Wake Forest at Duke - 2025 Matchup Preview
Wake Forest logo Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, November 29th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Duke -2.5 (54.0) (-140)  Open: -3.0 | 55.0
Duke 49 - Wake Forest: 32  (ACC)

 
Demon Deacons (8 - 4) (8 - 4 - 0)
Coach Jake Dickert (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 22 (25 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 4.4 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
WAKE is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Duke -0.5  (SP+ DUKE -0)

Projected Score: WAKE: 27 - DUKE: 27 (54)
DUKE Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
WAKE Travel: 74 miles
Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (32 - 31 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Wake Forest's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Wake Forest vs Kennesaw State-17.551.5W 10 - 9UN
Sat 9/6 Wake Forest vs Western Carolina-17.560.5W 42 - 10UY
Thu 9/11 Wake Forest vs NC State+7.552.5L 24 - 34ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/27 Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech+13.553.5L 29 - 30OY
Sat 10/4 Wake Forest at Virginia Tech+4.551.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 10/11 Wake Forest at Oregon State-1.547.5W 39 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/25 Wake Forest vs SMU+6.553.5W 13 - 12UY
Sat 11/1 Wake Forest at Florida State+12.550.5L 7 - 42UN
Sat 11/8 Wake Forest at Virginia+7.048.5W 16 - 9UY
Sat 11/15 Wake Forest vs North Carolina-3.537.5W 28 - 12OY
Sat 11/22 Wake Forest vs Delaware-17.549.5W 52 - 14OY
Sat 11/29 Wake Forest at Duke+2.554.0L 32 - 49ON
Fri 1/2 Wake Forest vs Mississippi State+3.053.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wake Forest's Schedule
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#91 (.13)38% (117)26.839% (107)2.74 (108)15737% (115)2323.16 (119)#7 (.02)35% (10)21.537% (13)33% (8)3.19 (32)68.91.71.3
DUKE#26 (.25)46% (32)34.644% (61)2.77 (105)12347% (22)2624.28 (28)#120 (.25)44% (99)29.443% (80)46% (116)4.45 (129)58.40.91.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WAKE#104 (.13)42% (81)43% (79)3 (79)13141% (75)2403.2 (121)#118 (.27)51% (134)48% (110)53% (133)4.12 (99)45.91.81.4
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Offense1226.824.837.9%3.161.7193891572324.550%48%39%37%16%.13
DUKE Defense1429.431.343.9%4.451.5 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%18%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WAKE Defense1221.527.434.9%3.191.3 - - - - - 46%52%37%33%18%.02
DUKE Offense1434.632.245.6%4.280.9213851232624.145%54%44%47%15%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Wake Forest1228:5218.738%55%7.368.91.71.37.32.1230.9
Duke1427:2020.839%76%658.40.91.56.31.9331
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Offense1250% (62)39% (107)34.8156.84.521 (49).11 (70)2.74 (108)77% (36)10% (77)1.16 (10)
DUKE Defense1448% (48)43% (80) - - - - .12 (86)2.73 (36)76% (104)12% (15)1.03 (100)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WAKE Defense1246% (23)37% (13) - - - - -.01 (13)2.47 (11)63% (16)12% (12)0.89 (31)
DUKE Offense1445% (109)44% (61)29.9123.14.124 (60).07 (93)2.77 (105)70% (83)10% (89)0.96 (67)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Offense1248% (74)37% (115)17.731.1232.37.513.215 (106)10 (34).22 (84)1.7 (26)33% (89)27% (105).28 (78)6% (84)2.2 (15)
DUKE Defense1450% (87)46% (116) - - - - - - 13 (22).41 (124)1.7 (111)32% (54)34% (122).46 (130)6% (70)2.1 (91)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WAKE Defense1252% (108)33% (8) - - - - - - 4 (100).09 (10)1.5 (55)36% (14)27% (25).16 (15)7% (46)2 (66)
DUKE Offense1454% (23)47% (22)21.932.52628.11230 (14)5 (7).42 (21)1.6 (36)30% (52)34% (26).43 (24)5% (39)2.2 (20)

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: 11.13  #39
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 5.97  #86
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: -5.16  #14
2025 Talent Rating: 866.00  #35
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #65
Wake Forest's 2025 Expected Record: 8.6 - 4.4
Wake Forest's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.4  #56
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.4  #82
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #34

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 11.13   Duke: 8.38

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Wake Forest: 4.4   Duke: 4.8




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 8.38  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.47  #22
Duke's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5  #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #23
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #91

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 21.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.4

Wake Forest's 2025 Record
Record: 8 - 4
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 27
Wake Forest 27


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Wake Forest 27
Duke 24

Total Points: 50

Based on Entire Season
Duke 29
Wake Forest 28

Total Points: 57
Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.2
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 31.3

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/29Duke49Wake Forest32Duke -2.5Duke54.0Over
202411/30Wake Forest17Duke23Duke -3.5Duke53.5Under
202311/02Duke24Wake Forest21Duke -6.5Wake Forest41.0Over
202211/26Duke34Wake Forest31Wake Forest -3Duke67.0Under
202110/30Wake Forest45Duke7Wake Forest -16.5Wake Forest71.5Under
201911/23Wake Forest39Duke27Wake Forest -6.5Wake Forest50.0Over
201811/24Duke7Wake Forest59Duke -9.5Wake Forest61.5Over
201711/25Wake Forest23Duke31Wake Forest -10.5Duke59.0Under
201609/10Duke14Wake Forest24Duke -8.5Wake Forest45.5Under
201511/28Wake Forest21Duke27Duke -4Duke45.0Over
201411/29Duke41Wake Forest21Duke -18Duke0
201311/23Wake Forest21Duke28Duke -5.5Duke0
201209/29Wake Forest27Duke34
201110/22Duke23Wake Forest24
201009/11Wake Forest54Duke48
200911/28Duke34Wake Forest45
200811/01Wake Forest33Duke30
200710/06Duke36Wake Forest41
200609/09Wake Forest14Duke13
200510/29Duke6Wake Forest44
200410/30Wake Forest24Duke22
200310/18Duke13Wake Forest42
200210/12Wake Forest36Duke10
200110/13Duke35Wake Forest42
200011/03Wake Forest28Duke26
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke975 Overs
Wake Forest1655 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 135 - 74 - 41 - 3
Road Teams13 - 127 - 53 - 14 - 4

(#39) WAKE at (#50) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWAKEDUKE
Power RatePwr #39 #50
SP+SP+ #56 #53
Perf GradeGrade #62 #32
OffenseOff #113 #9
DefenseDef #18 #103
Spec TeamsST #10 #26
TalentTal #35 #48
Blue ChipsBC% #65 #54
Wake Forest Notes
(11/5) Ugly L @ FSU, Box score much closer, 11 pen/2 TO
(10/24) Robby Ashford ? again vs SMU, Purdie good vs OSU
(10/7) Great W over VT, Def held Hokies to 263 yds, 7-17 3rd
(9/11) Off fast start vs NC St, 2nd half went nowhere
(9/11) LBs are small, DL has to run fit well or busted
(9/11) Ashford 4 passes for 164, 32 others for 88 yds
(9/5) Def a bottom P5, Kenn St moved the ball
(8/30) Ashford decent #'s vs Kenn., but not an FBS QB
(8/24) QB1 Robby Ashford won starting job in camp
(7/31) HC Dickert good hire, but year 0, real bad
(7/30) OL 0/5 back. 5 portal starters added, all G5
(5/15) 89% of OL exp is from G5 portals
Wake Forest Injury Report
Duke Notes
(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report
Wake Forest on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #113 #103
SuccessSuc #117 #99
ExplosiveExp #5 #118
PPAPPA #91 #120
PowerPwr #86 #88
SP+SP+ #82 #91
Pts POPPO #119 #129
HavocHav #86 #28
Wake Forest Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #117 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #107 #80
Run ExplRExp #10 #100
PPAExp #70 #86
Run BlockR Blk #131 -
OL YdsOLY #108 #36
Stuff RateStuff #74 #13
TackleTak -  #88
Wake Forest Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 48%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat
WAKE OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #104 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #115 #116
Pass ExplPExl #26 #111
PPAExp #84 #124
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #27 #56
F7 HavocF7 #77 #15
DB HavocDB #84 #70
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffWAKE Def
Perf GradePerf #9 #18
SuccessSuc #32 #10
ExplosiveExp #25 #45
PPAPPA #26 #7
PowerPwr #22 #14
SP+SP+ #23 #34
Pts POPPO #28 #32
HavocHav #65 #20
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffWAKE Def
Run GameRun #47 #51
Run SuccessRSuc #61 #13
Run ExplRExp #67 #31
PPAExp #93 #13
Run BlockR Blk #21 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #11
Stuff RateStuff #113 #4
TackleTak -  #83
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatDUKE OffWAKE Def
Pass GamePass #6 #14
Pass SuccessPSuc #22 #8
Pass ExplPExl #36 #55
PPAExp #21 #10
Pass Block/RushP Blk #29 #20
F7 HavocF7 #89 #12
DB HavocDB #39 #46
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

WAKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 43°
Rematch from Week 14
Duke -2.5 (54.0)
Duke won vs Wake Forest this year (49-32)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat Wake Forest last year (23-17)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2023 (24-21)
Duke beat Wake Forest in 2022 (34-31)

  
WAKE's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Robby Ashford (Tr)17128959%2169977.5
Deshawn Purdie (Tr)418250%618637.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Demond Claiborne179905105.185
Robby Ashford (Tr)11650474.343
Ty Clark III5823234.015
Chris Barnes (Tr)13143011.078
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Barnes (Tr)39547314.070
Carlos Hernandez (Tr)34538315.893
Sterling Berkhalter (Tr)25382215.351
Micah Mays Jr.18302216.852

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Scottie Hazelton (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nick Andersen956107
Davaughn Patterson784039
Dylan Hazen689053
Aiden Hall667023
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Hardy (Tr)6515780
Nuer Gatkuoth (Tr)378680
Gabe Kirschke (Tr)328440
Mateen Ibirogba214230
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Davaughn Patterson784039
Karon Prunty (Tr)341018
Nick Andersen956107

DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)30544968%36463058.1
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard178962105.449
Anderson Castle (Tr)110470114.366
Jaquez Moore3919214.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)681069615.777
Que'Sean Brown53664312.544
Sahmir Hagans38467612.335
Jeremiah Hasley34404511.956

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver (Tr)815201
Luke Mergott817283
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall3910340
Elliott Schaper162200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123