Duke at Miami - 2024 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Miami -21 (55.5) (-1650) Open: -19.5
Miami 53 - Duke: 31 (ACC)

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MIAMI 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Miami -18.5 (SP+ MIAMI -16)
Projected Score: DUKE: 19 - MIAMI: 37 (56)
MIAMI Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
DUKE Travel: 698 miles

Hurricanes (10 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (12 - 13)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
MIAMI Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Miami's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Miami at Florida	-2.5	54.5	W 41 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Miami vs Florida A&M	-46.5	55.5	W 56 - 9	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Miami vs Ball State	-36.5	55.5	W 62 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Miami at South Florida	-17.0	64.5	W 50 - 15	O	Y
Fri 9/27	Miami vs Virginia Tech	-17.5	55.5	W 38 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/5	Miami at California	-10.0	54.0	W 39 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Miami at Louisville	-4.5	61.5	W 52 - 45	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Miami vs Florida State	-22.5	55.0	W 36 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Miami vs Duke	-21.0	55.5	W 53 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Miami at Georgia Tech	-9.5	64.5	L 23 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Miami vs Wake Forest	-23.5	67.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Miami at Syracuse	-12.5	65.5	L 38 - 42	O	N
Sat 12/28	Miami vs Iowa State	-5.0	62.0	L 41 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	34.6	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	29.4	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2
MIAMI	#37 (.27)	43% (52)	30.9	43% (64)	3.35 (24)	173	44% (43)	258	3.99 (56)	#37 (.14)	39% (31)	14.8	38% (27)	39% (38)	4.53 (125)	57.8	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIAMI		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	37	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2
MIAMI Defense	13	14.8	11.8	38.5%	4.53	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	38%	39%	17%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	27.5	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16
MIAMI Offense	13	30.9	36.1	43.3%	3.99	1.7	22	431	173	258	5.1	47%	52%	43%	44%	14%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2
Miami	13	31:52	21.9	41%	52%	6.1	57.8	1.7	1.4	6	2.6	2	29.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)
MIAMI Defense	13	47% (36)	38% (27)	-	-	-	-	.07 (28)	2.65 (12)	70% (45)	12% (27)	1 (71)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)
MIAMI Offense	13	47% (96)	43% (64)	33.8	173.2	5.1	24 (41)	.2 (44)	3.35 (24)	82% (10)	8% (21)	1.03 (51)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)
MIAMI Defense	13	52% (102)	39% (38)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.22 (41)	1.6 (60)	33% (47)	28% (33)	.3 (62)	5% (104)	2.2 (111)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)
MIAMI Offense	13	52% (42)	44% (43)	21.8	33.6	258	7.7	11.9	23 (51)	14 (107)	.39 (28)	1.6 (55)	30% (36)	32% (63)	.36 (60)	6% (91)	2 (87)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 360.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68 Miami: 22.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 Miami: 21.6

Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 22.865 #8
Miami's Offense Rating: 31.60 #1
Miami's Defense Rating: 7.71 #52
2024 Talent Rating: 527.00 #14
Blue Chip Ratio: 43 #13
Miami's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Miami's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 21.6 #10
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 44.2 #1
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.3 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Miami 37
Duke 19

Projected Total Points: 56

Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 3
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Miami	53	Duke	31	Miami -21	Miami	55.5	Over
2022	10/22	Miami	21	Duke	45	Miami -10	Duke	59.0	Over
2021	11/27	Duke	10	Miami	47	Miami -20.5	Miami	67.0	Under
2020	12/05	Duke	0	Miami	48	Miami -14.5	Miami	62.0	Under
2019	11/30	Duke	27	Miami	17	Miami -9.5	Duke	44.0	Push
2018	11/03	Miami	12	Duke	20	Miami -9.5	Duke	51.0	Under
2017	09/29	Duke	6	Miami	31	Miami -5.5	Miami	55.5	Under
2016	11/26	Miami	40	Duke	21	Miami -14	Miami	55.0	Over
2015	10/31	Duke	27	Miami	30	Duke -8	Miami	51.5	Over
2014	09/27	Miami	22	Duke	10	Miami -5.5	Miami	0
2013	11/16	Duke	48	Miami	30	Miami -3	Duke	0
2012	11/24	Duke	45	Miami	52
2011	11/05	Miami	49	Duke	14
2010	10/16	Duke	13	Miami	28
2009	11/21	Miami	34	Duke	16
2008	10/18	Duke	31	Miami	49
2007	09/29	Miami	24	Duke	14
2006	10/21	Duke	15	Miami	20
2005	10/08	Miami	52	Duke	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Miami	15	7	4 Overs
Duke	4	4	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 10	5 - 6	3 - 3	2 - 3
Road Teams	10 - 9	6 - 5	3 - 2	3 - 3

(#50) DUKE at (#8) MIAMI

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	MIAMI
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#50	#8
SP+SP+	#44	#10
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#3
OffenseOff	#90	#3
DefenseDef	#25	#14
Spec TeamsST	#68	#97
TalentTal	#58	#14
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#13

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

Miami Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MIAMI Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#14
SuccessSuc	#69	#31
ExplosiveExp	#93	#76
PPAPPA	#64	#37
PowerPwr	#113	#52
SP+SP+	#71	#51
Pts POPPO	#31	#125
HavocHav	#22	#56

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MIAMI Def
Run GameRun	#122	#9
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#27
Run ExplRExp	#30	#71
PPAExp	#56	#28
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#12
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#9
TackleTak	-	#99

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MIAMI Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#59
Pass SuccessPSuc	#66	#38
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#60
PPAExp	#79	#41
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#14
F7 HavocF7	#20	#27
DB HavocDB	#62	#104

Miami on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#3	#25
SuccessSuc	#52	#86
ExplosiveExp	#37	#12
PPAPPA	#37	#52
PowerPwr	#1	#17
SP+SP+	#1	#31
Pts POPPO	#56	#43
HavocHav	#38	#71

Miami Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#2	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#64	#69
Run ExplRExp	#51	#43
PPAExp	#44	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#24	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#58	#65
TackleTak	-	#73

Miami Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 57%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat	MIAMI Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#2	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#43	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#55	#3
PPAExp	#28	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#27	#37
F7 HavocF7	#21	#82
DB HavocDB	#91	#56

Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 10
Miami -21.0 (55.5)
Miami won vs Duke this year (53-31)

Previous Matchups
Miami beat Duke in 2024 (53-31)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cameron Ward	305	454	67%	4313	39	7	9.5
Emory Williams	16	26	62%	187	1	1	7.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Damien Martinez (Tr)	159	1002	10	6.3	75
Mark Fletcher Jr.	112	607	9	5.4	30
Jordan Lyle	54	400	4	7.4	91
Cameron Ward	60	204	4	3.4	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Xavier Restrepo	69	1127	11	16.3	77
Jacolby George	53	752	8	14.2	49
Isaiah Horton	56	616	5	11.0	30
Elijah Arroyo	35	590	7	16.9	74

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Lance Guidry (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Francisco Mauigoa	96	11	2	5	5
Wesley Bissainthe	59	5	2	1	1
Jaden Harris	40	4	2	0	2
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Akheem Mesidor	32	9	6	2	0
Tyler Baron (Tr)	38	11	6	6	0
Simeon Barrow Jr. (Tr)	30	8	6	3	1
Rueben Bain Jr.	23	6	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Daryl Porter Jr.	28	0	0	2	7
OJ Frederique Jr.	23	1	0	0	6
Mishael Powell (Tr)	38	2	1	1	6