SMU at Duke - 2024 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
SMU -11.5 (49.5) (-460)  Open: -12.5 | 49.0
SMU 28 - Duke: 27  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
SMU 3rd straight Road Game
DUKE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: SMU -10  (SP+ SMU -12)

Projected Score: SMU: 30 - DUKE: 20 (51)
SMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
SMU Travel: 1039 miles, 1 hrs behind
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 4)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24UN
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian-32.5
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42OY
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16OY
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28ON
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 7, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)36.544% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)22.139% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)26.335% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)24.541% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#38 (.24)44% (53)44% (62)2.97 (83)16944% (45)2634.41 (25)#5 (.03)37% (9)39% (35)35% (10)3.09 (13)77.71.71.6
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52944.1%4.411.7234321692634.451%49%44%44%15%.24
DUKE Defense1324.519.337.6%3.192 - - - - - 52%48%41%34%23%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.236.7%3.091.6 - - - - - 44%55%39%35%18%.03
DUKE Offense1326.325.738.6%3.71.416315892263.344%56%35%42%19%.12

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1428:2822.644%50%8.177.71.71.66.63.1331.1
Duke1325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.2131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1451% (65)44% (62)38.3168.94.429 (18).12 (77)2.97 (83)70% (90)9% (49)0.93 (86)
DUKE Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1444% (9)39% (35) - - - - -.05 (2)2.72 (25)60% (10)11% (36)0.81 (6)
DUKE Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (70)44% (45)19.931.2262.98.413.228 (15)12 (85).37 (19)1.8 (11)33% (94)34% (34).47 (17)6% (69)2.3 (13)
DUKE Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1455% (124)35% (10) - - - - - - 16 (10).11 (17)1.7 (107)37% (7)27% (21).16 (12)7% (30)2.1 (96)
DUKE Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59  #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91  #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06  #5
2024 Talent Rating: 734.00  #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8%  #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5  #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2  #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1  #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59   Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5   Duke: 5.6




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10  #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83  #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00  #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6  #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 30
Duke 20


Total Points: 51

Based on Last 4 Games
SMU 30
Duke 23

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
SMU 28
Duke 24

Total Points: 52
Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Duke27SMU28SMU -11.5Duke49.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke011 Overs
SMU100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#13) SMU at (#50) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatSMUDUKE
Power RatePwr #13 #50
SP+SP+ #12 #44
Perf GradeGrade #14 #59
OffenseOff #30 #90
DefenseDef #13 #25
Spec TeamsST #84 #68
TalentTal #47 #56
Blue ChipsBC% #47 #65

Duke Notes
(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
SMU on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
SMU OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #30 #25
SuccessSuc #53 #16
ExplosiveExp #21 #22
PPAPPA #38 #10
PowerPwr #28 #17
SP+SP+ #5 #31
Pts POPPO #25 #17
HavocHav #46 #2
SMU Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
SMU OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #74 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #62 #51
Run ExplRExp #86 #38
PPAExp #77 #35
Run BlockR Blk #47 -
OL YdsOLY #83 #28
Stuff RateStuff #57 #16
TackleTak -  #73
SMU Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
SMU OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #10 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #45 #5
Pass ExplPExl #11 #39
PPAExp #19 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #33 #37
F7 HavocF7 #49 #2
DB HavocDB #69 #28
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatDUKE OffSMU Def
Perf GradePerf #90 #13
SuccessSuc #116 #9
ExplosiveExp #84 #69
PPAPPA #109 #5
PowerPwr #113 #5
SP+SP+ #71 #30
Pts POPPO #90 #13
HavocHav #115 #29
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffSMU Def
Run GameRun #122 #10
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #35
Run ExplRExp #131 #6
PPAExp #133 #2
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #25
Stuff RateStuff #130 #27
TackleTak -  #43
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatDUKE OffSMU Def
Pass GamePass #59 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #10
Pass ExplPExl #56 #107
PPAExp #55 #17
Pass Block/RushP Blk #68 #15
F7 HavocF7 #78 #36
DB HavocDB #129 #30
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70°
Rematch from Week 9
SMU 11.5 (49.5)
SMU won at Duke this year (28-27)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Duke last year (28-27)

  
SMU's OC Casey Woods (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Roderick Daniels4416033.613
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Roderick Daniels42601414.381
Keyshawn Smith33527516.045
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Kelvontay Dixon21386118.487

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC Scott Symons (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobe Wilson1026341
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmad Walker888143
Ahmaad Moses646003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
Elijah Roberts32107101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jonathan McGill522016
Brandon Crossley301016
Deuce Harmon (Tr)282006

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore55861815.758
Eli Pancol60798913.386
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)1004142
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Terry Moore717105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Vincent Anthony25105133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Stinson674238
Chandler Rivers548138
Joshua Pickett384007