Duke at Virginia - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 16th 2021 (12:30 PM EDT)
Virginia -10.5 (69.5)
Virginia 48 - Duke: 0 (ACC)

Blue Devils (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach David Cutcliffe (76 - 89)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UVA is playing their 7th straight game
DUKE is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: -13 (SP+ UVA -21)
Projected Score: DUKE: 27 - UVA: 31 (58)
UVA Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
DUKE Travel: 143 miles

Cavaliers (6 - 6) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Bronco Mendenhall (32 - 33)
Avg Score : 31 - 20 (36 - 18 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
DUKE Players
UVA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Duke's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/3	Duke at Charlotte	-6.0	60.0	L 28 - 31	U	N
Fri 9/10	Duke vs North Carolina A&T	-22.5	55.5	W 45 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/18	Duke vs Northwestern	+2.5	50.0	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/25	Duke vs Kansas	-16.5	57.5	W 52 - 33	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Duke at North Carolina	+19.5	74.0	L 7 - 38	U	N
Sat 10/9	Duke vs Georgia Tech	+4.5	60.5	L 27 - 31	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Duke at Virginia	+10.5	69.5	L 0 - 48	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/30	Duke at Wake Forest	+16.5	71.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/6	Duke vs Pittsburgh	+21.0	64.5	L 29 - 54	O	N
Sat 11/13	Duke at Virginia Tech	+13.5	50.5	L 17 - 48	O	N
Thu 11/18	Duke vs Louisville	+20.0	60.0	L 22 - 62	O	N
Sat 11/27	Duke vs Miami	+20.5	67.0	L 10 - 47	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule

Virginia's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Virginia vs William & Mary	-30.5	52.5	W 43 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Virginia vs Illinois	-10.5	57.0	W 42 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Virginia at North Carolina	+7.5	67.0	L 39 - 59	O	N
Fri 9/24	Virginia vs Wake Forest	-3.5	71.0	L 17 - 37	U	N
Thu 9/30	Virginia at Miami	+3.5	63.5	W 30 - 28	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Virginia at Louisville	+2.5	69.5	W 34 - 33	U	Y
Sat 10/16	Virginia vs Duke	-10.5	69.5	W 48 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Virginia vs Georgia Tech	-6.5	66.0	W 48 - 40	O	Y
Sat 10/30	Virginia at BYU	+2.5	66.5	L 49 - 66	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/13	Virginia vs Notre Dame	+7.5	62.5	L 3 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/20	Virginia at Pittsburgh	+12.5	69.0	L 38 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/27	Virginia vs Virginia Tech	-7.0	63.5	L 24 - 29	U	N
Wed 12/29	Virginia vs SMU	-2.5	71.0

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE	.06	39%	34.6	39%	2.33	157	40%	222	2.68	.28	43%	29.4	45%	40%	4.55	50.4	3.5	1.8
UVA	.19	44%	30.8	48%	3.42	163	40%	261	4.05	.2	41%	19.6	37%	44%	3.04	48.3	1.9	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
DUKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UVA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Offense	11	34.6	37	39.1%	2.68	3.5	22	379	157	222	3.9	47%	53%	39%	40%	20%	.06
UVA Defense	10	19.6	17.7	40.6%	3.04	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	50%	50%	37%	44%	18%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
DUKE Defense	11	29.4	27.5	42.8%	4.55	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	45%	40%	16%	.28
UVA Offense	10	30.8	36.4	44%	4.05	1.9	24	423	163	261	4.5	46%	54%	48%	40%	14%	.19

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Duke	11	28:29	21.5	39%	48%	5.6	50.4	3.5	1.8	6.1	2.8	1	29.3
Virginia	10	31:04	23.6	37%	64%	5.3	48.3	1.9	1.8	7.2	3.2	2	29.2

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense	11	47%	39%	39.8	156.7	3.9	19	.03	2.33	68%	13%	1.05
UVA Defense	10	50%	37%	-	-	-	-	.04	2.6	76%	12%	0.92

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense	11	53%	45%	-	-	-	-	.26	3.15	78%	11%	1.24
UVA Offense	10	46%	48%	36.6	162.9	4.5	16	.2	3.42	77%	7%	0.93

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense	11	53%	40%	19.9	35.5	221.9	6.3	11.2	11	19	.12	1.5	31%	33%	.28	7%	1.9
UVA Defense	10	50%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.9	34%	32%	.35	6%	2.3

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense	11	47%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.3	1.8	32%	35%	.51	5%	2.1
UVA Offense	10	54%	40%	22.1	37.9	260.5	6.9	11.8	22	14	.17	1.6	29%	31%	.33	8%	1.9

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: NR
Duke's Offense Rating: NR
Duke's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #60
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Duke's 2021 Expected Record: -
Duke's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.5 #114
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.4 #97
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.3 #119

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: Virginia: 6.1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: -13.5 Virginia: 7.2

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: 6.1 NR
Virginia's Offense Rating: NR
Virginia's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #53
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Virginia's 2021 Expected Record: -
Virginia's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 7.2 #55
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 39.3 #8
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #100

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2021 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 0 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Virginia 31
Duke 27

Projected Total Points: 58

Virginia Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.4
Defense: 19.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Virginia's 2021 Record
Record: 6 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/06	Virginia	20	Duke	27	Virginia -3.5	Duke	58.5	Under
2025	11/15	Duke	17	Virginia	34	Duke -5.5	Virginia	59.5	Under
2023	11/18	Virginia	30	Duke	27	Duke -4	Virginia	48.5	Over
2022	10/01	Duke	38	Virginia	17	Duke -2	Duke	55.0	Push
2021	10/16	Virginia	48	Duke	0	Virginia -10.5	Virginia	69.5	Under
2020	09/26	Virginia	38	Duke	20	Virginia -3.5	Virginia	44.5	Over
2019	10/19	Virginia	48	Duke	14	Virginia -3.5	Virginia	45.0	Over
2018	10/20	Duke	14	Virginia	28	Duke -6.5	Virginia	45.5	Under
2017	10/07	Virginia	28	Duke	21	Duke -1.5	Virginia	53.0	Under
2016	10/01	Duke	20	Virginia	34	Duke -5	Virginia	60.5	Under
2015	11/21	Virginia	42	Duke	34	Virginia -2.5	Virginia	53.5	Over
2014	10/18	Duke	20	Virginia	13	Duke -5	Duke	0
2013	10/19	Virginia	22	Duke	35	Virginia -4	Duke	0
2012	10/06	Duke	42	Virginia	17
2011	11/12	Virginia	31	Duke	21
2010	11/06	Duke	55	Virginia	48
2009	10/31	Virginia	17	Duke	28
2008	09/27	Duke	31	Virginia	3
2007	09/08	Virginia	24	Duke	13
2006	09/30	Duke	0	Virginia	37
2005	09/24	Virginia	38	Duke	7
2004	10/23	Duke	16	Virginia	37
2003	08/30	Virginia	27	Duke	0
2002	10/05	Duke	22	Virginia	27
2001	09/29	Virginia	31	Duke	10
2000	09/15	Duke	10	Virginia	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Virginia	18	9	4 Overs
Duke	8	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	16 - 10	8 - 5	6 - 5	2 - 0
Road Teams	10 - 16	5 - 8	0 - 2	5 - 6

(#) DUKE at (#) UVA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	DUKE	UVA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#114	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#117	#69
OffenseOff	#96	#19
DefenseDef	#124	#121
Spec TeamsST	#24	#63
TalentTal	#60	#53
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Duke Injury Report

Virginia Injury Report

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#96	#121
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#97	#100
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
Run GameRun	#115	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#69	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#59

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	UVA Def
Pass GamePass	#96	#61
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#74	#128
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Virginia on Offense


CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#124
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#8	#119
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Virginia Run Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#32	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#30	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

Virginia Pass Game


CategoryCat	UVA Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#11	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#34	#113
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
UVA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'21 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'21 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scott Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 7
Virginia -10.5 (69.5)
Virginia won vs Duke this year (48-0)

Previous Matchups
Virginia beat Duke last year (34-17)
Virginia beat Duke in 2023 (30-27)

DUKE's OC Re'Quan Boyette (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Ben Albert (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

UVA's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Virginia's Full Roster

UVA's DC Kelly Poppinga (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD