Duke at NC State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
NC State -3.5 (51.5) (-150) Open: -3.0 | 50.5
Duke 29 - NC State: 19 (ACC)

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
DUKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: NC State -0 (SP+ DUKE -1.5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 27 - NCST: 27 (54)
NCST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 18 miles

Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
NCST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

NC State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	NC State vs Western Carolina	-32.5	60.5	W 38 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/7	NC State vs Tennessee	+10.0	60.5	L 10 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/14	NC State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5	47.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 9/21	NC State at Clemson	+17.0	44.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 9/28	NC State vs Northern Illinois	-7.0	46.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 10/5	NC State vs Wake Forest	-4.0	52.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	NC State vs Syracuse	+1.0	51.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/19	NC State at California	+9.5	46.0	W 24 - 23	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	NC State vs Stanford	-10.0	46.5	W 59 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/9	NC State vs Duke	-3.5	51.5	L 19 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21	NC State at Georgia Tech	+7.5	51.5	L 29 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/30	NC State at North Carolina	+2.5	54.5	W 35 - 30	O	Y
Sat 12/28	NC State vs East Carolina	-7.5	61.5	L 21 - 26	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)	26.3	35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)	24.5	41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)	28.5	44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)	30.2	39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	28.4	38.6%	3.7	1.4	16	315	89	226	3.3	44%	56%	35%	42%	19%	.12
NCST Defense	13	30.2	24.7	40.9%	3.78	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	39%	43%	20%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	26	37.6%	3.19	2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	34%	23%	.06
NCST Offense	13	28.5	31	45.1%	3.97	1.7	19	345	130	215	4.4	47%	52%	44%	47%	19%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	25:05	16.3	29%	38%	5.1	48.9	1.4	2	8.5	3.2	1	31.2
NC State	13	29:10	18.6	37%	56%	4.8	45	1.7	1.4	6.2	1.8	2	28.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	44% (110)	35% (129)	27.5	89.2	3.3	13 (105)	-.07 (133)	2.47 (131)	78% (32)	10% (78)	0.74 (131)
NCST Defense	13	47% (33)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	.2 (111)	3.07 (83)	76% (86)	12% (24)	1.28 (134)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	52% (81)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.06 (35)	2.74 (28)	59% (6)	15% (2)	0.91 (38)
NCST Offense	13	47% (89)	44% (68)	29.6	130.3	4.4	21 (59)	.15 (56)	3.24 (36)	69% (92)	13% (127)	0.98 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	56% (24)	42% (69)	19.6	32.5	226.1	7	11.5	26 (26)	12 (85)	.28 (55)	1.6 (56)	32% (73)	29% (98)	.3 (82)	9% (129)	2 (78)
NCST Defense	13	53% (106)	43% (87)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.19 (47)	1.5 (22)	33% (49)	30% (65)	.33 (83)	8% (16)	2.3 (120)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	48% (53)	34% (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.06 (7)	1.5 (39)	34% (35)	29% (41)	.27 (53)	7% (28)	2.1 (69)
NCST Offense	13	52% (48)	47% (20)	18.2	28.1	214.8	7.7	11.8	18 (68)	12 (85)	.36 (24)	1.6 (45)	30% (35)	36% (24)	.57 (5)	6% (83)	2.2 (19)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68 NC State: 4.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 NC State: 3.9

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 4.2 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 27
NC State 27

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
NC State 34
Duke 26

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
NC State 28
Duke 27

Total Points: 55

NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Duke	45	NC State	33	Duke -3	Duke	57.5	Over
2024	11/09	NC State	19	Duke	29	NC State -3.5	Duke	51.5	Under
2023	10/14	Duke	24	NC State	3	Duke -3.5	Duke	44.0	Under
2020	10/17	NC State	31	Duke	20	NC State -3.5	NC State	59.5	Under
2013	11/09	Duke	38	NC State	20	Duke -9	Duke	0
2009	10/10	NC State	28	Duke	49
2008	11/08	Duke	17	NC State	27
2003	10/25	Duke	21	NC State	28
2002	10/19	NC State	24	Duke	22
2001	11/03	Duke	31	NC State	55
2000	11/10	NC State	35	Duke	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
NC State	6	1	1 Overs
Duke	5	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	4 - 1	4 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 6	1 - 4	0 - 0	1 - 4

(#50) DUKE at (#66) NCST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	NCST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#50	#66
SP+SP+	#44	#56
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#51
OffenseOff	#90	#58
DefenseDef	#25	#49
Spec TeamsST	#68	#94
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#33

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

NC State Notes(11/25) Rgame mauled GT, but 3 Bailey INTs, bad Def
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
(9/1) Close w/ W Car, gave up 9 TFLs, McCall good
NC State Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#49
SuccessSuc	#116	#59
ExplosiveExp	#84	#113
PPAPPA	#109	#86
PowerPwr	#113	#89
SP+SP+	#71	#68
Pts POPPO	#90	#67
HavocHav	#115	#16

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#122	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#31
Run ExplRExp	#131	#134
PPAExp	#133	#111
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#83
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#105
TackleTak	-	#41

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#54
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#87
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#22
PPAExp	#55	#47
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#57
F7 HavocF7	#78	#24
DB HavocDB	#129	#16

NC State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#58	#25
SuccessSuc	#36	#16
ExplosiveExp	#32	#22
PPAPPA	#26	#10
PowerPwr	#43	#17
SP+SP+	#47	#31
Pts POPPO	#61	#17
HavocHav	#122	#2

NC State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#110	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#68	#51
Run ExplRExp	#59	#38
PPAExp	#56	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#24	-
OL YdsOLY	#36	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#16
TackleTak	-	#73

NC State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#40	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#20	#5
Pass ExplPExl	#45	#39
PPAExp	#24	#7
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#10	#37
F7 HavocF7	#127	#2
DB HavocDB	#83	#28

Program Comparison
NCST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 61° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 11
NC State -3.5 (51.5)
Duke won at NC State this year (29-19)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat NC State last year (29-19)
Duke beat NC State in 2023 (24-3)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
CJ Bailey	196	302	65%	2412	17	10	8.0
Grayson McCall (Tr)	53	80	66%	518	3	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Daylan Smothers	89	571	6	6.4	53
Jordan Waters (Tr)	95	470	4	4.9	94
Kendrick Raphael	78	425	3	5.4	40
CJ Bailey	99	279	5	2.8	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Justin Joly (Tr)	43	661	4	15.4	40
Noah Rogers (Tr)	35	478	1	13.7	75
Kevin Concepcion	53	459	6	8.7	42
Wesley Grimes (Tr)	24	319	1	13.3	30

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Donovan Kaufman (Tr)	74	4	1	6	4
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2
Aydan White	59	0	0	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	41	14	7	2	2
Travali Price	37	9	4	3	0
Sean Brown	95	9	3	13	1
Devon Betty	61	9	2	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Bishop Fitzgerald	55	7	0	2	8
Devon Marshall (Tr)	33	1	0	0	7
Tamarcus Cooley (Tr)	39	3	1	2	6