Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
NC State -3.5 (51.5) (-150) Open: -3.0 | 50.5
Duke 29 - NC State: 19 (ACC)
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
DUKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: NC State -0 (SP+ DUKE -1.5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 27 - NCST: 27 (53)
NCST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 18 miles
NCST 2nd straight Home Game
DUKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: NC State -0 (SP+ DUKE -1.5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 27 - NCST: 27 (53)
NCST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 18 miles
Wolfpack (6 - 7) (4 - 8 - 1)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (81 - 58)
Avg Score : 29 - 30 (31 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
| Duke's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Fri 8/30 | Duke vs Elon | -24.5 | 47.5 | W 26 - 3 | U | N | |
| Fri 9/6 | Duke vs Northwestern | +2.5 | 37.5 | W 26 - 20 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/14 | Duke vs UConn | -17.5 | 46.5 | W 26 - 21 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | Duke at Middle Tennessee | -14.5 | 51.0 | W 45 - 17 | O | Y | |
| Sat 9/28 | Duke vs North Carolina | +1.0 | 55.5 | W 21 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/5 | Duke at Georgia Tech | +10.0 | 52.5 | L 14 - 24 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Fri 10/18 | Duke vs Florida State | -2.5 | 43.0 | W 23 - 16 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/26 | Duke vs SMU | +11.5 | 49.5 | L 27 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/2 | Duke at Miami | +21.0 | 55.5 | L 31 - 53 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/9 | Duke at NC State | +3.5 | 51.5 | W 29 - 19 | U | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/23 | Duke vs Virginia Tech | +2.5 | 45.5 | W 31 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Duke at Wake Forest | -3.5 | 53.5 | W 23 - 17 | U | Y | |
| Thu 1/2 | Duke vs Ole Miss | +17.5 | 50.5 | L 20 - 52 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
| NC State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Thu 8/29 | NC State vs Western Carolina | -32.5 | 60.5 | W 38 - 21 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | NC State vs Tennessee | +10.0 | 60.5 | L 10 - 51 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | NC State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5 | 47.5 | W 30 - 20 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/21 | NC State at Clemson | +17.0 | 44.0 | L 35 - 59 | O | N | |
| Sat 9/28 | NC State vs Northern Illinois | -7.0 | 46.0 | W 24 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | NC State vs Wake Forest | -4.0 | 52.5 | L 30 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | NC State vs Syracuse | +1.0 | 51.5 | L 17 - 24 | U | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | NC State at California | +9.5 | 46.0 | W 24 - 23 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/2 | NC State vs Stanford | -10.0 | 46.5 | W 59 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/9 | NC State vs Duke | -3.5 | 51.5 | L 19 - 29 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Thu 11/21 | NC State at Georgia Tech | +7.5 | 51.5 | L 29 - 30 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | NC State at North Carolina | +2.5 | 54.5 | W 35 - 30 | O | Y | |
| Sat 12/28 | NC State vs East Carolina | -7.5 | 61.5 | L 21 - 26 | U | N | |
Total: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Predictions for NC State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | #109 (.12) | 39% (116) | 26.3 | 35% (129) | 2.47 (131) | 89 | 42% (69) | 226 | 3.7 (90) | #10 (.06) | 38% (16) | 24.5 | 41% (51) | 34% (5) | 3.19 (17) | 48.9 | 1.4 | 2 |
| NCST | #26 (.25) | 45% (36) | 28.5 | 44% (68) | 3.24 (36) | 130 | 47% (20) | 215 | 3.97 (61) | #86 (.19) | 41% (59) | 30.2 | 39% (31) | 43% (87) | 3.78 (67) | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE | #109 (.12) | 39% (116) | 35% (129) | 2.47 (131) | 89 | 42% (69) | 226 | 3.7 (90) | #10 (.06) | 38% (16) | 41% (51) | 34% (5) | 3.19 (17) | 48.9 | 1.4 | 2 | ||
| NCST | #26 (.25) | 45% (36) | 44% (68) | 3.24 (36) | 130 | 47% (20) | 215 | 3.97 (61) | #86 (.19) | 41% (59) | 39% (31) | 43% (87) | 3.78 (67) | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE Offense | 13 | 26.3 | 28.4 | 38.6% | 3.7 | 1.4 | 16 | 315 | 89 | 226 | 3.3 | 44% | 56% | 35% | 42% | 19% | .12 |
| NCST Defense | 13 | 30.2 | 24.7 | 40.9% | 3.78 | 1.4 | - | - | - | - | - | 47% | 53% | 39% | 43% | 20% | .19 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE Defense | 13 | 24.5 | 26 | 37.6% | 3.19 | 2 | - | - | - | - | - | 52% | 48% | 41% | 34% | 23% | .06 |
| NCST Offense | 13 | 28.5 | 31 | 45.1% | 3.97 | 1.7 | 19 | 345 | 130 | 215 | 4.4 | 47% | 52% | 44% | 47% | 19% | .25 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 13 | 25:05 | 16.3 | 29% | 38% | 5.1 | 48.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 1 | 31.2 |
| NC State | 13 | 29:10 | 18.6 | 37% | 56% | 4.8 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 28.9 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE Offense | 13 | 44% (110) | 35% (129) | 27.5 | 89.2 | 3.3 | 13 (105) | -.07 (133) | 2.47 (131) | 78% (32) | 10% (78) | 0.74 (131) |
| NCST Defense | 13 | 47% (33) | 39% (31) | - | - | - | - | .2 (111) | 3.07 (83) | 76% (86) | 12% (24) | 1.28 (134) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE Defense | 13 | 52% (81) | 41% (51) | - | - | - | - | .06 (35) | 2.74 (28) | 59% (6) | 15% (2) | 0.91 (38) |
| NCST Offense | 13 | 47% (89) | 44% (68) | 29.6 | 130.3 | 4.4 | 21 (59) | .15 (56) | 3.24 (36) | 69% (92) | 13% (127) | 0.98 (59) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE Offense | 13 | 56% (24) | 42% (69) | 19.6 | 32.5 | 226.1 | 7 | 11.5 | 26 (26) | 12 (85) | .28 (55) | 1.6 (56) | 32% (73) | 29% (98) | .3 (82) | 9% (129) | 2 (78) |
| NCST Defense | 13 | 53% (106) | 43% (87) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8 (93) | .19 (47) | 1.5 (22) | 33% (49) | 30% (65) | .33 (83) | 8% (16) | 2.3 (120) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUKE Defense | 13 | 48% (53) | 34% (5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 12 (39) | .06 (7) | 1.5 (39) | 34% (35) | 29% (41) | .27 (53) | 7% (28) | 2.1 (69) |
| NCST Offense | 13 | 52% (48) | 47% (20) | 18.2 | 28.1 | 214.8 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 18 (68) | 12 (85) | .36 (24) | 1.6 (45) | 30% (35) | 36% (24) | .57 (5) | 6% (83) | 2.2 (19) |
Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68 NC State: 4.2
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 NC State: 3.9
Duke: 2.68 NC State: 4.2
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 NC State: 3.9
NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 4.2 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
NC State's Power Rating: 4.2 #66
NC State's Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
NC State's Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
NC State's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
NC State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26
Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26
Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 27
NC State 27
Total Points: 53
Duke 27
NC State 27
Total Points: 53
NC State Scoring
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7
NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1
Offense: 28.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 31
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7
NC State's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 1
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/09 | NC State | 19 | Duke | 29 | Duke | NC State -3.5 | Duke | 51.5 | Under |
| 2023 | 10/14 | Duke | 24 | NC State | 3 | Duke | Duke -3.5 | Duke | 44.0 | Under |
| 2020 | 10/17 | NC State | 31 | Duke | 20 | NC State | NC State -3.5 | NC State | 59.5 | Under |
| 2013 | 11/09 | Duke | 38 | NC State | 20 | Duke | Duke -9 | Duke | 0 | |
| 2009 | 10/10 | NC State | 28 | Duke | 49 | Duke | ||||
| 2008 | 11/08 | Duke | 17 | NC State | 27 | NC State | ||||
| 2003 | 10/25 | Duke | 21 | NC State | 28 | NC State | ||||
| 2002 | 10/19 | NC State | 24 | Duke | 22 | NC State | ||||
| 2001 | 11/03 | Duke | 31 | NC State | 55 | NC State | ||||
| 2000 | 11/10 | NC State | 35 | Duke | 31 | NC State |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | 6 | 1 | 0 Overs |
| Duke | 4 | 3 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 5 - 5 | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 0 - 0 |
| Road Teams | 5 - 5 | 1 - 3 | 0 - 0 | 1 - 3 |
(#50) Duke Info
Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Duke has lost 2 straight
Duke has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (3 - 1 - 1 vs Spread )
Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
Duke Highlights
Duke Defense Sacks the QB a lot
Duke has a really good defense (#64)
Duke defense does not give up big plays (#126)
Duke defense is really good in red zone (#128)
Duke has a good pass defense (#102)
Duke Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#8)
Duke Defensive Line is very good (#25)
Duke Front 7 is disruptive (#19)
Duke Secondary is very good (#128)
Duke Deficiencies
Duke Can Not Run the Ball (#98)
Duke offense is really bad (#43)
Duke Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#86)
Duke run game is really bad (#79)
Duke offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Duke has lost 2 straight
Duke has lost 2 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 4 - 2 (3 - 1 - 1 vs Spread )
Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
Duke Highlights
Duke Defense Sacks the QB a lot
Duke has a really good defense (#64)
Duke defense does not give up big plays (#126)
Duke defense is really good in red zone (#128)
Duke has a good pass defense (#102)
Duke Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#8)
Duke Defensive Line is very good (#25)
Duke Front 7 is disruptive (#19)
Duke Secondary is very good (#128)
Duke Deficiencies
Duke Can Not Run the Ball (#98)
Duke offense is really bad (#43)
Duke Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#86)
Duke run game is really bad (#79)
Duke offense is bad on 3rd Downs
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | NCST | DUKE |
| OverallOver | #37 | #43 |
| OffenseOff | #49 | #73 |
| DefenseDef | #36 | #19 |
| Special TeamsST | #79 | #56 |
| PassingPass | #33 | #47 |
| RushingRush | #79 | #90 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #20 | #67 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #10 | #60 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #65 | #57 |
| TacklingTkl | #37 | #64 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #43 | #49 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #51 | #32 |
| Coverage DefCov | #43 | #8 |
Rematch from Week 11
NC State -3.5 (51.5)
Duke won at NC State this year (29-19)
Previous Matchups
Duke beat NC State last year (29-19)
Duke beat NC State in 2023 (24-3)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Carter-Finley Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: DUKE | NCST
Depth Chart: DUKE | NCST
Rosters: DUKE | NCST
(#66) NC State Info
Power Rating: 4.2 #66
Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
NC State has won 2 straight
NC State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (1 - 5 - 1 vs Spread)
NC State Notes
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
NC State Highlights
NC State Front 7 is disruptive (#94)
NC State Secondary is very good (#80)
NC State commits very few Penalties (#75)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State has a bad TO Margin (#11)
NC State Fumbles a Lot (#1)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
NC State Does Not Stuff Runs (#42)
Power Rating: 4.2 #66
Offense Rating: 22.82 #43
Defense Rating: 12.12 #89
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.9 #56
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #68
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Bad Run Success 44%
Great Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.78 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
NC State has won 2 straight
NC State has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 3 (1 - 5 - 1 vs Spread)
NC State Notes
(11/13) Off abysmal (< 3 ypc) vs Duke, Pass D torched
(10/23) McCall carted off in WF game. Retired
(10/13) Pass D torched by Cuse. QB Bailey much better
(10/6) Team melted late vs Wake (L). Def is awful
(9/28) Off awful (171 yds) vs N Ill. Forced 4 TOs to W
(9/21) 110 pts allowed to Tenn/Clem. Shockingly bad
(9/18) OL disappointing, portals not as good, injuries
(9/17) McCall hurt, Fr CJ Bailey start at QB vs Clemson
(9/15) Off really bad esp Red Zone. McCall hurt vs LT
(9/8) Off disaster, Run D horrific. Did not belong w/ Tenn
NC State Highlights
NC State Front 7 is disruptive (#94)
NC State Secondary is very good (#80)
NC State commits very few Penalties (#75)
NC State Deficiencies
NC State has a bad TO Margin (#11)
NC State Fumbles a Lot (#1)
NC State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#127)
NC State Does Not Stuff Runs (#42)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maalik Murphy (Tr) | 254 | 421 | 60% | 2932 | 26 | 12 | 7.0 |
| Henry Belin IV | 26 | 45 | 58% | 243 | 2 | 1 | 5.4 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Star Thomas (Tr) | 213 | 871 | 7 | 4.1 | 44 |
| Peyton Jones | 82 | 317 | 3 | 3.9 | 27 |
| Jaquez Moore | 32 | 86 | 1 | 2.7 | 18 |
| Henry Belin IV | 11 | 39 | 0 | 3.5 | 11 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Moore | 55 | 861 | 8 | 15.7 | 58 |
| Eli Pancol | 60 | 798 | 9 | 13.3 | 86 |
| Que'Sean Brown | 41 | 445 | 2 | 10.9 | 43 |
| Sahmir Hagans | 47 | 413 | 3 | 8.8 | 65 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ozzie Nicholas (Tr) | 100 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Alex Howard (Tr) | 89 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Cameron Bergeron | 84 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Terry Moore | 71 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Williams | 47 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| Alex Howard (Tr) | 89 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
| Cameron Bergeron | 84 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| Vincent Anthony | 25 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 3 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Stinson | 67 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| Chandler Rivers | 54 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| Joshua Pickett | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Bailey | 196 | 302 | 65% | 2412 | 17 | 10 | 8.0 |
| Grayson McCall (Tr) | 53 | 80 | 66% | 518 | 3 | 2 | 6.5 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylan Smothers | 89 | 571 | 6 | 6.4 | 53 |
| Jordan Waters (Tr) | 95 | 470 | 4 | 4.9 | 94 |
| Kendrick Raphael | 78 | 425 | 3 | 5.4 | 40 |
| CJ Bailey | 99 | 279 | 5 | 2.8 | 31 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Joly (Tr) | 43 | 661 | 4 | 15.4 | 40 |
| Noah Rogers (Tr) | 35 | 478 | 1 | 13.7 | 75 |
| Kevin Concepcion | 53 | 459 | 6 | 8.7 | 42 |
| Wesley Grimes (Tr) | 24 | 319 | 1 | 13.3 | 30 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brown | 95 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Donovan Kaufman (Tr) | 74 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| Devon Betty | 61 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Aydan White | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davin Vann | 41 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Travali Price | 37 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Sean Brown | 95 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Devon Betty | 61 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Fitzgerald | 55 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| Devon Marshall (Tr) | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Tamarcus Cooley (Tr) | 39 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |