Duke at Louisville - 2023 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Louisville -5 (47.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Louisville 23 - Duke: 0 (ACC)

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
LOU coming off BYE
Our Line: Louisville -6 (SP+ LOU -1)
Projected Score: DUKE: 23 - LOU: 29 (53)
LOU Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
DUKE Travel: 405 miles

Cardinals (10 - 4) (6 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jeff Brohm (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 21 (34 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.5 - 4.5 (#19)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
LOU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Louisville's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Louisville vs Georgia Tech	-7.0	49.5	W 39 - 34	O	N
Thu 9/7	Louisville vs Murray State	-43.5	55.5	W 56 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Louisville vs Indiana	-10.0	51.0	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/23	Louisville vs Boston College	-14.0	53.0	W 56 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/29	Louisville at NC State	-3.5	56.5	W 13 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/7	Louisville vs Notre Dame	+6.5	53.0	W 33 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Louisville at Pittsburgh	-7.5	44.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Louisville vs Duke	-5.0	47.0	W 23 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/4	Louisville vs Virginia Tech	-9.5	48.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Thu 11/9	Louisville vs Virginia	-20.5	49.5	W 31 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/18	Louisville at Miami	+1.5	46.5	W 38 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Louisville vs Kentucky	-7.5	47.5	L 31 - 38	O	N
Sat 12/2	Louisville vs Florida State	+3.5	51.0	L 6 - 16	U	N
Wed 12/27	Louisville vs USC	-4.5	58.0	L 28 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	.24	44%	34.6	47%	3.45	184	42%	232	4.1	.18	44%	29.4	44%	45%	3.95	50.2	0.8	2.2
LOU	.19	41%	29.9	43%	3.18	201	41%	206	3.74	.07	40%	21.2	43%	38%	2.85	66	1.8	2.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
LOU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	34.6	37	44.1%	4.1	0.8	22	416	184	232	5	51%	48%	47%	42%	14%	.24
LOU Defense	13	21.2	18.9	40.3%	2.85	2.6	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	43%	38%	20%	.07

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	29.4	27.5	44%	3.95	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	43%	56%	44%	45%	20%	.18
LOU Offense	13	29.9	33.8	41.3%	3.74	1.8	20	407	201	206	5	55%	44%	43%	41%	15%	.19

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	33:05	21.7	42%	58%	5.2	50.2	0.8	2.2	5.2	2.8	2	31.8
Louisville	13	29:54	20.3	38%	40%	6.9	66	1.8	2.6	7.2	3.7	3	30

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	51%	47%	37.2	184.2	5	31	.26	3.45	80%	7%	1.06
LOU Defense	13	51%	43%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.97	60%	14%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	43%	44%	-	-	-	-	.07	3.11	79%	12%	0.83
LOU Offense	13	55%	43%	39.9	201	5	25	.21	3.18	69%	10%	1.13

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	48%	42%	19.6	30.7	231.5	7.5	11.8	20	6	.27	1.5	31%	33%	.48	7%	2.3
LOU Defense	13	48%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.16	1.6	33%	26%	.14	6%	2.1

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	56%	45%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.3	1.5	31%	38%	.49	8%	1.9
LOU Offense	13	44%	41%	16.8	28.3	205.5	7.3	12.3	13	12	.22	1.6	34%	31%	.37	5%	2.1

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 4.24 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 620.90 #67
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.24 Louisville: 13.06

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.5 Louisville: 10.8

Louisville's Power Ratings
Louisville's Power Rating: 13.06 #21
Louisville's Offense Rating: 19.18 #44
Louisville's Defense Rating: 2.79 #16
2023 Talent Rating: 744.16 #29
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Louisville's 2023 Expected Record: 9.50 - 4.50
Louisville's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 10.8 #24
Louisville's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.7 #40
Louisville's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #26

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Louisville 29
Duke 23

Projected Total Points: 53

Louisville Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.8
Defense: 21.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.9

Louisville's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Louisville	23	Duke	0	Louisville -5	Louisville	47.0	Under
2021	11/18	Duke	22	Louisville	62	Louisville -20	Louisville	60.0	Over
2016	10/14	Louisville	24	Duke	14	Louisville -27.5	Duke	69.5	Under
2002	09/07	Duke	3	Louisville	40

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Louisville	4	2	1 Overs
Duke	0	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#40) DUKE at (#21) LOU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	LOU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#40	#21
SP+SP+	#29	#24
Perf GradeGrade	#61	#35
OffenseOff	#81	#41
DefenseDef	#43	#23
Spec TeamsST	#49	#98
TalentTal	#67	#29
Blue ChipsBC%	#69	#38

Duke Injury Report

Louisville Injury Report

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	LOU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#81	#23
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#48	#16
SP+SP+	#53	#26
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	LOU Def
Run GameRun	#61	#33
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#50

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	LOU Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#62	#20
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Louisville on Offense


CategoryCat	LOU Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#41	#43
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#44	#59
SP+SP+	#40	#25
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Louisville Run Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#13	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#88	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#89

Louisville Pass Game


CategoryCat	LOU Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#39	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#33	#51
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
LOU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'23 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Papa John's Cardinal Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Louisville -5.0 (47.0)
Louisville won vs Duke this year (23-0)

Previous Matchups
Louisville beat Duke in 2023 (23-0)

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	95	165	58%	1102	3	3	6.7
Grayson Loftis	91	163	56%	1006	8	4	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Waters	153	819	12	5.4	83
Jaquez Moore	116	674	6	5.8	58
Riley Leonard	58	352	4	6.1	44
Jaylen Coleman	46	165	1	3.6	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	62	835	8	13.5	49
Jalon Calhoun	50	666	4	13.3	69
Sahmir Hagans	30	260	0	8.7	23
Nicky Dalmolin	15	147	0	9.8	21

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Freeman	95	5	2	6	3
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6
Nick Morris Jr.	57	2	1	0	0
Dorian Mausi	56	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aeneas Peebles	42	9	5	4	2
R.J. Oben	15	6	5	5	1
Terry Moore	42	4	3	2	2
Brandon Johnson	49	8	2	3	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)	43	1	0	1	9
Chandler Rivers	47	3	0	1	7
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6

LOU's OC Brian Brohm (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jack Plummer (Tr)	256	395	65%	3204	21	12	8.1
Brock Domann	5	5	100%	44	0	0	8.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jawhar Jordan	181	1128	13	6.2	74
Isaac Guerendo (Tr)	132	810	11	6.1	73
Maurice Turner	62	284	1	4.6	41
Keyjuan Brown	11	65	1	5.9	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamari Thrash (Tr)	63	858	6	13.6	85
Chris Bell	29	407	2	14.0	48
Kevin Coleman Jr.	24	332	2	13.8	58
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce	20	312	4	15.6	55

View Louisville's Full Roster

LOU's DC Ron English (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
TJ Quinn	87	2	1	5	2
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	0	0	6
Cam'Ron Kelly	64	5	0	1	2
Jaylin Alderman	57	7	2	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ashton Gillotte	41	12	10	6	0
Mason Reiger	20	6	5	3	2
Ramon Puryear	19	6	4	3	0
Jared Dawson	13	4	3	1	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Quincy Riley	49	2	10
Jarvis Brownlee	30	1	6
Devin Neal (Tr)	72	3	6