Notre Dame at Duke - 2023 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo (#22)Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Duke Blue DevilsDuke logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -5.5 (52.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Notre Dame 21 - Duke: 14

 
Fighting Irish (10 - 3) (9 - 3 - 1)
Coach Marcus Freeman (13 - 5)
Avg Score : 39 - 16 (33 - 25 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10.3 - 2.7 (#10)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
DUKE is playing their 5th straight game
ND is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Notre Dame -10  (SP+ ND -9.5)
Projected Score: ND: 31 - DUKE: 21 (52)
ND Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
ND Travel: 556 miles
Blue Devils (8 - 5) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (12 - 4)
Avg Score : 27 - 19 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#61)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Notre Dame's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-20.549.0W 42 - 3UY
Sat 9/2 Notre Dame vs Tennessee State-48.555.0W 56 - 3OY
Sat 9/9 Notre Dame at NC State-7.049.5W 45 - 24OY
Sat 9/16 Notre Dame vs Central Michigan-34.551.5W 41 - 17ON
Sat 9/23 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+3.055.5L 14 - 17UY
Sat 9/30 Notre Dame at Duke-5.552.5W 21 - 14UY
Sat 10/7 Notre Dame at Louisville-6.553.0L 20 - 33UN
Sat 10/14 Notre Dame vs USC-3.061.0W 48 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh-21.045.5W 58 - 7OY
Sat 11/4 Notre Dame at Clemson-3.044.5L 23 - 31ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18 Notre Dame vs Wake Forest-22.547.5W 45 - 7OY
Sat 11/25 Notre Dame at Stanford-26.050.5W 56 - 23OY
Fri 12/29 Notre Dame vs Oregon State-5.540.5W 40 - 8OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Duke's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Mon 9/4 Duke vs Clemson+12.554.0W 28 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Duke vs Lafayette-42.549.0W 42 - 7UN
Sat 9/16 Duke vs Northwestern-17.048.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 9/23 Duke at UConn-22.045.0W 41 - 7OY
Sat 9/30 Duke vs Notre Dame+5.552.5L 14 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Duke vs NC State-3.544.0W 24 - 3UY
Sat 10/21 Duke at Florida State+14.049.0L 20 - 38ON
Sat 10/28 Duke at Louisville+5.047.0L 0 - 23UN
Thu 11/2 Duke vs Wake Forest-6.541.0W 24 - 21ON
Sat 11/11 Duke at North Carolina+9.552.5L 45 - 47OY
Sat 11/18 Duke at Virginia-4.048.5L 27 - 30ON
Sat 11/25 Duke vs Pittsburgh-4.540.5W 30 - 19OY
Sat 12/23 Duke vs Troy+7.044.0W 17 - 10UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.35)49% (9)39.251% (9)3.37 (15)18648% (19)2474.87 (7)#6 (.04)35% (7)15.937% (21)33% (3)2.97 (11)48.21.31.8
DUKE#64 (.2)42% (69)26.942% (77)3.1 (70)16742% (66)1814.27 (31)#52 (.16)43% (86)1943% (69)44% (101)3.47 (43)461.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense1339.23349.3%4.871.3214331862475.352%47%51%48%11%.35
DUKE Defense131913.143.3%3.471.2 - - - - - 49%50%43%44%16%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense1315.92534.6%2.971.8 - - - - - 50%49%37%33%18%.04
DUKE Offense1326.928.642%4.271.2193481671814.852%47%42%42%13%.2

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame1330:4820.945%59%5.448.21.31.84.81.9429.5
Duke1328:5918.736%60%5.6461.21.25.52.1131.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense1352% (45)51% (9)35.2186.35.328 (25).23 (27)3.37 (15)72% (83)7% (10)0.97 (86)
DUKE Defense1349% (53)43% (69) - - - - .11 (46)3.18 (90)68% (39)10% (82)0.96 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense1350% (61)37% (21) - - - - .07 (29)2.85 (26)67% (34)11% (50)1.05 (92)
DUKE Offense1352% (47)42% (77)34.5166.84.826 (30).17 (56)3.1 (70)66% (114)8% (20)1.08 (30)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense1347% (85)48% (19)17.527246.59.114.131 (14)9 (40).51 (8)1.8 (16)28% (10)37% (19).53 (14)4% (11)2.1 (60)
DUKE Defense1350% (83)44% (101) - - - - - - 10 (67).22 (42)1.4 (3)31% (86)31% (78).3 (64)6% (56)2 (56)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense1349% (67)33% (3) - - - - - - 16 (9).04 (2)1.5 (40)36% (14)25% (14).23 (26)7% (27)1.9 (20)
DUKE Offense1347% (84)42% (66)15.427.5180.86.611.814 (106)8 (30).24 (79)1.4 (122)33% (88)31% (65).4 (43)6% (62)2 (95)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 19.73  #6
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 25.62  #11
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: 1.24  #12
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 67%  #9
Notre Dame's 2023 Expected Record: 10.30 - 2.70
Notre Dame's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 19.1  #9
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.8  #17
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.4  #11

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.73   Duke: 9.37

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 19.1   Duke: 9.5




Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.37  #40
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.55  #48
Duke's Defense Rating: 8.88  #59
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #69
Duke's 2023 Expected Record: 7.00 - 6.00
Duke's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5  #29
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.6  #53
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.3  #25

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 39.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 15.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 25

Notre Dame's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 1
Record on Road: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 9 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 31
Duke 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Duke 29
Notre Dame 25

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 26
Duke 24

Total Points: 50
Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.6
Defense: 19 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.1

Duke's 2023 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202309/30Duke14Notre Dame21Notre Dame -5.5Notre Dame52.5Under
202009/12Notre Dame27Duke13Notre Dame -22.5Duke51.5Under
201911/09Duke7Notre Dame38Notre Dame -7Notre Dame50.5Under
201609/24Notre Dame35Duke38Notre Dame -20Duke60.5Over
200711/17Notre Dame28Duke7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Duke121 Overs
Notre Dame423 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 30 - 40 - 20 - 2
Road Teams3 - 24 - 02 - 02 - 0

(#6) ND at (#40) DUKE
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDDUKE
Power RatePwr #6 #40
SP+SP+ #9 #29
Perf GradeGrade #2 #61
OffenseOff #5 #81
DefenseDef #3 #43
Spec TeamsST #2 #49
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #9 #69
Notre Dame on Offense
CategoryCat
ND OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #5 #43
SuccessSuc #9 #86
ExplosiveExp #44 #12
PPAPPA #8 #52
PowerPwr #11 #59
SP+SP+ #17 #25
Pts POPPO #7 #43
HavocHav #7 #71
Notre Dame Run Game
CategoryCat
ND OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #15 #71
Run SuccessRSuc #9 #69
Run ExplRExp #86 #43
PPAExp #27 #46
Run BlockR Blk #30 -
OL YdsOLY #15 #90
Stuff RateStuff #36 #65
TackleTak -  #89
Notre Dame Pass Game
CategoryCat
ND OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #17 #26
Pass SuccessPSuc #19 #101
Pass ExplPExl #16 #3
PPAExp #8 #42
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #25 #51
F7 HavocF7 #10 #82
DB HavocDB #11 #56
Duke on Offense
CategoryCatDUKE OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #81 #3
SuccessSuc #69 #7
ExplosiveExp #93 #57
PPAPPA #64 #6
PowerPwr #48 #12
SP+SP+ #53 #11
Pts POPPO #31 #11
HavocHav #22 #32
Duke Run Game
CategoryCat
DUKE OffND Def
Run GameRun #61 #8
Run SuccessRSuc #77 #21
Run ExplRExp #30 #92
PPAExp #56 #29
Run BlockR Blk #78 -
OL YdsOLY #70 #26
Stuff RateStuff #99 #18
TackleTak -  #38
Duke Pass Game
CategoryCatDUKE OffND Def
Pass GamePass #64 #4
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #3
Pass ExplPExl #122 #40
PPAExp #79 #2
Pass Block/RushP Blk #62 #8
F7 HavocF7 #20 #50
DB HavocDB #62 #27
Program Comparison
DUKE 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average P4

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Wallace Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 67° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 5
Notre Dame 5.5 (52.5)
Notre Dame won at Duke this year (21-14)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Duke in 2023 (21-14)

  
ND's OC Gerad Parker (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Sam Hartman (Tr)19130164%26892488.9
Steven Angeli344477%5047111.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Audric Estime2101341186.480
Jeremiyah Love7138515.436
Jadarian Price4727235.854
Gi'Bran Payne4516823.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Chris Tyree26484318.676
Mitchell Evans29422114.636
Rico Flores27392114.560
Jordan Faison19322416.955

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JD Bertrand768375
Howard Cross III657242
Jack Kiser521131
Xavier Watts473103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Javontae Jean-Baptiste (Tr)4610581
Jordan Botelho295430
Marist Liufau426321
Nana Osafo-Mensah206320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Benjamin Morrison304009
JD Bertrand768375
Cam Hart192004

DUKE's OC Kevin Johns (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard9516558%1102336.7
Grayson Loftis9116356%1006846.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Waters153819125.483
Jaquez Moore11667465.858
Riley Leonard5835246.144
Jaylen Coleman4616513.615
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Moore62835813.549
Jalon Calhoun50666413.369
Sahmir Hagans3026008.723
Nicky Dalmolin1514709.821

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Tyler Santucci (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tre Freeman955263
Jaylen Stinson793106
Nick Morris Jr.572100
Dorian Mausi564112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aeneas Peebles429542
R.J. Oben156551
Terry Moore424322
Brandon Johnson498234
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Al Blades Jr. (Tr)431019
Chandler Rivers473017
Jaylen Stinson793106