Duke at Illinois - 2026 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini

Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Memorial Stadium - Champaign, IL

Blue Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)

ILL 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Illinois -8.5 (SP+ ILL -6)
Projected Score: DUKE: 24 - ILL: 32 (56)
ILL Win prob: 71% | Cover: 46%
DUKE Travel: 579 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Fighting Illini (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Bret Bielema (37 - 26)
Avg Score : 29 - 24 (31 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.3 - 3.7 (#24)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 5) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
ILL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Duke vs Tulane	-8
Sat 9/12	Duke at Illinois	+8.5
Sat 9/19	Duke vs Stanford	-14.5
Sat 9/26	Duke vs William & Mary	-30.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10	Duke at Georgia Tech	+4.5
Sat 10/17	Duke vs North Carolina	-10
Fri 10/23	Duke at Virginia	+6.5
Sat 10/31	Duke vs Boston College	-12.5
Fri 11/6	Duke at NC State	+4
Sat 11/14	Duke at Miami	+20
Sat 11/21	Duke vs Clemson	+1.5
Sat 11/28	Duke at Wake Forest	+3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Illinois's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Illinois vs UAB	-27.5
Sat 9/12	Illinois vs Duke	-8.5
Sat 9/19	Illinois vs Southern Illinois	-36.5
Sat 9/26	Illinois at Ohio State	+19
Sat 10/3	Illinois vs Purdue	-18.5
Sat 10/10	Illinois at Michigan State	-10.5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/24	Illinois vs Oregon	+11.5
Sat 10/31	Illinois at Maryland	-8.5
Sat 11/7	Illinois vs Nebraska	-9.5
Sat 11/14	Illinois at UCLA	-7.5
Sat 11/21	Illinois vs Iowa	+1
Sat 11/28	Illinois vs Northwestern	-12

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Illinois's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#25 (.25)	46% (30)	34.6	45% (51)	2.8 (99)	138	47% (20)	285	4.32 (26)	#116 (.23)	44% (98)	29.4	43% (73)	46% (119)	4.39 (129)	62.7	1	1.7
ILL	#39 (.21)	48% (15)	29.4	48% (15)	3.04 (52)	138	48% (14)	236	4.21 (29)	#96 (.2)	45% (114)	23.6	41% (53)	49% (133)	4.33 (125)	39.5	0.8	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ILL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	14	34.6	37	46%	4.32	1	23	424	138	285	4.3	44%	55%	45%	47%	15%	.25
ILL Defense	13	23.6	14.4	45.2%	4.33	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	41%	49%	15%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	14	29.4	27.5	43.8%	4.39	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	43%	46%	17%	.23
ILL Offense	13	29.4	31.3	47.8%	4.21	0.8	21	374	138	236	3.9	51%	48%	48%	48%	16%	.21

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	14	29:43	22.5	39%	74%	6.4	62.7	1	1.7	6.7	1.9	3	31.3
Illinois	13	30:54	21.2	42%	57%	4.6	39.5	0.8	1.2	4.9	2.2	1	30.3

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	14	44% (112)	45% (51)	32.4	138.2	4.3	26 (60)	.08 (85)	2.8 (99)	69% (85)	10% (79)	0.97 (65)
ILL Defense	13	44% (10)	41% (53)	-	-	-	-	.07 (50)	2.88 (70)	75% (97)	9% (80)	0.92 (51)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	14	48% (49)	43% (73)	-	-	-	-	.1 (68)	2.62 (19)	73% (85)	12% (14)	1.03 (101)
ILL Offense	13	51% (59)	48% (15)	35.2	138.2	3.9	21 (40)	.08 (87)	3.04 (52)	73% (56)	10% (87)	0.8 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	14	55% (21)	47% (20)	24	36.1	285.4	7.9	11.9	34 (14)	6 (7)	.39 (24)	1.6 (44)	30% (39)	33% (37)	.4 (30)	6% (55)	2.2 (13)
ILL Defense	13	54% (122)	49% (133)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (123)	.32 (102)	1.3 (5)	28% (126)	36% (130)	.39 (112)	6% (67)	2 (62)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	14	50% (86)	46% (119)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (22)	.41 (125)	1.6 (107)	32% (56)	34% (123)	.44 (128)	6% (86)	2 (77)
ILL Offense	13	48% (76)	48% (14)	19.3	28.6	235.8	8.2	12.2	23 (33)	6 (7)	.41 (21)	1.6 (56)	29% (34)	37% (14)	.37 (43)	6% (51)	1.9 (111)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 7.56 #48
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.54 #29
Duke's Defense Rating: 15.98 #69
2026 Talent Rating: 818.00 #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #64
Duke's 2026 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Duke's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8 #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 7.56 Illinois: 15.54

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.6 Illinois: 12.9

Illinois's Power Ratings
Illinois's Power Rating: 15.54 #27
Illinois's Offense Rating: 19.46 #25
Illinois's Defense Rating: 11.28 #37
2026 Talent Rating: 914.00 #31
Blue Chip Ratio: 9 #44
Illinois's 2026 Expected Record: 8.3 - 3.7
Illinois's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.9 #24
Illinois's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Illinois's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #41

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Illinois 32
Duke 24

Projected Total Points: 56

Illinois Scoring
Offense: 29.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.3
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 14.4

Illinois's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Duke	19	Illinois	45	Illinois -2.5	Illinois	49.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Illinois	1	1	1 Overs
Duke	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0

(#48) DUKE at (#27) ILL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	ILL
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#48	#27
SP+SP+	#44	#24
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#55	#31
Blue ChipsBC%	#64	#44

Duke Notes(2/17) Vibes: Solid, Diaz won ACC, Mensah loss a blow
(2/7) DC Patke? Def has gotten worse each year
(2/6) QB Eget (SJSU) still needs waiver to play in '26
(2/6) RB Sheppard back, one of ACC's best in '25
(2/6) WR lots of ? Two G5/FCS adds only w real exp
(2/6) TE Hasley a good weapon and really good blocker
(2/6) OL has 2 back, added 2 starters. Looks decent
(2/6) DL has ?, lots of limited exp, nothing obvious
(2/6) LBs good unit w Mergott. Have some depth
(2/6) DBs torched in '25, added 5 portals, lots of exp
Duke Injury Report

Illinois Notes(2/17) Vibes: V high, 19 wins in past 2, love HC B.B.
(2/9) New DC Bobby Hauck was Montana's HC (7 yrs)
(2/7) Getting CB Scott back after missing LY a huge boost
(2/4) QB Houser (ECU) a great add. No proven depth
(2/4) RB has top 3 back. Very good stable w depth
(2/4) WR has 4 exp'd & productive starters. Nice rotation
(2/4) OL rebuild w 2 portals & 3 JUCO's. Big ?
(2/4) DL counting on 5 G5 portals. Have exp but ?
(2/4) LB should be good unit w exp and depth options
(2/4) DBs return a lot but torched LY. Must improve
(2/4) Lots of ? esp on lines. Counting on a lot that's new
Illinois Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	ILL Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#30	#114
ExplosiveExp	#30	#37
PPAPPA	#25	#96
PowerPwr	#29	#37
SP+SP+	#19	#41
Pts POPPO	#26	#125
HavocHav	#67	#75

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	ILL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#53
Run ExplRExp	#65	#51
PPAExp	#85	#50
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#99	#70
Stuff RateStuff	#115	#70
TackleTak	-	NR

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	ILL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#133
Pass ExplPExl	#44	#5
PPAExp	#24	#102
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#79	#80
DB HavocDB	#55	#67

Illinois on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#15	#98
ExplosiveExp	#118	#120
PPAPPA	#39	#116
PowerPwr	#25	#69
SP+SP+	#27	#86
Pts POPPO	#29	#129
HavocHav	#70	#36

Illinois Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#15	#73
Run ExplRExp	#131	#101
PPAExp	#87	#68
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#52	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#11
TackleTak	-	NR

Illinois Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	ILL Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#14	#119
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#107
PPAExp	#21	#125
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#87	#14
DB HavocDB	#51	#86

Program Comparison
ILL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'26 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Illinois beat Duke last year (45-19)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget (Tr)	232	393	59%	3058	17	9	7.8
Ari Patu (Tr)	48	95	51%	517	5	4	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Sheppard	200	1132	11	5.7	60
Ari Patu (Tr)	44	133	1	3.0	25
CJ Campbell	22	119	0	5.4	22
Walker Eget (Tr)	33	96	0	2.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jared Richardson (Tr)	80	1033	12	12.9	76
Javen Nicholas (Tr)	60	740	5	12.3	64
Jeremiah Hasley	40	454	6	11.4	56
Nate Sheppard	37	286	1	7.7	20

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
DaShawn Stone	86	2	0	1	3
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)	70	1	0	0	3
Landan Callahan	42	0	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elliott Schaper	16	2	2	0	0
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Kendall Johnson	37	3	1	4	2
Tyshon Reed	23	3	1	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Flowers (Tr)	33	1	0	0	4
Luke Mergott	91	8	2	9	3
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)	70	1	0	0	3

ILL's OC Barry Lunney Jr. (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser (Tr)	269	408	66%	3300	19	6	8.1
Ty Robinson (Tr)	2	3	67%	77	0	0	25.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ca'Lil Valentine	131	614	4	4.7	25
Kaden Feagin	122	507	7	4.2	26
Aidan Laughery	75	382	3	5.1	57
Katin Houser (Tr)	85	193	9	2.3	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Alex Perry (Tr)	56	840	9	15.0	64
Jayshon Platt (Tr)	46	720	5	15.7	48
Collin Dixon	35	548	5	15.7	61
Hudson Clement	36	454	3	12.6	27

View Illinois's Full Roster

ILL's DC Bobby Hauck (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Matthew Bailey	76	4	0	1	2
Robert Edmonson (Tr)	47	4	1	5	0
William Holmes (Tr)	45	7	2	5	0
James Thompson Jr.	40	3	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darrell Prater (Tr)	21	4	4	0	0
William Holmes (Tr)	45	7	2	5	0
James Thompson Jr.	40	3	2	2	1
Joe Barna	20	2	2	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaheim Clarke	30	1	7
James Kreutz	30	4	3
Deuce Fillmore (Tr)	39	0	3