Troy at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, December 23rd 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Troy -7 (44.0) (250) Open: -7.0 | 44.0
Duke 17 - Troy: 10 (76 Birmingham Bowl)

Trojans (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (13 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 4 (#13)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Troy -1 (SP+ TROY -1)
Projected Score: TROY: 26 - DUKE: 25 (50)
TROY Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
TROY Travel: 129 miles

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
TROY Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Troy's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Troy vs Stephen F. Austin	-26.0	48.0	W 48 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/9	Troy at Kansas State	+15.0	50.0	L 13 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Troy vs James Madison	-2.5	46.5	L 14 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/23	Troy vs Western Kentucky	-3.5	57.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/30	Troy at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Troy vs Arkansas State	-15.5	52.0	W 37 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Troy at Army	-6.5	41.5	W 19 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Troy at Texas State	-6.5	53.0	W 31 - 13	U	Y
Thu 11/2	Troy vs South Alabama	-5.5	44.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Troy at UL Monroe	-23.5	47.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Troy vs Louisiana	-17.5	47.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/25	Troy at Southern Miss	-16.5	48.5	W 35 - 17	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Troy vs App State	-6.5	51.5	W 49 - 23	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Troy's Schedule

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY	.15	40%	23.5	40%	2.93	116	41%	243	3.45	.08	40%	23.9	42%	38%	3.04	49.9	1.5	2.1
DUKE	.24	44%	34.6	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	29.4	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TROY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Offense	14	23.5	23.4	39.7%	3.45	1.5	20	359	116	243	3.3	49%	49%	40%	41%	16%	.15
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	31.3	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TROY Defense	14	23.9	25.9	39.7%	3.04	2.1	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	42%	38%	16%	.08
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	32.2	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Troy	14	30:25	19.5	32%	67%	5.4	49.9	1.5	2.1	5.6	2.9	1	29.7
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Offense	14	49%	40%	35.5	116.1	3.3	21	.07	2.93	73%	11%	0.93
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TROY Defense	14	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.09	72%	10%	0.89
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Offense	14	49%	41%	17.9	28.6	242.6	8.5	13.5	20	15	.29	1.7	31%	29%	.2	5%	1.9
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TROY Defense	14	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.1	1.4	32%	26%	.16	6%	2.1
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3

Troy's Power Ratings
Troy's Power Rating: 5.08 #35
Troy's Offense Rating: 16.62 #64
Troy's Defense Rating: 1.67 #14
2023 Talent Rating: 454.06 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Troy's 2023 Expected Record: 10.00 - 4.00
Troy's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.4 #26
Troy's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #34
Troy's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Troy: 5.08 Duke: 6.87

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Troy: 10.4 Duke: 9.5

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.87 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 620.90 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Troy Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25.9

Troy's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 4 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Troy 26
Duke 25

Projected Total Points: 50

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	12/23	Duke	17	Troy	10	Troy -7	Duke	44.0	Under
2014	09/06	Troy	17	Duke	34	Duke -18	Troy	0
2013	09/28	Duke	38	Troy	31	Duke -10	Troy	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	3	1	0 Overs
Troy	0	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 1	2 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 2	1 - 0

Troy Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Birmingham Bowl	Troy vs Duke	-7.0	44.0	L 10 - 17
2022	Cure Bowl	Troy vs UTSA	-2.0	55.5	W 18 - 12
2018	General Bowl	Troy vs Buffalo	+2.0	50.5	W 42 - 32
2017	Orleans Bowl	Troy vs North Texas	-5.5	61.5	W 50 - 30

Duke Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2023	Birmingham Bowl	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10
2022	Military Bowl	Duke vs UCF	-3.5	63.0	W 30 - 13
2018	Independence Bowl	Duke vs Temple	+3.5	56.5	W 56 - 27
2017	Lane Bowl	Duke vs Northern Illinois	-4.5	48.0	W 36 - 14

(#35) TROY at (#40) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TROY	DUKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#35	#40
SP+SP+	#26	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#13	#61
OffenseOff	#25	#81
DefenseDef	#9	#43
Spec TeamsST	#72	#49
TalentTal	#101	#67
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#69

Troy Injury Report

Duke Injury Report

Troy on Offense


CategoryCat	TROY Off	DUKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#25	#43
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#64	#59
SP+SP+	#34	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Troy Run Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#8	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#117	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

Troy Pass Game


CategoryCat	TROY Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#84	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	TROY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#9
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#48	#14
SP+SP+	#53	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	TROY Def
Run GameRun	#61	#4
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#26

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	TROY Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#21
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#62	#15
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

TROY 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Protective Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Troy 7.0 (44.0)
Duke won vs Troy this year (17-10)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Troy in 2023 (17-10)

TROY's OC Joe Craddock (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gunnar Watson	267	438	61%	3557	27	6	8.1
Will Crowder (Tr)	9	13	69%	94	1	0	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kimani Vidal	296	1662	14	5.6	69
Damien Taylor	67	346	1	5.2	45
Asa Martin (Tr)	25	114	0	4.6	16
Jarris Williams	14	69	1	4.9	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jabre Barber	74	994	5	13.4	52
Chris Lewis (Tr)	32	734	10	22.9	64
Deshon Stoudemire	43	563	1	13.1	51
Devonte Ross	40	428	3	10.7	38

View Troy's Full Roster

TROY's DC Greg Gasparato (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald	75	10	2	2	1
Dell Pettus	73	4	1	0	4
Jordan Stringer	68	5	1	3	0
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Javon Solomon	54	17	16	5	0
Richard Jibunor	59	19	11	4	0
T.J. Jackson	27	8	4	2	2
Malaki Pegues	9	3	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Reddy Steward	50	4	1	10
Don Callis	26	1	1	4
Irshaad Davis	66	2	0	4

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	95	165	58%	1102	3	3	6.7
Grayson Loftis	91	163	56%	1006	8	4	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Waters	153	819	12	5.4	83
Jaquez Moore	116	674	6	5.8	58
Riley Leonard	58	352	4	6.1	44
Jaylen Coleman	46	165	1	3.6	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	62	835	8	13.5	49
Jalon Calhoun	50	666	4	13.3	69
Sahmir Hagans	30	260	0	8.7	23
Nicky Dalmolin	15	147	0	9.8	21

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Freeman	95	5	2	6	3
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6
Nick Morris Jr.	57	2	1	0	0
Dorian Mausi	56	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aeneas Peebles	42	9	5	4	2
R.J. Oben	15	6	5	5	1
Terry Moore	42	4	3	2	2
Brandon Johnson	49	8	2	3	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)	43	1	0	1	9
Chandler Rivers	47	3	0	1	7
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6