Duke at Miami - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Duke Blue Devils at Miami Hurricanes

Miami logo
Saturday, November 14th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (18 - 9)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.8 - 5.2 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 6) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 4)
DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
MIAMI is playing their 5th straight game
DUKE is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Miami -20  (SP+ MIAMI -14)
Projected Score: DUKE: 18 - MIAMI: 38 (56)
MIAMI Win prob: 93% | Cover: 53%
DUKE Travel: 698 miles
Hurricanes (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mario Cristobal (35 - 19)
Avg Score : 31 - 15 (36 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10.8 - 1.2 (#4)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
 
Duke's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Duke vs Tulane-8
Sat 9/12 Duke at Illinois+8.5
Sat 9/19 Duke vs Stanford-14.5
Sat 9/26 Duke vs William & Mary-30.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10 Duke at Georgia Tech+4.5
Sat 10/17 Duke vs North Carolina-10
Fri 10/23 Duke at Virginia+6.5
Sat 10/31 Duke vs Boston College-12.5
Fri 11/6 Duke at NC State+4
Sat 11/14 Duke at Miami+20
Sat 11/21 Duke vs Clemson+1.5
Sat 11/28 Duke at Wake Forest+3

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Miami's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/4 Miami at Stanford-26.5
Thu 9/10 Miami vs Florida A&M-48
Fri 9/18 Miami at Wake Forest-14.5
Sat 9/26 Miami vs Central Michigan-35
Sat 10/3 Miami at Clemson-10.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Miami vs Florida State-19
Sat 10/24 Miami vs Pittsburgh-17.5
Sat 10/31 Miami at North Carolina-22.5
Sat 11/7 Miami at Notre Dame+5
Sat 11/14 Miami vs Duke-20
Fri 11/20 Miami vs Virginia Tech-27.5
Sat 11/28 Miami vs Boston College-30

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#25 (.25)46% (30)34.645% (51)2.8 (99)13847% (20)2854.32 (26)#116 (.23)44% (98)29.443% (73)46% (119)4.39 (129)62.711.7
MIAMI#35 (.22)46% (23)30.945% (58)3.13 (35)14549% (10)2394.36 (24)#14 (.05)37% (15)14.836% (10)38% (28)2.51 (5)53.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MIAMI0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1434.63746%4.321234241382854.344%55%45%47%15%.25
MIAMI Defense1614.811.836.6%2.511.6 - - - - - 43%55%36%38%19%.05
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1429.427.543.8%4.391.7 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%17%.23
MIAMI Offense1630.936.146.4%4.360.9213841452394.350%48%45%49%12%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1429:4322.539%74%6.462.711.76.71.9331.3
Miami1631:3520.948%67%6.653.50.91.662.9330.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1444% (112)45% (51)32.4138.24.326 (60).08 (85)2.8 (99)69% (85)10% (79)0.97 (65)
MIAMI Defense1643% (4)36% (10) - - - - .01 (16)2.58 (14)73% (80)12% (15)1.01 (94)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1448% (49)43% (73) - - - - .1 (68)2.62 (19)73% (85)12% (14)1.03 (101)
MIAMI Offense1650% (62)45% (58)33.9144.94.326 (40).09 (76)3.13 (35)83% (4)6% (4)0.8 (128)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1455% (21)47% (20)2436.1285.47.911.934 (14)6 (7).39 (24)1.6 (44)30% (39)33% (37).4 (30)6% (55)2.2 (13)
MIAMI Defense1655% (131)38% (28) - - - - - - 16 (55).13 (21)1.5 (29)36% (13)28% (50).21 (29)7% (15)1.9 (29)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1450% (86)46% (119) - - - - - - 14 (22).41 (125)1.6 (107)32% (56)34% (123).44 (128)6% (86)2 (77)
MIAMI Offense1648% (79)49% (10)2129238.78.211.431 (61)11 (108).43 (13)1.5 (88)26% (8)32% (44).37 (42)6% (65)2.1 (59)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 7.56  #48
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.54  #29
Duke's Defense Rating: 15.98  #69
2026 Talent Rating: 818.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #64
Duke's 2026 Expected Record: 6.8 - 5.2
Duke's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6  #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2  #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 7.56   Miami: 26.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.6   Miami: 20.7




Miami's Power Ratings
Miami's Power Rating: 26.96  #5
Miami's Offense Rating: 26.12  #7
Miami's Defense Rating: 0.15  #5
2026 Talent Rating: 1042.00  #10
Blue Chip Ratio: 60  #6
Miami's 2026 Expected Record: 10.8 - 1.2
Miami's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 20.7  #9
Miami's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.2  #22
Miami's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.3  #7

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 905.41
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami 38
Duke 18

Projected Total Points: 56
Miami Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.1
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.8

Miami's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/02Miami53Duke31Miami -21Miami55.5Over
202210/22Miami21Duke45Miami -10Duke59.0Over
202111/27Duke10Miami47Miami -20.5Miami67.0Under
202012/05Duke0Miami48Miami -14.5Miami62.0Under
201911/30Duke27Miami17Miami -9.5Duke44.0Push
201811/03Miami12Duke20Miami -9.5Duke51.0Under
201709/29Duke6Miami31Miami -5.5Miami55.5Under
201611/26Miami40Duke21Miami -14Miami55.0Over
201510/31Duke27Miami30Duke -8Miami51.5Over
201409/27Miami22Duke10Miami -5.5Miami0
201311/16Duke48Miami30Miami -3Duke0
201211/24Duke45Miami52
201111/05Miami49Duke14
201010/16Duke13Miami28
200911/21Miami34Duke16
200810/18Duke31Miami49
200709/29Miami24Duke14
200610/21Duke15Miami20
200510/08Miami52Duke7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami1574 Overs
Duke444 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 105 - 63 - 32 - 3
Road Teams10 - 96 - 53 - 23 - 3

(#48) DUKE at (#5) MIAMI
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKEMIAMI
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #48 #5
SP+SP+ #44 #9
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #55 #10
Blue ChipsBC% #64 #6
Duke Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Solid, Diaz won ACC, Mensah loss a blow
(2/7) DC Patke? Def has gotten worse each year
(2/6) QB Eget (SJSU) still needs waiver to play in '26
(2/6) RB Sheppard back, one of ACC's best in '25
(2/6) WR lots of ? Two G5/FCS adds only w real exp
(2/6) TE Hasley a good weapon and really good blocker
(2/6) OL has 2 back, added 2 starters. Looks decent
(2/6) DL has ?, lots of limited exp, nothing obvious
(2/6) LBs good unit w Mergott. Have some depth
(2/6) DBs torched in '25, added 5 portals, lots of exp
Duke Injury Report
Miami Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Highest, CFP run, QB Mensah + talent
(2/7) Has never won ACC since joining in 2004
(1/29) OL experience is #120 in CFB, near last in P4
(1/28) QB Mensah, WR Toney, Barkate w great depth
(1/28) RB Fletcher a beast, depth w Pringle + Brown
(1/28) OL biggest ? esp at OT. Have talent but unproven
(1/28) DL front line dominant again, depth will develop
(1/28) CBs are both back, LB has ? beyond Toure
Miami Injury Report
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffMIAMI Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #30 #15
ExplosiveExp #30 #81
PPAPPA #25 #14
PowerPwr #29 #5
SP+SP+ #19 #7
Pts POPPO #26 #5
HavocHav #67 #13
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffMIAMI Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #10
Run ExplRExp #65 #94
PPAExp #85 #16
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #99 #14
Stuff RateStuff #115 #49
TackleTak - NR
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffMIAMI Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #28
Pass ExplPExl #44 #29
PPAExp #24 #21
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #79 #15
DB HavocDB #55 #15
Miami on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffDUKE Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #23 #98
ExplosiveExp #126 #120
PPAPPA #35 #116
PowerPwr #7 #69
SP+SP+ #22 #86
Pts POPPO #24 #129
HavocHav #13 #36
Miami Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MIAMI OffDUKE Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #58 #73
Run ExplRExp #128 #101
PPAExp #76 #68
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #35 #19
Stuff RateStuff #16 #11
TackleTak - NR
Miami Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMIAMI OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #10 #119
Pass ExplPExl #88 #107
PPAExp #13 #125
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #4 #14
DB HavocDB #65 #86
Program Comparison
MIAMI 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hard Rock Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Miami beat Duke in 2024 (53-31)

  
DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Walker Eget (Tr)23239359%30581797.8
Ari Patu (Tr)489551%517545.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard2001132115.760
Ari Patu (Tr)4413313.025
CJ Campbell2211905.422
Walker Eget (Tr)339602.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jared Richardson (Tr)8010331212.976
Javen Nicholas (Tr)60740512.364
Jeremiah Hasley40454611.456
Nate Sheppard3728617.720

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Mergott918293
DaShawn Stone862013
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003
Landan Callahan420002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elliott Schaper162200
Luke Mergott918293
Kendall Johnson373142
Tyshon Reed233110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dylan Flowers (Tr)331004
Luke Mergott918293
Patrick Smith-Young (Tr)701003

MIAMI's OC Shannon Dawson (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)33450067%39733467.9
Malachi Toney4757%822011.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Fletcher Jr.2161192125.557
CharMar Brown12246073.813
Girard Pringle Jr.6237546.038
Malachi Toney2311314.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Toney10912111011.161
Cooper Barkate (Tr)721106715.477
Vandrevious Jacobs32548417.174
Cam Vaughn (Tr)35540415.446

View Miami's Full Roster

MIAMI's DC Corey Hetherman (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Toure843216
Omar Thornton (Tr)828211
Zechariah Poyser683115
Xavier Lucas452118
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Damon Wilson Jr.2299132
Ahmad Moten319540
Marquise Lightfoot256361
Armondo Blount173361
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Xavier Lucas452118
OJ Frederique Jr.190007
Mohamed Toure843216