Duke at UConn - 2025 Matchup Preview
Duke logo Duke Blue Devils at UConn HuskiesUConn logo
Saturday, November 8th 2025 (3:30 PM EST)
Duke -7.5 (63.5) (-310)  Open: -10.5
UConn 37 - Duke: 34

 
Blue Devils (9 - 5) (7 - 7 - 0)
Coach Manny Diaz (9 - 3)
Avg Score : 35 - 29 (37 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.5 - 5.5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
DUKE 2nd straight Road Game
CONN 2nd straight Home Game
CONN is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UConn -0  (SP+ CONN -2)

Projected Score: DUKE: 32 - CONN: 32 (63)
DUKE Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
DUKE Travel: 523 miles
Huskies (9 - 4) (6 - 5 - 2)
Coach Jim L. Mora (17 - 20)
Avg Score : 35 - 27 (40 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.7 - 3.3 (#23)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Duke's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/28 Duke vs Elon-36.551.5W 45 - 17ON
Sat 9/6 Duke vs Illinois+2.549.0L 19 - 45ON
Sat 9/13 Duke at Tulane+1.552.5L 27 - 34ON
Sat 9/20 Duke vs NC State-3.057.5W 45 - 33OY
Sat 9/27 Duke at Syracuse-4.059.5W 38 - 3UY
Sat 10/4 Duke at California-3.554.5W 45 - 21OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 Duke vs Georgia Tech-3.560.5L 18 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/1 Duke at Clemson+4.555.5W 46 - 45OY
Sat 11/8 Duke at UConn-7.563.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/15 Duke vs Virginia-5.559.5L 17 - 34UN
Sat 11/22 Duke at North Carolina-6.550.5W 32 - 25OY
Sat 11/29 Duke vs Wake Forest-2.554.0W 49 - 32OY
Sat 12/6 Duke vs Virginia+3.558.5W 27 - 20UY
Wed 12/31 Duke vs Arizona State-4.049.5W 42 - 39ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Duke's Schedule
UConn's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30 UConn vs Central Connecticut-29.551.5W 59 - 13OY
Sat 9/6 UConn at Syracuse+7.057.5L 20 - 27UY
Sat 9/13 UConn at Delaware-8.552.5L 41 - 44ON
Sat 9/20 UConn vs Ball State-21.053.5W 31 - 25ON
Sat 9/27 UConn at Buffalo-3.051.5W 20 - 17UN
Sat 10/4 UConn vs Florida International-7.052.5W 51 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/18 UConn at Boston College-2.558.5W 38 - 23OY
Sat 10/25 UConn at Rice-10.548.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 11/1 UConn vs UAB-10.061.5W 38 - 19UY
Sat 11/8 UConn vs Duke+7.563.5W 37 - 34OY
Sat 11/15 UConn vs Air Force-7.564.5W 26 - 16UY
Sat 11/22 UConn at Florida Atlantic-6.064.0W 48 - 45ON
Sat 12/27 UConn vs Army+5.541.5L 16 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2

Predictions for UConn's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#26 (.25)46% (32)34.644% (61)2.77 (105)12347% (22)2624.28 (28)#120 (.25)44% (99)29.443% (80)46% (116)4.45 (129)58.40.91.5
CONN#13 (.31)46% (29)35.346% (46)2.93 (70)15147% (25)2774.58 (16)#112 (.22)47% (126)2750% (133)43% (89)3.8 (81)45.50.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
DUKE#109 (.12)39% (116)35% (129)2.47 (131)8942% (69)2263.7 (90)#10 (.06)38% (16)41% (51)34% (5)3.19 (17)48.91.42
CONN#67 (.19)42% (82)43% (82)3.07 (58)18440% (84)1874.09 (51)#25 (.1)39% (37)42% (63)37% (23)3.36 (26)50.41.21.1



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Offense1434.63745.6%4.280.9213851232624.145%54%44%47%15%.25
CONN Defense132719.546.6%3.81.2 - - - - - 55%44%50%43%15%.22
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
DUKE Defense1429.427.543.9%4.451.5 - - - - - 48%50%43%46%18%.25
CONN Offense1335.340.346%4.580.2204281512775.345%54%46%47%12%.31

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Duke1427:2020.839%76%658.40.91.56.31.9331
UConn1327:0020.142%72%4.545.50.21.25.82.6030.4
Run Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Offense1445% (109)44% (61)29.9123.14.124 (60).07 (93)2.77 (105)70% (83)10% (89)0.96 (67)
CONN Defense1355% (121)50% (133) - - - - .21 (123)3.37 (132)67% (33)10% (68)0.95 (68)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
DUKE Defense1448% (48)43% (80) - - - - .12 (86)2.73 (36)76% (104)12% (15)1.03 (100)
CONN Offense1345% (111)46% (46)28.6150.65.324 (36).21 (28)2.93 (70)82% (9)6% (3)1.04 (39)

Pass Game Stats (2025)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Offense1454% (23)47% (22)21.932.52628.11230 (14)5 (7).42 (21)1.6 (36)30% (52)34% (26).43 (24)5% (39)2.2 (20)
CONN Defense1344% (18)43% (89) - - - - - - 11 (55).28 (85)1.6 (69)26% (132)33% (116).4 (115)5% (95)2 (80)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
DUKE Defense1450% (87)46% (116) - - - - - - 13 (22).41 (124)1.7 (111)32% (54)34% (122).46 (130)6% (70)2.1 (91)
CONN Offense1354% (25)47% (25)22.833.4277.48.312.230 (14)1 (1).44 (14)1.6 (51)32% (74)29% (84).48 (14)6% (59)2.5 (1)

Duke's Power Ratings
Duke's Power Rating: 6.96  #50
Duke's Offense Rating: 18.47  #22
Duke's Defense Rating: 11.51  #88
2025 Talent Rating: 816.00  #48
Blue Chip Ratio: 5%  #54
Duke's 2025 Expected Record: 8.5 - 5.5
Duke's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.8  #53
Duke's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.0  #23
Duke's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4  #91

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 852.82
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Duke: 6.96   UConn: 6.04

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Duke: 4.8   UConn: 6.7




UConn's Power Ratings
UConn's Power Rating: 6.04  #70
UConn's Offense Rating: 17.68  #25
UConn's Defense Rating: 17.30  #120
2025 Talent Rating: 594.00  #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 3  #65
UConn's 2025 Expected Record: 9.7 - 3.3
UConn's 2025 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.7  #45
UConn's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #31
UConn's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.3  #71

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 827
Average Power Five Talent: 877.82
Average FBS Talent: 715.76


Duke Scoring
Offense: 34.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 29.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.5

Duke's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 10 - 4
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Duke 32
UConn 32


Total Points: 63

Based on Last 4 Games
UConn 33
Duke 29

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
UConn 33
Duke 30

Total Points: 63
UConn Scoring
Offense: 35.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 40.3
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

UConn's 2025 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 2
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 6 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08UConn37Duke34Duke -7.5UConn63.5Over
202409/14Duke26UConn21Duke -17.5UConn46.5Over
202309/23UConn7Duke41Duke -22Duke45.0Over
200709/01Duke14UConn45
200409/11UConn22Duke20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
UConn323 Overs
Duke210 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 21 - 20 - 11 - 1
Road Teams2 - 32 - 11 - 11 - 0

(#50) DUKE at (#70) CONN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatDUKECONN
Power RatePwr #50 #70
SP+SP+ #53 #45
Perf GradeGrade #32 #33
OffenseOff #9 #12
DefenseDef #103 #98
Spec TeamsST #26 #84
TalentTal #48 #95
Blue ChipsBC% #54 #65
Duke Notes
(11/16) Duke just isn't good. 1-3 run, need 1 more to bowl
(11/2) Wild W over Clemson, 6.1% post game win exp!
(10/18) Mistakes killing Duke, Outplayed GT but Run Off bad
(9/20) Great W vs NC St, Mensah better, Def got 4 TOs
(8/16) QB Mensah feels slept on, kid is really dynamic
(7/27) S T Moore & C Weaver the top duo in ACC
(6/6) Secondary a top ACC unit, should be strength
(5/23) Duke was 6-1 in 1 score games LY
(5/2) CB Chandler Rivers/ S Terry Moore top 10 via PFF
(4/4) OT Brian Parker II a top OT via PFF
(3/22) QB Mensah a big portal+ from Tulane
(3/21) RB #1 left (Tenn). Some depth, Castle (App St)
Duke Injury Report
UConn Notes
(12/6) Hires Jason Candle (Toledo HC), Mora to Col St
(10/25) Bad L vs Rice, Def mauled for 300 yds rushing
(10/18) Great W at BC, QB Fagano balled out, 5-2 and rolling
(9/1) Fagano good, Off 600+ yds vs FCS. Good start
(3/21) QB Evers started last 1/2 LY. JAG
(3/21) RB Edwards back, Brown good depth
(3/21) WR Sheffield/Bell good combo. Added depth
(3/21) Def OK LY, considering. 12 portal adds.
(3/21) HC Mora great job LY. Tough job, doing well
UConn Injury Report
Duke on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffCONN Def
Perf GradePerf #9 #98
SuccessSuc #32 #126
ExplosiveExp #25 #40
PPAPPA #26 #112
PowerPwr #22 #120
SP+SP+ #23 #71
Pts POPPO #28 #81
HavocHav #65 #89
Duke Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffCONN Def
Run GameRun #47 #113
Run SuccessRSuc #61 #133
Run ExplRExp #67 #68
PPAExp #93 #123
Run BlockR Blk #21 -
OL YdsOLY #105 #132
Stuff RateStuff #113 #135
TackleTak -  #109
Duke Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
DUKE OffCONN Def
Pass GamePass #6 #68
Pass SuccessPSuc #22 #89
Pass ExplPExl #36 #69
PPAExp #21 #85
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #29 #87
F7 HavocF7 #89 #68
DB HavocDB #39 #95
UConn on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatCONN OffDUKE Def
Perf GradePerf #12 #103
SuccessSuc #29 #99
ExplosiveExp #27 #118
PPAPPA #13 #120
PowerPwr #25 #88
SP+SP+ #31 #91
Pts POPPO #16 #129
HavocHav #13 #28
UConn Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCat
CONN OffDUKE Def
Run GameRun #45 #60
Run SuccessRSuc #46 #80
Run ExplRExp #39 #100
PPAExp #28 #86
Run BlockR Blk #5 -
OL YdsOLY #70 #36
Stuff RateStuff #39 #13
TackleTak -  #88
UConn Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 44%
CategoryCatCONN OffDUKE Def
Pass GamePass #15 #114
Pass SuccessPSuc #25 #116
Pass ExplPExl #51 #111
PPAExp #14 #124
Pass Block/RushP Blk #71 #56
F7 HavocF7 #3 #15
DB HavocDB #59 #70
Program Comparison
CONN 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

DUKE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rentschler Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 59° - Wind: 6 mph
Rematch from Week 11
Duke 7.5 (63.5)
UConn won vs Duke this year (37-34)

Previous Matchups
Duke beat UConn last year (26-21)
Duke beat UConn in 2023 (41-7)

  
DUKE's OC Jonathan Brewer (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah (Tr)30544968%36463058.1
Henry Belin IV2540%22004.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Sheppard178962105.449
Anderson Castle (Tr)110470114.366
Jaquez Moore3919214.932
Travis Bates95706.339
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cooper Barkate (Tr)681069615.777
Que'Sean Brown53664312.544
Sahmir Hagans38467612.335
Jeremiah Hasley34404511.956

View Duke's Full Roster

DUKE's DC Jonathan Patke (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Weaver (Tr)815201
Luke Mergott817283
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Vincent Anthony3413742
Josiah Green (Tr)387423
Aaron Hall3910340
Elliott Schaper162200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chandler Rivers594018
DaShawn Stone771013
Jaiden Francois (Tr)708123

CONN's OC Gordon Sammis (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joe Fagnano28441269%34412818.4
Ksaan Farrar111861%84004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Camryn Edwards2101240155.973
Jayden Brown3226228.249
Victor Rosa3015525.231
Oliver Lundberg-Coleman2313816.017
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Skyler Bell10112761312.680
Reymello Murphy (Tr)39446311.461
John Neider27422215.645
Javonte Vereen (Tr)21305514.550

View UConn's Full Roster

CONN's DC Matt Brock (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryun Parham (Tr)125151011
Oumar Diomande1168551
Malachi McLean792112
Cam Chadwick663124
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryun Parham (Tr)125151011
Oumar Diomande1168551
Donovan Branch305471
Tyquan King (Tr)414322
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
D'Mon Brinson597006
Tyrece Mills (Tr)252015
Cam Chadwick663124