UCF at Duke - 2022 Matchup Preview
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UCF Knights vs Duke Blue Devils

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Wednesday, December 28th 2022 (2:00 PM EST)
Duke -3.5 (63.0) (-110)  Open: -2.5 | 61.5
Duke 30 - UCF: 13  (Military Bowl Presented by Peraton)

 
Knights (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Gus Malzahn (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (13 - 35 on Road)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
'22 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
UCF's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1UCF vs South Carolina State-43.5W56–1058.5W56–10OY
Fri 9/9UCF vs Louisville-5.5L14–2062.0L14–20UN
Sat 9/17UCF at Florida Atlantic-7.5W40–1461.5W40–14UY
Sat 9/24UCF vs Georgia Tech-21.0W27–1056.5W27–10UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/5UCF vs SMU-3.0W41–1965.0W41–19UY
Thu 10/13UCF vs Temple-23.5W70–1346.5W70–13OY
Sat 10/22UCF at East Carolina-5.5L13–3463.0L13–34UN
Sat 10/29UCF vs Cincinnati-1.5W25–2155.5W25–21UY
Sat 11/5UCF at Memphis-3.0W35–2860.5W35–28OY
Sat 11/12UCF at Tulane+1.0W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Sat 11/19UCF vs Navy-14.5L14–1753.0L14–17UN
Sat 11/26UCF at South Florida-20.0W46–3967.5W46–39ON
Sat 12/3UCF at Tulane+3.5L28–4557.5L28–45ON
Wed 12/28UCF vs Duke+3.5L13–3063.0L13–30UN
Record: 9–5ATS: 7–7O/U: 6–8Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for UCF's Schedule
Duke's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Duke vs Temple-9.5W30–051.5W30–0UY
Sat 9/10Duke at Northwestern+10.0W31–2356.5W31–23UY
Sat 9/17Duke vs North Carolina A&T-30.5W49–2053.0W49–20ON
Sat 9/24Duke at Kansas+7.5L27–3566.0L27–35UN
Sat 10/1Duke vs Virginia-2.0W38–1755.0W38–17UY
Sat 10/8Duke at Georgia Tech-3.5L20–2354.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/15Duke vs North Carolina+7.0L35–3870.0L35–38OY
Sat 10/22Duke at Miami+10.0W45–2159.0W45–21OY
— Bye Week —
Fri 11/4Duke at Boston College-11.5W38–3147.0W38–31ON
Sat 11/12Duke vs Virginia Tech-10.0W24–750.0W24–7UY
Sat 11/19Duke at Pittsburgh+6.5L26–2849.0L26–28OY
Sat 11/26Duke vs Wake Forest+3.0W34–3167.0W34–31UY
Wed 12/28Duke vs UCF-3.5W30–1363.0W30–13UY
Record: 9–4ATS: 9–4O/U: 5–8Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2021)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF.2343%24.346%3.1919640%2064.44.1640%23.643%38%3.5153.51.21.8
DUKE.1843%34.643%3.1518043%2383.07.3847%29.448%47%4.7761.71.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UCF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Offense1324.312.842.9%4.441.2204021962065.451%49%46%40%16%.23
DUKE Defense1229.431.346.7%4.771.2 - - - - - 49%49%48%47%16%.38
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UCF Defense1323.634.640.4%3.511.8 - - - - - 47%53%43%38%19%.16
DUKE Offense1234.632.242.8%3.071.8224181802384.153%46%43%43%16%.18

Additional Stats 2021
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
UCF1328:3519.937%79%6.253.51.21.86.82.8031.2
Duke1229:1821.842%38%6.561.71.81.251.8228.6
Run Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Offense1351%46%36.6196.35.427.263.1975%11%1.14
DUKE Defense1249%48% - - - - .253.2878%10%1.02
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UCF Defense1347%43% - - - - .22.9666%11%1.13
DUKE Offense1253%43%43.7180.34.122.133.1576%11%1.02

Pass Game Stats (2022)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Offense1349%40%19.430206.26.910.6299.191.632%33%.465%2.2
DUKE Defense1249%47% - - - - - - 8.561.933%40%.647%2.2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UCF Defense1353%38% - - - - - - 11.131.433%30%.328%2
DUKE Offense1246%43%22.134.2237.9710.899.281.532%29%.255%1.8

UCF's Power Ratings
UCF's Power Rating: NR
UCF's Offense Rating: NR
UCF's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
UCF's 2022 Expected Record: -
UCF's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.3  #35
UCF's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1  #55
UCF's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #32

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 716.1

Power Ratings Matchup
UCF:    Duke: 2.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
UCF: 10.3   Duke: 5.0




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.5 NR
Duke's Offense Rating: NR
Duke's Defense Rating: NR
2022 Talent Rating:  #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Duke's 2022 Expected Record: -
Duke's 2022 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.0  #55
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4  #61
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.7  #49

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 716.1


UCF Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.8
Defense: 23.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.6

UCF's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 31
UCF 25

Projected Total Points: 56
Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2022 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202212/28Duke30UCF13Duke -3.5Duke63.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke110 Overs
UCF001 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

UCF Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Military Bowl UCF vs Duke+3.563.0L 13 - 30
2021Gasparilla Bowl UCF vs Florida+7.056.0W 29 - 17
2020Raton Bowl UCF vs BYU+6.080.0L 23 - 49
2019Gasparilla Bowl UCF vs Marshall-16.060.0W 48 - 25
2018Fiesta Bowl UCF vs LSU+7.557.5L 32 - 40
2017Peach Bowl UCF vs Auburn+9.567.0W 34 - 27
2016Cure Bowl UCF vs Arkansas State+6.551.0L 13 - 31
Duke Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2022Military Bowl Duke vs UCF-3.563.0W 30 - 13
2018Independence Bowl Duke vs Temple+3.556.5W 56 - 27
2017Lane Bowl Duke vs Northern Illinois-4.548.0W 36 - 14
  
(#) UCF at (#) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUCFDUKE
Game ControlGC #42 #116
Momentum ControlMC #105 #144
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #35 #55
Perf GradeGrade #40 #49
OffenseOff #22 #53
DefenseDef #80 #55
Spec TeamsST #59 #51
TalentTal #53 #62
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
UCF on Offense
CategoryCat
UCF OffDUKE Def
Game ControlGC #54 #113
Momentum ControlMC #71 #145
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #22 #55
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #55 #49
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
UCF Run Game
CategoryCat
UCF OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #59 #57
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #20 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #76
UCF Pass Game
CategoryCat
UCF OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #32 #84
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #3 #31
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Duke on Offense
CategoryCatDUKE OffUCF Def
Game ControlGC #121 #37
Momentum ControlMC #130 #109
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #53 #80
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #61 #32
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Duke Run Game
CategoryCat
DUKE OffUCF Def
Run GameRun #50 #67
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #39 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #92
Duke Pass Game
CategoryCatDUKE OffUCF Def
Pass GamePass #69 #79
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #52 #104
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'22 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

UCF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'22 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 1
Duke -3.5 (63.0)
Duke won vs UCF this year (30-13)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UCF's OC Chip Lindsey (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View UCF's Full Roster

UCF's DC David Gibbs (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Robb Smith (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD