North Carolina at TCU - 2026 Matchup Preview
North Carolina logo North Carolina Tar Heels at TCU Horned FrogsTCU logo
Saturday, August 29th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Aviva Stadium - Dublin, Ireland

 
Tar Heels (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bill Belichick (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 25 (18 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#96)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: TCU -11.5  (SP+ TCU -15)
Projected Score: UNC: 19 - TCU: 31 (50)
TCU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
UNC Travel: 3605 miles, 5 hrs behind
Horned Frogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Sonny Dykes (36 - 17)
Avg Score : 31 - 25 (36 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 4.7 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 North Carolina at TCU+11.5
Sat 9/12 North Carolina vs East Tennessee State-22.5
Sat 9/19 North Carolina at Clemson+12
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 North Carolina vs Notre Dame+25
Sat 10/10 North Carolina at Pittsburgh+11.5
Sat 10/17 North Carolina at Duke+8
Sat 10/24 North Carolina vs Syracuse-9
Sat 10/31 North Carolina vs Miami+22
Sat 11/7 North Carolina at UConn-1
Sat 11/14 North Carolina vs Louisville+9
Sat 11/21 North Carolina at Virginia+12
Sat 11/28 North Carolina vs NC State+5.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Carolina's Schedule
TCU's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29 TCU vs North Carolina-11.5
Sat 9/12 TCU vs Grambling-31.5
Sat 9/19 TCU vs Arkansas State-21.5
Sat 9/26 TCU at UCF-8
Sat 10/3 TCU vs BYU+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 TCU at Baylor-3.5
Sat 10/24 TCU vs West Virginia-13
Sat 10/31 TCU vs Kansas-9
Sat 11/7 TCU at Arizona+2.5
Sat 11/14 TCU vs Kansas State-4.5
Sat 11/21 TCU vs Utah+6
Sat 11/28 TCU at Texas Tech+21

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for TCU's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC#119 (.07)38% (115)19.338% (121)2.72 (110)10539% (98)1843.33 (108)#78 (.18)41% (60)24.542% (64)40% (50)3.58 (61)62.61.31
TCU#36 (.21)44% (48)30.743% (79)2.7 (113)13247% (24)2904.14 (34)#59 (.15)40% (53)25.338% (23)43% (86)3.49 (54)621.51.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UNC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TCU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Offense1219.317.538.2%3.331.3172891051843.748%50%38%39%17%.07
TCU Defense1325.324.240.3%3.491.6 - - - - - 48%50%38%43%15%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UNC Defense1224.52340.9%3.581 - - - - - 47%51%42%40%15%.18
TCU Offense1330.73644.3%4.141.522422132290445%53%43%47%15%.21

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
North Carolina1228:2416.637%73%6.662.61.315.12.6029.3
TCU1328:5122.247%64%6.8621.51.65.21.8130
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Offense1248% (83)38% (121)28.8105.23.711 (107)-.03 (130)2.72 (110)64% (114)11% (111)0.8 (127)
TCU Defense1348% (51)38% (23) - - - - .06 (44)2.84 (58)68% (48)9% (84)0.88 (26)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UNC Defense1247% (36)42% (64) - - - - .14 (91)2.72 (37)89% (134)10% (70)0.99 (88)
TCU Offense1345% (104)43% (79)33.3131.8420 (60).04 (109)2.7 (113)77% (35)9% (71)0.83 (121)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Offense1250% (58)39% (98)18.929.6183.96.29.713 (121)6 (34).21 (92)1.5 (103)31% (56)28% (92).26 (85)6% (55)1.8 (130)
TCU Defense1350% (85)43% (86) - - - - - - 14 (22).3 (92)1.7 (111)32% (66)32% (94).35 (96)6% (75)2.1 (102)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UNC Defense1251% (103)40% (50) - - - - - - 6 (75).2 (51)1.4 (17)31% (76)29% (61).32 (78)5% (90)2 (51)
TCU Offense1353% (34)47% (24)23.535.4290.18.212.330 (3)15 (108).41 (20)1.6 (35)33% (89)34% (23).45 (20)6% (72)2.1 (26)

North Carolina's Power Ratings
North Carolina's Power Rating: 4.57  #45
North Carolina's Offense Rating: 10.85  #67
North Carolina's Defense Rating: 11.28  #32
2026 Talent Rating: 1006.00  #13
Blue Chip Ratio: 17%  #29
North Carolina's 2026 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
North Carolina's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.6  #91
North Carolina's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.2  #123
North Carolina's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: 4.57   TCU: 10.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Carolina: -6.6   TCU: 8.3




TCU's Power Ratings
TCU's Power Rating: 10.67  #32
TCU's Offense Rating: 13.74  #45
TCU's Defense Rating: 10.70  #30
2026 Talent Rating: 866.00  #32
Blue Chip Ratio: 16  #31
TCU's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 4.7
TCU's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.3  #37
TCU's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9  #30
TCU's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.9  #50

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75


North Carolina Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

North Carolina's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
TCU 31
North Carolina 19

Projected Total Points: 50
TCU Scoring
Offense: 30.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

TCU's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/01North Carolina14TCU48TCU -3TCU59.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
TCU111 Overs
North Carolina000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#45) UNC at (#32) TCU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUNCTCU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #45 #32
SP+SP+ #91 #37
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #13 #32
Blue ChipsBC% #29 #31
North Carolina on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffTCU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #115 #53
ExplosiveExp #121 #92
PPAPPA #119 #59
PowerPwr #67 #30
SP+SP+ #123 #50
Pts POPPO #108 #54
HavocHav #94 #86
North Carolina Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffTCU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #121 #23
Run ExplRExp #127 #26
PPAExp #130 #44
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #110 #58
Stuff RateStuff #67 #95
TackleTak - NR
North Carolina Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat
UNC OffTCU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #98 #86
Pass ExplPExl #103 #111
PPAExp #92 #92
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #84
DB HavocDB #55 #75
TCU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffUNC Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #48 #60
ExplosiveExp #46 #62
PPAPPA #36 #78
PowerPwr #45 #32
SP+SP+ #30 #58
Pts POPPO #34 #61
HavocHav #64 #91
TCU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat
TCU OffUNC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #79 #64
Run ExplRExp #121 #88
PPAExp #109 #91
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #113 #37
Stuff RateStuff #114 #99
TackleTak - NR
TCU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 46%
CategoryCatTCU OffUNC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #24 #50
Pass ExplPExl #35 #17
PPAExp #20 #51
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #71 #70
DB HavocDB #72 #90
Program Comparison
TCU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Remains Average P4

UNC 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aviva Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
TCU beat North Carolina last year (48-14)

  
UNC's OC Bobby Petrino (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Billy Edwards71644%113007.1
Miles O'Neill (Tr)71450%120128.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demon June8446425.550
Benjamin Hall7127423.918
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)1412919.261
Jaylen McGill71902.77
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Shipp60671611.255
Trech Kekahuna (Tr)2621108.145
Demon June1715919.472
Jordan Washington (Tr)7109115.632

View North Carolina's Full Roster

UNC's DC Stephen Belichick (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Kaleb Cost452005
Isaiah Johnson373210
Leroy Jackson340021
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Melkart Abou-Jaoude47121150
Isaiah Johnson373210
Jaylen Harvey (Tr)92110
Xavier Lewis81100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Cost452005
Jaiden Patterson332005
Coleman Bryson160002

TCU's OC Gordon Sammis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaden Craig (Tr)20433162%28292578.5
John Hoyet Chance010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremy Payne11062355.751
Jon Denman5017833.616
Jaden Craig (Tr)487831.626
Major Everhart5701.411
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Dwyer54730713.569
Jeremy Scott (Tr)24417417.474
Jeremy Payne2220729.444
Ed Small16186211.641

View TCU's Full Roster

TCU's DC Andy Avalos (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamel Johnson963003
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014
Vernon Glover411006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Koron Hayward (Tr)194321
Kylin Jackson265321
Ansel Din-Mbuh247220
Zachary Chapman283240
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vernon Glover411006
Jacob Fields (Tr)903015
Kalen Carroll (Tr)492014