Duke at Georgia Tech - 2024 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets(#17)Georgia Tech logo
Saturday, October 5th 2024 (8:00 PM EDT)
Georgia Tech -10 (52.5) (-375)  Open: -8.0
Georgia Tech 24 - Duke: 14  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
GT coming off BYE
DUKE is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Georgia Tech -3  (SP+ DUKE -3.5)

Projected Score: DUKE: 26 - GT: 29 (54)
GT Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
DUKE Travel: 345 miles
Yellow Jackets (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brent Key (11 - 10)
Avg Score : 29 - 26 (35 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Duke's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Duke vs Elon-24.547.5W 26 - 3UN
Fri 9/6 Duke vs Northwestern+2.537.5W 26 - 20OY
Sat 9/14 Duke vs UConn-17.546.5W 26 - 21ON
Sat 9/21 Duke at Middle Tennessee-14.551.0W 45 - 17OY
Sat 9/28 Duke vs North Carolina+1.055.5W 21 - 20UY
Sat 10/5 Duke at Georgia Tech+10.052.5L 14 - 24UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18 Duke vs Florida State-2.543.0W 23 - 16UY
Sat 10/26 Duke vs SMU+11.549.5L 27 - 28OY
Sat 11/2 Duke at Miami+21.055.5L 31 - 53ON
Sat 11/9 Duke at NC State+3.551.5W 29 - 19UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23 Duke vs Virginia Tech+2.545.5W 31 - 28OY
Sat 11/30 Duke at Wake Forest-3.553.5W 23 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Duke vs Ole Miss+17.550.5L 20 - 52ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Georgia Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/24 Georgia Tech vs Florida State+10.054.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 8/31 Georgia Tech vs Georgia State-20.557.0W 35 - 12UY
Sat 9/7 Georgia Tech at Syracuse-2.560.5L 28 - 31UN
Sat 9/14 Georgia Tech vs VMI-42.553.5W 59 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Georgia Tech at Louisville+9.556.0L 19 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Georgia Tech vs Duke-10.052.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 10/12 Georgia Tech at North Carolina-3.560.5W 41 - 34OY
Sat 10/19 Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame+14.049.5L 13 - 31UN
Sat 10/26 Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech+11.052.0L 6 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Georgia Tech vs Miami+9.564.5W 28 - 23UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/21 Georgia Tech vs NC State-7.551.5W 30 - 29ON
Fri 11/29 Georgia Tech at Georgia+17.548.5L 42 - 44OY
Fri 12/27 Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt-3.049.0L 27 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Georgia Tech's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)26.335% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)24.541% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
GT#36 (.24)46% (29)28.945% (47)2.85 (100)17246% (25)2224.25 (35)#65 (.16)42% (77)25.641% (50)44% (99)3.97 (85)35.60.60.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
GT#36 (.24)46% (29)45% (47)2.85 (100)17246% (25)2224.25 (35)#65 (.16)42% (77)41% (50)44% (99)3.97 (85)35.60.60.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1326.328.438.6%3.71.416315892263.344%56%35%42%19%.12
GT Defense1325.61742.3%3.970.8 - - - - - 47%53%41%44%15%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1324.52637.6%3.192 - - - - - 52%48%41%34%23%.06
GT Offense1328.935.245.9%4.250.6203941722224.954%46%45%46%12%.24

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.2131.2
Georgia Tech1328:4419.841%56%4.635.60.60.85.21.3127.1
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)
GT Defense1347% (30)41% (50) - - - - .05 (31)2.56 (12)59% (9)10% (73)1 (74)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)
GT Offense1354% (44)45% (47)35172.44.929 (18).14 (62)2.85 (100)75% (56)7% (21)1.03 (46)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)
GT Defense1353% (107)44% (99) - - - - - - 5 (117).27 (85)1.5 (42)32% (75)27% (26).21 (33)5% (88)2 (50)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)
GT Offense1346% (90)46% (25)18.829221.87.711.814 (108)6 (10).36 (26)1.5 (110)29% (22)38% (10).44 (24)5% (34)1.9 (105)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10  #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83  #17
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4%  #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6  #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7  #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3  #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68   Georgia Tech: 6.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6   Georgia Tech: 1.9




Georgia Tech's Power Ratings
Georgia Tech's Power Rating: 6.93  #38
Georgia Tech's Offense Rating: 26.04  #14
Georgia Tech's Defense Rating: 11.07  #79
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #65
Georgia Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
Georgia Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.9  #66
Georgia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.1  #42
Georgia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #79

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia Tech 29
Duke 26


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Georgia Tech 32
Duke 27

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Georgia Tech 29
Duke 24

Total Points: 53
Georgia Tech Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.2
Defense: 25.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17

Georgia Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Duke18Georgia Tech27Duke -3.5Georgia Tech60.5Under
202410/05Georgia Tech24Duke14Georgia Tech -10Push52.5Under
202210/08Georgia Tech23Duke20Duke -3.5Georgia Tech54.0Under
202110/09Duke27Georgia Tech31Georgia Tech -4.5Duke60.5Under
202011/28Georgia Tech56Duke33Duke -1.5Georgia Tech57.0Over
201910/12Duke41Georgia Tech23Duke -17.5Duke47.5Over
201810/13Georgia Tech14Duke28Georgia Tech -1.5Duke55.5Under
201711/18Duke43Georgia Tech20Georgia Tech -6.5Duke49.0Over
201610/29Georgia Tech38Duke35Georgia Tech -8.5Duke50.5Over
201509/26Duke34Georgia Tech20Georgia Tech -10Duke56.0Under
201410/11Georgia Tech25Duke31Georgia Tech -6Duke0
201309/14Duke14Georgia Tech38Georgia Tech -9Georgia Tech0
201211/17Georgia Tech42Duke24
201111/19Duke31Georgia Tech38
201011/20Georgia Tech30Duke20
200911/14Duke10Georgia Tech49
200810/04Georgia Tech27Duke0
200711/10Duke24Georgia Tech41
200611/18Georgia Tech49Duke21
200510/15Duke10Georgia Tech35
200410/16Georgia Tech24Duke7
200311/08Duke41Georgia Tech17
200211/16Georgia Tech17Duke2
200110/06Duke10Georgia Tech37
200010/20Georgia Tech45Duke10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Georgia Tech1944 Overs
Duke676 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 106 - 51 - 45 - 1
Road Teams10 - 155 - 61 - 54 - 1

(#50) DUKE at (#38) GT
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKEGT
Power RatePwr #50 #38
SP+SP+ #44 #66
Perf GradeGrade #59 #61
OffenseOff #90 #48
DefenseDef #25 #93
Spec TeamsST #68 #7
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #65
Duke Notes
(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report
Georgia Tech Notes
(11/30) 563 yds @ UGA. King was heroic, DB's hurt/bad
(11/25) Survived NC St, Rgame bad, Fr QB Philo good
(11/13) Rgame torched Miami, King ran hard, RDef great
(10/19) No Rgame w/o Haynes, 64 yds, 2.2 ypc vs ND
(10/18) QB King out vs Notre Dame. SO Pyron start
(10/13) Run Def torched by NC. Rgame 371 yds (7.7 ypc)
(9/21) Run Def great vs L'ville. Rgame had awful night
(9/8) Def torched by Cuse, 520 yds, 381 passing
(8/24) DL much better than expected vs FSU
(8/19) Huge gap between Off & Def, new DC TY
(8/19) Over bet watch. Faulkner's Off good, Def bad
(8/19) 4/5 OL return, RB Haynes great, Run game v good
Georgia Tech Injury Report
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffGT Def
Perf GradePerf #90 #93
SuccessSuc #116 #77
ExplosiveExp #84 #72
PPAPPA #109 #65
PowerPwr #113 #79
SP+SP+ #71 #79
Pts POPPO #90 #85
HavocHav #115 #78
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffGT Def
Run GameRun #122 #67
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #50
Run ExplRExp #131 #74
PPAExp #133 #31
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #12
Stuff RateStuff #130 #4
TackleTak -  #124
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffGT Def
Pass GamePass #59 #100
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #99
Pass ExplPExl #56 #42
PPAExp #55 #85
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #68 #115
F7 HavocF7 #78 #73
DB HavocDB #129 #88
Georgia Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatGT OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #48 #25
SuccessSuc #29 #16
ExplosiveExp #88 #22
PPAPPA #36 #10
PowerPwr #14 #17
SP+SP+ #42 #31
Pts POPPO #35 #17
HavocHav #22 #2
Georgia Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat
GT OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #84 #63
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #51
Run ExplRExp #46 #38
PPAExp #62 #35
Run BlockR Blk #82 -
OL YdsOLY #100 #28
Stuff RateStuff #95 #16
TackleTak -  #73
Georgia Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 54%
CategoryCatGT OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #15 #8
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #5
Pass ExplPExl #110 #39
PPAExp #26 #7
Pass Block/RushP Blk #25 #37
F7 HavocF7 #21 #2
DB HavocDB #34 #28
Program Comparison
GT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Remains Top G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Stadium at Historic Grant Field
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 72°
Rematch from Week 6
Georgia Tech -10.0 (52.5)
Georgia Tech won vs Duke this year (24-14)

Previous Matchups
Georgia Tech beat Duke last year (24-14)
Georgia Tech beat Duke in 2022 (23-20)

  
DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)25442160%293226127.0
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Star Thomas (Tr)21387174.144
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Henry Belin IV113903.511
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore55861815.758
Eli Pancol60798913.386
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)1004142
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Terry Moore717105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Alex Howard (Tr)8915761
Cameron Bergeron8410572
Vincent Anthony25105133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Stinson674238
Chandler Rivers548138
Joshua Pickett384007

GT's OC Buster Faulkner (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Haynes King19626973%21141427.9
Aaron Philo387451%565127.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jamal Haynes16894495.668
Haynes King126577114.630
Chad Alexander5828014.828
Eric Singleton Jr.2113116.235
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Singleton Jr.56754313.557
Malik Rutherford62702311.352
Avery Boyd25316212.633
Chase Lane24283311.832

View Georgia Tech's Full Roster

GT's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Efford646311
Ahmari Harvey623002
Trenilyas Tatum556202
Clayton Powell-Lee532113
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Efford646311
Sylvain Yondjouen246375
Romello Height (Tr)347340
Trenilyas Tatum556202
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Sylvain Yondjouen246375
Warren Burrell (Tr)270004
Rodney Shelley195014