Duke at UConn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at UConn HuskiesUConn logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (12:00 AM EST)
Rentschler Field - East Hartford, CT

 
Blue Devils (1 - 2) (0 - 3 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 30 - 32 (27 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.3 - 6.7 (#95)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 5) (Avg: 4) (Bad: 0)
DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
CONN 2nd straight Home Game
CONN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UConn -1   (SP+ DUKE -1.5)

Projected Score: DUKE: 33 - CONN: 34 (66)
CONN Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
DUKE Travel: 523 miles
Huskies (1 - 2) (1 - 1 - 1)
Coach Jim L. Mora (17 - 20)
Avg Score : 40 - 28 (59 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.9 - 4.1 (#43)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.559.5
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse+3.5
Sat 10/4 Duke at California+5.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech+4.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+13
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn+1
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia+1
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-1
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-5.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 5, Avg 5, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 5, Avg 4, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
UConn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UConn vs Central Connecticut-29.551.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 UConn at Syracuse+7.057.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 UConn at Delaware-8.552.5L 41 - 44ON
Sat 9/20 UConn vs Ball State-21.052.5
Sat 9/27 UConn at Buffalo-6
Sat 10/4 UConn vs Florida International-14
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 UConn at Boston College+6.5
Sat 10/25 UConn at Rice-11.5
Sat 11/1 UConn vs UAB-20.5
Sat 11/8 UConn vs Duke-1
Sat 11/15 UConn vs Air Force-18.5
Sat 11/22 UConn at Florida Atlantic-9.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for UConn's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#40 (.31)47% (43)30.343% (79)3.15 (50)12749% (37)3533.54 (95)#112 (.25)38% (64)3233% (25)45% (102)5.33 (128)56.32.30.3
CONN#24 (.37)48% (39)4046% (57)1.8 (135)14550% (32)2214.46 (47)#54 (.09)42% (79)2846% (101)38% (60)2.36 (29)36.700.7
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
CONN#67 (.19)42% (82)43% (82)3.07 (58)18440% (84)1874.09 (51)#25 (.1)39% (37)42% (63)37% (23)3.36 (26)50.41.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense330.32747.1%3.542.3244791273535.237%63%43%49%13%.31
CONN Defense3281341.6%2.360.7 - - - - - 42%58%46%38%20%.09
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense3323438.4%5.330.3 - - - - - 57%43%33%45%17%.25
CONN Offense3405948.2%4.460153661452216.745%55%46%50%15%.37

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke325:5223.745%40%656.32.30.392.7127.2
UConn320:2015.348%40%436.700.74.71.3027.7
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense337% (130)43% (79)24.3126.75.22 (109).03 (101)3.15 (50)83% (28)9% (71)0.83 (99)
CONN Defense342% (20)46% (101) - - - - -.08 (26)1.91 (7)38% (4)11% (54)0.7 (16)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense357% (115)33% (25) - - - - .08 (73)2.26 (25)50% (19)15% (19)1.39 (128)
CONN Offense345% (98)46% (57)21.71456.75 (62).34 (24)1.8 (135)71% (67)7% (38)1.3 (19)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense363% (5)49% (37)27.341.3352.78.512.98 (18)2 (60).47 (30)1.6 (52)31% (76)42% (23).51 (38)4% (44)1.9 (86)
CONN Defense358% (120)38% (60) - - - - - - 1 (87).22 (69)1.5 (73)27% (125)33% (95).59 (123)9% (12)2.1 (77)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense343% (24)45% (102) - - - - - - 0.47 (117)1.7 (108)35% (51)30% (79).41 (100)3% (128)2.1 (87)
CONN Offense355% (35)50% (32)17.327.3220.78.112.75 (54)0 (1).4 (46)1.3 (115)33% (97)24% (111).24 (90)8% (119)2 (63)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 9.28 #55
Duke's Offense Rating: 14.90 #54
Duke's Defense Rating: 5.62 #61
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #65
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #74
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #62

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 9.28   UConn: 6.09

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 1.4   UConn: -0.3




UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 6.09 #63
UConn's Offense Rating: 16.24 #44
UConn's Defense Rating: 8.76 #76
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
UConn's 2025 Expected Record: 7.9 - 4.1
UConn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #57
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 833
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.85


Duke Scoring
Offense: 30.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 27
Defense: 32 PPG
Defense on Road: 34

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
UConn 34
Duke 33


Total Points: 66

UConn Scoring
Offense: 40 PPG
Offense at Home: 59
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

UConn's 2025 Record
Record: 1 - 2
Record vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record at home: 1 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Duke26UConn21DukeDuke -17.5UConn46.5Over
202309/23UConn7Duke41DukeDuke -22Duke45.0Over
200709/01Duke14UConn45UConn
200409/11UConn22Duke20UConn
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UConn212 Overs
Duke210 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 20 - 20 - 10 - 1
Road Teams2 - 22 - 01 - 01 - 0

(#55) Duke Info
Power Rating: 9.28 #55
Offense Rating: 14.90 #54
Defense Rating: 5.62 #61
Overall SP+ Rating: 1.4 #65
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #74
Defense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #62
Talent Rating: 816.00 #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5% #54
Expected Record: 5.3 - 6.7

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
Good Offense Success Rate of 47%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.54 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Good Pass Success 49%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 38%
Awful in Scoring Position 5.33 PPO
Good Run Def Success 33%
Poor Pass Def Success 45%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Duke has lost 7 straight
Duke has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 1 (0 - 1 - 0 vs Spread )

Duke Notes
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
(3/21) WR rebuild, #3/4 back were productive
(3/21) OL 4/5 back, need to improve. Have size
(3/21) Def really good LY. New faces, look good TY

Duke Highlights
Duke offense is good on 3rd downs
Duke has a good run defense (#25)
Duke Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#8)
Duke Defensive Line is very good (#25)
Duke Front 7 is disruptive (#19)
Duke defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#)

Duke Deficiencies
Duke has a bad TO Margin (#125)
Duke Fumbles a Lot (#136)
Duke Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Duke gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#126)
Duke has a bad red zone defense (#128)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatCONNDUKE
OverallOver#22#28
OffenseOff#16#21
DefenseDef#49#53
Special TeamsST#47#21
PassingPass#21#5
RushingRush#37#28
Run BlockRBLK#7#29
Pass BlockPBLK#36#43
Route RunningWR Rt#51#40
TacklingTkl#30#80
Run DefenseR Def#40#16
Pass Rush DefPRush#29#38
Coverage DefCov#78#105

Previous Matchups
Duke beat UConn last year (26-21)
Duke beat UConn in 2023 (41-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: DUKE | CONN
Depth Chart: DUKE | CONN
Rosters: DUKE | CONN
(#63) UConn Info
Power Rating: 6.09 #63
Offense Rating: 16.24 #44
Defense Rating: 8.76 #76
Overall SP+ Rating: -0.3 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.0 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Talent Rating: 594.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #65
Expected Record: 7.9 - 4.1

Team Profile
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
Good Offense Success Rate of 48%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.46 PPO
Avg Run Success 46%
Good Pass Success 50%
Good OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Good in Scoring Position 2.36 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Avg Pass Def Success 38%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Poor Field Position

UConn has lost 8 straight
UConn has lost 3 straight at Home
Record at home: 1 - 0 (1 - 0 - 0 vs Spread)

UConn Notes
(9/1) Fagano good, Off 600+ yds vs FCS. Good start
(3/21) QB Evers started last 1/2 LY. JAG
(3/21) RB Edwards back, Brown good depth
(3/21) WR Sheffield/Bell good combo. Added depth
(3/21) Def OK LY, considering. 12 portal adds.
(3/21) HC Mora great job LY. Tough job, doing well

UConn Highlights
UConn is Undefeated at Home
UConn is Undefeated vs Spread at Home

UConn offense is good on 3rd downs
UConn defense is really good in red zone (#29)
UConn Defensive Line is very good (#7)
UConn Secondary is very good (#12)
UConn has a great TO Margin (#1)
UConn commits very few Penalties (#25)

UConn Deficiencies


  
Duke's OC Jonathan Brewer
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)8011967%1036828.7
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard1512708.535
Jaquez Moore2411514.832
Anderson Castle (Tr)10101010.163
Peyton Jones103413.48
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)14272019.446
Que'Sean Brown13191014.744
Andrel Anthony Jr.10121312.135
Sahmir Hagans9116312.929

View Duke's Full Roster
Duke's DC Jonathan Patke
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DaShawn Stone201000
Caleb Weaver (Tr)191001
Jaiden Francois (Tr)181100
Nick Morris Jr.174020
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony126511
Josiah Green (Tr)32100
Kendall Johnson163110
Tre Freeman133110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers102012
Vincent Anthony126511
Luke Mergott41001

UConn's OC Gordon Sammis
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joe Fagnano7010666%865508.2
Nick Evers81173%83107.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Camryn Edwards5030636.173
Jayden Brown1615919.949
Victor Rosa880210.031
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman53607.29
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Skyler Bell22332215.180
Reymello Murphy (Tr)11128211.627
Louis Hansen887010.919
John Neider563012.629

View UConn's Full Roster
UConn's DC Matt Brock
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryun Parham (Tr)247500
Oumar Diomande213110
Tyquan King (Tr)193201
Cam Chadwick171001
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryun Parham (Tr)247500
Tyquan King (Tr)193201
Donovan Branch101120
Oumar Diomande213110
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Mon Brinson151004
Tyrece Mills (Tr)122013
Lee Molette III120002