Duke at NC State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Friday, November 6th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Carter-Finley Stadium - Raleigh, NC

Blue Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#41)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NCST 2nd straight Home Game
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: NC State -5.5 (SP+ DUKE -2)
Projected Score: DUKE: 28 - NCST: 33 (61)
NCST Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
DUKE Travel: 18 miles

Wolfpack (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (95 - 70)
Avg Score : 30 - 27 (35 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#62)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Duke vs Tulane	-9
Sat 9/12	Duke at Illinois	+9
Sat 9/19	Duke vs Stanford	-11.5
Sat 9/26	Duke vs William & Mary	-28
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Duke at Georgia Tech	+5
Sat 10/17	Duke vs North Carolina	-8
Fri 10/23	Duke at Virginia	+6.5
Sat 10/31	Duke vs Boston College	-11.5
Fri 11/6	Duke at NC State	+5.5
Sat 11/14	Duke at Miami	+21.5
Sat 11/21	Duke vs Clemson	+2
Sat 11/28	Duke at Wake Forest	+4.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

NC State's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	NC State at Virginia	+3.5
Sat 9/12	NC State vs Richmond	-30.5
Sat 9/19	NC State at Vanderbilt	+12
Sat 9/26	NC State vs App State	-20.5
Sat 10/3	NC State vs Louisville	+1
Sat 10/10	NC State vs Wake Forest	-3.5
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/23	NC State at Stanford	-9.5
Fri 10/30	NC State vs California	-9
Fri 11/6	NC State vs Duke	-5.5
Sat 11/14	NC State vs Syracuse	-17
Sat 11/21	NC State at Florida State	+3
Sat 11/28	NC State at North Carolina	-5.5

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#25 (.25)	46% (30)	34.6	45% (51)	2.8 (99)	138	47% (20)	285	4.32 (26)	#116 (.23)	44% (98)	29.4	43% (73)	46% (119)	4.39 (129)	62.7	1	1.7
NCST	#20 (.28)	44% (50)	30.2	44% (64)	2.94 (68)	147	44% (44)	246	4.69 (8)	#102 (.21)	39% (39)	27.2	38% (19)	40% (55)	3.7 (72)	53.8	1	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NCST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	14	34.6	37	46%	4.32	1	23	424	138	285	4.3	44%	55%	45%	47%	15%	.25
NCST Defense	13	27.2	21	39.2%	3.7	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	38%	40%	15%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	14	29.4	27.5	43.8%	4.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	46%	17%	.23
NCST Offense	13	30.2	35.3	43.8%	4.69	1	20	393	147	246	4.5	47%	51%	44%	44%	16%	.28

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	14	29:43	22.5	39%	74%	6.4	62.7	1	1.7	6.7	1.9	3	31.3
NC State	13	29:56	20.4	41%	50%	5.5	53.8	1	1.2	5.1	1.5	1	27.9

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	14	44% (112)	45% (51)	32.4	138.2	4.3	26 (60)	.08 (85)	2.8 (99)	69% (85)	10% (79)	0.97 (65)
NCST Defense	13	43% (6)	38% (19)	-	-	-	-	.12 (80)	2.87 (64)	65% (25)	8% (109)	1.09 (124)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	14	48% (49)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.1 (68)	2.62 (19)	73% (85)	12% (14)	1.03 (101)
NCST Offense	13	47% (86)	44% (64)	32.5	147.1	4.5	27 (40)	.19 (33)	2.94 (68)	73% (61)	10% (98)	1.1 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	14	55% (21)	47% (20)	24	36.1	285.4	7.9	11.9	34 (14)	6 (7)	.39 (24)	1.6 (44)	30% (39)	33% (37)	.4 (30)	6% (55)	2.2 (13)
NCST Defense	13	56% (134)	40% (55)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (75)	.3 (90)	1.7 (117)	35% (21)	31% (91)	.38 (111)	7% (46)	2.1 (83)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	14	50% (86)	46% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (22)	.41 (125)	1.6 (107)	32% (56)	34% (123)	.44 (128)	6% (86)	2 (77)
NCST Offense	13	51% (49)	44% (44)	21.5	31.8	245.7	7.7	11.4	26 (33)	10 (119)	.39 (25)	1.6 (33)	31% (65)	32% (49)	.4 (32)	6% (51)	2.1 (53)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 1.91 #57
Duke's Offense Rating: 15.11 #32
Duke's Defense Rating: 18.20 #74
2026 Talent Rating: 762.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #54
Duke's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 1.91 NC State: 9.66

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.6 NC State: 4.8

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 9.66 #27
NC State's Offense Rating: 18.15 #21
NC State's Defense Rating: 13.63 #42
2026 Talent Rating: 830.00 #42
Blue Chip Ratio: 10 #39
NC State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.4 - 5.6
NC State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8 #55
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #45
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.5 #64

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
NC State 33
Duke 28

Projected Total Points: 61

NC State Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.3
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

NC State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Duke	45	NC State	33	Duke -3	Duke	57.5	Over
2024	11/09	NC State	19	Duke	29	NC State -3.5	Duke	51.5	Under
2023	10/14	Duke	24	NC State	3	Duke -3.5	Duke	44.0	Under
2020	10/17	NC State	31	Duke	20	NC State -3.5	NC State	59.5	Under
2013	11/09	Duke	38	NC State	20	Duke -9	Duke	0
2009	10/10	NC State	28	Duke	49
2008	11/08	Duke	17	NC State	27
2003	10/25	Duke	21	NC State	28
2002	10/19	NC State	24	Duke	22
2001	11/03	Duke	31	NC State	55
2000	11/10	NC State	35	Duke	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	6	1	1 Overs
Duke	5	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	4 - 1	4 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 6	1 - 4	0 - 0	1 - 4

(#57) DUKE at (#27) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#57	#27
SP+SP+	#44	#55
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#62	#42
Blue ChipsBC%	#54	#39

Duke Injury Report

NC State Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#30	#39
ExplosiveExp	#30	#134
PPAPPA	#25	#102
PowerPwr	#32	#42
SP+SP+	#19	#64
Pts POPPO	#26	#72
HavocHav	#67	#86

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#19
Run ExplRExp	#65	#124
PPAExp	#85	#80
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#64
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#65
TackleTak	-	NR

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#55
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#117
PPAExp	#24	#90
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#79	#109
DB HavocDB	#55	#46

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#50	#98
ExplosiveExp	#13	#120
PPAPPA	#20	#116
PowerPwr	#21	#74
SP+SP+	#45	#86
Pts POPPO	#8	#129
HavocHav	#74	#36

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#64	#73
Run ExplRExp	#19	#101
PPAExp	#33	#68
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#112	#11
TackleTak	-	NR

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#44	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#33	#107
PPAExp	#25	#125
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#98	#14
DB HavocDB	#51	#86

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Duke beat NC State last year (45-33)
Duke beat NC State in 2024 (29-19)
Duke beat NC State in 2023 (24-3)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget (Tr)	232	393	59%	3058	17	9	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Sheppard	200	1132	11	5.7	60
CJ Campbell	22	119	0	5.4	22
Walker Eget (Tr)	33	96	0	2.9	13
Travis Bates	9	57	0	6.3	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javen Nicholas (Tr)	60	740	5	12.3	64
Jeremiah Hasley	40	454	6	11.4	56
Nate Sheppard	37	286	1	7.7	20
Nate Kurisky (Tr)	20	157	2	7.9	37

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
DaShawn Stone	86	2	0	1	3
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)	70	1	0	0	3
Landan Callahan	42	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elliott Schaper	16	2	2	0	0
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Kendall Johnson	37	3	1	4	2
Preston Watson	15	3	1	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Flowers (Tr)	33	1	0	0	4
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)	70	1	0	0	3

NCST's OC Kurt Roper (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	273	397	69%	3105	25	9	7.8
Will Wilson	3	5	60%	16	0	1	3.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jayden Scott	106	595	4	5.6	69
Davion Gause (Tr)	61	258	3	4.2	25
CJ Bailey	89	215	6	2.4	30
Will Wilson	43	146	10	3.4	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Victor Snow (Tr)	62	815	8	13.1	75
Davion Dozier (Tr)	20	448	5	22.4	68
Teddy Hoffmann	25	349	3	14.0	55
Keenan Jackson	28	281	2	10.0	33

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC D. J. Eliot (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Asaad Brown Jr.	64	0	0	0	2
King Mack (Tr)	58	1	1	1	3
Ronnie Royal III	49	2	0	0	1
Jackson Vick	45	2	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Harvey Dyson III	31	10	7	0	1
Chase Bond	11	6	2	2	0
Joseph Adedire	6	2	1	0	0
King Mack (Tr)	58	1	1	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Vick	45	2	0	0	6
Brian Nelson II	29	1	0	0	6
King Mack (Tr)	58	1	1	1	3