Florida State at Duke - 2024 Matchup Preview

Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils

Friday, October 18th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Duke -2.5 (43.0) (-142) Open: -3.0
Duke 23 - Florida State: 16 (ACC)

Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

FSU coming off BYE
DUKE coming off BYE
Our Line: Duke -10.5 (SP+ DUKE -9)
Projected Score: FSU: 18 - DUKE: 28 (46)
DUKE Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 493 miles

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Florida State vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	54.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Mon 9/2	Florida State vs Boston College	-16.5	50.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Florida State vs Memphis	-7.0	52.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/21	Florida State vs California	-3.0	44.0	W 14 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Florida State at SMU	+6.0	46.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Florida State vs Clemson	+16.5	47.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Florida State at Duke	+2.5	43.0	L 16 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Florida State at Miami	+22.5	55.0	L 14 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Florida State vs North Carolina	+2.5	50.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/9	Florida State at Notre Dame	+25.5	44.5	L 3 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-33.0	44.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida State vs Florida	+17.5	45.5	L 11 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)	15.4	40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)	28	42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)	26.3	35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)	24.5	41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#125 (.06)	35% (128)		40% (103)	2.9 (92)	91	31% (130)	180	2.88 (131)	#112 (.25)	41% (56)		42% (62)	39% (52)	3.62 (46)	47.9	1.8	0.5
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	12	15.4	12.3	35.4%	2.88	1.8	15	271	91	180	2.9	46%	54%	40%	31%	21%	.06
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	19.3	37.6%	3.19	2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	34%	23%	.06

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	12	28	38.3	40.8%	3.62	0.5	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	42%	39%	14%	.25
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	25.7	38.6%	3.7	1.4	16	315	89	226	3.3	44%	56%	35%	42%	19%	.12

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	12	27:11	15.2	29%	63%	5.6	47.9	1.8	0.5	5.8	2	1	26.3
Duke	13	25:05	16.3	29%	38%	5.1	48.9	1.4	2	8.5	3.2	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	12	46% (101)	40% (103)	31.4	90.8	2.9	8 (130)	.07 (101)	2.9 (92)	68% (103)	15% (130)	0.87 (118)
DUKE Defense	13	52% (81)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.06 (35)	2.74 (28)	59% (6)	15% (2)	0.91 (38)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	12	56% (119)	42% (62)	-	-	-	-	.2 (109)	3.06 (81)	80% (111)	10% (77)	1.1 (114)
DUKE Offense	13	44% (110)	35% (129)	27.5	89.2	3.3	13 (105)	-.07 (133)	2.47 (131)	78% (32)	10% (78)	0.74 (131)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	12	54% (35)	31% (130)	14.9	29.6	180.3	6.1	12.1	11 (122)	13 (103)	.04 (130)	1.8 (20)	39% (133)	26% (113)	.24 (102)	6% (62)	2.1 (28)
DUKE Defense	13	48% (53)	34% (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.06 (7)	1.5 (39)	34% (35)	29% (41)	.27 (53)	7% (28)	2.1 (69)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	12	44% (15)	39% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.34 (110)	1.8 (120)	33% (45)	34% (110)	.52 (127)	5% (116)	2.3 (121)
DUKE Offense	13	56% (24)	42% (69)	19.6	32.5	226.1	7	11.5	26 (26)	12 (85)	.28 (55)	1.6 (56)	32% (73)	29% (98)	.3 (82)	9% (129)	2 (78)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -4.89 Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -3.2 Duke: 5.6

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 28
Florida State 18

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 29
Florida State 18

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Duke 30
Florida State 18

Total Points: 48

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/18	Duke	23	Florida State	16	Duke -2.5	Duke	43.0	Under
2023	10/21	Florida State	38	Duke	20	Florida State -14.0	Florida State	49.0	Over
2020	12/12	Florida State	56	Duke	35	Florida State -3	Florida State	56.5	Over
2017	10/14	Duke	10	Florida State	17	Florida State -7	NA	45.5	Under
2013	12/07	Florida State	45	Duke	7	Florida State -27.5	Florida State	0
2012	10/27	Florida State	48	Duke	7
2011	10/15	Duke	16	Florida State	41
2007	10/27	Florida State	25	Duke	6
2006	10/14	Duke	24	Florida State	51
2005	10/22	Duke	24	Florida State	55
2004	11/06	Florida State	29	Duke	7
2003	09/27	Duke	7	Florida State	56
2002	09/21	Florida State	48	Duke	17
2001	09/01	Duke	13	Florida State	55
2000	10/13	Florida State	63	Duke	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	1	1	2 Overs
Florida State	14	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	4 - 0	4 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 9	0 - 4	0 - 0	0 - 4

(#83) FSU at (#50) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	FSU	DUKE
Power RatePwr	#83	#50
SP+SP+	#83	#44
Perf GradeGrade	#120	#59
OffenseOff	#124	#90
DefenseDef	#111	#25
Spec TeamsST	#19	#68
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#13	#65

Florida State Notes(12/12) Signed QB Castellanos (BC), back w/ Gus (UCF)
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad
(9/30) DJ's hand inj may be long term
Florida State Injury Report

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

Florida State on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	DUKE Def
Perf GradePerf	#124	#25
SuccessSuc	#128	#16
ExplosiveExp	#58	#22
PPAPPA	#125	#10
PowerPwr	#120	#17
SP+SP+	#114	#31
Pts POPPO	#131	#17
HavocHav	#129	#2

Florida State Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#124	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#103	#51
Run ExplRExp	#118	#38
PPAExp	#101	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#92	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#85	#16
TackleTak	-	#73

Florida State Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	FSU Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#130	#5
Pass ExplPExl	#20	#39
PPAExp	#130	#7
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#76	#37
F7 HavocF7	#130	#2
DB HavocDB	#62	#28

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	FSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#90	#111
SuccessSuc	#116	#56
ExplosiveExp	#84	#114
PPAPPA	#109	#112
PowerPwr	#113	#87
SP+SP+	#71	#58
Pts POPPO	#90	#46
HavocHav	#115	#98

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	FSU Def
Run GameRun	#122	#106
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#62
Run ExplRExp	#131	#114
PPAExp	#133	#109
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#81
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#88
TackleTak	-	#47

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	FSU Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#108
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#52
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#120
PPAExp	#55	#110
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#68	#93
F7 HavocF7	#78	#77
DB HavocDB	#129	#116

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

FSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 56°

Rematch from Week 8
Duke -2.5 (43.0)
Duke won vs Florida State this year (23-16)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Florida State last year (23-16)
Florida State beat Duke in 2023 (38-20)

FSU's OC Alex Atkins (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8
Brock Glenn	51	114	45%	597	4	5	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lawrance Toafili	109	456	3	4.2	28
Kam Davis	52	173	0	3.3	16
Luke Kromenhoek	63	113	0	1.8	42
Brock Glenn	35	97	0	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ja'Khi Douglas	32	519	4	16.2	71
Malik Benson (Tr)	25	311	1	12.4	67
Lawrance Toafili	25	215	0	8.6	32
Hykeem Williams	16	187	1	11.7	33

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Adam Fuller (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	0	2
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
K.J. Kirkland	45	1	0	0	2
Blake Nichelson	45	4	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Patrick Payton	32	10	4	4	0
Joshua Farmer	28	8	4	6	0
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)	25	6	4	3	0
Darrell Jackson	28	4	4	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fentrell Cypress II	24	1	0	1	5
Azareye'h Thomas	51	2	0	2	4
Kevin Knowles II	31	1	1	1	4

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7