Duke at Virginia - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Duke -4 (48.5) (-142) Open: -4.0 | 48.5
Virginia 30 - Duke: 27 (ACC)

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
UVA is playing their 5th straight game
DUKE is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Duke -12.5 (SP+ DUKE -20)
Projected Score: DUKE: 33 - UVA: 20 (53)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 143 miles

Cavaliers (3 - 9) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (3 - 10)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.7 - 8.3 (#125)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Virginia's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Virginia vs Tennessee	+27.5	56.0	L 13 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/9	Virginia vs James Madison	+6.0	40.0	L 35 - 36	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Virginia at Maryland	+16.5	48.5	L 14 - 42	O	N
Fri 9/22	Virginia vs NC State	+8.5	47.5	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Virginia at Boston College	+5.0	52.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/7	Virginia vs William & Mary	-10.0	42.0	W 27 - 13	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	Virginia at North Carolina	+24.0	58.0	W 31 - 27	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Virginia at Miami	+18.5	48.0	L 26 - 29	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-2.0	57.5	L 17 - 45	O	N
Thu 11/9	Virginia at Louisville	+20.5	49.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Virginia vs Duke	+4.0	48.5	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	52.5	L 17 - 55	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	.24	44%	34.6	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	29.4	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2
UVA	.08	40%	30.8	44%	3.2	123	37%	221	2.81	.13	41%	19.6	40%	41%	3.54	62.2	2.2	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	37	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24
UVA Defense	10	19.6	17.7	40.8%	3.54	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	40%	41%	15%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	27.5	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18
UVA Offense	10	30.8	36.4	39.7%	2.81	2.2	19	344	123	221	3.7	45%	54%	44%	37%	22%	.08

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8
Virginia	10	27:30	19	32%	39%	7	62.2	2.2	1.7	5.1	3	0	28.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06
UVA Defense	10	51%	40%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.26	67%	9%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83
UVA Offense	10	45%	44%	32.9	123	3.7	13	.17	3.2	72%	12%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3
UVA Defense	10	49%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.19	1.4	30%	29%	.31	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9
UVA Offense	10	54%	37%	18.5	34.2	221	6.5	12	7	12	.04	1.5	36%	33%	.42	10%	2

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 4.24 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 620.90 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.24 Virginia: -5.385

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.5 Virginia: -10.3

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -5.385 #93
Virginia's Offense Rating: 14.69 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 14.60 #114
2023 Talent Rating: 622.70 #66
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #59
Virginia's 2023 Expected Record: 3.70 - 8.30
Virginia's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.3 #106
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #99

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 33
Virginia 20

Projected Total Points: 53

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 7 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/06	Virginia	20	Duke	27	Virginia -3.5	Duke	58.5	Under
2025	11/15	Duke	17	Virginia	34	Duke -5.5	Virginia	59.5	Under
2023	11/18	Virginia	30	Duke	27	Duke -4	Virginia	48.5	Over
2022	10/01	Duke	38	Virginia	17	Duke -2	Duke	55.0	Push
2021	10/16	Virginia	48	Duke	0	Virginia -10.5	Virginia	69.5	Under
2020	09/26	Virginia	38	Duke	20	Virginia -3.5	Virginia	44.5	Over
2019	10/19	Virginia	48	Duke	14	Virginia -3.5	Virginia	45.0	Over
2018	10/20	Duke	14	Virginia	28	Duke -6.5	Virginia	45.5	Under
2017	10/07	Virginia	28	Duke	21	Duke -1.5	Virginia	53.0	Under
2016	10/01	Duke	20	Virginia	34	Duke -5	Virginia	60.5	Under
2015	11/21	Virginia	42	Duke	34	Virginia -2.5	Virginia	53.5	Over
2014	10/18	Duke	20	Virginia	13	Duke -5	Duke	0
2013	10/19	Virginia	22	Duke	35	Virginia -4	Duke	0
2012	10/06	Duke	42	Virginia	17
2011	11/12	Virginia	31	Duke	21
2010	11/06	Duke	55	Virginia	48
2009	10/31	Virginia	17	Duke	28
2008	09/27	Duke	31	Virginia	3
2007	09/08	Virginia	24	Duke	13
2006	09/30	Duke	0	Virginia	37
2005	09/24	Virginia	38	Duke	7
2004	10/23	Duke	16	Virginia	37
2003	08/30	Virginia	27	Duke	0
2002	10/05	Duke	22	Virginia	27
2001	09/29	Virginia	31	Duke	10
2000	09/15	Duke	10	Virginia	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	18	9	4 Overs
Duke	8	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 10	8 - 5	6 - 5	2 - 0
Road Teams	10 - 16	5 - 8	0 - 2	5 - 6

(#40) DUKE at (#93) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#40	#93
SP+SP+	#29	#106
Perf GradeGrade	#61	#116
OffenseOff	#81	#97
DefenseDef	#43	#128
Spec TeamsST	#49	#112
TalentTal	#67	#66
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#59

Duke Injury Report

Virginia Injury Report

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#128
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#48	#114
SP+SP+	#53	#99
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#61	#129
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#96

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#97
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#62	#127
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#97	#43
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#84	#59
SP+SP+	#95	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#115	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#79	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#58	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#133	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Duke 4.0 (48.5)
Virginia won vs Duke this year (30-27)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Duke last year (34-17)
Virginia beat Duke in 2023 (30-27)

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	95	165	58%	1102	3	3	6.7
Grayson Loftis	91	163	56%	1006	8	4	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Waters	153	819	12	5.4	83
Jaquez Moore	116	674	6	5.8	58
Riley Leonard	58	352	4	6.1	44
Jaylen Coleman	46	165	1	3.6	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	62	835	8	13.5	49
Jalon Calhoun	50	666	4	13.3	69
Sahmir Hagans	30	260	0	8.7	23
Nicky Dalmolin	15	147	0	9.8	21

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Freeman	95	5	2	6	3
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6
Nick Morris Jr.	57	2	1	0	0
Dorian Mausi	56	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aeneas Peebles	42	9	5	4	2
R.J. Oben	15	6	5	5	1
Terry Moore	42	4	3	2	2
Brandon Johnson	49	8	2	3	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)	43	1	0	1	9
Chandler Rivers	47	3	0	1	7
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6

UVA's OC Des Kitchings (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Anthony Colandrea	154	246	63%	1958	13	9	8.0
Tony Muskett (Tr)	93	147	63%	1031	6	5	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Perris Jones	76	393	2	5.2	43
Kobe Pace (Tr)	125	382	1	3.1	22
Mike Hollins	80	274	7	3.4	22
Anthony Colandrea	73	225	0	3.1	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Washington	110	1426	9	13.0	64
Malachi Fields	58	811	5	14.0	39
Kobe Pace (Tr)	19	176	3	9.3	75
Sackett Wood Jr.	9	141	0	15.7	28

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC John Rudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	0	1	11
James Jackson	80	4	1	7	5
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1
Coen King	60	3	0	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Butler	22	5	3	1	0
Ben Smiley III	15	4	2	1	1
Paul Akere	15	3	1	4	0
Kamren Robinson	71	5	1	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Jonas Sanker	107	4	1	11
Dre Walker	11	0	0	5
Coen King	60	3	1	5