Georgia Tech at Duke - 2025 Matchup Preview
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils

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Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 PM EDT)
Duke -3.5 (60.5) (-145)  Open: -2.5 | 61.0
Georgia Tech 27 - Duke: 18  (ACC)

 
Yellow Jackets (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Brent Key (18 - 15)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (31 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#30)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 2)
DUKE coming off BYE
Our Line: Georgia Tech -1.5  (SP+ GT -2.5)

Projected Score: GT: 31 - DUKE: 30 (61)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
GT Travel: 345 miles
Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
 
Georgia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Georgia Tech at Colorado-4.055.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Georgia Tech vs Gardner-Webb-37.560.5W 59 - 12OY
Sat 9/13 Georgia Tech vs Clemson+2.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 9/20 Georgia Tech vs Temple-24.552.5W 45 - 24ON
Sat 9/27 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest-13.553.5W 30 - 29ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech-14.055.5W 35 - 20UY
Sat 10/18 Georgia Tech at Duke+3.560.5W 27 - 18UY
Sat 10/25 Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-17.552.5W 41 - 16OY
Sat 11/1 Georgia Tech at NC State-4.558.5L 36 - 48ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Georgia Tech at Boston College-16.561.5W 36 - 34ON
Sat 11/22 Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh-2.561.5L 28 - 42ON
Fri 11/28 Georgia Tech vs Georgia+15.559.5L 9 - 16UY
Sat 12/27 Georgia Tech vs BYU+3.555.0L 21 - 25UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Tech's Schedule
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GT#36 (.24)46% (29)32.245% (47)2.85 (100)17246% (25)2224.25 (35)#65 (.16)42% (77)2541% (50)44% (99)3.97 (85)35.60.60.8
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)34.635% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)29.441% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GT0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GT Offense1332.231.245.9%4.250.6203941722224.954%46%45%46%12%.24
DUKE Defense1329.431.337.6%3.192 - - - - - 52%48%41%34%23%.06
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GT Defense132529.842.3%3.970.8 - - - - - 47%53%41%44%15%.16
DUKE Offense1334.632.238.6%3.71.416315892263.344%56%35%42%19%.12

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia Tech1328:4419.841%56%4.635.60.60.85.21.3127.1
Duke1325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.2131.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GT Offense1354% (44)45% (47)35172.44.929 (18).14 (62)2.85 (100)75% (56)7% (21)1.03 (46)
DUKE Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GT Defense1347% (30)41% (50) - - - - .05 (31)2.56 (12)59% (9)10% (73)1 (74)
DUKE Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GT Offense1346% (90)46% (25)18.829221.87.711.814 (108)6 (10).36 (26)1.5 (110)29% (22)38% (10).44 (24)5% (34)1.9 (105)
DUKE Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GT Defense1353% (107)44% (99) - - - - - - 5 (117).27 (85)1.5 (42)32% (75)27% (26).21 (33)5% (88)2 (50)
DUKE Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)

Georgia Tech's Power Ratings
Georgia Tech's Power Rating: 14.68  #23
Georgia Tech's Offense Rating: 24.65  #12
Georgia Tech's Defense Rating: 9.97  #47
2025 Talent Rating: 766.00  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 10%  #39
Georgia Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 9.3 - 3.7
Georgia Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3  #35
Georgia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.5  #34
Georgia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.9  #57

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Tech: 14.68   Duke: 10.39

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Tech: 9.3   Duke: 6.6




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 10.39  #42
Duke's Offense Rating: 21.58  #23
Duke's Defense Rating: 12.40  #58
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5  #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.6  #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.8  #19
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.2  #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Georgia Tech Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Georgia Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia Tech 31
Duke 30


Projected Total Points: 61
Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/18Duke18Georgia Tech27Duke -3.5Georgia Tech60.5Under
202410/05Georgia Tech24Duke14Georgia Tech -10Push52.5Under
202210/08Georgia Tech23Duke20Duke -3.5Georgia Tech54.0Under
202110/09Duke27Georgia Tech31Georgia Tech -4.5Duke60.5Under
202011/28Georgia Tech56Duke33Duke -1.5Georgia Tech57.0Over
201910/12Duke41Georgia Tech23Duke -17.5Duke47.5Over
201810/13Georgia Tech14Duke28Georgia Tech -1.5Duke55.5Under
201711/18Duke43Georgia Tech20Georgia Tech -6.5Duke49.0Over
201610/29Georgia Tech38Duke35Georgia Tech -8.5Duke50.5Over
201509/26Duke34Georgia Tech20Georgia Tech -10Duke56.0Under
201410/11Georgia Tech25Duke31Georgia Tech -6Duke0
201309/14Duke14Georgia Tech38Georgia Tech -9Georgia Tech0
201211/17Georgia Tech42Duke24
201111/19Duke31Georgia Tech38
201011/20Georgia Tech30Duke20
200911/14Duke10Georgia Tech49
200810/04Georgia Tech27Duke0
200711/10Duke24Georgia Tech41
200611/18Georgia Tech49Duke21
200510/15Duke10Georgia Tech35
200410/16Georgia Tech24Duke7
200311/08Duke41Georgia Tech17
200211/16Georgia Tech17Duke2
200110/06Duke10Georgia Tech37
200010/20Georgia Tech45Duke10
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke674 Overs
Georgia Tech1946 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 106 - 51 - 45 - 1
Road Teams10 - 155 - 61 - 54 - 1

(#23) GT at (#42) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatGTDUKE
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #23 #42
SP+SP+ #35 #44
Perf GradeGrade #51 #37
OffenseOff #33 #16
DefenseDef #107 #99
Spec TeamsST #19 #40
TalentTal #63 #48
Blue ChipsBC% #39 #54
Georgia Tech Notes
(12/3) HC Brent Key extended w/ new 5 year deal
(11/23) Def torched by Pitt, King 2 Int ultimately cost em
(11/16) Def torched by BC. Off/King bailed in 2H.
(11/1) Def torched @ NC St for nearly 600 yds, 48 pts
(10/28) 3 wins so far w/ negative Success Rate
(10/18) Outplayed by Duke, but Good Rush Off & found a way
(10/18) H King had 235 of 376 total yards. Pass Def torched
(8/29) H King is a dawg of a runner, pass inconsistent
(5/29) 8 of 26 portals on OL (3) & DL (5). 6 DB adds
(5/29) RB Haynes great, Alexander back w/ depth.
(5/29) WR lost #1 (Aub). 5 portal adds (FIU #1/2)
(5/29) OL 2/5 back. Schemed around LY, OTs huge ?
Georgia Tech Injury Report
Duke Notes
(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report
Georgia Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
GT OffDUKE Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #33 #99
SuccessSuc #29 #16
ExplosiveExp #88 #22
PPAPPA #36 #10
PowerPwr #12 #58
SP+SP+ #34 #86
Pts POPPO #35 #17
HavocHav #22 #2
Georgia Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
GT OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #59 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #47 #51
Run ExplRExp #46 #38
PPAExp #62 #35
Run BlockR Blk #40 -
OL YdsOLY #100 #28
Stuff RateStuff #95 #16
TackleTak -  #89
Georgia Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
GT OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #23 #105
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #5
Pass ExplPExl #110 #39
PPAExp #26 #7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #64 #68
F7 HavocF7 #21 #2
DB HavocDB #34 #28
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffGT Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #16 #107
SuccessSuc #116 #77
ExplosiveExp #84 #72
PPAPPA #109 #65
PowerPwr #23 #47
SP+SP+ #19 #57
Pts POPPO #90 #85
HavocHav #115 #78
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffGT Def
Run GameRun #36 #92
Run SuccessRSuc #129 #50
Run ExplRExp #131 #74
PPAExp #133 #31
Run BlockR Blk #36 -
OL YdsOLY #131 #12
Stuff RateStuff #130 #4
TackleTak -  #114
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffGT Def
Pass GamePass #13 #96
Pass SuccessPSuc #69 #99
Pass ExplPExl #56 #42
PPAExp #55 #85
Pass Block/RushP Blk #24 #114
F7 HavocF7 #78 #73
DB HavocDB #129 #88
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

GT 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 8
Duke -3.5 (60.5)
Georgia Tech won at Duke this year (27-18)

Previous Matchups
Georgia Tech beat Duke last year (27-18)
Georgia Tech beat Duke in 2024 (24-14)

  
GT's OC Buster Faulkner (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Haynes King25236170%29511468.2
Aaron Philo212875%3731113.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Haynes King185953155.245
Malachi Hosley (Tr)9869777.155
Jamal Haynes12453154.347
Jordan Allen685114.254
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Rivers (Tr)47671214.368
Malik Rutherford46523311.471
Isiah Canion32467414.642
Jordan Allen22304013.878

View Georgia Tech's Full Roster

GT's DC Blake Gideon (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kyle Efford772212
E.J. Lightsey761011
Clayton Powell-Lee650012
Omar Daniels604101
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akelo Stone (Tr)195401
Jordan van den Berg4211440
Brayden Manley (Tr)173351
Cayman Spaulding (Tr)413301
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmari Harvey263107
Rodney Shelley382003
Jyron Gilmore (Tr)353113

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)33450067%39733467.9
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard2001132115.760
Anderson Castle (Tr)115488124.266
Jaquez Moore4120114.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)721106715.477
Que'Sean Brown63842513.469
Sahmir Hagans44512611.635
Jeremiah Hasley40454611.456

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Mergott918293
Caleb Weaver (Tr)896201
DaShawn Stone862013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)738123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall4411340
Wesley Williams4382161
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
Luke Mergott918293
DaShawn Stone862013