Pittsburgh at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 25th 2023 (12:00 PM EST)
Duke -4.5 (40.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Duke 30 - Pittsburgh: 19 (ACC)

Panthers (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Pat Narduzzi (63 - 43)
Avg Score : 34 - 25 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.9 - 7.1 (#100)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE is playing their 7th straight game
PITT is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Duke -13.5 (SP+ DUKE -16)
Projected Score: PITT: 19 - DUKE: 32 (51)
DUKE Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
PITT Travel: 313 miles

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PITT Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Pittsburgh's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Pittsburgh vs Wofford	-37.5	49.5	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/9	Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati	-6.5	44.5	L 21 - 27	O	N
Sat 9/16	Pittsburgh at West Virginia	+2.5	48.0	L 6 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/23	Pittsburgh vs North Carolina	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 9/30	Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech	-3.0	40.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Pittsburgh vs Louisville	+7.5	44.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Pittsburgh at Wake Forest	-3.0	45.0	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/28	Pittsburgh at Notre Dame	+21.0	45.5	L 7 - 58	O	N
Sat 11/4	Pittsburgh vs Florida State	+21.5	50.0	L 7 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	-4.5	37.5	L 13 - 28	O	N
Thu 11/16	Pittsburgh vs Boston College	-1.0	47.0	W 24 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Pittsburgh at Duke	+4.5	40.5	L 19 - 30	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Pittsburgh's Schedule

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT	.18	43%	33.7	46%	3.21	183	41%	222	3.84	.06	36%	24.8	36%	37%	3.62	63.7	1.5	2.2
DUKE	.24	44%	34.6	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	29.4	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PITT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Offense	13	33.7	33	43.4%	3.84	1.5	21	405	183	222	4.6	55%	44%	46%	41%	16%	.18
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	31.3	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PITT Defense	13	24.8	24.6	36.3%	3.62	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	42%	57%	36%	37%	22%	.06
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	32.2	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Pittsburgh	13	33:14	21.5	39%	50%	7.4	63.7	1.5	2.2	6.4	3.6	5	30.7
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Offense	13	55%	46%	40.2	183.1	4.6	30	.18	3.21	78%	10%	1.05
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PITT Defense	13	42%	36%	-	-	-	-	.08	2.61	76%	12%	1.16
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Offense	13	44%	41%	17.2	30.2	222.2	7.4	13	13	11	.26	1.6	31%	32%	.31	6%	1.9
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PITT Defense	13	57%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.08	1.6	39%	29%	.29	10%	2.1
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3

Pittsburgh's Power Ratings
Pittsburgh's Power Rating: -1.44 #72
Pittsburgh's Offense Rating: 11.42 #115
Pittsburgh's Defense Rating: 6.46 #35
2023 Talent Rating: 700.42 #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 11% #43
Pittsburgh's 2023 Expected Record: 4.90 - 7.10
Pittsburgh's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Pittsburgh's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.6 #106
Pittsburgh's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: -1.44 Duke: 9.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Pittsburgh: -6.9 Duke: 9.5

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.37 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 620.90 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Pittsburgh Scoring
Offense: 33.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 24.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 24.6

Pittsburgh's 2023 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 32
Pittsburgh 19

Projected Total Points: 51

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	11/25	Duke	30	Pittsburgh	19	Duke -4.5	Duke	40.5	Over
2022	11/19	Pittsburgh	28	Duke	26	Pittsburgh -6.5	Duke	49.0	Over
2021	11/06	Duke	29	Pittsburgh	54	Pittsburgh -21	Pittsburgh	64.5	Over
2019	10/05	Duke	30	Pittsburgh	33	Duke -3.5	Pittsburgh	48.5	Over
2018	10/27	Pittsburgh	54	Duke	45	Duke -3	Pittsburgh	46.0	Over
2017	10/21	Duke	17	Pittsburgh	24	Duke -9	Pittsburgh	49.5	Under
2016	11/19	Pittsburgh	56	Duke	14	Pittsburgh -6.5	Pittsburgh	61.5	Over
2015	11/14	Duke	13	Pittsburgh	31	Duke -4	Pittsburgh	49.0	Under
2014	11/01	Pittsburgh	48	Duke	51	Pittsburgh -2.5	Duke	0
2013	09/21	Duke	55	Pittsburgh	58	Pittsburgh -6	Duke	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	2	4	6 Overs
Pittsburgh	8	6	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 6	4 - 6	2 - 5	2 - 1
Road Teams	6 - 4	6 - 4	1 - 2	5 - 2

(#72) PITT at (#40) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PITT	DUKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#72	#40
SP+SP+	#86	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#61
OffenseOff	#127	#81
DefenseDef	#85	#43
Spec TeamsST	#73	#49
TalentTal	#39	#67
Blue ChipsBC%	#43	#69

Pittsburgh Injury Report

Duke Injury Report

Pittsburgh on Offense


CategoryCat	PITT Off	DUKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#127	#43
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#115	#59
SP+SP+	#106	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Pittsburgh Run Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#77	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#134	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

Pittsburgh Pass Game


CategoryCat	PITT Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#124	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#93	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	PITT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#85
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#48	#35
SP+SP+	#53	#58
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	PITT Def
Run GameRun	#61	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#85

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	PITT Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#83
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#62	#121
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

PITT 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Duke -4.5 (40.5)
Duke won vs Pittsburgh this year (30-19)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Pittsburgh in 2023 (30-19)

PITT's OC Frank Cignetti Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Christian Veilleux (Tr)	94	184	51%	1179	7	8	6.4
Phil Jurkovec (Tr)	57	112	51%	818	6	3	7.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rodney Hammond Jr.	118	547	4	4.6	66
C'Bo Flemister	98	367	2	3.7	38
Daniel Carter	28	134	2	4.8	22
Kenny Johnson	10	72	0	7.2	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jerrod Means	41	721	6	17.6	75
Konata Mumpfield	44	576	5	13.1	82
Gavin Bartholomew	18	326	1	18.1	60
Daejon Reynolds (Tr)	28	316	0	11.3	31

View Pittsburgh's Full Roster

PITT's DC Randy Bates (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donovan McMillon (Tr)	105	1	0	0	1
Javon Mcintyre	85	4	0	0	7
Solomon Deshields	58	8	2	4	1
Bangally Kamara	53	7	2	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Samuel Okunlola	18	6	5	0	0
Shayne Simon	48	8	5	5	2
Dayon Hayes	45	11	4	6	4
Bam Brima	31	4	3	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
M.J. Devonshire	32	1	0	0	10
Javon Mcintyre	85	4	0	0	7
Dayon Hayes	45	11	4	6	4

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	95	165	58%	1102	3	3	6.7
Grayson Loftis	91	163	56%	1006	8	4	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Waters	153	819	12	5.4	83
Jaquez Moore	116	674	6	5.8	58
Riley Leonard	58	352	4	6.1	44
Jaylen Coleman	46	165	1	3.6	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	62	835	8	13.5	49
Jalon Calhoun	50	666	4	13.3	69
Sahmir Hagans	30	260	0	8.7	23
Nicky Dalmolin	15	147	0	9.8	21

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Freeman	95	5	2	6	3
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6
Nick Morris Jr.	57	2	1	0	0
Dorian Mausi	56	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aeneas Peebles	42	9	5	4	2
R.J. Oben	15	6	5	5	1
Terry Moore	42	4	3	2	2
Brandon Johnson	49	8	2	3	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)	43	1	0	1	9
Chandler Rivers	47	3	0	1	7
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6