Northwestern at Duke - 2021 Matchup Preview

Northwestern Wildcats at Duke Blue Devils

Saturday, September 18th 2021 (4:00 PM EDT)
Northwestern -2.5 (50.0)
Duke 30 - Northwestern: 23

Wildcats (3 - 9) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Pat Fitzgerald (107 - 83)
Avg Score : 17 - 29 (12 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: -1.5 (SP+ NW -2.5)
Projected Score: NW: 24 - DUKE: 24 (48)
NW Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
NW Travel: 629 miles, 1 hrs behind

Blue Devils (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Cutcliffe (76 - 89)
Avg Score : 23 - 40 (31 - 38 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NW Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Northwestern vs Michigan State	-3.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/11	Northwestern vs Indiana State	-28.5	46.0	W 24 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/18	Northwestern at Duke	-2.5	50.0	L 23 - 30	O	N
Sat 9/25	Northwestern vs Ohio	-13.5	47.5	W 35 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/2	Northwestern at Nebraska	+11.0	51.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/16	Northwestern vs Rutgers	+2.5	45.0	W 21 - 7	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Northwestern at Michigan	+23.5	51.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/30	Northwestern vs Minnesota	+7.5	43.5	L 14 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/6	Northwestern vs Iowa	+11.5	40.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Northwestern at Wisconsin	+26.0	41.5	L 7 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/20	Northwestern vs Purdue	+11.0	47.5	L 14 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/27	Northwestern at Illinois	+7.0	45.0	L 14 - 47	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule

Duke's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Duke at Charlotte	-6.0	60.0	L 28 - 31	U	N
Fri 9/10	Duke vs North Carolina A&T	-22.5	55.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	50.0	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Duke vs Kansas	-16.5	57.5	W 52 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Duke at North Carolina	+19.5	74.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/9	Duke vs Georgia Tech	+4.5	60.5	L 27 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Duke at Virginia	+10.5	69.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Duke at Wake Forest	+16.5	71.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Duke vs Pittsburgh	+21.0	64.5	L 29 - 54	O	N
Sat 11/13	Duke at Virginia Tech	+13.5	50.5	L 17 - 48	O	N
Thu 11/18	Duke vs Louisville	+20.0	60.0	L 22 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/27	Duke vs Miami	+20.5	67.0	L 10 - 47	U	N

Important Stats (2021)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	.12	38%	16.6	43%	2.83	145	34%	177	2.97	.3	47%	29	48%	45%	4.28	41.9	1.8	1.5
DUKE	.18	43%	22.8	43%	3.15	180	43%	238	3.07	.38	47%	39.8	48%	47%	4.77	61.7	1.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NW	#129 (.02)	37% (123)		39% (113)	2.63 (124)	99	36% (116)	186	3.02 (127)	#57 (.15)	45% (106)		44% (80)	46% (117)	3.74 (64)	38.8	1.5	1.3
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Overall Stats 2021

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Offense	12	16.6	11.6	38.3%	2.97	1.8	17	322	145	177	3.9	51%	48%	43%	34%	20%	.12
DUKE Defense	12	39.8	38.1	46.7%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	48%	47%	16%	.38

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NW Defense	12	29	40.2	46.6%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	48%	45%	12%	.3
DUKE Offense	12	22.8	30.7	42.8%	3.07	1.8	22	418	180	238	4.1	53%	46%	43%	43%	16%	.18

Additional Stats 2021

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Northwestern	12	28:10	17.3	36%	50%	4.7	41.9	1.8	1.5	4	1.6	0	26.7
Duke	12	29:18	21.8	42%	38%	6.5	61.7	1.8	1.2	5	1.8	2	28.6

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Offense	12	51%	43%	37.7	145	3.9	12	.12	2.83	77%	12%	0.96
DUKE Defense	12	49%	48%	-	-	-	-	.25	3.28	78%	10%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NW Defense	12	53%	48%	-	-	-	-	.35	3.49	75%	8%	1.17
DUKE Offense	12	53%	43%	43.7	180.3	4.1	22	.13	3.15	76%	11%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Offense	12	48%	34%	17.3	30.4	177.3	5.8	10.2	13	14	.14	1.5	33%	24%	.16	7%	2
DUKE Defense	12	49%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.56	1.9	33%	40%	.64	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NW Defense	12	47%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.23	1.3	29%	35%	.42	4%	1.9
DUKE Offense	12	46%	43%	22.1	34.2	237.9	7	10.8	9	9	.28	1.5	32%	29%	.25	5%	1.8

Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: NR
Northwestern's Offense Rating: NR
Northwestern's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Northwestern's 2021 Expected Record: -
Northwestern's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.1 #107
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.4 #119
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3 #72

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: Duke: -4.25

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Northwestern: -11.1 Duke: -13.5

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: -4.25 NR
Duke's Offense Rating: NR
Duke's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Duke's 2021 Expected Record: -
Duke's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #114
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #97
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #119

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 16.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 29 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.2

Northwestern's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Northwestern 24
Duke 24

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Northwestern 23
Duke 17

Total Points: 40

Based on Entire Season
Duke 31
Northwestern 26

Total Points: 57

Duke Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 39.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 38.1

Duke's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/06	Northwestern	20	Duke	26	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	37.5	Over
2023	09/16	Duke	38	Northwestern	14	Duke -17	Duke	48.0	Over
2022	09/10	Northwestern	23	Duke	31	Northwestern -10	Duke	56.5	Under
2021	09/18	Duke	30	Northwestern	23	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	50.0	Over
2018	09/08	Northwestern	7	Duke	21	Northwestern -2.5	Duke	47.5	Under
2017	09/09	Duke	41	Northwestern	17	Northwestern -1.5	Duke	54.5	Over
2016	09/17	Northwestern	24	Duke	13	Northwestern -4	Northwestern	44.0	Under
2015	09/19	Duke	10	Northwestern	19	Duke -2.5	Northwestern	50.0	Under
2008	09/06	Duke	20	Northwestern	24
2007	09/15	Northwestern	14	Duke	20
2003	09/20	Duke	10	Northwestern	28
2002	09/14	Northwestern	26	Duke	21
2001	09/22	Duke	7	Northwestern	44
2000	09/08	Northwestern	38	Duke	5

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	7	6	4 Overs
Northwestern	7	2	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 8	4 - 4	2 - 4	2 - 0
Road Teams	8 - 6	4 - 4	0 - 2	4 - 2

(#) NW at (#) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NW	DUKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#107	#114
Perf GradeGrade	#122	#117
OffenseOff	#122	#96
DefenseDef	#112	#124
Spec TeamsST	#47	#24
TalentTal	#44	#60
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Northwestern Injury Report

Duke Injury Report

Northwestern on Offense


CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#122	#124
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#119
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Northwestern Run Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#73	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#57	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

Northwestern Pass Game


CategoryCat	NW Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#133	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#69	#113
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#112
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#97	#72
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
Run GameRun	#115	#120
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#69	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#78

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NW Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#74	#119
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

NW 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 85° - Wind: 8 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Northwestern 2.5 (50.0)
Duke won vs Northwestern this year (30-23)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Northwestern last year (26-20)
Duke beat Northwestern in 2023 (38-14)
Duke beat Northwestern in 2022 (31-23)

NW's OC Mike Bajakian (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Jim O'Neil (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

DUKE's OC Re'Quan Boyette (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Ben Albert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD