Pittsburgh at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview
Pittsburgh logo Pittsburgh Panthers at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Duke -4.5 (40.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Duke 30 - Pittsburgh: 19  (ACC)

 
Panthers (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (63 - 43)
Avg Score : 20 - 27 (14 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
DUKE is playing their 7th straight game
PITT is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Duke -13.5  (SP+ DUKE -16)
Projected Score: PITT: 16 - DUKE: 29 (45)
DUKE Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
PITT Travel: 313 miles
Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 19 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Pittsburgh's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Pittsburgh vs Wofford-37.549.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 9/9 Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati-6.544.5L 21 - 27ON
Sat 9/16 Pittsburgh at West Virginia+2.548.0L 6 - 17UN
Sat 9/23 Pittsburgh vs North Carolina+7.049.5L 24 - 41ON
Sat 9/30 Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech-3.040.0L 21 - 38ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Pittsburgh vs Louisville+7.544.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Pittsburgh at Wake Forest-3.045.0L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/28 Pittsburgh at Notre Dame+21.045.5L 7 - 58ON
Sat 11/4 Pittsburgh vs Florida State+21.550.0L 7 - 24UY
Sat 11/11 Pittsburgh vs Syracuse-4.537.5L 13 - 28ON
Thu 11/16 Pittsburgh vs Boston College-1.047.0W 24 - 16UY
Sat 11/25 Pittsburgh at Duke+4.540.5L 19 - 30ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule
Duke's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/4 Duke vs Clemson+12.554.0W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Duke vs Lafayette-42.549.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Duke vs Northwestern-17.048.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 Duke at UConn-22.045.0W 41 - 7OY
Sat 9/30 Duke vs Notre Dame+5.552.5L 14 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Duke vs NC State-3.544.0W 24 - 3UY
Sat 10/21 Duke at Florida State+14.049.0L 20 - 38ON
Sat 10/28 Duke at Louisville+5.047.0L 0 - 23UN
Thu 11/2 Duke vs Wake Forest-6.541.0W 24 - 21ON
Sat 11/11 Duke at North Carolina+9.552.5L 45 - 47OY
Sat 11/18 Duke at Virginia-4.048.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/25 Duke vs Pittsburgh-4.540.5W 30 - 19OY
Sat 12/23 Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#119 (.09)38% (113)20.241% (90)2.86 (109)10235% (117)2163.46 (98)#23 (.11)39% (39)27.339% (32)41% (67)3.41 (33)64.41.81.3
DUKE#64 (.2)42% (69)26.942% (77)3.1 (70)16742% (66)1814.27 (31)#52 (.16)43% (86)1943% (69)44% (101)3.47 (43)461.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PITT#91 (.15)42% (85)45% (56)3.1 (53)11939% (97)2564.11 (49)#35 (.12)38% (25)38% (20)38% (38)3.68 (57)58.21.31.2
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Offense1220.21437.7%3.461.8163181022163.445%54%41%35%19%.09
DUKE Defense131913.143.3%3.471.2 - - - - - 49%50%43%44%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PITT Defense1227.332.839.4%3.411.3 - - - - - 58%41%39%41%18%.11
DUKE Offense1326.928.642%4.271.2193481671814.852%47%42%42%13%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Pittsburgh1227:3616.331%50%7.864.41.81.36.92.5226.7
Duke1328:5918.736%60%5.6461.21.25.52.1131.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Offense1245% (100)41% (90)29.7101.93.410 (124).06 (118)2.86 (109)75% (52)11% (94)0.89 (117)
DUKE Defense1349% (53)43% (69) - - - - .11 (46)3.18 (90)68% (39)10% (82)0.96 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PITT Defense1258% (131)39% (32) - - - - .03 (17)2.91 (37)62% (16)12% (18)0.98 (57)
DUKE Offense1352% (47)42% (77)34.5166.84.826 (30).17 (56)3.1 (70)66% (114)8% (20)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Offense1254% (34)35% (117)16302167.213.517 (85)12 (85).16 (109)1.7 (36)34% (103)24% (122).17 (114)8% (123)2.2 (26)
DUKE Defense1350% (83)44% (101) - - - - - - 10 (67).22 (42)1.4 (3)31% (86)31% (78).3 (64)6% (56)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PITT Defense1241% (3)41% (67) - - - - - - 10 (67).27 (67)1.7 (103)32% (58)30% (75).29 (58)6% (85)2.2 (111)
DUKE Offense1347% (84)42% (66)15.427.5180.86.611.814 (106)8 (30).24 (79)1.4 (122)33% (88)31% (65).4 (43)6% (62)2 (95)

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: -1.44  #72
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 11.42  #115
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 6.46  #35
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 11%  #43
Pittsburgh's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Pittsburgh's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9  #86
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6  #106
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: -1.44   Duke: 9.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: -6.9   Duke: 9.5




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.37  #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55  #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88  #59
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 20.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 14
Defense: 27.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Pittsburgh's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 29
Pittsburgh 16

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 34
Pittsburgh 18

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Duke 29
Pittsburgh 17

Total Points: 46
Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.1

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/25Duke30Pittsburgh19Duke -4.5Duke40.5Over
202211/19Pittsburgh28Duke26Pittsburgh -6.5Duke49.0Over
202111/06Duke29Pittsburgh54Pittsburgh -21Pittsburgh64.5Over
201910/05Duke30Pittsburgh33Duke -3.5Pittsburgh48.5Over
201810/27Pittsburgh54Duke45Duke -3Pittsburgh46.0Over
201710/21Duke17Pittsburgh24Duke -9Pittsburgh49.5Under
201611/19Pittsburgh56Duke14Pittsburgh -6.5Pittsburgh61.5Over
201511/14Duke13Pittsburgh31Duke -4Pittsburgh49.0Under
201411/01Pittsburgh48Duke51Pittsburgh -2.5Duke0
201309/21Duke55Pittsburgh58Pittsburgh -6Duke0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke246 Overs
Pittsburgh862 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 64 - 62 - 52 - 1
Road Teams6 - 46 - 41 - 25 - 2

(#72) PITT at (#40) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPITTDUKE
Power RatePwr #72 #40
SP+SP+ #86 #29
Perf GradeGrade #117 #61
OffenseOff #127 #81
DefenseDef #85 #43
Spec TeamsST #73 #49
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #43 #69
Pittsburgh on Offense
CategoryCat
PITT OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #127 #43
SuccessSuc #113 #86
ExplosiveExp #66 #12
PPAPPA #119 #52
PowerPwr #115 #59
SP+SP+ #106 #25
Pts POPPO #98 #43
HavocHav #114 #71
Pittsburgh Run Game
CategoryCat
PITT OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #77 #71
Run SuccessRSuc #90 #69
Run ExplRExp #117 #43
PPAExp #118 #46
Run BlockR Blk #134 -
OL YdsOLY #109 #90
Stuff RateStuff #101 #65
TackleTak -  #89
Pittsburgh Pass Game
CategoryCat
PITT OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #124 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #117 #101
Pass ExplPExl #36 #3
PPAExp #109 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #93 #51
F7 HavocF7 #94 #82
DB HavocDB #123 #56
Duke on Offense
CategoryCatDUKE OffPITT Def
Perf GradePerf #81 #85
SuccessSuc #69 #39
ExplosiveExp #93 #74
PPAPPA #64 #23
PowerPwr #48 #35
SP+SP+ #53 #58
Pts POPPO #31 #33
HavocHav #22 #36
Duke Run Game
CategoryCat
DUKE OffPITT Def
Run GameRun #61 #57
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #32
Run ExplRExp #30 #57
PPAExp #56 #17
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #70 #37
Stuff RateStuff #99 #16
TackleTak -  #85
Duke Pass Game
CategoryCatDUKE OffPITT Def
Pass GamePass #64 #83
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #67
Pass ExplPExl #122 #103
PPAExp #79 #67
Pass Block/RushP Blk #62 #121
F7 HavocF7 #20 #18
DB HavocDB #62 #85
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

PITT 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 49° - Wind: 11 mph
Rematch from Week 13
Duke -4.5 (40.5)
Duke won vs Pittsburgh this year (30-19)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (30-19)
Pittsburgh beat Duke in 2022 (28-26)

  
PITT's OC Frank Cignetti Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)9418451%1179786.4
Phil Jurkovec (Tr)5711251%818637.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Hammond Jr.11854744.666
C'Bo Flemister9836723.738
Daniel Carter2813424.822
Kenny Johnson107207.214
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jerrod Means41721617.675
Konata Mumpfield44576513.182
Gavin Bartholomew18326118.160
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)28316011.331

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donovan McMillon (Tr)1051001
Javon Mcintyre854007
Solomon Deshields588241
Bangally Kamara537251
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Samuel Okunlola186500
Shayne Simon488552
Dayon Hayes4511464
Bam Brima314341
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
M.J. Devonshire3210010
Javon Mcintyre854007
Dayon Hayes4511464

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard9516558%1102336.7
Grayson Loftis9116356%1006846.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Waters153819125.483
Jaquez Moore11667465.858
Riley Leonard5835246.144
Jaylen Coleman4616513.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore62835813.549
Jalon Calhoun50666413.369
Sahmir Hagans3026008.723
Nicky Dalmolin1514709.821

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Freeman955263
Jaylen Stinson793106
Nick Morris Jr.572100
Dorian Mausi564112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aeneas Peebles429542
R.J. Oben156551
Terry Moore424322
Brandon Johnson498234
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)431019
Chandler Rivers473017
Jaylen Stinson793106