Duke at Wake Forest - 2024 Matchup Preview

Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Duke -3.5 (53.5) (-165) Open: -2.5 | 54.5
Duke 23 - Wake Forest: 17 (ACC)

Blue Devils (9 - 4) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Manny Diaz (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WAKE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Duke -9.5 (SP+ DUKE -11.5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 34 - WAKE: 24 (58)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 74 miles

Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 6 - 1)
Coach Dave Clawson (63 - 61)
Avg Score : 26 - 33 (27 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
WAKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Duke vs Elon	-24.5	47.5	W 26 - 3	U	N
Fri 9/6	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	37.5	W 26 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Duke vs UConn	-17.5	46.5	W 26 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/21	Duke at Middle Tennessee	-14.5	51.0	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Duke vs North Carolina	+1.0	55.5	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Duke at Georgia Tech	+10.0	52.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 10/18	Duke vs Florida State	-2.5	43.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Duke vs SMU	+11.5	49.5	L 27 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Duke at Miami	+21.0	55.5	L 31 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/9	Duke at NC State	+3.5	51.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Duke vs Virginia Tech	+2.5	45.5	W 31 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Duke at Wake Forest	-3.5	53.5	W 23 - 17	U	Y
Thu 1/2	Duke vs Ole Miss	+17.5	50.5	L 20 - 52	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Wake Forest's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Wake Forest vs North Carolina A&T	-20.5
Sat 9/7	Wake Forest vs Virginia	+1.5	55.5	L 30 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Wake Forest vs Ole Miss	+20.5	65.5	L 6 - 40	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Wake Forest vs Louisiana	-3.0	59.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Wake Forest at NC State	+4.0	52.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Wake Forest vs Clemson	+21.0	63.0	L 14 - 49	U	N
Sat 10/19	Wake Forest at UConn	-2.5	55.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wake Forest at Stanford	-3.0	53.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/8	Wake Forest vs California	+7.5	54.5	L 36 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/16	Wake Forest at North Carolina	+10.5	64.5	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Wake Forest at Miami	+23.5	67.0	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/30	Wake Forest vs Duke	+3.5	53.5	L 17 - 23	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)	26.3	35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)	24.5	41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2
WAKE	#104 (.13)	42% (81)	25.7	43% (79)	3 (79)	131	41% (75)	240	3.2 (121)	#118 (.27)	51% (134)	32.5	48% (110)	53% (133)	4.12 (99)	45.9	1.8	1.4

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2
WAKE	#104 (.13)	42% (81)		43% (79)	3 (79)	131	41% (75)	240	3.2 (121)	#118 (.27)	51% (134)		48% (110)	53% (133)	4.12 (99)	45.9	1.8	1.4

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	13	26.3	28.4	38.6%	3.7	1.4	16	315	89	226	3.3	44%	56%	35%	42%	19%	.12
WAKE Defense	12	32.5	34.7	50.7%	4.12	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	48%	53%	12%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	13	24.5	26	37.6%	3.19	2	-	-	-	-	-	52%	48%	41%	34%	23%	.06
WAKE Offense	12	25.7	26.6	41.9%	3.2	1.8	22	372	131	240	3.6	48%	52%	43%	41%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	13	25:05	16.3	29%	38%	5.1	48.9	1.4	2	8.5	3.2	1	31.2
Wake Forest	12	28:51	21.8	39%	64%	5.1	45.9	1.8	1.4	4.9	1.7	2	29

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	13	44% (110)	35% (129)	27.5	89.2	3.3	13 (105)	-.07 (133)	2.47 (131)	78% (32)	10% (78)	0.74 (131)
WAKE Defense	12	44% (6)	48% (110)	-	-	-	-	.18 (101)	3.13 (88)	80% (112)	8% (110)	0.96 (58)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	13	52% (81)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.06 (35)	2.74 (28)	59% (6)	15% (2)	0.91 (38)
WAKE Offense	12	48% (86)	43% (79)	36.4	131.4	3.6	18 (78)	.05 (106)	3 (79)	81% (18)	10% (70)	0.92 (88)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	13	56% (24)	42% (69)	19.6	32.5	226.1	7	11.5	26 (26)	12 (85)	.28 (55)	1.6 (56)	32% (73)	29% (98)	.3 (82)	9% (129)	2 (78)
WAKE Defense	12	56% (129)	53% (133)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.36 (116)	1.3 (2)	26% (130)	40% (132)	.41 (106)	4% (131)	1.8 (18)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	13	48% (53)	34% (5)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (39)	.06 (7)	1.5 (39)	34% (35)	29% (41)	.27 (53)	7% (28)	2.1 (69)
WAKE Offense	12	52% (50)	41% (75)	20.7	33.6	240.1	7.2	11.6	17 (79)	13 (103)	.23 (83)	1.5 (115)	31% (63)	28% (102)	.15 (125)	7% (93)	1.9 (103)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 2.68 #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.10 #113
Duke's Defense Rating: 3.83 #17
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Duke's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Duke's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.6 #44
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #71
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.3 #31

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 2.68 Wake Forest: -5.53

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 5.6 Wake Forest: -5.7

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -5.53 #102
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 16.79 #98
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 16.26 #115
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Wake Forest's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Wake Forest's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.7 #93
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #77
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.8 #103

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 1 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 34
Wake Forest 24

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 35
Wake Forest 32

Total Points: 68

Based on Entire Season
Duke 30
Wake Forest 26

Total Points: 56

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 25.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.6
Defense: 32.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.7

Wake Forest's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Duke	49	Wake Forest	32	Duke -2.5	Duke	54.0	Over
2024	11/30	Wake Forest	17	Duke	23	Duke -3.5	Duke	53.5	Under
2023	11/02	Duke	24	Wake Forest	21	Duke -6.5	Wake Forest	41.0	Over
2022	11/26	Duke	34	Wake Forest	31	Wake Forest -3	Duke	67.0	Under
2021	10/30	Wake Forest	45	Duke	7	Wake Forest -16.5	Wake Forest	71.5	Under
2019	11/23	Wake Forest	39	Duke	27	Wake Forest -6.5	Wake Forest	50.0	Over
2018	11/24	Duke	7	Wake Forest	59	Duke -9.5	Wake Forest	61.5	Over
2017	11/25	Wake Forest	23	Duke	31	Wake Forest -10.5	Duke	59.0	Under
2016	09/10	Duke	14	Wake Forest	24	Duke -8.5	Wake Forest	45.5	Under
2015	11/28	Wake Forest	21	Duke	27	Duke -4	Duke	45.0	Over
2014	11/29	Duke	41	Wake Forest	21	Duke -18	Duke	0
2013	11/23	Wake Forest	21	Duke	28	Duke -5.5	Duke	0
2012	09/29	Wake Forest	27	Duke	34
2011	10/22	Duke	23	Wake Forest	24
2010	09/11	Wake Forest	54	Duke	48
2009	11/28	Duke	34	Wake Forest	45
2008	11/01	Wake Forest	33	Duke	30
2007	10/06	Duke	36	Wake Forest	41
2006	09/09	Wake Forest	14	Duke	13
2005	10/29	Duke	6	Wake Forest	44
2004	10/30	Wake Forest	24	Duke	22
2003	10/18	Duke	13	Wake Forest	42
2002	10/12	Wake Forest	36	Duke	10
2001	10/13	Duke	35	Wake Forest	42
2000	11/03	Wake Forest	28	Duke	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wake Forest	16	5	5 Overs
Duke	9	7	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	5 - 7	4 - 4	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	7 - 5	3 - 1	4 - 4

(#50) DUKE at (#102) WAKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	WAKE
Power RatePwr	#50	#102
SP+SP+	#44	#93
Perf GradeGrade	#59	#64
OffenseOff	#90	#67
DefenseDef	#25	#66
Spec TeamsST	#68	#53
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#97

Duke Notes(12/11) Signed QB Mensah (Tulane QB '24)
(11/25) 2 str W's, Murphy 332 yds, 3 TD/3 Int in VT W
(11/13) Stopped bleeding w/ NC St W, Murphy good
(11/2) Def torched but QB Murphy great @ Miami
(10/27) Pumpkin time, 6-0 TOs vs SMU and still L
(10/22) Def stop rate 75% (#11) into SMU game
(10/18) Beat FSU w/ < 4 ypp. Awful Off, Def v good
(10/18) Bowl eligible. Incredible job by Diaz in 1st yr
(9/28) Big comeback vs UNC. Rgame solid, Murphy meh
(9/23) Gutty W vs N'W/UConn. Def great so far
(9/23) Murphy eff but statue. Great 4-0 start, we'll see
(8/19) New QB Maalik Murphy (Tex), WR Moore good
Duke Injury Report

Wake Forest Notes(12/18) Hired HC Dickert (Wazzu)
(12/16) HC Clawson stepping down after 11 years
(11/25) Off abysmal vs Miami. Def all 40+ pts per in Nov
(11/18) Run D torched by NC. 2 QBs meh, Rgame bad
(11/13) Def (pass) torched by Cal, Rgame is awful, QB OK
(10/12) Have no answers other than pray for TOs
(10/6) Def #'s are near worst in CFB. Big W @ NC St
(9/28) Even game w/ Louisiana, Bach good, Rgame good
(9/8) Bach 403 yds but bad L (UVA), Pass D awful.
(8/19) New QB Bachmeier, WR ? w/ leader gone (Neb)
(8/19) 3 OL return off great unit LY, RB mid at best
(8/19) Def avg LY, bad in red zone, DL good, DBs big ?
Wake Forest Injury Report

Duke on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	WAKE Def
Perf GradePerf	#90	#66
SuccessSuc	#116	#134
ExplosiveExp	#84	#12
PPAPPA	#109	#118
PowerPwr	#113	#115
SP+SP+	#71	#103
Pts POPPO	#90	#99
HavocHav	#115	#130

Duke Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#122	#53
Run SuccessRSuc	#129	#110
Run ExplRExp	#131	#58
PPAExp	#133	#101
Run BlockR Blk	#86	-
OL YdsOLY	#131	#88
Stuff RateStuff	#130	#98
TackleTak	-	#24

Duke Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat	DUKE Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#59	#55
Pass SuccessPSuc	#69	#133
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#2
PPAExp	#55	#116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#68	#110
F7 HavocF7	#78	#110
DB HavocDB	#129	#131

Wake Forest on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	DUKE Def
Perf GradePerf	#67	#25
SuccessSuc	#81	#16
ExplosiveExp	#111	#22
PPAPPA	#104	#10
PowerPwr	#98	#17
SP+SP+	#77	#31
Pts POPPO	#121	#17
HavocHav	#82	#2

Wake Forest Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#120	#63
Run SuccessRSuc	#79	#51
Run ExplRExp	#88	#38
PPAExp	#106	#35
Run BlockR Blk	#22	-
OL YdsOLY	#79	#28
Stuff RateStuff	#55	#16
TackleTak	-	#73

Wake Forest Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	WAKE Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#57	#8
Pass SuccessPSuc	#75	#5
Pass ExplPExl	#115	#39
PPAExp	#83	#7
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#37	#37
F7 HavocF7	#70	#2
DB HavocDB	#93	#28

Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 42° - Wind: 10 mph

Rematch from Week 14
Duke 3.5 (53.5)
Duke won at Wake Forest this year (23-17)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Wake Forest last year (23-17)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2023 (24-21)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2022 (34-31)

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Maalik Murphy (Tr)	254	421	60%	2932	26	12	7.0
Henry Belin IV	26	45	58%	243	2	1	5.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Star Thomas (Tr)	213	871	7	4.1	44
Peyton Jones	82	317	3	3.9	27
Jaquez Moore	32	86	1	2.7	18
Henry Belin IV	11	39	0	3.5	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	55	861	8	15.7	58
Eli Pancol	60	798	9	13.3	86
Que'Sean Brown	41	445	2	10.9	43
Sahmir Hagans	47	413	3	8.8	65

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ozzie Nicholas (Tr)	100	4	1	4	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Terry Moore	71	7	1	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Wesley Williams	47	13	7	9	2
Alex Howard (Tr)	89	15	7	6	1
Cameron Bergeron	84	10	5	7	2
Vincent Anthony	25	10	5	13	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Stinson	67	4	2	3	8
Chandler Rivers	54	8	1	3	8
Joshua Pickett	38	4	0	0	7

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	224	357	63%	2593	16	10	7.3
Michael Kern	24	45	53%	288	1	3	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	228	1048	11	4.6	60
Tate Carney	82	335	6	4.1	18
Hank Bachmeier (Tr)	96	141	1	1.5	20
Ty Clark III	13	57	0	4.4	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Taylor Morin	64	756	2	11.8	51
Horatio Fields	39	463	4	11.9	42
Deuce Alexander	36	400	2	11.1	38
Donavon Greene	23	380	3	16.5	45

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Andersen	122	1	0	1	1
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1
Dylan Hazen	78	6	1	3	0
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	0	0	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jasheen Davis	31	11	6	5	0
Kevin Pointer	33	7	4	8	1
Bryce Ganious	26	5	3	7	0
Branson Combs (Tr)	83	6	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
C'Darius Kelley	20	0	4
Jamare Glasker	37	3	4
Davaughn Patterson	74	4	3