Duke at California Game Matchup
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (12:00 AM EDT)
California Memorial Stadium - Berkeley, CA  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 26 - 25 (28 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.9 - 5.1 (#53)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 6) (Bad: 4)
DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
CAL is playing their 6th straight game
DUKE is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Duke -5.5   (SP+ DUKE -5)
Projected Score: DUKE: 28 - CAL: 23 (49)
DUKE Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
DUKE Travel: 2374 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 22 (31 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#96)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 5)
 
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 Duke vs Elon-29.5
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+5.5
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+0
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-2.5
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse+2
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-1
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+22
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.5
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-8.5
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-1.5
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-15.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 6, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/29 California at Oregon State+1.50.0
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-21.5
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+9.5
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-7.5
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+7
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+5.5
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina+1.5
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+10.5
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia-0.5
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+17
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-1
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)26.335% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)24.541% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)25.140% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)22.341% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
CAL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1326.328.438.6%3.71.416315892263.344%56%35%42%19%.12
CAL Defense1322.32140.4%3.231.7 - - - - - 47%53%41%40%18%.14
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1324.52637.6%3.192 - - - - - 52%48%41%34%23%.06
CAL Offense1325.130.941.5%3.070.8213811222593.641%58%40%43%18%.17

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1325:0516.329%38%5.148.91.428.53.2131.2
California1330:3620.737%44%7.459.70.81.75.42.5229.6
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1344% (110)35% (129)27.589.23.313 (105)-.07 (133)2.47 (131)78% (32)10% (78)0.74 (131)
CAL Defense1347% (28)41% (53) - - - - .08 (44)2.99 (65)86% (129)10% (72)0.91 (37)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1352% (81)41% (51) - - - - .06 (35)2.74 (28)59% (6)15% (2)0.91 (38)
CAL Offense1341% (121)40% (104)33.7122.23.617 (84).07 (99)2.68 (120)69% (98)13% (126)1.1 (22)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1356% (24)42% (69)19.632.5226.1711.526 (26)12 (85).28 (55)1.6 (56)32% (73)29% (98).3 (82)9% (129)2 (78)
CAL Defense1353% (103)40% (67) - - - - - - 17 (5).21 (52)1.7 (92)33% (44)30% (59).39 (102)8% (12)2.2 (111)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1348% (53)34% (5) - - - - - - 12 (39).06 (7)1.5 (39)34% (35)29% (41).27 (53)7% (28)2.1 (69)
CAL Offense1358% (14)43% (57)23.235.7258.67.311.116 (87)7 (26).25 (72)1.4 (126)36% (128)30% (85).36 (58)5% (23)2.2 (23)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.91 #47
Duke's Offense Rating: 12.74 #77
Duke's Defense Rating: 5.83 #21
2025 Talent Rating: 820.00 #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #41
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.91   California: 0.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.9   California: -0.3




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 0.28 #79
California's Offense Rating: 9.97 #93
California's Defense Rating: 14.11 #64
2025 Talent Rating: 754.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
California's 2025 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 826.12
Average Power Five Talent: 861.13
Average FBS Talent: 684.24


Duke Scoring
Offense: 26.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.4
Defense: 24.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 26

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 28
California 23

Projected Total Points: 49
California Scoring
Offense: 25.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.9
Defense: 22.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 21

California's 2025 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California000 Overs
Duke000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#47) Duke Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.91 #47
Offense Rating: 12.74 #77
Defense Rating: 5.83 #21
Overall SP+ Rating: 4.9 #41
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.0 #65
Defense SP+ Rating: 22.0 #33
Talent Rating: 820.00 #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #51
Expected Record: 6.9 - 5.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 56%, Run: 44%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Awful Run Success 35%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Duke Notes
(5/10) Pushed out LY QB Murphy (Oreg St) for Mensah
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
(3/21) WR rebuild, #3/4 back were productive
(3/21) OL 4/5 back, need to improve. Have size
(3/21) Def really good LY. New faces, look good TY
(3/21) DEs Williams/Anthony 12 sacks & 23 TFL.
(3/21) Diaz a good coach, great job LY w/ 9 Ws
Duke     Ratings Matchup     California
Power #47
#79
Off #77
#93
Def #21
#64
Talent #44
#57
SP+ #41
#65
SP+ Off #65
#79
SP+ Def #33
#51

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: DUKE | CAL
Depth Chart: DUKE | CAL
Rosters: DUKE | CAL
(#79) California Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 0.28 #79
Offense Rating: 9.97 #93
Defense Rating: 14.11 #64
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #65
Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #79
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.0 #51
Talent Rating: 754.00 #57
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #82
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 58%, Run: 41%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.07 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 40%
Great in Scoring Position 3.23 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


California Notes
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
(4/17) RB room decimated. 5 entered portal post spring
(4/17) TE Endries gone via portal post spring, big loss
(4/17) New OC Harsin a bad start, lead to portal mess
(4/4) Donors want Wilcox reporting to new GM Rivera
(3/21) QB Brown (OSU), Fr Sagapolutele huge add
(3/21) WR has pieces, talent. 5 portals past 2 yrs
(3/21) OL a huge issue LY. 2/5 back, 5 portal adds
(3/21) Def bad LY, replacing a lot. 6 portal adds
(3/21) DC Sirmon left for NFL.


  
Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)17226266%25142059.6
Henry Belin IV264558%243215.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Peyton Jones8231733.927
Anderson Castle (Tr)5024614.921
Darian Mensah (Tr)509111.822
Jaquez Moore328612.718
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Que'Sean Brown41445210.943
Sahmir Hagans4741338.865
Peyton Jones894111.840
Anderson Castle (Tr)138806.820

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver (Tr)863016
Terry Moore717105
Tre Freeman674132
Chandler Rivers548138
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Wesley Williams4713792
Vincent Anthony25105133
Aaron Hall439462
David Anderson132110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers548138
Caleb Weaver (Tr)863016
Terry Moore717105

California's OC Bryan Harsin
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
CJ Harris193161%184015.9
Devin Brown (Tr)112055%114105.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Brandon High9349585.366
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)7842535.440
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)7430354.135
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)1810105.643
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)36512314.243
Trond Grizzell27401114.951
Landon Morris (Tr)16251115.758
Dazmin James (Tr)3137145.794

View California's Full Roster
California's DC Vacant
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buom Jock (Tr)973023
Harrison Taggart (Tr)693143
Cade Uluave683152
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
Ryan McCulloch185381
Nathan Burrell295311
Serigne Tounkara52220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4800010
T.J. Bush (Tr)5810614
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)381004