Duke at Miami - 2024 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at Miami HurricanesMiami logo
Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Miami -21 (55.5) (-1650)  Open: -19.5
Miami 53 - Duke: 31  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Rain Shower Predicted
MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Miami -18.5   (SP+ MIAMI -16)
Projected Score: DUKE: 19 - MIAMI: 38 (60)
MIAMI Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
DUKE Travel: 698 miles
Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 44 - 25 (48 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Miami's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Miami at Florida-2.554.5W 41 - 17OY
Sat 9/7 Miami vs Florida A&M-46.555.5W 56 - 9OY
Sat 9/14 Miami vs Ball State-36.555.5W 62 - 0OY
Sat 9/21 Miami at South Florida-17.064.5W 50 - 15OY
Fri 9/27 Miami vs Virginia Tech-17.555.5W 38 - 34ON
Sat 10/5 Miami at California-10.054.0W 39 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Miami at Louisville-4.561.5W 52 - 45OY
Sat 10/26 Miami vs Florida State-22.555.0W 36 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Miami vs Duke-21.055.5W 53 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Miami at Georgia Tech-9.564.5L 23 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Miami vs Wake Forest-23.567.0W 42 - 14UY
Sat 11/30 Miami at Syracuse-12.565.5L 38 - 42ON
Sat 12/28 Miami vs Iowa State-5.062.0L 41 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 6, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#64 (.2)42% (69)26.342% (77)3.1 (70)16742% (66)1814.27 (31)#52 (.16)43% (86)24.543% (69)44% (101)3.47 (43)461.21.2
MIAMI#37 (.27)43% (52)43.943% (64)3.35 (24)17344% (43)2583.99 (56)#37 (.14)39% (31)25.338% (27)39% (38)4.53 (125)57.81.71.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1326.328.442%4.271.2193481671814.852%47%42%42%13%.2
MIAMI Defense1325.31738.5%4.531.4 - - - - - 47%52%38%39%17%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1324.52643.3%3.471.2 - - - - - 49%50%43%44%16%.16
MIAMI Offense1343.947.843.3%3.991.7224311732585.147%52%43%44%14%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1328:5918.736%60%5.6461.21.25.52.1131.2
Miami1331:5221.941%52%6.157.81.71.462.6229.4
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1352% (47)42% (77)34.5166.84.826 (30).17 (56)3.1 (70)66% (114)8% (20)1.08 (30)
MIAMI Defense1347% (36)38% (27) - - - - .07 (28)2.65 (12)70% (45)12% (27)1 (71)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1349% (53)43% (69) - - - - .11 (46)3.18 (90)68% (39)10% (82)0.96 (43)
MIAMI Offense1347% (96)43% (64)33.8173.25.124 (41).2 (44)3.35 (24)82% (10)8% (21)1.03 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1347% (84)42% (66)15.427.5180.86.611.814 (106)8 (30).24 (79)1.4 (122)33% (88)31% (65).4 (43)6% (62)2 (95)
MIAMI Defense1352% (102)39% (38) - - - - - - 12 (37).22 (41)1.6 (60)33% (47)28% (33).3 (62)5% (104)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1350% (83)44% (101) - - - - - - 10 (67).22 (42)1.4 (3)31% (86)31% (78).3 (64)6% (56)2 (56)
MIAMI Offense1352% (42)44% (43)21.833.62587.711.923 (51)14 (107).39 (28)1.6 (55)30% (36)32% (63).36 (60)6% (91)2 (87)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68   Miami: 22.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6   Miami: 21.6




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.865 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 38
Duke 19

Projected Total Points: 60
Miami Scoring
Offense: 43.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 47.8
Defense: 25.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Miami53Duke31MiamiMiami -21Miami55.5Over
202210/22Miami21Duke45DukeMiami -10Duke59.0Over
202111/27Duke10Miami47MiamiMiami -20.5Miami67.0Under
202012/05Duke0Miami48MiamiMiami -14.5Miami62.0Under
201911/30Duke27Miami17DukeMiami -9.5Duke44.0Push
201811/03Miami12Duke20DukeMiami -9.5Duke51.0Under
201709/29Duke6Miami31MiamiMiami -5.5Miami55.5Under
201611/26Miami40Duke21MiamiMiami -14Miami55.0Over
201510/31Duke27Miami30MiamiDuke -8Miami51.5Over
201409/27Miami22Duke10MiamiMiami -5.5Miami0
201311/16Duke48Miami30DukeMiami -3Duke0
201211/24Duke45Miami52Miami
201111/05Miami49Duke14Miami
201010/16Duke13Miami28Miami
200911/21Miami34Duke16Miami
200810/18Duke31Miami49Miami
200709/29Miami24Duke14Miami
200610/21Duke15Miami20Miami
200510/08Miami52Duke7Miami
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami1574 Overs
Duke444 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 105 - 63 - 32 - 3
Road Teams10 - 96 - 53 - 23 - 3

(#50) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
Duke     Ratings Matchup     Miami
Power #50
#8
Off #113
#1
Def #17
#52
Talent #56
#12
SP+ #44
#10
SP+ Off #71
#1
SP+ Def #31
#51

Rematch from Week 10
Miami -21.0 (55.5)
Miami won vs Duke this year (53-31)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Duke last year (53-31)
Duke beat Miami in 2022 (45-21)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions: Rain Shower
Temp: 85° - Wind: 10 mph
Rain: 0.012


Team Information
Injuries: DUKE | MIAMI
Depth Chart: DUKE | MIAMI
Rosters: DUKE | MIAMI
(#8) Miami Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.865 #8
Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51
Talent Rating: 932.00 #12
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
Great Offense Success Rate of 52%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.96 PPO
Great Run Success 56%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position



  
Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865
Star Thomas (Tr)2015317.729
Javon Harvey (Tr)1110119.216

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)1004142
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Terry Moore717105
Tre Freeman674132
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Vincent Anthony25105133
Aaron Hall439462
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers548138
Terry Moore717105
Kimari Robinson235014

Miami's OC Shannon Dawson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Cameron Ward30545467%43133979.5
Emory Williams162662%187117.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)1591002106.375
Mark Fletcher Jr.11260795.430
Jordan Lyle5440047.491
Cameron Ward6020443.424
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Horton56616511.030
Sam Brown (Tr)36509214.176
Damien Martinez (Tr)17204012.036
Elija Lofton9150116.740

View Miami's Full Roster
Miami's DC Lance Guidry
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Bissainthe595211
Jaden Harris404202
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Baron (Tr)3811660
Akheem Mesidor329620
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)308631
Rueben Bain Jr.236410
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mishael Powell (Tr)382116
OJ Frederique Jr.231006
Ja'Dais Richard272023