Duke at California - 2025 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at California Golden BearsCalifornia logo
Saturday, October 4th 2025 (10:30 PM EDT)
Duke -3.5 (54.5) (-175)  Open: -1.5
Duke 45 - California: 21  (ACC)

 
Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 3)
DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
CAL is playing their 6th straight game
DUKE is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Duke -5.5  (SP+ DUKE -8)

Projected Score: DUKE: 30 - CAL: 24 (54)
DUKE Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 2374 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Golden Bears (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Justin Wilcox (42 - 49)
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (27 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.6 - 5.4 (#60)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 5, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 4, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
California's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 California at Oregon State+3.051.5W 34 - 15UY
Sat 9/6 California vs Texas Southern-44.554.5W 35 - 3UN
Sat 9/13 California vs Minnesota+3.041.5W 27 - 14UY
Sat 9/20 California at San Diego State-14.047.5L 0 - 34UN
Sat 9/27 California at Boston College+6.054.5W 28 - 24UY
Sat 10/4 California vs Duke+3.554.5L 21 - 45ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/17 California vs North Carolina-7.545.5W 21 - 18UN
Fri 10/24 California at Virginia Tech+6.550.5L 34 - 42ON
Sat 11/1 California vs Virginia+6.552.5L 21 - 31UN
Sat 11/8 California at Louisville+18.548.5W 29 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/22 California at Stanford-4.547.5L 10 - 31UN
Sat 11/29 California vs SMU+13.553.5W 38 - 35OY
Wed 12/24 California at Hawai'i+1.550.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 5, Bad 4, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for California's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#25 (.25)46% (30)34.645% (51)2.8 (99)13847% (20)2854.32 (26)#116 (.23)44% (98)29.443% (73)46% (119)4.39 (129)62.711.7
CAL#98 (.12)41% (95)25.338% (119)2.64 (120)8343% (57)2753.7 (66)#71 (.17)42% (79)27.247% (118)38% (34)3.69 (71)64.61.21.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
CAL#79 (.17)42% (88)40% (104)2.68 (120)12243% (57)2593.07 (125)#48 (.14)40% (52)41% (53)40% (67)3.23 (20)59.70.81.7



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1434.63746%4.321234241382854.344%55%45%47%15%.25
CAL Defense1327.224.342.3%3.691.1 - - - - - 46%51%47%38%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1429.427.543.8%4.391.7 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%17%.23
CAL Offense1325.327.240.6%3.71.220358832752.839%60%38%43%16%.12

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1429:4322.539%74%6.462.711.76.71.9331.3
California1330:1419.940%52%7.864.61.21.14.61.5027.1
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1444% (112)45% (51)32.4138.24.326 (60).08 (85)2.8 (99)69% (85)10% (79)0.97 (65)
CAL Defense1346% (27)47% (118) - - - - .21 (122)3.32 (129)85% (131)8% (116)0.98 (83)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1448% (49)43% (73) - - - - .1 (68)2.62 (19)73% (85)12% (15)1.03 (101)
CAL Offense1339% (131)38% (119)29.682.52.821 (78)-.04 (133)2.64 (120)70% (81)10% (74)0.89 (102)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1455% (21)47% (20)2436.1285.47.911.934 (14)6 (7).39 (24)1.6 (44)30% (39)33% (37).4 (30)6% (56)2.2 (13)
CAL Defense1351% (101)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (55).14 (23)1.4 (10)32% (64)26% (23).16 (15)7% (21)1.7 (9)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1450% (86)46% (119) - - - - - - 14 (22).41 (125)1.6 (107)32% (56)34% (123).44 (128)6% (86)2 (77)
CAL Offense1360% (6)43% (57)24.838.8275.37.111.120 (61)10 (119).23 (78)1.5 (108)32% (77)33% (32).36 (49)7% (105)1.9 (113)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.18  #42
Duke's Offense Rating: 21.58  #23
Duke's Defense Rating: 12.40  #57
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5%  #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #23
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #91

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.18   California: 1.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.8   California: -3.4




California's Power Ratings
California's Power Rating: 1.3  #63
California's Offense Rating: 14.12  #61
California's Defense Rating: 13.12  #63
2025 Talent Rating: 794.00  #55
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #88
California's 2025 Expected Record: 7.6 - 5.4
California's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #85
California's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.8  #87
California's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #75

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 30
California 24


Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
California 25
Duke 23

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
Duke 31
California 27

Total Points: 58
California Scoring
Offense: 25.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 27.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.3

California's 2025 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/04California21Duke45Duke -3.5Duke54.5Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
California001 Overs
Duke110 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 10 - 10 - 00 - 1
Road Teams1 - 01 - 01 - 00 - 0

(#42) DUKE at (#63) CAL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKECAL
Net PPPPPP #55 #93
Power RatePwr #42 #63
SP+SP+ #53 #85
Perf GradeGrade #37 #87
OffenseOff #16 #84
DefenseDef #99 #62
Spec TeamsST #40 #122
TalentTal #48 #55
Blue ChipsBC% #54 #88
Duke Notes
(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report
California Notes
(11/23) Wilcox fired, Rolovich interim HC for SMU finale
(10/22) QB JKS hurt shoulder in N Car game, monitor vs VT
(9/21) Crash down to earth 34-0 beatdown by SDSU
(9/21) 3 TOs, 6-17 3rd down, Run Off awful. Shocking L
(9/14) Sagapolutele incredible and entire Off so far
(8/31) QB Sagapolutele real deal, great in opener
(8/31) Def much improved? Great Run Def vs Oreg St
(8/18) QB1 Fr. Sagapolutele beat out Brown (OSU)
(6/4) RBs High (UTSA), Johnson (SMU), Raphel (NC St)
(6/4) OL bad LY. 2/5 back + 6 exp'd portal adds
(5/11) One of the most exp'd OLs, but 64% from portals
(4/18) Losses 4/5 QB, 11/19 WR, 10/13 RB, 4/5 OL
California Injury Report
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffCAL Def
PPPOffPPP #30 #101
Perf GradePerf #16 #62
SuccessSuc #30 #79
ExplosiveExp #30 #31
PPAPPA #25 #71
PowerPwr #23 #63
SP+SP+ #23 #75
Pts POPPO #26 #71
HavocHav #67 #80
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffCAL Def
Run GameRun #36 #128
Run SuccessRSuc #51 #118
Run ExplRExp #65 #83
PPAExp #85 #122
Run BlockR Blk #36 -
OL YdsOLY #99 #129
Stuff RateStuff #115 #134
TackleTak -  #109
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffCAL Def
Pass GamePass #13 #9
Pass SuccessPSuc #20 #34
Pass ExplPExl #44 #10
PPAExp #24 #23
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #24 #77
F7 HavocF7 #79 #116
DB HavocDB #56 #21
California on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffDUKE Def
PPPDefPPP #87 #81
Perf GradePerf #84 #99
SuccessSuc #95 #98
ExplosiveExp #65 #120
PPAPPA #98 #116
PowerPwr #61 #57
SP+SP+ #87 #91
Pts POPPO #66 #129
HavocHav #91 #36
California Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCat
CAL OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #124 #62
Run SuccessRSuc #119 #73
Run ExplRExp #102 #101
PPAExp #133 #68
Run BlockR Blk #119 -
OL YdsOLY #120 #19
Stuff RateStuff #58 #11
TackleTak -  #89
California Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 60%, Run: 39%
CategoryCatCAL OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #26 #105
Pass SuccessPSuc #57 #119
Pass ExplPExl #108 #107
PPAExp #78 #125
Pass Block/RushP Blk #82 #68
F7 HavocF7 #74 #15
DB HavocDB #105 #86
Program Comparison
CAL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in California Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 59° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 6
Duke 3.5 (54.5)
Duke won at California this year (45-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)33450067%39733467.9
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard2001132115.760
Anderson Castle (Tr)115488124.266
Jaquez Moore4120114.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)721106715.477
Que'Sean Brown63842513.469
Sahmir Hagans44512611.635
Jeremiah Hasley40454611.456

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Mergott918293
Caleb Weaver (Tr)896201
DaShawn Stone862013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)738123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall4411340
Wesley Williams4382161
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
Luke Mergott918293
Josiah Green (Tr)387423

CAL's OC Bryan Harsin (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Tr)31549164%34461897.0
Devin Brown (Tr)4757%48116.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Kendrick Raphael (Tr)233952134.133
LJ Johnson Jr. (Tr)3310823.312
Brandon High239814.322
Anthony League113813.58
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jacob De Jesus (Tr)107102269.641
Trond Grizzell55788114.335
Mason Mini (Tr)35387411.151
Quaron Adams (Tr)20273113.739

View California's Full Roster

CAL's DC Vacant (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cade Uluave9712344
Luke Ferrelli915111
Dru Polidore623003
Aidan Keanaaina563200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
T.J. Bush (Tr)3911541
Cade Uluave9712344
Chris Victor (Tr)245340
Jayden Wayne (Tr)265350
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4210013
Hezekiah Masses (Tr)4710012
Derek Wilkins120018