Duke at Ole Miss - 2024 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils vs Ole Miss Rebels

Thursday, January 2nd 2025 (8:00 PM EST)
Ole Miss -17.5 (50.5) (-900) Open: 0.0
Ole Miss 52 - Duke: 20 (TaxSlayer Gator Bowl)

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Ole Miss -22 (SP+ MISS -22)
Projected Score: DUKE: 17 - MISS: 39 (55)
MISS Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
DUKE Travel: 422 miles

Rebels (10 - 3) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach Lane Kiffin (34 - 15)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (39 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
DUKE Players
MISS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Ole Miss's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Ole Miss vs Furman	-45.5	58.5	W 76 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Ole Miss vs Middle Tennessee	-42.5	60.5	W 52 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Ole Miss at Wake Forest	-20.5	65.5	W 40 - 6	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Ole Miss vs Georgia Southern	-35.0	68.5	W 52 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Ole Miss vs Kentucky	-15.0	51.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/5	Ole Miss at South Carolina	-10.0	53.0	W 27 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Ole Miss at LSU	-3.5	64.5	L 26 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Ole Miss vs Oklahoma	-19.0	50.0	W 26 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/2	Ole Miss at Arkansas	-8.0	54.0	W 63 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Ole Miss vs Georgia	+1.5	54.5	W 28 - 10	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Ole Miss at Florida	-13.0	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Fri 11/29	Ole Miss vs Mississippi State	-26.5	63.5	W 26 - 14	U	N
Thu 1/2	Ole Miss vs Duke	-17.5	50.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	34.6	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	29.4	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2
MISS	#30 (.28)	44% (44)	36.9	44% (54)	2.94 (100)	176	45% (31)	286	4.72 (13)	#68 (.18)	42% (62)	21.1	43% (74)	41% (54)	3.64 (55)	59.1	0.5	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	37	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2
MISS Defense	13	21.1	15.6	41.6%	3.64	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	41%	18%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	27.5	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16
MISS Offense	13	36.9	39	44.4%	4.72	0.5	23	462	176	286	4.3	54%	45%	44%	45%	15%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2
Ole Miss	13	27:43	23.5	37%	69%	7.2	59.1	0.5	1.4	5.9	2.6	1	29

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)
MISS Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (74)	-	-	-	-	.14 (70)	3.21 (96)	86% (127)	11% (30)	0.98 (58)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)
MISS Offense	13	54% (37)	44% (54)	41.1	176.5	4.3	29 (22)	.17 (60)	2.94 (100)	70% (95)	11% (80)	1.05 (44)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)
MISS Defense	13	49% (70)	41% (54)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.26 (59)	1.6 (79)	32% (65)	27% (26)	.23 (31)	7% (43)	2 (35)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)
MISS Offense	13	45% (97)	45% (31)	19.7	30.4	285.6	9.4	14.5	26 (31)	6 (14)	.45 (17)	1.7 (21)	32% (72)	33% (55)	.43 (39)	5% (22)	2.2 (28)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 360.00 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 405
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68 Ole Miss: 26.33

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 Ole Miss: 27.9

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: 26.33 #4
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: 27.20 #8
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: 0.53 #4
2024 Talent Rating: 462.00 #20
Blue Chip Ratio: 33 #19
Ole Miss's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Ole Miss's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 27.9 #2
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.7 #7
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 11.9 #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Ole Miss 39
Duke 17

Projected Total Points: 55

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 39
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Ole Miss's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	01/02	Ole Miss	52	Duke	20	Ole Miss -17.5	Ole Miss	50.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ole Miss	1	1	1 Overs
Duke	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

Duke Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Gator Bowl	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52
2023	Birmingham Bowl	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10
2022	Military Bowl	Duke vs UCF	-3.5	63.0	W 30 - 13
2018	Independence Bowl	Duke vs Temple	+3.5	56.5	W 56 - 27

Ole Miss Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Gator Bowl	Ole Miss vs Duke	-17.5	50.5	W 52 - 20
2023	Peach Bowl	Ole Miss vs Penn State	+5.5	53.0	W 38 - 25
2022	Texas Bowl	Ole Miss vs Texas Tech	-4.5	73.0	L 25 - 42
2021	Sugar Bowl	Ole Miss vs Baylor	-1.0	60.5	L 7 - 21
2020	Outback Bowl	Ole Miss vs Indiana	+6.5	66.5	W 26 - 20

(#50) DUKE at (#4) MISS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	MISS
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#50	#4
SP+SP+	#44	#2
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#6
OffenseOff	#90	#15
DefenseDef	#25	#3
Spec TeamsST	#68	#81
TalentTal	#58	#20
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#19

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

Ole Miss Notes(11/29) Rgame good enough for Egg Bowl win. Dart meh
(11/23) Gagged season @ UF, 3 TO's, short yd disasters
(11/13) Killed UGA, Def great, Dart tough, Off good
(11/7) WR Harris likely play vs UGA but limited
(11/7) RB1 Parrish out for the Georgia game
(10/21) LSU only Off faced > 60, Ark,UGA,UF to go
(10/21) Even w/ LSU, 12 flags, 2 TOs, Dart meh cost em
(10/13) Season meltdown @ LSU. Dart avg, Def gagged
(10/10) OL injuries really hurting this Off. Dart pressure
(9/28) Shut down by UK. Run 92 yds (3.2 ypc). Shocking L
(7/30) No Tx/Bama/Tenn. Play SEC bottoms outside Vandy
(7/30) OL has 200+ starts, still some ? w/ portal adds
Ole Miss Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MISS Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#90	#3
SuccessSuc	#69	#62
ExplosiveExp	#93	#69
PPAPPA	#64	#68
PowerPwr	#113	#4
SP+SP+	#71	#3
Pts POPPO	#31	#55
HavocHav	#22	#33

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#122	#3
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#74
Run ExplRExp	#30	#58
PPAExp	#56	#70
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#96
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#105
TackleTak	-	#1

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#66	#54
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#79
PPAExp	#79	#59
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#4
F7 HavocF7	#20	#30
DB HavocDB	#62	#43

Ole Miss on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#25
SuccessSuc	#44	#86
ExplosiveExp	#26	#12
PPAPPA	#30	#52
PowerPwr	#8	#17
SP+SP+	#7	#31
Pts POPPO	#13	#43
HavocHav	#60	#71

Ole Miss Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#55	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#54	#69
Run ExplRExp	#44	#43
PPAExp	#60	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#89	-
OL YdsOLY	#100	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#123	#65
TackleTak	-	#73

Ole Miss Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MISS Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#1	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#21	#3
PPAExp	#17	#42
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#82	#37
F7 HavocF7	#80	#82
DB HavocDB	#22	#56

Program Comparison
MISS 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'24 Profile: Up to CFB Elites

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in EverBank Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Ole Miss -17.5 (50.5)
Ole Miss won vs Duke this year (52-20)

Previous Matchups
Ole Miss beat Duke in 2024 (52-20)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7

MISS's OC Charlie Weis Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jaxson Dart	276	398	69%	4279	29	6	10.8
Austin Simmons	19	32	59%	282	2	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Henry Parrish Jr.	131	693	10	5.3	42
Jaxson Dart	124	495	3	4.0	35
Ulysses Bentley IV	84	419	5	5.0	89
Matt Jones	43	211	3	4.9	46

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tre Harris	61	1063	7	17.4	70
Jordan Watkins	49	906	9	18.5	75
Cayden Lee	57	874	2	15.3	58
Antwane Wells Jr. (Tr)	28	553	6	19.8	66

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC Bryan Brown (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chris Paul Jr. (Tr)	87	12	4	9	4
TJ Dottery	77	6	3	4	1
Trey Washington	64	4	0	2	7
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Suntarine Perkins	60	14	11	8	0
Princely Umanmielen (Tr)	37	14	11	13	0
Jared Ivey	41	10	8	8	3
Walter Nolen (Tr)	47	13	6	4	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Trey Amos (Tr)	50	4	0	13
Jadon Canady	38	3	0	11
Trey Washington	64	4	2	7