NC State at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 14th 2023 (8:00 PM EDT)
Duke -3.5 (44.0) (-180) Open: -3.5 | 48.0
Duke 24 - NC State: 3 (ACC)

Wolfpack (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dave Doeren (74 - 55)
Avg Score : 26 - 21 (22 - 19 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.4 - 5.6 (#51)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

DUKE coming off BYE
NCST is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Duke -2 (SP+ DUKE -0)
Projected Score: NCST: 21 - DUKE: 23 (45)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
NCST Travel: 18 miles

Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 19 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NCST Players
DUKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

NC State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	NC State at UConn	-14.5	47.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	NC State vs Notre Dame	+7.0	49.5	L 24 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/16	NC State vs VMI	-42.5	51.0	W 45 - 7	O	N
Fri 9/22	NC State at Virginia	-8.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	N
Fri 9/29	NC State vs Louisville	+3.5	56.5	L 10 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/7	NC State vs Marshall	-6.5	44.0	W 48 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/14	NC State at Duke	+3.5	44.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	NC State vs Clemson	+9.5	44.5	W 24 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/4	NC State vs Miami	+6.5	44.0	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/11	NC State at Wake Forest	+0.5	42.5	W 26 - 6	U	Y
Sat 11/18	NC State at Virginia Tech	+2.5	40.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/25	NC State vs North Carolina	+2.0	55.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Thu 12/28	NC State vs Kansas State	+3.0	48.5	L 19 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for NC State's Schedule

Duke's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/4	Duke vs Clemson	+12.5	54.0	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Duke vs Lafayette	-42.5	49.0	W 42 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/16	Duke vs Northwestern	-17.0	48.0	W 38 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Duke at UConn	-22.0	45.0	W 41 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Duke vs Notre Dame	+5.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Duke vs NC State	-3.5	44.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Duke at Florida State	+14.0	49.0	L 20 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/28	Duke at Louisville	+5.0	47.0	L 0 - 23	U	N
Thu 11/2	Duke vs Wake Forest	-6.5	41.0	W 24 - 21	O	N
Sat 11/11	Duke at North Carolina	+9.5	52.5	L 45 - 47	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Duke at Virginia	-4.0	48.5	L 27 - 30	O	N
Sat 11/25	Duke vs Pittsburgh	-4.5	40.5	W 30 - 19	O	Y
Sat 12/23	Duke vs Troy	+7.0	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#89 (.15)	40% (100)	26.2	40% (96)	3.11 (68)	157	39% (96)	194	4.11 (47)	#16 (.1)	39% (34)	20.8	39% (34)	40% (40)	3.77 (66)	46.3	1.2	1.9
DUKE	#64 (.2)	42% (69)	26.9	42% (77)	3.1 (70)	167	42% (66)	181	4.27 (31)	#52 (.16)	43% (86)	19	43% (69)	44% (101)	3.47 (43)	46	1.2	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NCST	#26 (.25)	45% (36)		44% (68)	3.24 (36)	130	47% (20)	215	3.97 (61)	#86 (.19)	41% (59)		39% (31)	43% (87)	3.78 (67)	45	1.7	1.4
DUKE	#109 (.12)	39% (116)		35% (129)	2.47 (131)	89	42% (69)	226	3.7 (90)	#10 (.06)	38% (16)		41% (51)	34% (5)	3.19 (17)	48.9	1.4	2

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Offense	13	26.2	22.4	39.5%	4.11	1.2	19	350	157	194	4.3	52%	48%	40%	39%	18%	.15
DUKE Defense	13	19	13.1	43.3%	3.47	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	43%	44%	16%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NCST Defense	13	20.8	18.6	38.8%	3.77	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	44%	54%	39%	40%	19%	.1
DUKE Offense	13	26.9	28.6	42%	4.27	1.2	19	348	167	181	4.8	52%	47%	42%	42%	13%	.2

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
NC State	13	32:27	18.5	40%	60%	5.8	46.3	1.2	1.9	5.5	2.5	3	30.1
Duke	13	28:59	18.7	36%	60%	5.6	46	1.2	1.2	5.5	2.1	1	31.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Offense	13	52% (52)	40% (96)	36.8	156.6	4.3	19 (69)	.13 (83)	3.11 (68)	80% (20)	12% (106)	0.93 (100)
DUKE Defense	13	49% (53)	43% (69)	-	-	-	-	.11 (46)	3.18 (90)	68% (39)	10% (82)	0.96 (43)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NCST Defense	13	44% (11)	39% (34)	-	-	-	-	.12 (55)	2.88 (31)	66% (27)	11% (32)	1.07 (103)
DUKE Offense	13	52% (47)	42% (77)	34.5	166.8	4.8	26 (30)	.17 (56)	3.1 (70)	66% (114)	8% (20)	1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Offense	13	48% (80)	39% (96)	17.2	29.2	193.8	6.7	11.3	19 (78)	12 (85)	.2 (95)	1.6 (67)	34% (102)	27% (101)	.27 (90)	6% (72)	2 (92)
DUKE Defense	13	50% (83)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.22 (42)	1.4 (3)	31% (86)	31% (78)	.3 (64)	6% (56)	2 (56)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NCST Defense	13	54% (122)	40% (40)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.14 (15)	1.5 (28)	36% (17)	29% (50)	.2 (19)	7% (25)	1.9 (16)
DUKE Offense	13	47% (84)	42% (66)	15.4	27.5	180.8	6.6	11.8	14 (106)	8 (30)	.24 (79)	1.4 (122)	33% (88)	31% (65)	.4 (43)	6% (62)	2 (95)

NC State's Power Ratings
NC State's Power Rating: 5.66 #34
NC State's Offense Rating: 14.92 #83
NC State's Defense Rating: 3.52 #17
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
NC State's 2023 Expected Record: 7.40 - 5.60
NC State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.4 #30
NC State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.6 #69
NC State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.9 #16

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
NC State: 5.66 Duke: 9.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
NC State: 9.4 Duke: 9.5

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.37 #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55 #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88 #59
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3 #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

NC State Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 22.4
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.6

NC State's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Duke 23
NC State 21

Total Points: 45

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 27
NC State 21

Total Points: 47

Based on Entire Season
Duke 24
NC State 20

Total Points: 44

Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.1

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Duke	45	NC State	33	Duke -3	Duke	57.5	Over
2024	11/09	NC State	19	Duke	29	NC State -3.5	Duke	51.5	Under
2023	10/14	Duke	24	NC State	3	Duke -3.5	Duke	44.0	Under
2020	10/17	NC State	31	Duke	20	NC State -3.5	NC State	59.5	Under
2013	11/09	Duke	38	NC State	20	Duke -9	Duke	0
2009	10/10	NC State	28	Duke	49
2008	11/08	Duke	17	NC State	27
2003	10/25	Duke	21	NC State	28
2002	10/19	NC State	24	Duke	22
2001	11/03	Duke	31	NC State	55
2000	11/10	NC State	35	Duke	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Duke	5	4	1 Overs
NC State	6	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 5	4 - 1	4 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 6	1 - 4	0 - 0	1 - 4

(#34) NCST at (#40) DUKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NCST	DUKE
Power RatePwr	#34	#40
SP+SP+	#30	#29
Perf GradeGrade	#81	#61
OffenseOff	#110	#81
DefenseDef	#44	#43
Spec TeamsST	#57	#49
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#69

NC State on Offense


CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
Perf GradePerf	#110	#43
SuccessSuc	#100	#86
ExplosiveExp	#97	#12
PPAPPA	#89	#52
PowerPwr	#83	#59
SP+SP+	#69	#25
Pts POPPO	#47	#43
HavocHav	#97	#71

NC State Run Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
Run GameRun	#93	#71
Run SuccessRSuc	#96	#69
Run ExplRExp	#100	#43
PPAExp	#83	#46
Run BlockR Blk	#91	-
OL YdsOLY	#68	#90
Stuff RateStuff	#65	#65
TackleTak	-	#89

NC State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NCST Off	DUKE Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#26
Pass SuccessPSuc	#96	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#67	#3
PPAExp	#95	#42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#72	#51
F7 HavocF7	#106	#82
DB HavocDB	#72	#56

Duke on Offense


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
Perf GradePerf	#81	#44
SuccessSuc	#69	#34
ExplosiveExp	#93	#72
PPAPPA	#64	#16
PowerPwr	#48	#17
SP+SP+	#53	#16
Pts POPPO	#31	#66
HavocHav	#22	#22

Duke Run Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
Run GameRun	#61	#14
Run SuccessRSuc	#77	#34
Run ExplRExp	#30	#103
PPAExp	#56	#55
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#31
Stuff RateStuff	#99	#23
TackleTak	-	#10

Duke Pass Game


CategoryCat	DUKE Off	NCST Def
Pass GamePass	#64	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	#66	#40
Pass ExplPExl	#122	#28
PPAExp	#79	#15
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#62	#96
F7 HavocF7	#20	#32
DB HavocDB	#62	#25

Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

NCST 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'25 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 63°

Rematch from Week 7
Duke -3.5 (44.0)
Duke won vs NC State this year (24-3)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat NC State last year (29-19)
Duke beat NC State in 2023 (24-3)

NCST's OC Robert Anae (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	160	262	61%	1783	11	7	6.8
MJ Morris	63	113	56%	719	7	5	6.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brennan Armstrong (Tr)	143	665	7	4.7	43
Kevin Concepcion	41	320	0	7.8	65
Kendrick Raphael	67	311	1	4.6	31
Delbert Mimms III	96	282	8	2.9	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kevin Concepcion	71	839	10	11.8	72
Keyon Lesane	28	247	0	8.8	38
Dacari Collins (Tr)	14	210	2	15.0	38
Brad Rozner	18	208	2	11.6	21

View NC State's Full Roster

NCST's DC Tony Gibson (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Jaylon Scott	75	6	2	10	3
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5
Devan Boykin	54	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davin Vann	43	8	7	11	1
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Red Hibbler	12	6	6	3	1
Brandon Cleveland	28	5	3	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aydan White	37	2	1	0	10
Payton Wilson	138	18	6	10	6
Sean Brown	66	5	2	4	5

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Riley Leonard	95	165	58%	1102	3	3	6.7
Grayson Loftis	91	163	56%	1006	8	4	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Waters	153	819	12	5.4	83
Jaquez Moore	116	674	6	5.8	58
Riley Leonard	58	352	4	6.1	44
Jaylen Coleman	46	165	1	3.6	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Moore	62	835	8	13.5	49
Jalon Calhoun	50	666	4	13.3	69
Sahmir Hagans	30	260	0	8.7	23
Nicky Dalmolin	15	147	0	9.8	21

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tre Freeman	95	5	2	6	3
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6
Nick Morris Jr.	57	2	1	0	0
Dorian Mausi	56	4	1	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aeneas Peebles	42	9	5	4	2
R.J. Oben	15	6	5	5	1
Terry Moore	42	4	3	2	2
Brandon Johnson	49	8	2	3	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)	43	1	0	1	9
Chandler Rivers	47	3	0	1	7
Jaylen Stinson	79	3	1	0	6