Duke at Ole Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils vs Ole Miss Rebels(#21)Ole Miss logo
Thursday, January 2nd 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
Ole Miss -17.5 (50.5) (-900)  Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 52 - Duke: 20  (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl)

 
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ole Miss -22  (SP+ MISS -22)

Projected Score: DUKE: 16 - MISS: 38 (53)
MISS Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
DUKE Travel: 608 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 39 - 14 (40 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Ole Miss vs Furman-45.558.5W 76 - 0OY
Sat 9/7 Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee-42.560.5W 52 - 3UY
Sat 9/14 Ole Miss at Wake Forest-20.565.5W 40 - 6UY
Sat 9/21 Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern-35.068.5W 52 - 13UY
Sat 9/28 Ole Miss vs Kentucky-15.051.5L 17 - 20UN
Sat 10/5 Ole Miss at South Carolina-10.053.0W 27 - 3UY
Sat 10/12 Ole Miss at LSU-3.564.5L 26 - 29UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 Ole Miss vs Oklahoma-19.050.0W 26 - 14UN
Sat 11/2 Ole Miss at Arkansas-8.054.0W 63 - 31OY
Sat 11/9 Ole Miss vs Georgia+1.554.5W 28 - 10UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Ole Miss at Florida-13.057.5L 17 - 24UN
Fri 11/29 Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-26.563.5W 26 - 14UN
Thu 1/2 Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)26.335% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)24.541% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)38.644% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)14.435% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
MISS#4 (.34)47% (19)44% (76)3.02 (72)16451% (3)3174 (58)#6 (.04)35% (3)35% (6)36% (13)2.98 (8)68.50.91.6



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1326.328.438.6%3.71.416315892263.344%56%35%42%19%.12
MISS Defense1314.410.635.3%2.981.6 - - - - - 47%53%35%36%25%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1324.52637.6%3.192 - - - - - 52%48%41%34%23%.06
MISS Offense1338.639.647.4%40.9234811643174.650%50%44%51%15%.34

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.2131.2
Ole Miss1326:0422.741%59%6.868.50.91.68.94.1029.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)
MISS Defense1347% (25)35% (6) - - - - -.04 (4)2.49 (7)74% (71)16% (1)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)
MISS Offense1350% (75)44% (76)35.8164.24.627 (30).15 (58)3.02 (72)71% (85)10% (68)1.09 (26)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)
MISS Defense1353% (115)36% (13) - - - - - - 11 (52).12 (20)1.6 (85)37% (5)23% (1).1 (3)8% (3)2.1 (68)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)
MISS Offense1350% (59)51% (3)20.530.5317.210.415.427 (20)6 (10).53 (3)1.6 (46)29% (28)38% (7).63 (2)5% (54)2.3 (12)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10  #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83  #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00  #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6  #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68   Ole Miss: 26.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6   Ole Miss: 27.9




Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 26.33  #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20  #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53  #4
2024 Talent Rating: 848.00  #21
Blue Chip Ratio: 33  #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9  #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7  #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9  #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 901
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Ole Miss 38
Duke 16


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Ole Miss 33
Duke 28

Total Points: 60

Based on Entire Season
Ole Miss 32
Duke 20

Total Points: 52
Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 38.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.6
Defense: 14.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 10.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202401/02Ole Miss52Duke20Ole Miss -17.5Ole Miss50.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ole Miss111 Overs
Duke000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1

Duke Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Gator Bowl Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52
2023Birmingham Bowl Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10
2022Military Bowl Duke vs UCF-3.563.0W 30 - 13
2018Independence Bowl Duke vs Temple+3.556.5W 56 - 27
Ole Miss Recent Bowl History
DateBowlMatchupSpreadTotalResult
2024Gator Bowl Ole Miss vs Duke-17.550.5W 52 - 20
2023Peach Bowl Ole Miss vs Penn State+5.553.0W 38 - 25
2022Texas Bowl Ole Miss vs Texas Tech-4.573.0L 25 - 42
2021Sugar Bowl Ole Miss vs Baylor-1.060.5L 7 - 21
2020Outback Bowl Ole Miss vs Indiana+6.566.5W 26 - 20
  
(#50) DUKE at (#4) MISS
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKEMISS
Power RatePwr #50 #4
SP+SP+ #44 #2
Perf GradeGrade #59 #6
OffenseOff #90 #15
DefenseDef #25 #3
Spec TeamsST #68 #81
TalentTal #56 #21
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #19

Duke Notes
(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see

Ole Miss Notes
(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffMISS Def
Perf GradePerf #90 #3
SuccessSuc #116 #3
ExplosiveExp #84 #78
PPAPPA #109 #6
PowerPwr #113 #4
SP+SP+ #71 #3
Pts POPPO #90 #8
HavocHav #115 #1
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffMISS Def
Run GameRun #122 #3
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #6
Run ExplRExp #131 #23
PPAExp #133 #4
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #7
Stuff RateStuff #130 #19
TackleTak -  #1
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffMISS Def
Pass GamePass #59 #22
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #13
Pass ExplPExl #56 #85
PPAExp #55 #20
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #68 #4
F7 HavocF7 #78 #1
DB HavocDB #129 #3
Ole Miss on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMISS OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #15 #25
SuccessSuc #19 #16
ExplosiveExp #8 #22
PPAPPA #4 #10
PowerPwr #8 #17
SP+SP+ #7 #31
Pts POPPO #58 #17
HavocHav #54 #2
Ole Miss Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
MISS OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #55 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #76 #51
Run ExplRExp #26 #38
PPAExp #58 #35
Run BlockR Blk #89 -
OL YdsOLY #72 #28
Stuff RateStuff #92 #16
TackleTak -  #73
Ole Miss Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCatMISS OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #1 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #3 #5
Pass ExplPExl #46 #39
PPAExp #3 #7
Pass Block/RushP Blk #82 #37
F7 HavocF7 #68 #2
DB HavocDB #54 #28
Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in EverBank Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 50°
Rematch from Week 1
Ole Miss -17.5 (50.5)
Ole Miss won vs Duke this year (52-20)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Duke last year (52-20)

  
DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore55861815.758
Eli Pancol60798913.386
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)1004142
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Terry Moore717105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Vincent Anthony25105133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Stinson674238
Chandler Rivers548138
Joshua Pickett384007

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaxson Dart27639869%427929610.8
Austin Simmons193259%282208.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Henry Parrish Jr.131693105.342
Jaxson Dart12449534.035
Ulysses Bentley IV8441955.089
Matt Jones4321134.946
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Harris611063717.470
Jordan Watkins49906918.575
Cayden Lee57874215.358
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)28553619.866

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Pete Golding (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)8712494
TJ Dottery776341
Trey Washington644027
Suntarine Perkins60141180
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Suntarine Perkins60141180
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)371411130
Jared Ivey4110883
Walter Nolen (Tr)4713642
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Amos (Tr)5040013
Jadon Canady3830011
Trey Washington644027