11 #46
Perf GradeGrade #22 #65
OffenseOff #14 #43
DefenseDef #60 #102
Spec TeamsST #98 #25
TalentTal #7 #16
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Oregon on Offense
CategoryCat
ORE OffUNC Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #14 #102
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #5 #104
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Oregon Run Game
CategoryCat
ORE OffUNC Def
Run GameRun #4 #98
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #20
Oregon Pass Game
CategoryCat
ORE OffUNC Def
Pass GamePass #31 #102
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #4 #62
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
North Carolina on Offense
CategoryCatUNC OffORE Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #43 #60
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #11 #66
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
North Carolina Run Game
CategoryCat
UNC OffORE Def
Run GameRun #62 #94
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #117 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #18
North Carolina Pass Game
CategoryCatUNC OffORE Def
Pass GamePass #2 #27
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #78 #101
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'22 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ORE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top 25 Contenders
'22 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Petco Park
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Oregon 13.0 (76.0)
Oregon won at North Carolina this year (28-27)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
ORE's OC Kenny Dillingham (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Oregon's Full Roster

ORE's DC Tosh Lupoi (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Gene Chizik (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD