SMU at Duke - 2024 Matchup Preview
SMU logo SMU Mustangs at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
SMU -11.5 (49.5) (-460)  Open: -12.5 | 49.0
SMU 28 - Duke: 27  (ACC)

 
Mustangs (11 - 3) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rhett Lashlee (18 - 10)
Avg Score : 37 - 22 (29 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
SMU 3rd straight Road Game
DUKE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: SMU -10   (SP+ SMU -12)

Projected Score: SMU: 30 - DUKE: 20 (55)
SMU Win prob: 77% | Cover: 45%
SMU Travel: 1039 miles, 1 hrs behind
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
 
SMU's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 SMU at Nevada-28.055.5W 29 - 24UN
Sat 8/31 SMU vs Houston Christian-32.5
Fri 9/6 SMU vs BYU-12.555.5L 15 - 18UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 SMU vs TCU+1.058.5W 66 - 42OY
Sat 9/28 SMU vs Florida State-6.046.0W 42 - 16OY
Sat 10/5 SMU at Louisville+6.555.0W 34 - 27OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 SMU at Stanford-16.552.5W 40 - 10UY
Sat 10/26 SMU at Duke-11.549.5W 28 - 27ON
Sat 11/2 SMU vs Pittsburgh-7.055.5W 48 - 25OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 SMU vs Boston College-19.054.5W 38 - 28ON
Sat 11/23 SMU at Virginia-11.554.5W 33 - 7UY
Sat 11/30 SMU vs California-11.554.5W 38 - 6UY
Sat 12/7 SMU vs Clemson-2.556.5L 31 - 34ON
Sat 12/21 SMU at Penn State+9.052.5L 10 - 38UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 7, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for SMU's Schedule
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU#24 (.28)44% (46)36.547% (30)3.21 (49)17742% (67)2784.51 (21)#7 (.04)36% (10)22.137% (17)35% (8)3.59 (51)40.80.91.2
DUKE#64 (.2)42% (69)26.342% (77)3.1 (70)16742% (66)1814.27 (31)#52 (.16)43% (86)24.543% (69)44% (101)3.47 (43)461.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
SMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Offense1436.52943.9%4.510.9244551772784.550%49%47%42%12%.28
DUKE Defense1324.519.343.3%3.471.2 - - - - - 49%50%43%44%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
SMU Defense1422.122.235.7%3.591.2 - - - - - 47%52%37%35%19%.04
DUKE Offense1326.325.742%4.271.2193481671814.852%47%42%42%13%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
SMU1430:2123.543%59%4.640.80.91.26.63.1530.4
Duke1328:5918.736%60%5.6461.21.25.52.1131.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Offense1450% (66)47% (30)39.7176.64.529 (22).18 (52)3.21 (49)85% (2)6% (4)0.88 (122)
DUKE Defense1349% (53)43% (69) - - - - .11 (46)3.18 (90)68% (39)10% (82)0.96 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
SMU Defense1447% (38)37% (17) - - - - .04 (19)2.9 (35)67% (30)12% (23)0.97 (50)
DUKE Offense1352% (47)42% (77)34.5166.84.826 (30).17 (56)3.1 (70)66% (114)8% (20)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Offense1449% (71)42% (67)19.633.2278.48.414.233 (11)8 (30).45 (16)2 (3)31% (57)33% (44).38 (53)6% (58)2.1 (46)
DUKE Defense1350% (83)44% (101) - - - - - - 10 (67).22 (42)1.4 (3)31% (86)31% (78).3 (64)6% (56)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
SMU Defense1452% (97)35% (8) - - - - - - 12 (37).09 (8)1.7 (87)36% (18)22% (1).07 (2)8% (19)2.1 (70)
DUKE Offense1347% (84)42% (66)15.427.5180.86.611.814 (106)8 (30).24 (79)1.4 (122)33% (88)31% (65).4 (43)6% (62)2 (95)

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 15.59 #13
SMU's Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
SMU's Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
2024 Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
SMU's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
SMU's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
SMU: 15.59   Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
SMU: 17.5   Duke: 5.6




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


SMU Scoring
Offense: 36.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 29
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.2

SMU's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
SMU 30
Duke 20


Projected Total Points: 55
Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/26Duke27SMU28SMUSMU -11.5Duke49.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke011 Overs
SMU100 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0
Road Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0

(#13) SMU Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 15.59 #13
Offense Rating: 23.91 #28
Defense Rating: 1.06 #5
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.5 #12
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.2 #5
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #30
Talent Rating: 734.00 #47
Blue Chip Ratio: 8% #47
Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.41 PPO
Avg Run Success 44%
Avg Pass Success 44%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 37%
Great in Scoring Position 3.09 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Great Pass Def Success 35%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Good Field Position

SMU     Ratings Matchup     Duke
Power #13
#50
Off #28
#113
Def #5
#17
Talent #47
#56
SP+ #12
#44
SP+ Off #5
#71
SP+ Def #30
#31

Rematch from Week 9
SMU 11.5 (49.5)
SMU won at Duke this year (28-27)

Previous Matchups
SMU beat Duke last year (28-27)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 70°

Team Information
Injuries: SMU | DUKE
Depth Chart: SMU | DUKE
Rosters: SMU | DUKE
(#50) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see


  
SMU's OC Casey Woods
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kevin Jennings24838165%318923118.4
Preston Stone305159%421518.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brashard Smith (Tr)2341330145.771
Kevin Jennings10135453.559
LJ Johnson Jr.7430354.135
Derrick McFall2610624.117
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Hudson39422510.842
Matthew Hibner (Tr)24368415.380
R.J. Maryland24359415.049
Brashard Smith (Tr)3932748.433

View SMU's Full Roster
SMU's DC Scott Symons
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003
Alex Kilgore553103
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahfari Harvey (Tr)3013891
Isaiah Smith319761
Jared Harrison-Hunte (Tr)408750
Cam Robertson296330
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deuce Harmon (Tr)282006
Isaiah Nwokobia953123
Ahmaad Moses646003

Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865
Star Thomas (Tr)2015317.729
Javon Harvey (Tr)1110119.216

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)1004142
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Terry Moore717105
Tre Freeman674132
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Vincent Anthony25105133
Aaron Hall439462
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers548138
Terry Moore717105
Kimari Robinson235014