Duke at Tulane - 2025 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at Tulane Green WaveTulane logo
Saturday, September 13th 2025 (8:00 PM EDT)
Tulane -1.5 (52.5) (-120)  Open: 0.0
Tulane 34 - Duke: 27

 
Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 1)
Our Line: Tulane -1.5  (SP+ TULN -2)
Projected Score: DUKE: 25 - TULN: 27 (52)
TULN Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
DUKE Travel: 770 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Green Wave (11 - 3) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Jon Sumrall (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (29 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11.1 - 2.9 (#12)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
 
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Tulane's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 Tulane vs Northwestern-6.547.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 9/6 Tulane at South Alabama-13.551.5W 33 - 31ON
Sat 9/13 Tulane vs Duke-1.552.5W 34 - 27OY
Sat 9/20 Tulane at Ole Miss+12.561.5L 10 - 45UN
Sat 9/27 Tulane at Tulsa-14.552.5W 31 - 14UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/9 Tulane vs East Carolina-7.053.5W 26 - 19UN
Sat 10/18 Tulane vs Army-10.044.5W 24 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/30 Tulane at UTSA-5.554.5L 26 - 48ON
Fri 11/7 Tulane at Memphis+3.053.5W 38 - 32OY
Sat 11/15 Tulane vs Florida Atlantic-16.560.5W 35 - 24UN
Sat 11/22 Tulane at Temple-7.554.5W 37 - 13UY
Sat 11/29 Tulane vs Charlotte-31.552.5W 27 - 0UN
Fri 12/5 Tulane vs North Texas+1.566.5W 34 - 21UY
Sat 12/20 Tulane at Ole Miss+17.557.5L 10 - 41UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 6, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tulane's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#26 (.25)46% (32)34.644% (61)2.77 (105)12347% (22)2624.28 (28)#120 (.25)44% (99)29.443% (80)46% (116)4.45 (129)58.40.91.5
TULN#35 (.22)46% (34)27.744% (60)3.18 (27)16648% (16)2453.88 (54)#63 (.15)45% (113)23.944% (90)46% (121)3.69 (72)63.91.21.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
TULN#20 (.27)45% (32)45% (61)3.15 (47)19747% (23)2094.5 (18)#14 (.07)38% (29)38% (14)39% (45)3.53 (42)50.11.11.6



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1434.63745.6%4.280.9213851232624.145%54%44%47%15%.25
TULN Defense1423.915.945.1%3.691.8 - - - - - 46%52%44%46%17%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1429.427.543.9%4.451.5 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%18%.25
TULN Offense1427.72945.5%3.881.2224121662454.553%45%44%48%13%.22

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1427:2020.839%76%658.40.91.56.31.9331
Tulane1430:5121.942%52%6.963.91.21.85.62.6134.5
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1445% (109)44% (61)29.9123.14.124 (60).07 (93)2.77 (105)70% (83)10% (89)0.96 (67)
TULN Defense1446% (18)44% (90) - - - - .09 (64)2.97 (86)71% (65)10% (47)0.9 (36)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1448% (48)43% (80) - - - - .12 (86)2.73 (36)76% (104)12% (15)1.03 (100)
TULN Offense1453% (39)44% (60)36.7166.44.526 (49).11 (68)3.18 (27)78% (30)7% (15)0.89 (101)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1454% (23)47% (22)21.932.52628.11230 (14)5 (7).42 (21)1.6 (36)30% (52)34% (26).43 (24)5% (39)2.2 (20)
TULN Defense1452% (113)46% (121) - - - - - - 15 (38).26 (75)1.4 (13)28% (124)33% (106).32 (83)6% (49)1.9 (36)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1450% (87)46% (116) - - - - - - 13 (22).41 (124)1.7 (111)32% (54)34% (122).46 (130)6% (70)2.1 (91)
TULN Offense1445% (96)48% (16)18.730.4245.18.113.118 (106)9 (7).38 (27)1.5 (75)29% (33)34% (25).39 (37)5% (48)1.9 (95)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.96  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.47  #22
Duke's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5%  #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #23
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #91

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.96   Tulane: 7.585

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.8   Tulane: 6.8




Tulane's Power Ratings
Tulane's Power Rating: 7.585  #58
Tulane's Offense Rating: 13.46  #48
Tulane's Defense Rating: 10.09  #79
2025 Talent Rating: 704.00  #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #101
Tulane's 2025 Expected Record: 11.1 - 2.9
Tulane's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.8  #44
Tulane's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.0  #35
Tulane's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #67

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 575.29
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tulane 27
Duke 25


Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Tulane 22
Duke 21

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Tulane 29
Duke 28

Total Points: 57
Tulane Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.9

Tulane's 2025 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 10
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Tulane34Duke27Tulane -1.5Tulane52.5Over
201509/03Tulane7Duke37Duke -13.5Duke51.5Under
201409/20Duke47Tulane13Duke -17.5Duke0
201109/24Duke48Tulane27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Tulane111 Overs
Duke321 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 12 - 12 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 31 - 21 - 00 - 2

(#50) DUKE at (#58) TULN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKETULN
Power RatePwr #50 #58
SP+SP+ #53 #44
Perf GradeGrade #32 #44
OffenseOff #9 #41
DefenseDef #103 #75
Spec TeamsST #26 #34
TalentTal #48 #73
Blue ChipsBC% #54 #101
Duke Notes
(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report
Tulane Notes
(12/9) Hired HC Will Hall? Fired from So Miss, was PGC?
(12/6) AAC Champs after beating North Texas
(11/29) 4th straight W to finish 10-2 and in the AAC title game
(10/31) Overrated, bad in last 3 games. Could be 4-4
(10/30) Def, esp tackling absolutely atrocious vs UTSA
(10/7) By far best Field Position team in CFB
(9/20) Mauled by Ole Miss. Off was worse than awful
(9/15) Huge W over Duke, Off methodical but effective
(9/2) Def amazing vs NW, Run Off good, G5 contender
(8/30) QBs J Retzlaff (BYU) will start opener vs NW
(8/30) Impressive Run Off vs NW, Retzlaff meh
(7/28) Schedule is sneaky rough, Oct - Nov 7 run
Tulane Injury Report
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffTULN Def
Perf GradePerf #9 #75
SuccessSuc #32 #113
ExplosiveExp #25 #19
PPAPPA #26 #63
PowerPwr #22 #79
SP+SP+ #23 #67
Pts POPPO #28 #72
HavocHav #65 #50
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffTULN Def
Run GameRun #47 #88
Run SuccessRSuc #61 #90
Run ExplRExp #67 #36
PPAExp #93 #64
Run BlockR Blk #21 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #86
Stuff RateStuff #113 #92
TackleTak -  #71
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffTULN Def
Pass GamePass #6 #80
Pass SuccessPSuc #22 #121
Pass ExplPExl #36 #13
PPAExp #21 #75
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #29 #26
F7 HavocF7 #89 #47
DB HavocDB #39 #49
Tulane on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatTULN OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #41 #103
SuccessSuc #34 #99
ExplosiveExp #105 #118
PPAPPA #35 #120
PowerPwr #48 #88
SP+SP+ #35 #91
Pts POPPO #54 #129
HavocHav #21 #28
Tulane Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
TULN OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #80 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #60 #80
Run ExplRExp #101 #100
PPAExp #68 #86
Run BlockR Blk #82 -
OL YdsOLY #27 #36
Stuff RateStuff #41 #13
TackleTak -  #88
Tulane Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatTULN OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #13 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #16 #116
Pass ExplPExl #75 #111
PPAExp #27 #124
Pass Block/RushP Blk #43 #56
F7 HavocF7 #15 #15
DB HavocDB #48 #70
Program Comparison
TULN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Benson Field at Yulman Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 88° - Wind: 9 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Tulane -1.5 (52.5)
Tulane won vs Duke this year (34-27)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)30544968%36463058.1
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard178962105.449
Anderson Castle (Tr)110470114.366
Jaquez Moore3919214.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)681069615.777
Que'Sean Brown53664312.544
Sahmir Hagans38467612.335
Jeremiah Hasley34404511.956

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver (Tr)815201
Luke Mergott817283
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall3910340
Elliott Schaper162200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123

TULN's OC Joe Craddock (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jake Retzlaff24239162%31681578.1
Brendan Sullivan (Tr)193063%222227.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jake Retzlaff129634164.969
Jamauri McClure8354026.530
Javin Gordon12851654.025
Arnold Barnes5121704.314
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shazz Preston43723416.869
Anthony Brown41523212.854
Omari Hayes (Tr)39515113.242
Bryce Bohanon31417213.542

View Tulane's Full Roster

TULN's DC Greg Gasparato (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Tchienchou802103
Chris Rodgers807321
Bailey Despanie512005
Sam Howard509420
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Harvey Dyson III3110701
Jordan Norman (Tr)278620
Santana Hopper (Tr)259540
Kameron Hamilton305453
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaheim Johnson381009
E'zaiah Shine352007
Javion White444006