Florida State at Duke Game Matchup

Florida State Seminoles at Duke Blue Devils

Friday, October 18th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
Duke -2.5 (43.0) (-142) Open: -3.0
Duke 23 - Florida State: 16 (ACC)

Seminoles (2 - 10) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (31 - 17)
Avg Score : 15 - 28 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)

FSU coming off BYE
DUKE coming off BYE
Our Line: Duke -10.5 (SP+ DUKE -9)
Projected Score: FSU: 18 - DUKE: 28 (47)
DUKE Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
FSU Travel: 493 miles

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (26 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
FSU Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Florida State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Florida State vs Georgia Tech	-10.0	54.5	L 21 - 24	U	N
Mon 9/2	Florida State vs Boston College	-16.5	50.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Florida State vs Memphis	-7.0	52.0	L 12 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/21	Florida State vs California	-3.0	44.0	W 14 - 9	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Florida State at SMU	+6.0	46.0	L 16 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/5	Florida State vs Clemson	+16.5	47.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Florida State at Duke	+2.5	43.0	L 16 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/26	Florida State at Miami	+22.5	55.0	L 14 - 36	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Florida State vs North Carolina	+2.5	50.5	L 11 - 35	U	N
Sat 11/9	Florida State at Notre Dame	+25.5	44.5	L 3 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Florida State vs Charleston Southern	-33.0	44.5	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Florida State vs Florida	+17.5	45.5	L 11 - 31	U	N

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU	#60 (.21)	41% (79)	15.4	39% (113)	2.64 (128)	150	43% (54)	251	4.45 (25)	#13 (.09)	36% (9)	28	40% (38)	32% (1)	3.5 (47)	56.6	0.6	1.2
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	26.3	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	24.5	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
FSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Offense	14	15.4	12.3	41.3%	4.45	0.6	20	401	150	251	4.5	47%	53%	39%	43%	15%	.21
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	19.3	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
FSU Defense	14	28	38.3	35.5%	3.5	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	40%	32%	21%	.09
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	25.7	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Florida State	14	29:23	19.6	36%	48%	6.1	56.6	0.6	1.2	6.7	3.2	2	29.5
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Offense	14	47% (93)	39% (113)	33.1	150.1	4.5	32 (10)	.07 (111)	2.64 (128)	63% (123)	9% (52)	1.06 (35)
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
FSU Defense	14	49% (49)	40% (38)	-	-	-	-	.12 (51)	2.75 (19)	77% (96)	12% (20)	1.07 (102)
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Offense	14	53% (39)	43% (54)	18.6	30.9	250.6	8.1	13.5	25 (37)	4 (2)	.34 (46)	1.6 (48)	32% (78)	31% (66)	.36 (61)	6% (67)	2.2 (32)
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
FSU Defense	14	51% (90)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.06 (4)	1.6 (65)	36% (16)	27% (28)	.22 (22)	9% (2)	1.9 (24)
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Florida State's Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Florida State's Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
2024 Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Florida State's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Florida State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -4.89 Duke: 6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: -3.2 Duke: 5.6

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Florida State Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.3
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.3

Florida State's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 28
Florida State 18

Projected Total Points: 47

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 25.7
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.3

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/18	Duke	23	Florida State	16	Duke	Duke -2.5	Duke	43.0	Under
2023	10/21	Florida State	38	Duke	20	Florida State	Florida State -14.0	Florida State	49.0	Over
2020	12/12	Florida State	56	Duke	35	Florida State	Florida State -3	Florida State	56.5	Over
2017	10/14	Duke	10	Florida State	17	Florida State	Florida State -7	NA	45.5	Under
2013	12/07	Florida State	45	Duke	7	Florida State	Florida State -27.5	Florida State	0
2012	10/27	Florida State	48	Duke	7	Florida State
2011	10/15	Duke	16	Florida State	41	Florida State
2007	10/27	Florida State	25	Duke	6	Florida State
2006	10/14	Duke	24	Florida State	51	Florida State
2005	10/22	Duke	24	Florida State	55	Florida State
2004	11/06	Florida State	29	Duke	7	Florida State
2003	09/27	Duke	7	Florida State	56	Florida State
2002	09/21	Florida State	48	Duke	17	Florida State
2001	09/01	Duke	13	Florida State	55	Florida State
2000	10/13	Florida State	63	Duke	14	Florida State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	1	1	2 Overs
Florida State	14	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 6	4 - 0	4 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	6 - 9	0 - 4	0 - 0	0 - 4

(#83) Florida State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -4.89 #83
Offense Rating: 11.77 #120
Defense Rating: 12.02 #87
Overall SP+ Rating: -3.2 #83
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.1 #114
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.3 #58
Talent Rating: 950.00 #9
Blue Chip Ratio: 43% #13
Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 35%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 2.88 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.62 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida State Notes
(12/2) Hired HC Gus Malzahn as OC for '25 season
(12/2) Hired DC White (Neb DC, + Cuse/ASU/SDSU)
(11/18) Have not scored 17+ pts since opener (21)
(11/10) Fired OC/OLC Atkins & DC Fuller after ND loss
(11/10) Scored 60 pts in last 5 games. Fired OC/OLC
(11/2) Fmr WR K.C. told croots not to play for Dugans
(10/28) Now 5 losing season in past 7 years
(10/18) QB Glenn is a noodle armed turnover machine
(10/18) Off is worse out of Bye. WR/OL worst in P4
(10/18) Def/team still fighting, but Off is laughably bad

Florida State Ratings Matchup Duke

Power #83

#50

Off #120

#113

Def #87

#17

Talent #9

#56

SP+ #83

#44

SP+ Off #114

#71

SP+ Def #58

#31

Rematch from Week 8
Duke -2.5 (43.0)
Duke won vs Florida State this year (23-16)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Florida State last year (23-16)
Florida State beat Duke in 2023 (38-20)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 56°

Team Information
Injuries: FSU | DUKE
Depth Chart: FSU | DUKE
Rosters: FSU | DUKE

(#50) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.64 #50
Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31
Talent Rating: 716.00 #56
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Duke Notes
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see

Florida State's OC Alex Atkins

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
D.J. Uiagalelei (Tr)	84	156	54%	1065	4	6	6.8
Brock Glenn	51	114	45%	597	4	5	5.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	YPC	LONG
Kam Davis	52	173	3.3	16
Luke Kromenhoek	63	113	1.8	42
Brock Glenn	35	97	2.8	17
Samuel Singleton	21	93	4.4	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Malik Benson (Tr)	25	311	1	12.4	67
Hykeem Williams	16	187	1	11.7	33
Landen Thomas	14	173	1	12.4	35
Jalen Brown (Tr)	8	75	0	9.4	21

View Florida State's Full Roster

Florida State's DC Adam Fuller

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	2
K.J. Kirkland	45	1	0	2
Blake Nichelson	45	4	1	0
Cam Riley (Tr)	37	4	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marvin Jones Jr. (Tr)	25	6	4	3	0
Patrick Payton	32	10	4	4	0
Darrell Jackson	28	4	4	4	1
Edwin Joseph	13	4	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Omar Graham Jr.	37	4	1	1	3
Quindarrius Jones	11	1	0	0	3
Shyheim Brown	62	1	0	0	2

Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65
Star Thomas (Tr)	20	153	1	7.7	29
Javon Harvey (Tr)	11	101	1	9.2	16

View Duke's Full Roster

Duke's DC Jonathan Patke

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5
Tre Freeman	67	4	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3
Aaron Hall	43	9	4	6	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5
Kimari Robinson	23	5	0	1	4