Duke at Syracuse - 2025 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at Syracuse OrangeSyracuse logo
Saturday, September 27th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Duke -4 (59.5) (-192)  Open: -6.5
Duke 38 - Syracuse: 3  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
Game in Dome
SYR is playing their 5th straight game
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Duke -19  (SP+ DUKE -19)

Projected Score: DUKE: 40 - SYR: 21 (61)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 509 miles
Orange (3 - 9) (4 - 7 - 1)
Coach Fran Brown (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 20 - 35 (22 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#117)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Syracuse's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Syracuse vs Tennessee+13.553.5L 26 - 45ON
Sat 9/6 Syracuse vs UConn-7.057.5W 27 - 20UN
Fri 9/12 Syracuse vs Colgate-37.564.5W 66 - 24OY
Sat 9/20 Syracuse at Clemson+17.553.5W 34 - 21OY
Sat 9/27 Syracuse vs Duke+4.059.5L 3 - 38UN
Sat 10/4 Syracuse at SMU+17.556.5L 18 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Syracuse vs Pittsburgh+9.554.5L 13 - 30UN
Sat 10/25 Syracuse at Georgia Tech+17.552.5L 16 - 41ON
Fri 10/31 Syracuse vs North Carolina-1.545.5L 10 - 27UN
Sat 11/8 Syracuse at Miami+28.547.5L 10 - 38OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 Syracuse at Notre Dame+36.551.5L 7 - 70ON
Sat 11/29 Syracuse vs Boston College+2.554.5L 12 - 34UN

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Syracuse's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#26 (.25)46% (32)34.644% (61)2.77 (105)12347% (22)2624.28 (28)#120 (.25)44% (99)29.443% (80)46% (116)4.45 (129)58.40.91.5
SYR#127 (.03)38% (119)20.241% (95)2.61 (125)12335% (125)2172.98 (123)#128 (.28)45% (119)34.945% (99)46% (120)4.15 (113)54.91.90.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
SYR#28 (.25)48% (14)45% (57)2.88 (98)8750% (5)3354.23 (38)#107 (.23)43% (91)42% (58)45% (114)4.29 (112)55.31.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1434.63745.6%4.280.9213851232624.145%54%44%47%15%.25
SYR Defense1234.928.845.4%4.150.8 - - - - - 47%52%45%46%13%.28
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1429.427.543.9%4.451.5 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%18%.25
SYR Offense1220.221.837.7%2.981.9193401232173.447%52%41%35%19%.03

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1427:2020.839%76%658.40.91.56.31.9331
Syracuse1230:2819.435%47%6.254.91.90.84.81.6027.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1445% (109)44% (61)29.9123.14.124 (60).07 (93)2.77 (105)70% (83)10% (89)0.96 (67)
SYR Defense1247% (32)45% (99) - - - - .11 (77)2.92 (77)64% (24)8% (111)1.04 (107)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1448% (48)43% (80) - - - - .12 (86)2.73 (36)76% (104)12% (15)1.03 (100)
SYR Offense1247% (90)41% (95)36.2123.13.412 (88) (121)2.61 (125)70% (83)11% (105)0.87 (115)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1454% (23)47% (22)21.932.52628.11230 (14)5 (7).42 (21)1.6 (36)30% (52)34% (26).43 (24)5% (39)2.2 (20)
SYR Defense1252% (112)46% (120) - - - - - - 5 (55).44 (131)1.5 (61)29% (106)33% (111).48 (132)5% (98)2.1 (94)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1450% (87)46% (116) - - - - - - 13 (22).41 (124)1.7 (111)32% (54)34% (122).46 (130)6% (70)2.1 (91)
SYR Offense1252% (42)35% (125)19.234217.36.411.317 (30)15 (132).1 (124)1.6 (55)33% (92)24% (124).12 (128)8% (129)2.1 (44)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.96  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.47  #22
Duke's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5%  #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #23
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #91

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.96   Syracuse: -12.9

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.8   Syracuse: -14.4




Syracuse's Power Ratings
Syracuse's Power Rating: -12.9  #131
Syracuse's Offense Rating: -4.56  #136
Syracuse's Defense Rating: 11.84  #91
2025 Talent Rating: 838.00  #43
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #49
Syracuse's 2025 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Syracuse's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.4  #120
Syracuse's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.1  #116
Syracuse's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.8  #111

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 40
Syracuse 21


Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Syracuse 39
Duke 27

Total Points: 67

Based on Entire Season
Duke 34
Syracuse 25

Total Points: 59
Syracuse Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.8
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

Syracuse's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/27Syracuse3Duke38Duke -4Duke59.5Under
202010/10Syracuse24Duke38Duke -2.5Duke53.5Over
201911/16Duke6Syracuse49Duke -9Syracuse49.5Over
201411/08Syracuse10Duke27Duke -4Duke0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Syracuse112 Overs
Duke331 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 40 - 40 - 10 - 3
Road Teams4 - 04 - 03 - 01 - 0

(#50) DUKE at (#131) SYR
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKESYR
Power RatePwr #50 #131
SP+SP+ #53 #120
Perf GradeGrade #32 #127
OffenseOff #9 #122
DefenseDef #103 #127
Spec TeamsST #26 #111
TalentTal #48 #43
Blue ChipsBC% #54 #49
Duke Notes
(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report
Syracuse Notes
(10/31) QB1 will be Joseph Filardi, a freshman w/ 1 snap
(10/31) QB Filardi cannot play at all. Cuse have 0 QBs
(10/24) Backup QB Collins bad, Fr Carney can't run offense
(9/21) QB1 Angeli out for season (Achilles)
(9/20) Off torched Clemson, Def played well. Huge Win
(9/20) Can't say enough about HC Brown, great job
(8/30) Def torched by Vols, Angeli Ok, run game bad
(8/18) QB1 Steve Angeli (ND) wins starting job
(5/23) Cuse were 7-2 in 1 score games LY
(5/7) OL 2/5 back, Avg LY. 2 more have exp, Petry inj
(4/17) Fr OL Washington is 6'7, 380 lbs and can move.
(4/17) Top WR Pena in portal, big loss. Some depth
Syracuse Injury Report
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffSYR Def
Perf GradePerf #9 #127
SuccessSuc #32 #119
ExplosiveExp #25 #106
PPAPPA #26 #128
PowerPwr #22 #91
SP+SP+ #23 #111
Pts POPPO #28 #113
HavocHav #65 #113
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffSYR Def
Run GameRun #47 #134
Run SuccessRSuc #61 #99
Run ExplRExp #67 #107
PPAExp #93 #77
Run BlockR Blk #21 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #77
Stuff RateStuff #113 #44
TackleTak -  #65
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffSYR Def
Pass GamePass #6 #88
Pass SuccessPSuc #22 #120
Pass ExplPExl #36 #61
PPAExp #21 #131
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #29 #108
F7 HavocF7 #89 #111
DB HavocDB #39 #98
Syracuse on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSYR OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #122 #103
SuccessSuc #119 #99
ExplosiveExp #95 #118
PPAPPA #127 #120
PowerPwr #136 #88
SP+SP+ #116 #91
Pts POPPO #123 #129
HavocHav #125 #28
Syracuse Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SYR OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #106 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #95 #80
Run ExplRExp #115 #100
PPAExp #121 #86
Run BlockR Blk #92 -
OL YdsOLY #125 #36
Stuff RateStuff #68 #13
TackleTak -  #88
Syracuse Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSYR OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #123 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #125 #116
Pass ExplPExl #55 #111
PPAExp #124 #124
Pass Block/RushP Blk #122 #56
F7 HavocF7 #105 #15
DB HavocDB #129 #70
Program Comparison
SYR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carrier Dome
Conditions: Overcast
Temp: 75°
Rematch from Week 5
Duke 4.0 (59.5)
Duke won at Syracuse this year (38-3)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)30544968%36463058.1
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard178962105.449
Anderson Castle (Tr)110470114.366
Jaquez Moore3919214.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)681069615.777
Que'Sean Brown53664312.544
Sahmir Hagans38467612.335
Jeremiah Hasley34404511.956

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver (Tr)815201
Luke Mergott817283
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall3910340
Elliott Schaper162200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123

SYR's OC Jeff Nixon (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rickie Collins (Tr)9718154%10426105.8
Steven Angeli9715563%13171028.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Yasin Willis12955344.341
Will Nixon10743234.028
Tylik Hill2412905.415
Rickie Collins (Tr)5412612.324
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Johntay Cook II (Tr)47559211.959
Darrell Gill Jr.32506515.843
Dan Villari39412010.635
Justus Ross-Simmons20312515.653

View Syracuse's Full Roster

SYR's DC Elijah Robinson (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Gary Bryant III (Tr)535110
Antoine Deslauriers483102
Braheem Long Jr.422202
Chris Peal (Tr)392007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kevin Jobity Jr.206501
Jamie Tremble103320
Braheem Long Jr.422202
Denis Jaquez Jr.195220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Peal (Tr)392007
Demetres Samuel Jr.371007
Darian Chestnut350003