Duke at Florida State Game Matchup

Duke Blue Devils at Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Florida State -14.0 (49.0) (-650) Open: -13.5 | 48.5
Florida State 38 - Duke: 20 (ACC)

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU 3rd straight Home Game
Our Line: Florida State -15.5 (SP+ FSU -14)
Projected Score: DUKE: 16 - FSU: 32 (47)
FSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
DUKE Travel: 493 miles

Seminoles (13 - 1) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (21 - 16)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (16 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.6 - 3.4 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
FSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Florida State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sun 9/3	Florida State vs LSU	+2.0	56.5	W 45 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Florida State vs Southern Miss	-31.0	54.0	W 66 - 13	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Florida State at Boston College	-25.5	48.0	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/23	Florida State at Clemson	-2.0	55.5	W 31 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Florida State vs Virginia Tech	-23.5	52.5	W 39 - 17	O	N
Sat 10/14	Florida State vs Syracuse	-18.5	53.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Florida State vs Duke	-14.0	49.0	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/28	Florida State at Wake Forest	-21.0	53.5	W 41 - 16	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Florida State at Pittsburgh	-21.5	50.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Florida State vs Miami	-14.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/18	Florida State vs North Alabama	-35.5
Sat 11/25	Florida State at Florida	-6.0	51.0	W 24 - 15	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Florida State vs Louisville	-3.5	51.0	W 16 - 6	U	Y
Sat 12/30	Florida State vs Georgia	+23.5	47.0	L 3 - 63	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	.24	44%	26.3	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	24.5	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2
FSU	.36	49%	15.4	52%	3.33	214	46%	270	4.32	.15	41%	28	44%	38%	4.08	57.9	1.1	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	28.4	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24
FSU Defense	13	28	22.7	41.4%	4.08	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	56%	43%	44%	38%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	26	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18
FSU Offense	13	15.4	16.4	49%	4.32	1.1	24	484	214	270	5.5	51%	48%	52%	46%	15%	.36

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8
Florida State	13	31:01	24.2	51%	35%	6.6	57.9	1.1	1.4	6	2.9	1	33.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06
FSU Defense	13	56%	44%	-	-	-	-	.16	3.27	73%	11%	0.9

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83
FSU Offense	13	51%	52%	39.2	214.1	5.5	33	.33	3.33	65%	10%	1.11

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3
FSU Defense	13	43%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.17	1.6	34%	28%	.3	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9
FSU Offense	13	48%	46%	19.2	30.4	270.2	8.9	14.1	28	7	.41	1.7	29%	39%	.51	5%	2.2

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 4.24 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 702.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.24 Florida State: 22.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.5 Florida State: 23.7

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Florida State's Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Florida State's Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
2023 Talent Rating: 828.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Florida State's 2023 Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40
Florida State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 758.94
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Florida State 32
Duke 16

Projected Total Points: 47

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 16.4
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Florida State's 2023 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/18	Duke	23	Florida State	16	Duke	Duke -2.5	Duke	43.0	Under
2023	10/21	Florida State	38	Duke	20	Florida State	Florida State -14.0	Florida State	49.0	Over
2020	12/12	Florida State	56	Duke	35	Florida State	Florida State -3	Florida State	56.5	Over
2017	10/14	Duke	10	Florida State	17	Florida State	Florida State -7	NA	45.5	Under
2013	12/07	Florida State	45	Duke	7	Florida State	Florida State -27.5	Florida State	0
2012	10/27	Florida State	48	Duke	7	Florida State
2011	10/15	Duke	16	Florida State	41	Florida State
2007	10/27	Florida State	25	Duke	6	Florida State
2006	10/14	Duke	24	Florida State	51	Florida State
2005	10/22	Duke	24	Florida State	55	Florida State
2004	11/06	Florida State	29	Duke	7	Florida State
2003	09/27	Duke	7	Florida State	56	Florida State
2002	09/21	Florida State	48	Duke	17	Florida State
2001	09/01	Duke	13	Florida State	55	Florida State
2000	10/13	Florida State	63	Duke	14	Florida State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida State	14	3	2 Overs
Duke	1	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	4 - 0	4 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 9	0 - 4	0 - 0	0 - 4

(#40) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 4.24 #40
Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25
Talent Rating: 702.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00

Team Profile

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Duke Ratings Matchup Florida State

Power #40

#10

Off #48

#37

Def #59

Talent #48

#24

SP+ #29

SP+ Off #53

#16

SP+ Def #25

Rematch from Week 8
Florida State -14.0 (49.0)
Florida State won vs Duke this year (38-20)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Florida State last year (23-16)
Florida State beat Duke in 2023 (38-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 66°

Team Information
Injuries: DUKE | FSU
Depth Chart: DUKE | FSU
Rosters: DUKE | FSU

(#10) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 22.38 #10
Offense Rating: 19.82 #37
Defense Rating: -0.10 #7
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.7 #7
Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #16
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3 #7
Talent Rating: 828.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 39 #19
Expected Record: 10.60 - 3.40

Team Profile

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Duke's OC Kevin Johns

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	269	403	67%	2861	21	8	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Riley Leonard	184	906	17	4.9	50
Jordan Waters	95	470	4	4.9	94

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Jordan Waters	15	167	1	11.1	24
Nicky Dalmolin	11	166	2	15.1	71

View Duke's Full Roster

Duke's DC Tyler Santucci

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Michael Reese	44	5	3	0	0
Brandon Johnson	42	5	1	1	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Ryan Smith	22	8	4	2	2
Michael Reese	44	5	3	0	0
Aeneas Peebles	29	6	3	3	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7
Brandon Johnson	42	5	1	1	5

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Tate Rodemaker	98	165	59%	985	7	7	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Campbell	165	860	11	5.2	58
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Rodney Hill	28	184	2	6.6	70
Winston Wright	13	91	0	7.0	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Winston Wright	54	556	8	10.3	65
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
CJ Campbell	40	466	3	11.7	78
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32

View Florida State's Full Roster

Florida State's DC Adam Fuller

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Dennis Briggs Jr.	42	5	4	5	0
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4
Greedy Vance	29	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Dennis Briggs Jr.	42	5	4	5	0
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4
Malcolm Ray	25	3	1	3	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4