Georgia Tech at Duke - 2025 Matchup Preview
Georgia Tech logo (#18)Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, October 18th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
Wallace Wade Stadium - Durham, NC  (ACC)

 
Yellow Jackets (3 - 0) (3 - 0 - 0)
Coach Brent Key (18 - 15)
Avg Score : 37 - 18 (27 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#25)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 2)
DUKE coming off BYE
Our Line: Georgia Tech -4.5   (SP+ GT -8.5)

Projected Score: GT: 31 - DUKE: 26 (57)
GT Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
GT Travel: 345 miles
Blue Devils (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 32 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
 
Georgia Tech's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Georgia Tech at Colorado-4.055.5W 27 - 20UY
Sat 9/6 Georgia Tech vs Gardner-Webb-37.560.5W 59 - 12OY
Sat 9/13 Georgia Tech vs Clemson+2.549.5W 24 - 21UY
Sat 9/20 Georgia Tech vs Temple-23.553.5
Sat 9/27 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest-7.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/11 Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech-20
Sat 10/18 Georgia Tech at Duke-4.5
Sat 10/25 Georgia Tech vs Syracuse-8.5
Sat 11/1 Georgia Tech at NC State-1.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/15 Georgia Tech at Boston College-2.5
Sat 11/22 Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh-4.5
Sat 11/29 Georgia Tech vs Georgia+12

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Georgia Tech's Schedule
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.058.5
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse+3.5
Sat 10/4 Duke at California+5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+13
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn+1
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia+1
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-1
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-5.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GT#48 (.28)52% (24)36.754% (26)3.5 (26)22851% (29)2722.35 (125)#67 (.13)40% (73)17.738% (61)42% (84)2.43 (33)58.31.71
DUKE#40 (.31)47% (43)30.343% (79)3.15 (50)12749% (37)3533.54 (95)#112 (.25)38% (64)3233% (25)45% (102)5.33 (128)56.32.30.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
GT#36 (.24)46% (29)45% (47)2.85 (100)17246% (25)2224.25 (35)#65 (.16)42% (77)41% (50)44% (99)3.97 (85)35.60.60.8
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GT Offense336.72752.2%2.351.7225002282725.858%40%54%51%8%.28
DUKE Defense3323138.4%5.330.3 - - - - - 57%43%33%45%17%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
GT Defense317.72040.1%2.431 - - - - - 54%45%38%42%15%.13
DUKE Offense330.33247.1%3.542.3244791273535.237%63%43%49%13%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Georgia Tech329:022247%40%7.758.31.716.72.3028.1
Duke325:5223.745%40%656.32.30.392.7127.2
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GT Offense358% (22)54% (26)39.3228.35.810 (10).2 (49)3.5 (26)82% (35)6% (21)0.92 (76)
DUKE Defense357% (115)33% (25) - - - - .08 (73)2.26 (25)50% (19)15% (19)1.39 (128)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
GT Defense354% (100)38% (61) - - - - .1 (86)3.02 (92)64% (51)12% (45)0.86 (49)
DUKE Offense337% (130)43% (79)24.3126.75.22 (109).03 (101)3.15 (50)83% (28)9% (71)0.83 (99)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GT Offense340% (115)51% (29)1825.727210.615.12 (102)2 (60).43 (38)1.4 (95)26% (28)41% (25).58 (29)2% (8)2 (67)
DUKE Defense343% (24)45% (102) - - - - - - 0.47 (117)1.7 (108)35% (51)30% (79).41 (100)3% (128)2.1 (87)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
GT Defense345% (38)42% (84) - - - - - - 1 (87).12 (41)1.4 (32)30% (104)33% (95).31 (81)3% (120)1.8 (53)
DUKE Offense363% (5)49% (37)27.341.3352.78.512.98 (18)2 (60).47 (30)1.6 (52)31% (76)42% (23).51 (38)4% (44)1.9 (86)

Georgia Tech's Power Ratings
Georgia Tech's Power Rating: 15.12 #39
Georgia Tech's Offense Rating: 19.44 #35
Georgia Tech's Defense Rating: 4.32 #52
2025 Talent Rating: 766.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
Georgia Tech's 2025 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Georgia Tech's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9 #38
Georgia Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #24
Georgia Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Georgia Tech: 15.12   Duke: 7.84

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Georgia Tech: 9.9   Duke: 1.4




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 7.84 #55
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.90 #54
Duke's Defense Rating: 5.62 #61
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #65
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #74
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #62

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Georgia Tech Scoring
Offense: 36.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 17.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Georgia Tech's 2025 Record
Record: 3 - 0
Record vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Georgia Tech 31
Duke 26


Total Points: 57

Duke Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 32
Defense: 32 PPG
Defense at Home: 31

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Georgia Tech24Duke14Georgia TechGeorgia Tech -10Push52.5Under
202210/08Georgia Tech23Duke20Georgia TechDuke -3.5Georgia Tech54.0Under
202110/09Duke27Georgia Tech31Georgia TechGeorgia Tech -4.5Duke60.5Under
202011/28Georgia Tech56Duke33Georgia TechDuke -1.5Georgia Tech57.0Over
201910/12Duke41Georgia Tech23DukeDuke -17.5Duke47.5Over
201810/13Georgia Tech14Duke28DukeGeorgia Tech -1.5Duke55.5Under
201711/18Duke43Georgia Tech20DukeGeorgia Tech -6.5Duke49.0Over
201610/29Georgia Tech38Duke35Georgia TechGeorgia Tech -8.5Duke50.5Over
201509/26Duke34Georgia Tech20DukeGeorgia Tech -10Duke56.0Under
201410/11Georgia Tech25Duke31DukeGeorgia Tech -6Duke0
201309/14Duke14Georgia Tech38Georgia TechGeorgia Tech -9Georgia Tech0
201211/17Georgia Tech42Duke24Georgia Tech
201111/19Duke31Georgia Tech38Georgia Tech
201011/20Georgia Tech30Duke20Georgia Tech
200911/14Duke10Georgia Tech49Georgia Tech
200810/04Georgia Tech27Duke0Georgia Tech
200711/10Duke24Georgia Tech41Georgia Tech
200611/18Georgia Tech49Duke21Georgia Tech
200510/15Duke10Georgia Tech35Georgia Tech
200410/16Georgia Tech24Duke7Georgia Tech
200311/08Duke41Georgia Tech17Duke
200211/16Georgia Tech17Duke2Georgia Tech
200110/06Duke10Georgia Tech37Georgia Tech
200010/20Georgia Tech45Duke10Georgia Tech
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke674 Overs
Georgia Tech1835 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 96 - 41 - 35 - 1
Road Teams9 - 154 - 61 - 53 - 1

(#39) Georgia Tech Info
Power Rating: 15.12 #39
Offense Rating: 19.44 #35
Defense Rating: 4.32 #52
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.9 #38
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.4 #24
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #51
Talent Rating: 766.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 10% #39
Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
Good Offense Success Rate of 52%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.35 PPO
Good Run Success 54%
Good Pass Success 51%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 40%
Good in Scoring Position 2.43 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Georgia Tech has lost 3 straight
Georgia Tech has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread )

Georgia Tech Notes
(5/29) 8 of 26 portals on OL (3) & DL (5). 6 DB adds
(5/29) RB Haynes great, Alexander back w/ depth.
(5/29) WR lost #1 (Aub). 5 portal adds (FIU #1/2)
(5/29) OL 2/5 back. Schemed around LY, OTs huge ?
(5/29) Def struggled LY, a lot back + 13 portal adds
(5/29) Can Def elevate, find pressure w/ 3 DE adds?
(5/13) WR Eric Rivers top portal add FIU (1K, 12 TDs)
(3/24) Portal RB Hosley (Penn) great find & fit
(3/21) QB King a perfect fit, #2 Philo can play
(3/21) Key been a good coach. Lighter sched TY

Georgia Tech Highlights
Georgia Tech is Undefeated vs Spread
Georgia Tech in Undefeated

Georgia Tech has Really Good Running Game (#17)
Georgia Tech offense is efficent (#24)
Georgia Tech has a top Offensive Line (#26)
Georgia Tech offense is good on 3rd downs
Georgia Tech does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#23)


Georgia Tech Deficiencies
Georgia Tech has a bad TO Margin (#107)
Georgia Tech Fumbles a Lot (#113)
Georgia Tech Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Georgia Tech offense is not Explosive (#106)
Georgia Tech offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#125)
Georgia Tech Does Not Stuff Runs (#112)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatDUKEGT
OverallOver#28#51
OffenseOff#21#50
DefenseDef#53#73
Special TeamsST#21#2
PassingPass#5#23
RushingRush#28#68
Run BlockRBLK#29#65
Pass BlockPBLK#43#55
Route RunningWR Rt#40#39
TacklingTkl#80#52
Run DefenseR Def#16#43
Pass Rush DefPRush#38#60
Coverage DefCov#105#98

Previous Matchups
Georgia Tech beat Duke last year (24-14)
Georgia Tech beat Duke in 2022 (23-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: GT | DUKE
Depth Chart: GT | DUKE
Rosters: GT | DUKE
(#55) Duke Info
Power Rating: 7.84 #55
Offense Rating: 14.90 #54
Defense Rating: 5.62 #61
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #65
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #74
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #62
Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5 #54
Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.54 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Good Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Poor Pass Def Success 45%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Duke has lost 5 straight
Duke has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 1 (0 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Duke Notes
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
(3/21) WR rebuild, #3/4 back were productive
(3/21) OL 4/5 back, need to improve. Have size
(3/21) Def really good LY. New faces, look good TY

Duke Highlights
Duke offense is good on 3rd downs
Duke has a good run defense (#25)
Duke Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#8)
Duke Defensive Line is very good (#25)
Duke Front 7 is disruptive (#19)
Duke defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Duke Deficiencies
Duke has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Duke Fumbles a Lot (#136)
Duke Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Duke gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#126)
Duke has a bad red zone defense (#128)


  
Georgia Tech's OC Buster Faulkner
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Haynes King334869%354017.4
Aaron Philo212875%3731113.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Haynes King4425945.945
Jamal Haynes3718334.947
Malachi Hosley (Tr)1916028.455
Eric Rivers (Tr)441010.327
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eric Rivers (Tr)8129016.142
Isiah Canion8110113.842
Dean Patterson (Tr)493123.384
Bailey Stockton691015.224

View Georgia Tech's Full Roster
Georgia Tech's DC Blake Gideon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
E.J. Lightsey170000
Clayton Powell-Lee160000
Kyle Efford140000
Omar Daniels131000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Akelo Stone (Tr)83200
Amontrae Bradford42200
Jordan van den Berg62110
Christian Garrett51101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ahmari Harvey80002
Daiquan White (Tr)31001
Tae Harris30001

Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)8011967%1036828.7
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard1512708.535
Jaquez Moore2411514.832
Anderson Castle (Tr)10101010.163
Peyton Jones103413.48
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)14272019.446
Que'Sean Brown13191014.744
Andrel Anthony Jr.10121312.135
Sahmir Hagans9116312.929

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DaShawn Stone201000
Caleb Weaver (Tr)191001
Jaiden Francois (Tr)181100
Nick Morris Jr.174020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony126511
Josiah Green (Tr)32100
Kendall Johnson163110
Tre Freeman133110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers102012
Vincent Anthony126511
Luke Mergott41001