Duke at Syracuse - 2025 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Duke -4 (59.5) (-192) Open: -6.5
Duke 38 - Syracuse: 3 (ACC)

Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)

SYR is playing their 5th straight game
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Duke -18.5 (SP+ DUKE -19.5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 39 - SYR: 20 (59)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 509 miles

Orange (3 - 9) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Fran Brown (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 20 - 35 (22 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
SYR Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/28	Duke vs Elon	-36.5	51.5	W 45 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/6	Duke vs Illinois	+2.5	49.0	L 19 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/13	Duke at Tulane	+1.5	52.5	L 27 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/20	Duke vs NC State	-3.0	57.5	W 45 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Duke at Syracuse	-4.0	59.5	W 38 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/4	Duke at California	-3.5	54.5	W 45 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Duke vs Georgia Tech	-3.5	60.5	L 18 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1	Duke at Clemson	+4.5	55.5	W 46 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/8	Duke at UConn	-7.5	63.5	L 34 - 37	O	N
Sat 11/15	Duke vs Virginia	-5.5	59.5	L 17 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/22	Duke at North Carolina	-6.5	50.5	W 32 - 25	O	Y
Sat 11/29	Duke vs Wake Forest	-2.5	54.0	W 49 - 32	O	Y
Sat 12/6	Duke vs Virginia	+3.5	58.5	W 27 - 20	U	Y
Wed 12/31	Duke vs Arizona State	-4.0	49.5	W 42 - 39	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/30	Syracuse vs Tennessee	+13.5	53.5	L 26 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/6	Syracuse vs UConn	-7.0	57.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Fri 9/12	Syracuse vs Colgate	-37.5	64.5	W 66 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/20	Syracuse at Clemson	+17.5	53.5	W 34 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/27	Syracuse vs Duke	+4.0	59.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/4	Syracuse at SMU	+17.5	56.5	L 18 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18	Syracuse vs Pittsburgh	+9.5	54.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/25	Syracuse at Georgia Tech	+17.5	52.5	L 16 - 41	O	N
Fri 10/31	Syracuse vs North Carolina	-1.5	45.5	L 10 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/8	Syracuse at Miami	+28.5	47.5	L 10 - 38	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22	Syracuse at Notre Dame	+36.5	51.5	L 7 - 70	O	N
Sat 11/29	Syracuse vs Boston College	+2.5	54.5	L 12 - 34	U	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Syracuse's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)	34.6	35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)	29.4	41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2
SYR	#28 (.25)	48% (14)	20.2	45% (57)	2.88 (98)	87	50% (5)	335	4.23 (38)	#107 (.23)	43% (91)	34.9	42% (58)	45% (114)	4.29 (112)	55.3	1.2	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SYR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	37	38.6%	3.7	1.4	16	315	89	226	3.3	44%	56%	35%	42%	19%	.12
SYR Defense	13	34.9	28.8	43.5%	4.29	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	42%	45%	17%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	27.5	37.6%	3.19	2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	34%	23%	.06
SYR Offense	13	20.2	21.8	48.1%	4.23	1.2	24	422	87	335	3.1	37%	62%	45%	50%	16%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	25:05	16.3	29%	38%	5.1	48.9	1.4	2	8.5	3.2	1	31.2
Syracuse	13	31:06	23.8	50%	67%	6.5	55.3	1.2	1.1	5	2	1	29

Run Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	44% (110)	35% (129)	27.5	89.2	3.3	13 (105)	-.07 (133)	2.47 (131)	78% (32)	10% (78)	0.74 (131)
SYR Defense	13	46% (23)	42% (58)	-	-	-	-	.12 (71)	3.05 (77)	82% (119)	10% (54)	1.1 (115)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	52% (81)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.06 (35)	2.74 (28)	59% (6)	15% (2)	0.91 (38)
SYR Offense	13	37% (130)	45% (57)	28.3	87.1	3.1	20 (67)	.07 (98)	2.88 (98)	78% (30)	8% (30)	0.81 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2025)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	56% (24)	42% (69)	19.6	32.5	226.1	7	11.5	26 (26)	12 (85)	.28 (55)	1.6 (56)	32% (73)	29% (98)	.3 (82)	9% (129)	2 (78)
SYR Defense	13	53% (111)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (76)	.35 (113)	1.5 (26)	31% (87)	33% (101)	.43 (113)	7% (44)	2.1 (76)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	48% (53)	34% (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.06 (7)	1.5 (39)	34% (35)	29% (41)	.27 (53)	7% (28)	2.1 (69)
SYR Offense	13	62% (5)	50% (5)	28.4	43.4	335.2	7.7	11.8	29 (12)	12 (85)	.37 (18)	1.5 (89)	31% (58)	38% (4)	.34 (70)	8% (117)	2 (83)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.18 #42
Duke's Offense Rating: 21.58 #23
Duke's Defense Rating: 12.40 #58
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.18 Syracuse: -10.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.6 Syracuse: -13.1

Syracuse's Power Ratings
Syracuse's Power Rating: -10.385 #113
Syracuse's Offense Rating: 1.25 #132
Syracuse's Defense Rating: 13.92 #70
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00 #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #49
Syracuse's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Syracuse's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.1 #115
Syracuse's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.8 #115
Syracuse's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.0 #106

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 39
Syracuse 20

Projected Total Points: 59

Syracuse Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.8
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

Syracuse's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Syracuse	3	Duke	38	Duke -4	Duke	59.5	Under
2020	10/10	Syracuse	24	Duke	38	Duke -2.5	Duke	53.5	Over
2019	11/16	Duke	6	Syracuse	49	Duke -9	Syracuse	49.5	Over
2014	11/08	Syracuse	10	Duke	27	Duke -4	Duke	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Syracuse	1	1	2 Overs
Duke	3	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 4	0 - 4	0 - 1	0 - 3
Road Teams	4 - 0	4 - 0	3 - 0	1 - 0

(#42) DUKE at (#113) SYR

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	SYR
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#42	#113
SP+SP+	#44	#115
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#132
OffenseOff	#16	#129
DefenseDef	#99	#127
Spec TeamsST	#40	#114
TalentTal	#48	#43
Blue ChipsBC%	#54	#49

Duke Notes(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report

Syracuse Notes(10/31) QB1 will be Joseph Filardi, a freshman w/ 1 snap
(10/31) QB Filardi cannot play at all. Cuse have 0 QBs
(10/24) Backup QB Collins bad, Fr Carney can't run offense
(9/21) QB1 Angeli out for season (Achilles)
(9/20) Off torched Clemson, Def played well. Huge Win
(9/20) Can't say enough about HC Brown, great job
(8/30) Def torched by Vols, Angeli Ok, run game bad
(8/18) QB1 Steve Angeli (ND) wins starting job
(5/23) Cuse were 7-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/7) OL 2/5 back, Avg LY. 2 more have exp, Petry inj
(4/17) Fr OL Washington is 6'7, 380 lbs and can move.
(4/17) Top WR Pena in portal, big loss. Some depth
Syracuse Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	SYR Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#16	#127
SuccessSuc	#116	#91
ExplosiveExp	#84	#90
PPAPPA	#109	#107
PowerPwr	#23	#70
SP+SP+	#19	#106
Pts POPPO	#90	#112
HavocHav	#115	#52

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	SYR Def
Run GameRun	#36	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#58
Run ExplRExp	#131	#115
PPAExp	#133	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#36	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#77
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#74
TackleTak	-	#60

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	SYR Def
Pass GamePass	#13	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#114
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#26
PPAExp	#55	#113
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#24	#99
F7 HavocF7	#78	#54
DB HavocDB	#129	#44

Syracuse on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SYR Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#129	#99
SuccessSuc	#14	#16
ExplosiveExp	#68	#22
PPAPPA	#28	#10
PowerPwr	#132	#58
SP+SP+	#115	#86
Pts POPPO	#38	#17
HavocHav	#61	#2

Syracuse Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SYR Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#115	#62
Run SuccessRSuc	#57	#51
Run ExplRExp	#128	#38
PPAExp	#98	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	#98	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#68	#16
TackleTak	-	#89

Syracuse Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SYR Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#128	#105
Pass SuccessPSuc	#5	#5
Pass ExplPExl	#89	#39
PPAExp	#18	#7
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#119	#68
F7 HavocF7	#30	#2
DB HavocDB	#117	#28

Program Comparison
SYR 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carrier Dome
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Duke 4.0 (59.5)
Duke won at Syracuse this year (38-3)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Syracuse last year (38-3)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)	334	500	67%	3973	34	6	7.9
Henry Belin IV	2	5	40%	22	0	0	4.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Sheppard	200	1132	11	5.7	60
Anderson Castle (Tr)	115	488	12	4.2	66
Jaquez Moore	41	201	1	4.9	32
Travis Bates	9	57	0	6.3	39

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)	72	1106	7	15.4	77
Que'Sean Brown	63	842	5	13.4	69
Sahmir Hagans	44	512	6	11.6	35
Jeremiah Hasley	40	454	6	11.4	56

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Caleb Weaver (Tr)	89	6	2	0	1
DaShawn Stone	86	2	0	1	3
Jaiden Francois (Tr)	73	8	1	2	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Vincent Anthony	34	13	7	4	2
Josiah Green (Tr)	38	7	4	2	3
Aaron Hall	44	11	3	4	0
Wesley Williams	43	8	2	16	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Rivers	59	4	0	1	8
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
DaShawn Stone	86	2	0	1	3

SYR's OC Jeff Nixon (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Rickie Collins (Tr)	97	181	54%	1042	6	10	5.8
Steven Angeli	97	155	63%	1317	10	2	8.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Yasin Willis	129	553	4	4.3	41
Will Nixon	107	432	3	4.0	28
Tylik Hill	24	129	0	5.4	15
Rickie Collins (Tr)	54	126	1	2.3	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Johntay Cook II (Tr)	47	559	2	11.9	59
Darrell Gill Jr.	32	506	5	15.8	43
Dan Villari	39	412	0	10.6	35
Justus Ross-Simmons	20	312	5	15.6	53

View Syracuse's Full Roster

SYR's DC Elijah Robinson (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gary Bryant III (Tr)	53	5	1	1	0
Antoine Deslauriers	48	3	1	0	2
Braheem Long Jr.	42	2	2	0	2
Chris Peal (Tr)	39	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kevin Jobity Jr.	20	6	5	0	1
Jamie Tremble	10	3	3	2	0
Braheem Long Jr.	42	2	2	0	2
Denis Jaquez Jr.	19	5	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Chris Peal (Tr)	39	2	7
Demetres Samuel Jr.	37	1	7
Darian Chestnut	35	0	3