UConn at Duke - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (6:00 PM EDT)
Duke -17.5 (46.5) (-800) Open: -16.5 | 47.5
Duke 26 - UConn: 21

Huskies (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Jim L. Mora (9 - 16)
Avg Score : 32 - 23 (26 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Duke -8 (SP+ DUKE -4)
Projected Score: CONN: 21 - DUKE: 29 (53)
DUKE Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
CONN Travel: 523 miles

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CONN Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

UConn's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UConn at Maryland	+19.0	45.5	L 7 - 50	O	N
Sat 9/7	UConn vs Merrimack	-14.5	44.5	W 63 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/14	UConn at Duke	+17.5	46.5	L 21 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/21	UConn vs Florida Atlantic	-1.0	46.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/28	UConn vs Buffalo	-6.0	44.5	W 47 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/5	UConn vs Temple	-17.5	49.0	W 29 - 20	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	UConn vs Wake Forest	+2.5	55.5	L 20 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	UConn vs Rice	-6.5	47.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/1	UConn vs Georgia State	-7.0	48.0	W 34 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/9	UConn at UAB	-7.5	54.0	W 31 - 23	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	UConn at Syracuse	+10.0	53.0	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/30	UConn at Massachusetts	-9.5	49.5	W 47 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	UConn vs North Carolina	+2.0	53.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UConn's Schedule

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CONN	#111 (.11)	40% (96)	31.9	43% (68)	2.76 (120)	137	37% (108)	190	3.29 (106)	#99 (.23)	47% (124)	23.1	45% (89)	49% (133)	3.88 (75)	53.8	1.4	1.1
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	26.3	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	24.5	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CONN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CONN Offense	12	31.9	26	39.8%	3.29	1.4	18	327	137	190	4.2	51%	48%	43%	37%	16%	.11
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	19.3	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CONN Defense	12	23.1	34.4	46.6%	3.88	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	45%	49%	16%	.23
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	25.7	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
UConn	12	31:15	18.1	35%	38%	6.1	53.8	1.4	1.1	5.7	1.3	1	27.5
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CONN Offense	12	51% (54)	43% (68)	32.8	136.6	4.2	15 (100)	.01 (125)	2.76 (120)	77% (41)	11% (93)	0.9 (112)
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CONN Defense	12	51% (77)	45% (89)	-	-	-	-	.11 (48)	2.9 (34)	79% (103)	11% (45)	0.98 (59)
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CONN Offense	12	48% (79)	37% (108)	18.3	31.8	190.3	6	10.4	12 (113)	7 (21)	.25 (78)	1.6 (51)	35% (112)	28% (90)	.23 (98)	5% (33)	1.8 (122)
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CONN Defense	12	49% (61)	49% (133)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (120)	.4 (118)	1.4 (17)	30% (113)	33% (112)	.35 (86)	5% (110)	1.8 (8)
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)

UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: -4.45 #80
UConn's Offense Rating: 17.51 #89
UConn's Defense Rating: 6.05 #36
2024 Talent Rating: 468.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
UConn's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
UConn's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #67
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #70
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #60

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 714
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
UConn: -4.45 Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UConn: 1.5 Duke: 5.6

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

UConn Scoring
Offense: 31.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 26
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

UConn's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 29
UConn 21

Projected Total Points: 53

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Duke	26	UConn	21	Duke	Duke -17.5	UConn	46.5	Over
2023	09/23	UConn	7	Duke	41	Duke	Duke -22	Duke	45.0	Over
2007	09/01	Duke	14	UConn	45	UConn
2004	09/11	UConn	22	Duke	20	UConn

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	2	1	2 Overs
UConn	2	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#80) UConn Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.45 #80
Offense Rating: 17.51 #89
Defense Rating: 6.05 #36
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #67
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #70
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #60
Talent Rating: 468.00 #107
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.09 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Bad Pass Success 40%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Good in Scoring Position 3.36 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

UConn Notes
(11/3) Rgame 272, 6.5 ypc in W (Ga St). Bowl eligible
(10/28) Sched light, but Def in top 20 in most categories
(10/28) Final 3 games on road, but could win 3/4 for 8 W's
(10/18) QB Fagnano or Evers, doesn't really matter
(10/4) Off lights out, Rgame nearly 250 ypg. Who's QB?
(8/11) Won't leave home weeks 4 - 10
(8/3) Mora grabbed a lot of P5 talent via portal
(7/30) Should improve from 3 W's LY, fringe bowl?
(7/30) QB Fagano back (inj). Add Ewers (bust @ OU/Wisc)
(7/30) Portals really good from bigger schools, good WR

UConn Ratings Matchup Duke

Power #80

#50

Off #89

#113

Def #36

#17

Talent #107

#56

SP+ #67

#44

SP+ Off #70

#71

SP+ Def #60

#31

Rematch from Week 3
Duke -17.5 (46.5)
Duke won vs UConn this year (26-21)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat UConn last year (26-21)
Duke beat UConn in 2023 (41-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 77° - Wind: 8 mph

Team Information
Injuries: CONN | DUKE
Depth Chart: CONN | DUKE
Rosters: CONN | DUKE

(#50) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see

UConn's OC Gordon Sammis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Nick Evers (Tr)	97	180	54%	918	5	5	5.1
Tucker McDonald	3	5	60%	20	0	0	4.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam Edwards	146	830	8	5.7	71
Durell Robinson (Tr)	107	731	8	6.8	68
Jayden Brown	98	578	2	5.9	52
Nick Evers (Tr)	80	245	3	3.1	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Skyler Bell (Tr)	50	860	5	17.2	70
TJ Sheffield (Tr)	54	505	3	9.4	58
Jasaiah Gathings (Tr)	32	307	3	9.6	26
Louis Hansen	24	236	4	9.8	55

View UConn's Full Roster

UConn's DC Matt Brock

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden McDonald (Tr)	125	10	4	8	3
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Rante Jones	56	2	0	3	2
D'Mon Brinson	48	4	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Jayden McDonald (Tr)	125	10	4	8	3
Pryce Yates	21	7	4	5	1
Langston Hardy	44	7	4	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tui Faumuina-Brown	91	11	5	7	6
Cam Chadwick	47	1	0	1	6
D'Mon Brinson	48	4	0	0	4

Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65
Star Thomas (Tr)	20	153	1	7.7	29
Javon Harvey (Tr)	11	101	1	9.2	16

View Duke's Full Roster

Duke's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5
Tre Freeman	67	4	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3
Aaron Hall	43	9	4	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5
Kimari Robinson	23	5	0	1	4