Duke at Virginia - 2026 Matchup Preview

Friday, October 23rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Scott Stadium - Charlottesville, VA

Blue Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#41)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Virginia -6.5 (SP+ UVA -5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 26 - UVA: 32 (58)
UVA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
DUKE Travel: 143 miles

Cavaliers (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (22 - 26)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.5 - 3.5 (#15)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Duke vs Tulane	-9
Sat 9/12	Duke at Illinois	+9
Sat 9/19	Duke vs Stanford	-11.5
Sat 9/26	Duke vs William & Mary	-28
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Duke at Georgia Tech	+5
Sat 10/17	Duke vs North Carolina	-8
Fri 10/23	Duke at Virginia	+6.5
Sat 10/31	Duke vs Boston College	-11.5
Fri 11/6	Duke at NC State	+5.5
Sat 11/14	Duke at Miami	+21.5
Sat 11/21	Duke vs Clemson	+2
Sat 11/28	Duke at Wake Forest	+4.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Virginia's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Virginia vs NC State	-3.5
Sat 9/12	Virginia vs Norfolk State	-32
Sat 9/19	Virginia at West Virginia	-8
Sat 9/26	Virginia vs Delaware	-24.5
Sat 10/3	Virginia at Florida State	+2
Sat 10/10	Virginia vs Syracuse	-18.5
Sat 10/17	Virginia at SMU	+6
Fri 10/23	Virginia vs Duke	-6.5
Sat 10/31	Virginia at Wake Forest	+0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/14	Virginia vs California	-10.5
Sat 11/21	Virginia vs North Carolina	-12
Sat 11/28	Virginia at Virginia Tech	-8

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#25 (.25)	46% (30)	34.6	45% (51)	2.8 (99)	138	47% (20)	285	4.32 (26)	#116 (.23)	44% (98)	29.4	43% (73)	46% (119)	4.39 (129)	62.7	1	1.7
UVA	#64 (.18)	42% (82)	30.8	44% (63)	3.04 (53)	180	41% (79)	239	3.56 (82)	#17 (.06)	37% (20)	19.6	39% (30)	37% (22)	3.01 (17)	44.1	1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	14	34.6	37	46%	4.32	1	23	424	138	285	4.3	44%	55%	45%	47%	15%	.25
UVA Defense	14	19.6	17.7	37.4%	3.01	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	39%	37%	18%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	14	29.4	27.5	43.8%	4.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	46%	17%	.23
UVA Offense	14	30.8	36.4	41.6%	3.56	1	22	419	180	239	4.6	50%	49%	44%	41%	14%	.18

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	14	29:43	22.5	39%	74%	6.4	62.7	1	1.7	6.7	1.9	3	31.3
Virginia	14	32:16	21.6	50%	47%	5.3	44.1	1	1.4	4.8	2.1	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	14	44% (112)	45% (51)	32.4	138.2	4.3	26 (60)	.08 (85)	2.8 (99)	69% (85)	10% (79)	0.97 (65)
UVA Defense	14	51% (77)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	.04 (33)	2.75 (42)	71% (70)	9% (77)	0.92 (46)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	14	48% (49)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.1 (68)	2.62 (19)	73% (85)	12% (14)	1.03 (101)
UVA Offense	14	50% (66)	44% (63)	38.9	179.9	4.6	29 (11)	.19 (30)	3.04 (53)	81% (11)	8% (23)	1.06 (31)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	14	55% (21)	47% (20)	24	36.1	285.4	7.9	11.9	34 (14)	6 (7)	.39 (24)	1.6 (44)	30% (39)	33% (37)	.4 (30)	6% (55)	2.2 (13)
UVA Defense	14	47% (53)	37% (22)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (38)	.15 (24)	1.5 (44)	32% (59)	23% (3)	.11 (8)	9% (5)	1.9 (25)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	14	50% (86)	46% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (22)	.41 (125)	1.6 (107)	32% (56)	34% (123)	.44 (128)	6% (86)	2 (77)
UVA Offense	14	49% (71)	41% (79)	22.5	35.1	239.1	6.8	10.6	18 (50)	10 (60)	.24 (76)	1.5 (73)	32% (85)	33% (34)	.36 (46)	6% (65)	1.9 (114)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 1.91 #57
Duke's Offense Rating: 15.11 #32
Duke's Defense Rating: 18.20 #74
2026 Talent Rating: 762.00 #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #54
Duke's 2026 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 1.91 Virginia: 10.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.6 Virginia: 11.1

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 10.9 #39
Virginia's Offense Rating: 11.32 #64
Virginia's Defense Rating: 10.62 #29
2026 Talent Rating: 820.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Virginia's 2026 Expected Record: 10.5 - 3.5
Virginia's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 11.1 #31
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #56
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.1 #19

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 854.47
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 32
Duke 26

Projected Total Points: 58

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/06	Virginia	20	Duke	27	Virginia -3.5	Duke	58.5	Under
2025	11/15	Duke	17	Virginia	34	Duke -5.5	Virginia	59.5	Under
2023	11/18	Virginia	30	Duke	27	Duke -4	Virginia	48.5	Over
2022	10/01	Duke	38	Virginia	17	Duke -2	Duke	55.0	Push
2021	10/16	Virginia	48	Duke	0	Virginia -10.5	Virginia	69.5	Under
2020	09/26	Virginia	38	Duke	20	Virginia -3.5	Virginia	44.5	Over
2019	10/19	Virginia	48	Duke	14	Virginia -3.5	Virginia	45.0	Over
2018	10/20	Duke	14	Virginia	28	Duke -6.5	Virginia	45.5	Under
2017	10/07	Virginia	28	Duke	21	Duke -1.5	Virginia	53.0	Under
2016	10/01	Duke	20	Virginia	34	Duke -5	Virginia	60.5	Under
2015	11/21	Virginia	42	Duke	34	Virginia -2.5	Virginia	53.5	Over
2014	10/18	Duke	20	Virginia	13	Duke -5	Duke	0
2013	10/19	Virginia	22	Duke	35	Virginia -4	Duke	0
2012	10/06	Duke	42	Virginia	17
2011	11/12	Virginia	31	Duke	21
2010	11/06	Duke	55	Virginia	48
2009	10/31	Virginia	17	Duke	28
2008	09/27	Duke	31	Virginia	3
2007	09/08	Virginia	24	Duke	13
2006	09/30	Duke	0	Virginia	37
2005	09/24	Virginia	38	Duke	7
2004	10/23	Duke	16	Virginia	37
2003	08/30	Virginia	27	Duke	0
2002	10/05	Duke	22	Virginia	27
2001	09/29	Virginia	31	Duke	10
2000	09/15	Duke	10	Virginia	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	18	9	4 Overs
Duke	8	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 10	8 - 5	6 - 5	2 - 0
Road Teams	10 - 16	5 - 8	0 - 2	5 - 6

(#57) DUKE at (#39) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#57	#39
SP+SP+	#44	#31
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#62	#47
Blue ChipsBC%	#54	#65

Duke Injury Report

Virginia Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#30	#20
ExplosiveExp	#30	#35
PPAPPA	#25	#17
PowerPwr	#32	#29
SP+SP+	#19	#19
Pts POPPO	#26	#17
HavocHav	#67	#23

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#30
Run ExplRExp	#65	#46
PPAExp	#85	#33
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#42
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#68
TackleTak	-	NR

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#22
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#44
PPAExp	#24	#24
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#79	#77
DB HavocDB	#55	#5

Virginia on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#82	#98
ExplosiveExp	#43	#120
PPAPPA	#64	#116
PowerPwr	#64	#74
SP+SP+	#56	#86
Pts POPPO	#82	#129
HavocHav	#39	#36

Virginia Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#63	#73
Run ExplRExp	#31	#101
PPAExp	#30	#68
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#53	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#32	#11
TackleTak	-	NR

Virginia Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#79	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#73	#107
PPAExp	#76	#125
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#23	#14
DB HavocDB	#65	#86

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Duke last year (34-17)
Virginia beat Duke in 2023 (30-27)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget (Tr)	232	393	59%	3058	17	9	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Sheppard	200	1132	11	5.7	60
CJ Campbell	22	119	0	5.4	22
Walker Eget (Tr)	33	96	0	2.9	13
Travis Bates	9	57	0	6.3	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Javen Nicholas (Tr)	60	740	5	12.3	64
Jeremiah Hasley	40	454	6	11.4	56
Nate Sheppard	37	286	1	7.7	20
Nate Kurisky (Tr)	20	157	2	7.9	37

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
DaShawn Stone	86	2	0	1	3
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)	70	1	0	0	3
Landan Callahan	42	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elliott Schaper	16	2	2	0	0
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Kendall Johnson	37	3	1	4	2
Preston Watson	15	3	1	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Flowers (Tr)	33	1	0	0	4
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)	70	1	0	0	3

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Beau Pribula (Tr)	182	270	67%	1946	11	9	7.2
Eli Holstein (Tr)	77	125	62%	1081	12	6	8.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)	140	752	4	5.4	72
Solomon Beebe (Tr)	56	338	6	6.0	81
Beau Pribula (Tr)	95	297	6	3.1	49
Peyton Lewis (Tr)	70	290	7	4.1	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jacquon Gibson (Tr)	63	616	0	9.8	50
Jahmal Edrine	46	564	1	12.3	37
Jekail Middlebrook (Tr)	40	412	3	10.3	48
Tyson Davis (Tr)	25	323	2	12.9	36

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Jones (Tr)	66	5	0	1
Jalen McNair (Tr)	50	2	1	4
Brandyn Hillman (Tr)	49	3	0	3
Landon Danley	48	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zion Wilson (Tr)	42	10	6	4	1
Nnanna Anyanwu (Tr)	21	7	5	4	1
Fisher Camac	44	6	4	2	4
Jason Hammond	33	3	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fisher Camac	44	6	4	2	4
Jalen McNair (Tr)	50	2	0	1	4
Justin Ross (Tr)	32	2	1	3	4