Georgia State at North Carolina - 2021 Matchup Preview

Georgia State Panthers at North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, September 11th 2021 (7:30 PM EDT)
North Carolina -26 (65.0)
North Carolina 59 - Georgia State: 17

Panthers (8 - 5) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Shawn Elliott (23 - 27)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (29 - 32 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -5 (SP+ UNC -5)
Projected Score: GAST: 27 - UNC: 33 (60)
UNC Win prob: 95% | Cover: 58%
GAST Travel: 338 miles

Tar Heels (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mack Brown (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 35 - 32 (45 - 30 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
GAST Players
UNC Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Georgia State's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Georgia State vs Army	-2.5	50.0	L 10 - 43	O	N
Sat 9/11	Georgia State at North Carolina	+26.0	65.0	L 17 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/18	Georgia State vs Charlotte	-4.5	62.5	W 20 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/25	Georgia State at Auburn	+27.5	57.5	L 24 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Georgia State vs App State	+10.5	54.5	L 16 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/9	Georgia State at UL Monroe	-16.0	49.5	W 55 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/23	Georgia State vs Texas State	-10.0	58.5	W 28 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Georgia State at Georgia Southern	-6.0	55.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Thu 11/4	Georgia State at Louisiana	+13.5	53.5	L 17 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Georgia State at Coastal Carolina	+12.5	53.5	W 42 - 40	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Georgia State vs Arkansas State	-15.5	66.0	W 28 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/27	Georgia State vs Troy	-6.5	49.5	W 37 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/25	Georgia State vs Ball State	-6.0	52.5	W 51 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia State's Schedule

North Carolina's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	North Carolina at Virginia Tech	-5.5	63.5	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/11	North Carolina vs Georgia State	-26.0	65.0	W 59 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	North Carolina vs Virginia	-7.5	67.0	W 59 - 39	O	Y
Sat 9/25	North Carolina vs Georgia Tech	-14.5	66.0	L 22 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/2	North Carolina vs Duke	-19.5	74.0	W 38 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/9	North Carolina vs Florida State	-17.5	64.5	L 25 - 35	U	N
Sat 10/16	North Carolina vs Miami	-7.5	63.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	North Carolina at Notre Dame	+3.5	63.0	L 34 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/6	North Carolina vs Wake Forest	-2.5	78.0	W 58 - 55	O	Y
Thu 11/11	North Carolina at Pittsburgh	+6.5	72.0	L 23 - 30	U	N
Sat 11/20	North Carolina vs Wofford	-37.0	62.0	W 34 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/26	North Carolina at NC State	+6.5	62.0	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Thu 12/30	North Carolina vs South Carolina	-12.5	57.5	L 21 - 38	O	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	.24	47%	28.2	49%	3.27	225	45%	162	4.54	.2	39%	27.1	38%	40%	3.55	50.5	1.2	2
UNC	.28	46%	35.2	51%	3.43	213	41%	256	4.53	.26	46%	32.1	49%	43%	4.24	69.2	1.1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
GAST	#92 (.15)	41% (90)		42% (92)	2.94 (86)	134	41% (79)	256	3.85 (76)	#121 (.28)	48% (123)		49% (119)	46% (118)	4.42 (120)	49.1	1.6	1.4
UNC	#65 (.2)	42% (80)		47% (34)	3.32 (22)	175	37% (114)	216	4.08 (52)	#70 (.17)	41% (53)		44% (82)	37% (26)	4.01 (90)	59.8	1.2	1.2

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Offense	13	28.2	29.3	47.1%	4.54	1.2	21	387	225	162	5	62%	38%	49%	45%	17%	.24
UNC Defense	13	32.1	29.9	45.9%	4.24	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	49%	43%	15%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
GAST Defense	13	27.1	31.5	39.4%	3.55	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	38%	40%	21%	.2
UNC Offense	13	35.2	45.4	46.3%	4.53	1.1	24	468	213	256	5.4	52%	48%	51%	41%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Georgia State	13	28:21	21.5	42%	56%	5.4	50.5	1.2	2	6.9	2.8	1	26
North Carolina	13	29:41	23.8	43%	58%	7.3	69.2	1.1	1.2	5.5	2.2	0	28.7

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Offense	13	62%	49%	45.1	225.5	5	25	.23	3.27	79%	11%	0.97
UNC Defense	13	53%	49%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.29	82%	9%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
GAST Defense	13	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.8	81%	14%	1.04
UNC Offense	13	52%	51%	39.5	212.7	5.4	30	.37	3.43	71%	12%	1.21

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Offense	13	38%	45%	13.8	23.9	161.6	6.8	11.7	19	8	.3	1.5	27%	31%	.23	6%	1.8
UNC Defense	13	46%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.36	1.7	30%	29%	.35	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
GAST Defense	13	50%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.29	1.7	35%	31%	.38	7%	2.2
UNC Offense	13	48%	41%	18.2	29.4	255.7	8.7	14	26	9	.22	1.6	30%	38%	.54	5%	2.2

Georgia State's Power Ratings
Georgia State's Power Rating: NR
Georgia State's Offense Rating: NR
Georgia State's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Georgia State's 2021 Expected Record: -
Georgia State's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #71
Georgia State's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #78
Georgia State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #65

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: North Carolina: 5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia State: 1.8 North Carolina: 6.4

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 5.7 NR
North Carolina's Offense Rating: NR
North Carolina's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #17
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
North Carolina's 2021 Expected Record: -
North Carolina's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.4 #59
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.8 #11
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.7 #101

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Georgia State Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.3
Defense: 27.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.5

Georgia State's 2021 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
North Carolina 33
Georgia State 27

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
North Carolina 31
Georgia State 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
North Carolina 35
Georgia State 30

Total Points: 65

North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 35.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.4
Defense: 32.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.9

North Carolina's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2022	09/10	Georgia State	28	North Carolina	35	North Carolina -7	NA	64.0	Under
2021	09/11	North Carolina	59	Georgia State	17	North Carolina -26	North Carolina	65.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Carolina	2	1	1 Overs
Georgia State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#) GAST at (#) UNC

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	GAST	UNC
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#71	#59
Perf GradeGrade	#60	#64
OffenseOff	#62	#30
DefenseDef	#63	#106
Spec TeamsST	#95	#36
TalentTal	#102	#17
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Georgia State Injury Report

North Carolina Injury Report

Georgia State on Offense


CategoryCat	GAST Off	UNC Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#62	#106
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#78	#101
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Georgia State Run Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	UNC Def
Run GameRun	#56	#85
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#36	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#63

Georgia State Pass Game


CategoryCat	GAST Off	UNC Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#102
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#110	#110
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

North Carolina on Offense


CategoryCat	UNC Off	GAST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#30	#63
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#11	#65
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

North Carolina Run Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	GAST Def
Run GameRun	#2	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#63	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#94

North Carolina Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNC Off	GAST Def
Pass GamePass	#24	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#27
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

GAST 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'21 Profile: Up to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kenan Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 72°

Rematch from Week 2
North Carolina -26.0 (65.0)
North Carolina won vs Georgia State this year (59-17)

Previous Matchups
North Carolina beat Georgia State in 2022 (35-28)

GAST's OC Brad Glenn (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Georgia State's Full Roster

GAST's DC Nate Fuqua (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UNC's OC Phil Longo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD